Europe Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread:

Europe - War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/backdrop-to-the-war-in-ukraine.1302028/ If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Aussie in exile]

*Their

lol sorry

But seriously; Probably, they've held neutrality deals in the past(Finland, Georgia).

The real question is can Ukraine be trusted to fulfil their side of the bargain. You'll note Zelensky was elected on a platform of finally fulfilling Minsk2, though he failed(didn't try for the constitutional reforms, doubt they would have got through the Rada tbf)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian%E2%80%93Ukrainian_Friendship_Treat

Budapest Memorandum - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[barreness]

This of course is utter bullshit and blatant Russian propaganda.

It has always been Ukrainians and Ukraine itself who have decided they want to be an independent state. The US is a neutral party their only involvement is as far as their Budapest obligations go (they forced Ukraine to transfer their nuclear arsenal to Russia).

It is also a fact that Ukraine rejecting Russian subjugation is no threat to Russia at all apart from being a blow to Pedo Putins dreams of a hee empire.

You defend Pedo Putin who instead of building a bilateral relationship with Ukraine decided nope, I'll occupy Ukraine if they don't yield to my fascist empire dreams.

It's amazing how you roll out the same fascist pro Russian bullshit, almost like you can't deviate from a script where mother Russia good - Ukraine bad.

Did you watch the 2000m to adrivkka?(sic)

Notice the totenkopfs, wolfsangels, mysterious deaths of surrendered POW, or fascistic torchlit ceremony at the end?

Think this got universal praise in the western press, so brave and real. Lets slap a few documentary awards on this pro war film

 

[barreness]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian%E2%80%93Ukrainian_Friendship_Treat

Budapest Memorandum - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Treaty that Ukraine pulled out off and then a memo. Think my opinion of 'probably' keep to it remains valid

 

[Aussie in exile]

Treaty that Ukraine pulled out off and then a memo. Think my opinion of 'probably' keep to it remains valid

Even you being pro russian and pro putin and pro there illegal invasion of Ukraine must admit that putin got this badly wrong with the illegal invasion

 

[barreness]

Even you being pro russian and pro putin and pro there illegal invasion of Ukraine must admit that putin got this badly wrong with the illegal invasion

War is always wrong, but inevitable in this case

 

[Zidane98]

*Their

lol sorry

But seriously; Probably, they've held neutrality deals in the past(Finland, Georgia).

The real question is can Ukraine be trusted to fulfil their side of the bargain. You'll note Zelensky was elected on a platform of finally fulfilling Minsk2, though he failed(didn't try for the constitutional reforms, doubt they would have got through the Rada tbf)

The real question is if Ukraine should be trusted?

Not the paedophile fascist war criminal running Russia that you do enthusiastically simp for?

Let me make it clear to you

Ukraine is not the aggressor. Ukraine is not a threat at all - unless you count not accepting being a puppet Russian state.

We know this because your country is isolated as a parish state on the global stage.

We know this because a once thriving Russia is now on its knees, resorting to doing deals with North Korea, Iran and a few other dictators that are human rights abusers / war criminals.

No matter what Russian propaganda you spew from your script nothing can change this reality.

You must find it sickening that you have no choice but to defend all of the above.

 

[Zidane98]

War is always wrong, but inevitable in this case

Not true. Ukraine is no threat to Russia, infact Ukraine wants nothing to do with Russia at all.

Maybe it's about time Putin started funding outdoor toilet, fixing roads, feeding his people instead of pursuing a delusional dream of a new Russian Empire and deliberately murdering Ukranian civilians, kidnapping children enmasse because they reject him.

You seem proud to defend that behaviour - each to their own.

 

[Aussie in exile]

War is always wrong, but inevitable in this case

But you would have to admit that putin got this badly wrong.

 

[CM86]

I don't understand this argument.

You completely understand my point and critique of you. It's why you framed it as an argument, and moved on to avoiding my point altogether.


Stop being so dishonest. Just spend a single week before the end of this year, being an honest poster. Instead of whatever you think you're doing.
Step one is to be consistent with your values and beliefs.

 

[wannabejack]

Treaty that Ukraine pulled out off and then a memo. Think my opinion of 'probably' keep to it remains valid

Once again you forget to add "following Russia's 2014 aggression in Crimea and Donbas".
A lie by omission!
One of the many forms of dishonesty that you use.

 

[Zidane98]

Once again you forget to add "following Russia's 2014 aggression in Crimea and Donbas".
A lie by omission!
One of the many forms of dishonesty that you use.

