Do Collingwood need to enter a rebuild phase?

[Mynamesinuse]

They're not close. Jesus.

Holmes is a very good footballer. Little Nicky is a genuine superstar.

Holmes is also a superstar

 

[Chip Scab1]

Holmes is also a superstar

At Essington, sure

He is a good young player who plays in a good team. He's really good.

 

[ShereKhan]

The votes go to the three best players on the ground

One of those is usually Daics, comfortably more often than anyone in history, that's why he's tracking towards GOAT status

It's not rocket science

OK....I've suggested that being the only elite mid in a team winning games really helps attain votes.

Tim Taranto has played 3 x seasons at Richmond as easily our best mid. Not the level of Naicos, but an excellent player.

TT : 17 x wins for 32 votes @ 1.88 votes per game.

Nick Daicos has played in 44 wins across 2023-25. I've taken out his debut season when not playing midfield. So across just those 3 x seasons:

Naicos: 44 x wins for 81 votes @ 1.84 votes per game.

Patrick Cripps played in 45 wins across 2022-25. Carlton's only elite mid to consistently play games.

Cripps: 45 x wins for 84 votes @1.87 votes per game.

Naicos has 14 x votes from 20 x losses. He hasn't polled a Brownlow vote the 9 x games the Pies have lost by 21+. IN some of those losses he's had 27, 29, 34, 37 & 38, so has been as prolific as ever in many of those bigger losses.

In Taranto's 3 x years at Richmond, they've lost 29 games by 21+ points. So there's 29 x games where Naicos likely doesn't poll.

Obviously as teams win more games they generally need a larger spread of good players, so the votes are more likely to be shared. However, when you are a successful team's only elite mid and midfielders get the lion's share of votes, it's a recipe for big votes. There's a reason Lachie Neale won his second Brownlow in a season where he didn't even make the AA team - he got 30 x votes in their wins and 1 x vote in their losses. And a reason why Fyfe won his second Brownlow with 33 votes despite missing 3 x games in 2019 - just happened to be the same season his major competition for votes Lachie Neale went to Brisbane....

When there's limited midfield competition for votes as Naicos, Cripps and Taranto have, they generally gorge on votes in each victory. Tim Taranto isn't in the same class as Naicos, but averages more votes in wins than Naicos does. I don't rate Cripps as highly as Naicos either, and he averages more also - over a huge sample size of 4 x years.

So it's very clear that if Naicos gets a high quality midfield 'running mate' (ie. Butters), and/or the Pies win less games, his vote tallies will drop.

But if he remains the sole elite mid and the Pies win loads of games again, he'll go big again. As would Cripps, Neale, Taranto, Fyfe....or anyone else in his position.

He currently has the perfect recipe for votes, but it won't last forever.

 

[Mr Meow]

Yes and only Geelong can do it, no other club can, just won't happen.

So yeah Collingwood will fail miserably coz their unknowns are already spuds, just coz they're not high end draft picks.

The competitions fans look rightly at Geelong and marvel at just what you've said here, just keep contending, and have done for near on 20 years.

But not Collingwood, even though they've done exactly that, turned unknown spuds at the time, I'll use the end of 2021 as an example, not the first time, (like McReery for example) into back page news and flag winners.

Will admit no club has done it like Geelong, but you know what, the Pies aren't too shabby at turning unknown spuds into cult heroes. This has been the history of the club, if you look at all our flags, rarely have we had THE best list when winning them. We've got a culture of belief in the stocks we got and is a reason why this club also continue to contend, not as consistently as the cats, none the less a GF appearance on avg once every 3years speaks volumes.

I'm not really writing Collingwood off. Simply listing the challenge and types of requirements. Too many people on here pretend they have a crystal ball. The Pies are a well run club with a 21st century run of mostly being thereabouts. They might continue to do so. But there are always concerns when the next batch if veteran champions are near the end. Geelong supporters now look to what happens when all of Dangerfield, Cameron, Blicavs and Stewart are gone.

 

[doppleganger]

I don't endorse trying to expedite a "young and shit" journey. I just think you're under selling what that group offer in performance and leadership.

Leadership no doubt.
Actual performance has been declining though.

Nobody thought losing WHE, Cox and Mitchell was going to be terminal.

But people did think losing Treloar, Grundy, Adams (all AA or BnF quality players) along with a glut of other veterans was going to be.

The same narrative was trotted out back in 2021, Pies should rebuild and need to focus on the draft and youth.

Same with Geelong.

t's unlikely Collingwood simply plummet to the bottom of the ladder when it happens but a few 2024 type seasons are likely. Unless of course some big free agency moves are made and a handful of young prospects quickly become key players.

Sure, it is hard to make top 4, doing it 3 our of 4 years is a great achievement.

There is no guarantee that being shit and young and stock piling top 10 draft picks will ensure you can finish top4 in the 5 years time.

