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Recent content by brett128

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    Betting restrictions and limits for constant winners?

    Expected wins in 2014: 595 wins Actual ATS wins in 2014: 591 wins The answer to my scenario Duritz was that you needed to incorporate the z-test with a prior Bayes' distribution. The z-test becomes your likelihood function, and you derive a posterior distribution that formally quantifies...
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    Betting restrictions and limits for constant winners?

    By 2 years I meant actively posting on a daily basis. I've been getting tagged into crap for 2 years without responding. And I'm about to leave. Then you can read back on it all again in your ample free time.
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    Betting restrictions and limits for constant winners?

    Tell me Sportpunter's results over all sports, and compare like for like. If you want to compare AFL, 55.50% ATS on 422 plays since Feb 2013.
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    Betting restrictions and limits for constant winners?

    How do you define how many the wins the market expects you to have? Do you mean by price (remember I don't bet into money lines) IE: 1/$1.91 = 0.5234 Or by my own internal expectation?
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    Betting restrictions and limits for constant winners?

    Read the first sentence dude. And maybe have a crack at my scenario (or anyone).
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    Betting restrictions and limits for constant winners?

    100% agree.
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    Betting restrictions and limits for constant winners?

    Which means are we comparing? You're also committing type 1 error chopping up periods using a z-score test. I had this exact discussion a few months ago with someone that was misapplying statistical testing. A summary of the scenario I gave to them: 1. An infamous scam artist handicapper...
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    Betting restrictions and limits for constant winners?

    Anything that's worth tracking made by Jon Lowe costs a handsome sum. He's great at AFL sides (not so much totals), whilst his other big paid model (tennis) is probably dropping away in advantage. If he thinks he can go from $1,000 USD to $2,500 USD for a season AFL sub without garnering...
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    Betting restrictions and limits for constant winners?

    Yeah agreed, I think we have a long way to go. We've bitten off 7 sports and 14 markets, sides and totals. That's a lot of work. However if you think 7 months with negative returns is abnormal, you haven't been around risk long enough.
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    Betting restrictions and limits for constant winners?

    Every single play is listed by whatever time period you want to search for. Main market sides and totals on every sport we cover is listed in a result database. Make sure you filter for only sides and totals, as we don't do/provide for anything else. If there was no line on a game (ie: pick...
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    Betting restrictions and limits for constant winners?

    Well what are we supposed to do about it? If someone signs up for a bad day/weekend/month when variance does what variance will always do, we have to deal with the variance ourselves to our own BR, and so do our clients. There's no such thing as returns without risk, if someone doesn't want to...
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    Betting restrictions and limits for constant winners?

    Most of my waking hours. Continuously improving on models, and model research and development requires continuous commitment.
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    Betting restrictions and limits for constant winners?

    Time is absolutely arbitrary. What happened if I had 10% of all my plays in 2014? Can I say how much I've made just in the last month if we're playing with arbitrary time periods? We're still in negative territory in 2014, on the back of a stellar 2013. Overall, 2500 plays at 53.6% ATS and...
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    Betting restrictions and limits for constant winners?

    We've generated 2,500 plays in 7 sports since Feb 2013 at 53.6% ATS and ~3% ROI.
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    Betting restrictions and limits for constant winners?

    One of my partners was one of his 'mushroom' modelers in the 80's. Didn't know he was working for him until he wasn't working for him any more.
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