Russia also lose access to Sevastopol thanks to its unjustified invasion & aggression towards Ukraine.

They had a lease until 2042 that was fully honoured by Ukraine.

There's a good chance they will beg for it back once they withdraw from Ukraine in humiliation.

 

[Chief]

I've been saying they should take a peace deal for three years in this thread

Which would be broken by Russia as soon as they rebuilt their military.

Think about it.

 

[Zidane98]

Which would be broken by Russia as salon as they rebuilt their military.

Think about it.

Whatever the result it is pretty clear that Ukraine won't be signing any guarantees with Russia.

I've seen better guarantees from counterfeit watch traders in the Bali markets.

 

[wannabejack]

Whatever the result it is pretty clear that Ukraine won't be signing any guarantees with Russia.

I've seen better guarantees from counterfeit watch traders in the Bali markets.

russia signing any new guarantees.

It’s worked for them before.

 

[barreness]

Many such cases

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-nato-sloat/
“We had some conversations even before the war started about, what if Ukraine comes out and just says to Russia, ‘Fine, you know, we won’t go into NATO, you know, if that stops the war, if that stops the invasion’ — which at that point it may well have done,” Sloat told the pranksters. “There is certainly a question, three years on now, you know, would that have been better to do before the war started, would that have been better to do in Istanbul talks? It certainly would have prevented the destruction and loss of life.”
........
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and former Biden Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines both likewise explicitly said that NATO’s potential expansion into Ukraine was the core grievance that motivated Putin’s decision to invade, and that, at least according to Stoltenberg, NATO rejected compromising on it. Zelensky has now publicly agreed to this concession to advance peace talks — only three years later, with Ukraine now in physical ruins, its economy destroyed, hundreds of thousands of casualties, and survivors traumatized and disabled on a mass scale.

All of this will surely go down as one of the great missed opportunities of history. Critics of the war and NATO policy have long said the war and its devastating impact could have been avoided by explicitly ruling out Ukrainian entry into NATO, only to be told they were spreading Kremlin propaganda. It turns out they were simply spreading Biden officials' own private thoughts.

 

[barreness]

The real question is if Ukraine should be trusted?

Not the paedophile fascist war criminal running Russia that you do enthusiastically simp for?

Let me make it clear to you

Ukraine is not the aggressor. Ukraine is not a threat at all - unless you count not accepting being a puppet Russian state.

We know this because your country is isolated as a parish state on the global stage.

We know this because a once thriving Russia is now on its knees, resorting to doing deals with North Korea, Iran and a few other dictators that are human rights abusers / war criminals.

No matter what Russian propaganda you spew from your script nothing can change this reality.

You must find it sickening that you have no choice but to defend all of the above.

You just need a hug from Kim

 

[barreness]

You completely understand my point and critique of you. It's why you framed it as an argument, and moved on to avoiding my point altogether.


Stop being so dishonest. Just spend a single week before the end of this year, being an honest poster. Instead of whatever you think you're doing.
Step one is to be consistent with your values and beliefs.

Nah man, you just cut my comment because it wasn't the argument path you wished to take.

You think I'm defending Trump because you believe he is a Russian agent or something. A common narrative in liberal media since 2016 really, turns out there's very little here of substance.

You seemingly can't wrap your head around the fact that I dislike all US leaders and place the blame mostly on them for this disaster of a war. 35 years of post cold war destructive mismanagement by administrations of all stripes.

Eh I'm being honest with my beliefs, I think the world is doomed and we're all cooked from here. If you want my utopian vision then it's like semi-primitive eco-socialism of some form(I'm not backing this in just quietly)

 

[barreness]

Once again you forget to add "following Russia's 2014 aggression in Crimea and Donbas".
A lie by omission!
One of the many forms of dishonesty that you use.

I included this point before, was it in this thread or the other place? idk

It was a short message because I'd just covered it and cbf including obvious caveats.

 

[barreness]

Which would be broken by Russia as soon as they rebuilt their military.

Think about it.

They don't need to rebuild, they've been advancing at an increasingly fast rate(relatively for this war, of course) this year. Ukraine lost the hope of regaining territory after the failed 2023 offensive, who tf knows what the Kursk operation was, no offensive this year

Ukraine currently needs a ceasefire to rebuild their defensive lines/do something about manpower, which is why they're asking now(as opposed to making negotiation illegal for 2 years). Russia will not accept that; Ukraine used minsk1 and 2 because they were in shit military encirclements and then never fulfilled their end. Fool me once......we don't get fooled again.

