Recent content by BrownlowGuru

Sorry - I haven’t run my model this year due to other commitments. Best of luck for tonight.

Interested if there is time.

In: Le Ferrey

Team Votes. Sloane R 1.019 Crouch M 57.10 Laird R 1050 Others > 2000 Beams D 1.892 Zorko D 2.167 Rockliff T 100.622 Others > 5000 Murphy M 2.415 Docherty S 3.616 Gibbs B 5.211 Kreuzer M 8.531 Others > 5000 Adams T 1.282 Treloar A 7.921 Pendlebury S 14.134...

Yes - by a fair distance.

When including suspended players, I have the Top 5 betting as: Danger 1.001 Martin 1.001 Mitchell 1.295 Kelly 1.415 Sloane 1.693 Merrett 1.808 Bont 9.045 Adams 9.443 Oliver 24.481 Ross 38.807 Kennedy 41.121 Others > 50

I've got Selwood on around 13 votes, and Duncan on around 11 votes. If I did a couple of million simulations, then Selwood would be 2nd most likely.

I do. However there are some caveats. - In my opinion, umpires tend to 'underpoll' suspended players towards the top of the leaderboard, as no-one really wants to see a suspended player poll the most votes. So, with that in mind, I expect Danger to not poll as well in the last few rounds...

Historical predictions from 2007 - 2016 below: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/brownlow-guru-speaks-2016.1146095 http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/brownlow-guru-speaks-2015.1110987 http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/brownlow-guru-speaks-2014.1077291...

Hi all. I've got a system which I use to calculate Brownlow Medal probabilities. In a nutshell, it involves analysing all 198 games, determining the probability of individuals getting votes in that game, and then running a number of simulations for the whole season to get an idea of who's likely...

A good result for the model this year - identifying Parker as value and picking some nice top end exotics (quinella / trifecta etc.) Teams were OK - while Carlton and Collingwood were disappointing, there was value taken in Melbourne, St Kilda, Sydney, Adelaide (w/o fav). Personally I went...

In general chat - my model picks Danger as a clear winner - by about 4-5 votes. But, it's not a certainty, the question is has all the media hype (from round 1) helped or harmed him? My feeling is that it has helped, and he should win comfortably. For the rest, Parker is definitely an outlier...

Hi, I haven't posted much in here this year - sorry for that. Been rather busy, and am now catching up at the last minute. Plenty of action on the 3-vote markets offered by some bookies (thanks!) Here are the teams, better late than never. Sloane R 1.148 Laird R 14.171 Betts E 40.048...

If only you could multi...