20th AFL Team

[qlderlions]

However adding a second Brisbane side in the next 5-8 years would just be way too soon, it would be supported about the same as GWS if not worse. It would sink both Lions and Suns crowds and splinter support in three different directions, and there's just not that large of an afl fanbase in SEQ for that right now.

Don't agree - If you base the training base on the northern Brisbane/Moreton Bay Suburbs there will be zero impact on the Suns. See my couple of sentences around the limitation of the GC Suns into the Brisbane Suburbs. The number of ex-Victorians here is massive and largely unable to go to the football for the next 5 years - you will have a substantial turn-out to Carlton, Richmond, Collingwood and Essendon games.

With a 63,000 stadium and two qld teams, you could see Lions averaging 45k off the bat in 2032/2033 fairly easily and Suns taking a couple games there too, averaging 20k+ overall. However with 3 teams and 2 of them playing full time at victoria park, means Lions will average 35-40k in a 63k stadium at best, Suns back to 15k, and the new team will struggle to get 15k in a 63k stadium. We have that data to back that up when GWS entered swans took almost a 10k hit to crowds, and only in the last few years now back and ahead of where they were 14 years ago.

I think this is very pessimistic - Lions averaging 31k for even the smallest clubs, 36k for finals. 45k is not much growth considering the boom in participation and migration of ex-Victorians to this state. If we staged the Collingwood game at Victoria Park we would go close to a sellout right now. See comment above - Suns are averaging 16k now in a 23k stadium and won't be affected due to the distance. Geographically there is less overlap of AFL support in SEQ (more geographically dispersed) compared to Sydney where the AFL support is heavily weighted to NB, Eastern Suburbs and Inner West.

The best way forward for QLD is when Lions are averaging close to 50k in the new stadium, Suns are selling out every game, then can start to plan for a 3rd qld team. Hence look at WA, they already are filling out a 60,000 stadium even with one of their teams being a perrenial cellar dweller. They have the support base to sustain a 3rd team and are also growing population. Not as great an opportunity as Brisbane2, but you can't just throw a team there before its ready.

I think you will find that will be the status quo in 2032 of lions close to 50k and suns at capacity. Will only take growth of 14k for the Lions and Suns 7k. I would argue that 70% of that growth is already there for the Lions but constrained by stadium capacity. The lead time for a team is 5 years, so to service that need the process will need to be commenced in 2027.

As someone that has split their time equally living in WA, QLD and Victoria over the last 25 years I think you are overestimating the WA support. There is about 1/3 of the population that are of Eastern States, NZ, South Africa and UK origin that are anti AFL. It doesn't have the same cultural depth of SA and Victoria. The ownership structure of football in WA will prevent this happening (a third team is a direct financial hit to the WA Football Commission) whereas the Lions are their own member owned Entity and Gold Coast are AFL owned.

Also according to AFL tables the two WA sides are not meeting your Crowd KPI for the lions (50k) in the new 63k stadium:

• West Coast 2023-2025 (42k to 43k average), when west coast were at their peak (2018-2019) they averaged 53k
• Fremantle 2024-2025 (45k to 46k average) in 2018-2019 Fremantle were only averaging 40k-41k in a 60k seat stadium.

 

[RedV3x]

As someone that has split their time equally living in WA, QLD and Victoria over the last 25 years I think you are overestimating the WA support.

Currently there is zero support for Pth3. ATM it's all theory about potential support.
If you take the population of Perth and divide it by three there is ample room for Pth3.
If you take the population of Perth and take away current AFL support there is very little room for Pth3.

There is about 1/3 of the population that are of Eastern States, NZ, South Africa and UK origin that are anti AFL.

No foundation in your statement there.
I'd say there is a significant proportion of the W.A. population that are indifferent to AFL. Indifference can change.

It doesn't have the same cultural depth of SA and Victoria.

No foundation in your statement there.
I'd say there is a significant proportion of the S.A. and Victorian population that are indifferent to AFL.

The ownership structure of football in WA will prevent this happening

The ownership structure of football in WA will need negotiations if Pth3 is to proceed.