Accept demands(maybe a few small territory swaps etc) or the war continues. Waiting on the missiles to run out, the economy to collapse, Putin to die/be couped etc has been a fools errands.

There would be no need to invade again if they stay neutral, like Georgia. I think you should think about it

 

[barreness]

russia signing any new guarantees.
View attachment 2497705
It’s worked for them before.

'Not one inch eastward'

 

[barreness]

EU being very free and democratic here.


https://www.rferl.org/a/eu-blacklist-russia-sanctions-shadow-fleet/33619173.html
A former colonel in the Swiss Army, Jacques Baud, is also listed for acting "as a mouthpiece for pro-Russian propaganda and making conspiracy theories, for example accusing Ukraine of orchestrating its own invasion in order to join NATO." Former French military officer Xavier Moreau is listed for similar actions.
Baud is actually pretty good, common sense takes and pretty sure he's not pushing the line quoted here. Would recommend him to people. Ah well, travel banned in a land locked country and assets seized.
Jacques Baud was a member of the Swiss strategic intelligence service and head of the United Nations peacekeeping operations doctrine.
Bit of irony from Radio Free Europe talking about being a propaganda mouthpiece.



https://www.newglobalpolitics.org/censorship-in-western-academia-and-the-war-in-ukraine/
Our panel was scheduled to address the phenomenon of “busification” (forced mobilization in Ukraine). We were to examine its relationship to gender and nationalism, as well as the resistance and civil society responses it has provoked. The panel also planned to place these issues in a comparative context, exploring forced mobilization in Ukraine alongside similar practices during the Yugoslav wars. The event was proposed and organized with the utmost care to ensure the rigor of academic debate and to reflect the urgency of the human rights abuses on the ground.


Don't mention the press gangs, Putin started it and so on

 

[Chief]

They don't need to rebuild, they've been advancing at an increasingly fast rate(relatively for this war, of course) this year.

By drawing forces from other points in their front. Ukraine took land back right away.

They have no reserves to speak of.

I don't think the nutters they have drawn in from other countries are making up for the many thousands killed and wounded.

 

[Zidane98]

'Not one inch eastward'

This was honoured in the final treaty agreement of Germany.

No NATO bases on further East German territory - honoured to this very day.

You lose - again.

 

[Zidane98]

They don't need to rebuild, they've been advancing at an increasingly fast rate(relatively for this war, of course) this year. Ukraine lost the hope of regaining territory after the failed 2023 offensive, who tf knows what the Kursk operation was, no offensive this year

Ukraine currently needs a ceasefire to rebuild their defensive lines/do something about manpower, which is why they're asking now(as opposed to making negotiation illegal for 2 years). Russia will not accept that; Ukraine used minsk1 and 2 because they were in shit military encirclements and then never fulfilled their end. Fool me once......we don't get fooled again.

Accept demands(maybe a few small territory swaps etc) or the war continues. Waiting on the missiles to run out, the economy to collapse, Putin to die/be couped etc has been a fools errands.

There would be no need to invade again if they stay neutral, like Georgia. I think you should think about it

Russia is in no position to make demands.

It is now selling oil under cost just to keep up production.

It's economy is ruined. Putin is wasting the national wealth fund.

It requires ammunition from North Korea just to hold its position.

It has lost access to Sevastopol, no longer controls Black Sea.


It has 210 billion euros in assets frozen that are only unfrozen in the event Russia withdraws completely.

It has no support other than military hardware from Iran / North Korea.

Zero recognition & support internationally for its failed annexations. Without recognition annexations are useless just like they were for Hitler.

40% of GDP defense spending just to maintain a hostile occupation

Suspended from FIFA, ICAO, human rights councils and a whole host of international associations in disgrace because of Putins actions.

Commercial aviation in crisis. Only so many parts can be stripped from stolen aircraft to maintain commercial aircraft.

1.5 million casualties and counting. Multiple public military humiliations inflicted on it by Ukraine with Ukrainian troops and weapons - this one stings the most of all.



Think about all the benefits to Russia withdrawing and bring a respectable non pariah state. All of the above are facts and directly due to Putin's invasion that only continues because he is a dictator with absolute power.

Probably worth trillions of dollars economically easily for Russia to withdraw completely assuming Russia wants to continue a hostile occupation for another 4 years.

Because Ukrainians are never agreeing annexations with Putin as he is to Ukrainians what Hitler was to Jews.

 

[wannabejack]

I included this point before, was it in this thread or the other place? idk

It was a short message because I'd just covered it and cbf including obvious caveats.

I'm sure I was the one that brought it up.