Carlton, Essendon, North, Freo, Gold Coast...these are teams who love being young (Richmond and WC have joined them) but despite so many top draft picks how many top 4 finishes have those clubs had in the last 20 years?

DeGoey gives you 2-5 games building his fitness and another 6-7 fully fit each season these days. It's hard to call him a core of anything until that changes.

Sure, if our key players like Daicos bros, Moore, DeGoey or Cameron can't get on the park, we will struggle...same can be said for most teams.

I think people are massively overstating the impact of Howe and Sidey. Pendles and J.Elliott are the two big concerns for mine re the veterans.

But the cliffers love potential, it is much better to have an 18 yr old top 10 draft pick than a quality 28 yr old proven AFL player....as in 6 years the kid "might become quality AFL player" and the proven AFL player "needs replacing".

 

[Mynamesinuse]

Leadership no doubt.
Actual performance has been declining though.

But people did think losing Treloar, Grundy, Adams (all AA or BnF quality players) along with a glut of other veterans was going to be.

The same narrative was trotted out back in 2021, Pies should rebuild and need to focus on the draft and youth.

Same with Geelong.

Sure, it is hard to make top 4, doing it 3 our of 4 years is a great achievement.

There is no guarantee that being shit and young and stock piling top 10 draft picks will ensure you can finish top4 in the 5 years time.

Carlton, Essendon, North, Freo, Gold Coast...these are teams who love being young (Richmond and WC have joined them) but despite so many top draft picks how many top 4 finishes have those clubs had in the last 20 years?

Sure, if our key players like Daicos bros, Moore, DeGoey or Cameron can't get on the park, we will struggle...same can be said for most teams.

I think people are massively overstating the impact of Howe and Sidey. Pendles and J.Elliott are the two big concerns for mine re the veterans.

But the cliffers love potential, it is much better to have an 18 yr old top 10 draft pick than a quality 28 yr old proven AFL player....as in 6 years the kid "might become quality AFL player" and the proven AFL player "needs replacing".

Not sure why you keep saying people think having someone with potential is better than a proven 28 year old.
It’s obviously balance and teams with a majority of mature age players are going to play better footy. Then there’s a point where key players decline and having no players with potential causes problems.
Then it becomes an increased work load on the entire group.

 

[ShereKhan]

And we are rebuilding, constantly. Have been since the clubs inception.

Pies have been able to remain relevant largely due to father/sons acquired before decent compensation was required. Naicos was acquired for a suite of picks in the 30-40’s.

Darcy Moore, the Clokes, the Shaws, the Daicos’s ….. getting gifts like this
enables you to remain relevant in the absence of lots of top-10 selections.

It’s why the Lions will end up contending from effectively 2019 to 2035 or beyond.

Got lots of pointy end picks early in the build, traded well, then when the time would have normally come for a downturn when Zorko, Andrews, Cameron etc… are gone, they’ve got:

Ashcroft x2, Fletcher and now Annable. All elite talents acquired for peanuts.

These teams have still needed to do other things well, but without father/son it’d be loads more difficult.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

OK....I've suggested that being the only elite mid in a team winning games really helps attain votes.

Tim Taranto has played 3 x seasons at Richmond as easily our best mid. Not the level of Naicos, but an excellent player.

TT : 17 x wins for 32 votes @ 1.88 votes per game.

Nick Daicos has played in 44 wins across 2023-25. I've taken out his debut season when not playing midfield. So across just those 3 x seasons:

Naicos: 44 x wins for 81 votes @ 1.84 votes per game.

Patrick Cripps played in 45 wins across 2022-25. Carlton's only elite mid to consistently play games.

Cripps: 45 x wins for 84 votes @1.87 votes per game.

Naicos has 14 x votes from 20 x losses. He hasn't polled a Brownlow vote the 9 x games the Pies have lost by 21+. IN some of those losses he's had 27, 29, 34, 37 & 38, so has been as prolific as ever in many of those bigger losses.

In Taranto's 3 x years at Richmond, they've lost 29 games by 21+ points. So there's 29 x games where Naicos likely doesn't poll.

Obviously as teams win more games they generally need a larger spread of good players, so the votes are more likely to be shared. However, when you are a successful team's only elite mid and midfielders get the lion's share of votes, it's a recipe for big votes. There's a reason Lachie Neale won his second Brownlow in a season where he didn't even make the AA team - he got 30 x votes in their wins and 1 x vote in their losses. And a reason why Fyfe won his second Brownlow with 33 votes despite missing 3 x games in 2019 - just happened to be the same season his major competition for votes Lachie Neale went to Brisbane....

When there's limited midfield competition for votes as Naicos, Cripps and Taranto have, they generally gorge on votes in each victory. Tim Taranto isn't in the same class as Naicos, but averages more votes in wins than Naicos does. I don't rate Cripps as highly as Naicos either, and he averages more also - over a huge sample size of 4 x years.