 

[hampton]

Don't agree - If you base the training base on the northern Brisbane/Moreton Bay Suburbs there will be zero impact on the Suns. See my couple of sentences around the limitation of the GC Suns into the Brisbane Suburbs. The number of ex-Victorians here is massive and largely unable to go to the football for the next 5 years - you will have a substantial turn-out to Carlton, Richmond, Collingwood and Essendon games.

I think this is very pessimistic - Lions averaging 31k for even the smallest clubs, 36k for finals. 45k is not much growth considering the boom in participation and migration of ex-Victorians to this state. If we staged the Collingwood game at Victoria Park we would go close to a sellout right now. See comment above - Suns are averaging 16k now in a 23k stadium and won't be affected due to the distance. Geographically there is less overlap of AFL support in SEQ (more geographically dispersed) compared to Sydney where the AFL support is heavily weighted to NB, Eastern Suburbs and Inner West.

I think you will find that will be the status quo in 2032 of lions close to 50k and suns at capacity. Will only take growth of 14k for the Lions and Suns 7k. I would argue that 70% of that growth is already there for the Lions but constrained by stadium capacity. The lead time for a team is 5 years, so to service that need the process will need to be commenced in 2027.

As someone that has split their time equally living in WA, QLD and Victoria over the last 25 years I think you are overestimating the WA support. There is about 1/3 of the population that are of Eastern States, NZ, South Africa and UK origin that are anti AFL. It doesn't have the same cultural depth of SA and Victoria. The ownership structure of football in WA will prevent this happening (a third team is a direct financial hit to the WA Football Commission) whereas the Lions are their own member owned Entity and Gold Coast are AFL owned.

Also according to AFL tables the two WA sides are not meeting your Crowd KPI for the lions (50k) in the new 63k stadium:

• West Coast 2023-2025 (42k to 43k average), when west coast were at their peak (2018-2019) they averaged 53k
• Fremantle 2024-2025 (45k to 46k average) in 2018-2019 Fremantle were only averaging 40k-41k in a 60k seat stadium.

The thing is Brisbane Lions are coming off the back of two premiership wins with a crowd average of 31k. In a normal scenario they might not be winning the comp every year and this will affect their crowd numbers, as it has in the past. However I do think AFL won't let the lions success falter so that might be a moot point.

If 30k is their status quo crowd, they'll get 5-10k extra just off the new stadium alone which will bump them up to 40k average. 45k average crowd seems on the high side but with growth they could get close in 2032. Can't see 50k average crowds for the lions any time in the next decade.

A new Brisbane club around the same timeframe as the lions moving to Vic Park would see this 40-45k average fall to 35k for sure. And the new club would be lucky to get 15k average.

I still think it's possible AFL could decide to move forward with brisbane2 as team 20, the carrot being too juicy for them to resist. I just think it'll be another GWS situation in brisbane for the forseeable future.

If it were me I'd wait till the new stadium is operational and see how the Lions go in the first couple seasons there, and then make a plan in 2034 for a second brisbane team closer to 2040 if all going well (team 21)

 

[Canberra Pear]

It's all about the Victoria Park Stadium 63,000 seat capacity in the heart of Brisbane. The AFL would be keen to use it most weeks .

So still no examples of the AFL alluding to the second Brisbane team?

Zooming into the SEQ debate above, I think the push for a Second Brisbane is coming from a number of fronts:
- No Stadium Debate required for the new team (don't underestimate the executive focus that has consumed AFL house over the Tasmania debate (and Victoria Park Stadium before that)). Manuka will start this conversation all over again....with both the ACT government and the Feds.

The ACT Government is already looking to upgrade Manuka without the AFL. They're upgrading it for cricket.

- The population growth of Queensland is extremely rapid in comparison to Canberra, if you look at the table and graph below, within 10 years there will be 4 cities in SEQ outside of Brisbane/Gold Coast (SC, Logan, Ipswich, Moreton Bay) each the same size as Canberra or larger and growing at faster (%) rates. Looking at the AFL landscape in South East QLD, Lions supporters are concentrated in Brisbane LGA. Moreton Bay Regional Council is underserved and the same size as Canberra and growing more rapidly. Logan/Ipswich are more Rugby League focused than the more diverse Moreton Bay region with some areas of good AFL penetration and some areas like Caboolture that are Rugby League focused. Sunshine Coast has a large AFL following (and participation) on par with Rugby League.

