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Recent content by Final Siren

  1. Final Siren

    Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

    Personally I have Richmond as a lock for the spoon with 5 wins (biggest off-season loss of talent since I've been tracking it!), but even that's optimistic, because projected ladders always give too many wins to the bottom team. From the FAQ: Q. Why is the season tipped to be so close? Most...
  2. Final Siren

    Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

    Whoops, all fixed now.
  3. Final Siren

    Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

    Right, and I do my best to make Squiggle accurate, but it's very far from infallible! Squiggle gets things wrong all the time. I'm just happy if it gets fewer things wrong than most people. And this stuff is all probablistic, anyway. Squiggle thinks Hawthorn are less likely to have a good...
  4. Final Siren

    Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

    I started tracking this in 2019, because I suspected the answer was "almost always." Preseason ladder predictions in the media can be really wild, and only rarely did anyone ever go back and check how they held up. Unfortunately we only got in one regular year before the massive disruption of...
  5. Final Siren

    Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

    Yeah, you have to be a bit careful about what those predicted ladders are actually saying. There is some explanation on AFL Projected Ladder - Squiggle under "About Ladder Projections," but one common issue is that all teams' predicted wins drift towards the middle, with top teams showing...
  6. Final Siren

    Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

    I just use AFL Player Ratings Pts - I don't have my own system. And yes, players do lose ratings pts if they haven't played for a while.
  7. Final Siren

    Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

    You're going to hate me, but Richmond: So far -- can change with new injuries & I haven't done praccy match results yet -- off-season improvement looks roughly like this: Tons: Richmond, Carlton Plenty: West Coast, Fremantle, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Adelaide Some: St Kilda, Essendon...
  8. Final Siren

    Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

    Squiggle does (attempt to) account for ins & outs, both week to week and over the off-season, but you're 100% right that there are a whole bunch of factors it doesn't account for. And a new coach is a big one! A model is never going to be very good at predicting how well a team will go under a...
  9. Final Siren

    Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

    Sure, but equally you can ask why in the middle of those games, the Hawks also lost to Adelaide (in Melbourne), or got done by 10 goals by Freo in Tassie. Logically, it doesn't make much sense that you can beat a good team, then, with better players, lose to a worse team, yet it happens all the...
  10. Final Siren

    Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

    Gotta say I side with the humans on this one. As per the above post, Squiggle's in-house model is the most pessimistic of all models on Hawthorn, tipping them for 16th, and as far as I know it's also the only one that tries to measure off-season list changes. I have Hawthorn's off-season like...
  11. Final Siren

    Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

    Most of the models up and running so far are pretty grim on Freo: This is mostly because of, as you say, crap percentage and winning close games, but also because of how the Dockers fell off towards the end of the year. Percentage is often a better indicator of underlying team performance...
  12. Final Siren

    Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

    It is now! Thanks for the reminder. Yes. It's not adjusted for fewer games, but that wouldn't make much difference.
  13. Final Siren

    Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

    This seems like a motivated question, coming from an Adelaide supporter. But it's a good chance to talk about probability, so: What you're looking at is the projection if the favourite (according to Squiggle) wins every game. This is not a smart way to do it, because as we all know, favourites...
  14. Final Siren

    Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

    Ooh yeah. That's the good stuff. I told you posting on BigFooty all the time wasn't a total waste, honey.
  15. Final Siren

    Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

    Oh wow, how about that. So this is a pretty weird game and a similarly weird outcome, but for the purposes of transparency, what's happening here is: 1. Richmond's familiarity advantage with the MCG was eroded by spending most of 2020 on the road. Even this year, the Tigers have played at the...
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