So it's very clear that if Naicos gets a high quality midfield 'running mate' (ie. Butters), and/or the Pies win less games, his vote tallies will drop.

But if he remains the sole elite mid and the Pies win loads of games again, he'll go big again. As would Cripps, Neale, Taranto, Fyfe....or anyone else in his position.

He currently has the perfect recipe for votes, but it won't last forever.

Are there any other players in history who have begun their careers with this perfect combination of winning lots of games, including a premiership, with crap teammates who won't take votes off them?

 

[Fadge]

Naicos: 44 x wins for 81 votes @ 1.84 votes per game.

Oh no.

What is 18 + 12 + 16?

 

[Worm4]

Oh no.

What is 18 + 12 + 16?

The 18 you refer to is probably 16 as finals dont count for votes. So its 16, 12, 16 = 44
Simple math i would have thought

 

[Fadge]

The 18 you refer to is probably 16 as finals dont count for votes. So its 16, 12, 16 = 44
Simple math i would have thought

Yeah, I know it's hard for you to imagine a team could win 18 home and away games in a season, but Collingwood did so in 2023:

 

[Mynamesinuse]

Are there any other players in history who have begun their careers with this perfect combination of winning lots of games, including a premiership, with crap teammates who won't take votes off them?

The 18 you refer to is probably 16 as finals dont count for votes. So its 16, 12, 16 = 44
Simple math i would have thought

Surely the Brownlow has no credibility

 

[Fadge]

Surely the Brownlow has no credibility

What about the AFLCA Coaches Award, or the AFLPA MVP?

Just completely ignore the views of those closest to the game, because it doesn't fit your narrative?

 

[Matrix10]

Other than Cox and Mitchell who?

Hoskin Elliott. Mihocek. Markov.

 

[Fadge]

Hoskin Elliott. Mihocek. Markov.

Amazing that our list is so deep we can cull a lazy 5 premiership players without the rest of the competition noticing!

 

[Corn Cobbers]

What about the AFLCA Coaches Award, or the AFLPA MVP?

Just completely ignore the views of those closest to the game, because it doesn't fit your narrative?

Stats - not credible
Awards - not credible
Anything that screams "Daics is the game's best player" - not credible

 

[Mynamesinuse]

Amazing that our list is so deep we can cull a lazy 5 premiership players without the rest of the competition noticing!

Finished players other than Miochek

 

[Fadge]

Finished players other than Miochek

Yep, and that's why they were delisted.

Although another team who would be expecting to contend for the flag saw enough in Cox to give him a Contract...

 

[Worm4]

Yeah, I know it's hard for you to imagine a team could win 18 home and away games in a season, but Collingwood did so in 2023:

View attachment 2504037

How many of those wins did Nick play in einstein ?

 

[Fadge]

Stats - not credible
Awards - not credible
Anything that screams "Daics is the game's best player" - not credible

PLaYeR RaTiNGZ it is then!

Except of course when Daicos has a high PLaYeR RaTiNG, then that's the occasional flaw in the algorithm.

 

[ShereKhan]

Are there any other players in history who have begun their careers with this perfect combination of winning lots of games, including a premiership, with crap teammates who won't take votes off them?

Darcy Cameron beat Naicos in your B&F. He got zero Brownlow votes to Nick's 32. In 2023 Josh Daicos beat Nick in the B&F. He got 8 x votes to Naicos's 28.

So yeah....he's got some excellent teammates who the Collingwood coaches rate very highly...but don't poll many votes. Elliott who kicked 60 goals in 2025 with 9 x votes. I thought Crisp was very good in 2025...he nailed 3 x votes.....and so on....

So there's plenty of high quality teammates,...who don't take votes off him.

 

[Fadge]

How many of those wins did Nick play in einstein ?

Apparently the umpires favour him so much that he can receive votes without even playing!

So they should be counted.

 

[Mynamesinuse]

Stats - not credible
Awards - not credible
Anything that screams "Daics is the game's best player" - not credible

Why?
What if the best player misses games?
What if they have to fill holes as the team has injuries.
What if the media isn’t obsessed with them or are interstate.

 

[Fadge]

So there's plenty of high quality teammates,...who don't take votes off him.

Because Daicos is so much better than them.

That's what happens when you're the best player in the game.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Darcy Cameron beat Naicos in your B&F. He got zero Brownlow votes to Nick's 32. In 2023 Josh Daicos beat Nick in the B&F. He got 8 x votes to Naicos's 28.

So yeah....he's got some excellent teammates who the Collingwood coaches rate very highly...but don't poll many votes. Elliott who kicked 60 goals in 2025 with 9 x votes. I thought Crisp was very good in 2025...he nailed 3 x votes.....and so on....

So there's plenty of high quality teammates,...who don't take votes off him.

He's soooo lucky