I appreciate all the work you put into this, but you have to be cautious pulling out a single year as an indicator of Canberra growth.

I've mentioned this previously, but the ABS notoriously underestimates the ACT's projections. It's actually been a real issue (it means we get underpaid our GST share). Our chief minister has kicked up a stink about it a lot. For instance, we grew 57% faster than our last projections between censuses.

We've been the fastest growing state/territory for the past two censuses, but the data between the censuses always had us growing slower. But the longer term projections show Canberra growing just as quickly (if not quicker). For instance - the ABS projections to 2071 have Queensland growing 76% and Canberra growing 105% in that time.

- Brisbane Lions have sold out of 2026 reserve seat memberships, I suspect there will be a waitlist established this year, 5 years before they move to the new stadium. I think the fear of empty seats at the new stadium are unfounded as the Lions sell out finals at 36k each year extremely rapidly. There is a huge ex-Victorian population here that can't get to general games or big 5 games because from now on seats will be limited.

- Gold Coast Suns are not a 2nd Brisbane team like people outside of QLD like to believe, it is like calling Geelong a Melbourne club (similar distance). As such the penetration of the Suns supporters in the Brisbane suburbs is limited (leaving un-tapped potential). It is not the same situation here as Port/Crows and Freo/WC.

Obviously, the first dot point and third dot point also apply to WA3 (perth based team not SW WA).

I am a big believer in a future third SEQ team. Obviously I'm biased, but the 20th is just not the time.

The same time the Lions move into a brand new 63k stadium, is not the time. The Lions will be increasing capacity by more than 80%. A second team should come when the demand is overflowing, but the Lions' increased supply will immediately mop up demand.

Starting a second Brisbane team at the same time the Lions start at Victoria Park would be starting them with one arm tied behind their back.

I'm all aboard SEQ3 for Team 21 though!

 

[RedV3x]

I am a big believer in a future third SEQ team.

Out of where ? What happened to the second SEQ team by the way?

The same time the Lions move into a brand new 63k stadium, is not the time.

I don't see why not.

A second team should come when the demand is overflowing

Why? Why wait for greater imbalance and less acceptance?

Starting a second Brisbane team at the same time the Lions start at Victoria Park would be starting them with one arm tied behind their back.


Both teams starting fresh seems competitive.

 

[speedpeck23]

So still no examples of the AFL alluding to the second Brisbane team?

Check out the thread

"A third team in Queensland ? AFL acknowledges QLD3 as a 20th licence option".

Started March 6 2025 by GC2015

 

[Aussie in exile]

Check out the thread

"A third team in Queensland ? AFL acknowledges QLD3 as a 20th licence option".

Started March 6 2025 by GC2015

IF that was to happen that ends the chances of Canberra ever having their own team, and it is my opinion now after Tassie the team in will be WA3.

 

[speedpeck23]

IF that was to happen that ends the chances of Canberra ever having their own team, and it is my opinion now after Tassie the team in will be WA3.

They simply won't have 3 clubs playing out of Optus Stadium.....

 

[Canberra Pear]

Check out the thread

"A third team in Queensland ? AFL acknowledges QLD3 as a 20th licence option".

Started March 6 2025 by GC2015

I've seen the thread. I'm literally the top contributor. It could've slipped me past, but I'm still get to see anything in that thread in which anybody from the AFL has said more than "never say never".

I think it's a worthy discussion, but the whole thread has spawned from those three words.

 

[RedV3x]

IF that was to happen that ends the chances of Canberra ever having their own team

NO. there is still relocation.

, and it is my opinion now after Tassie the team in will be WA3.

The 20th team depends on many things - elements surrounding the location and timing.
Pth3 is only a short-time option if other options don't appear.
Canberra is a sure option if a modest lead-in time is required.
The longer they leave it then the better BR2 will become.