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Recent content by robertbn

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    AFL R7

    It's something I've only started experimenting with... But I also don't mind diversifying the betting. Also, it should be less volatile because you're not holding out for upsets, which are less common than a team beating the line (although that hasn't necessarily been true this season). In...
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    AFL R7

    Hey guys, We're plodding along nicely at AFLpredictions.wordpress.com, but I've been absent the last few weeks, so I thought I'd share this week's predictions! Full analysis is on the website. I also put some thoughts (when I can) and post new articles on twitter at @AFLpredictions. H2H...
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    AFL R5

    This week, I like Brisbane at $3.870 (Bet 22.0% of pot) Melbourne at $3.480 (Bet 18.0% of pot) and while we don't seem to win betting on away teams, last week we would have made money on the Kangaroos and Melbourne. So here are the away bets as well: St Kilda at $7.710 (Bet 15.0% of pot)...
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    AFL 2014 ROUND 4

    The home ground advantage depends on a couple of factors - travel, experience at the ground and who is listed as the 'home' team. For instance, this weekend's Tigers vs Collingwood match gives the Tigers a couple of points for playing at home (why it comes out this way, I'm not 100% sure - home...
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    AFL 2014 ROUND 4

    Yep - I never make money on away teams. Here's this year's profit graph (betting on away teams is the red line): Which is pretty much what you see in the long term, as well.
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    AFL 2014 ROUND 4

    Agree with pretty much everything you say! I would have a bet on North if I bet on away teams... (although historically, make no money from them!). And would prefer to take Gold Coast at the line if it's around 25 points than H2H. I think you're right in regards to Essendon and Adelaide. If...
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    AFL 2014 ROUND 4

    I suppose Adelaide have had a tough first three rounds (Geelong, Port and Sydney), and winning any of them would have been a solid effort. The Saints, however, are 2-1 but have only beaten Melbourne and GWS. And Adelaide really need to beat teams like the Saints if want to play finals. You're...
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    AFL 2014 ROUND 4

    The latest analysis from AFLpredictions is up! We continued our stellar year in round 3, betting on the Hawks, Bulldogs and Kangas (and Adelaide...). We also piled up on line bets on the Saints, Kangas, Dogs and Hawks (among a few smaller line bets). This week, there's some value in the...
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    AFL 2014 ROUND 3

    It's only significant in that they get a small "familiarity" advantage at the ground, which Sydney don't get. It's small because it's only one game. Other than that, Adelaide get a home ground advantage for playing in SA, and also an extra one because Sydney have to travel.
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    AFL 2014 ROUND 3

    Hi guys, I've got the algorithm up and running for another season, and thought I'd share some of its insight here. It's already up a neat amount from the first two round, with some tidy wins on GWS, and a couple on St. Kilda. I've included line betting this year too, along with some articles on...
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    Handicapping/modelling AFL

    I actually tend to think modelling the Brownlow wouldn't be too hard. There is enough data to see what kinds of games get votes (high possession, high contested possession?), and you could correct each player's votes according to their history (Judd +10 votes!). Unfortunately, because it's a...
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    Handicapping/modelling AFL

    Hi Butane, I've done a bit of modeling similar to what you are talking about (thanks for the name-drop d3ft!). I do, however, think they're are some people who have good footy instincts and can predict margins and results better than "experts". On top of that, I think that bookmakers can be...
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    AFL Round 23

    This rounds bets. 23% on Sydney at $2.58. Predicted margin: 2 points 20% on West Coast at $1.833. Predicted margin: 11 points. Sydney are favourites (53%) at home, and West Coast are at 62%. Everything needs to go right for Adelaide to sneak in, so the chances are the game will be a dead...
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    AFL Round 22

    This week's bets at http://aflpredictions.wordpress.com/: Bet 32% on Kangaroos at $3.39 Bet 1% on GWS at $21.00 Bet 16% on Brisbane at $1.581 We've actually got North as favourites this week! (52% to win). If so, they're great value at $3.39. I reckon they'll go close - hard to say whether...
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    AFL Round 21

    Only a few h2h bets at https://aflpredictions.wordpress.com/: Bet 12% on West Coast at $2.66 Bet 2% on Melbourne at $17.50 Where bet sizes are percentage of the total pot (see https://aflpredictions.wordpress.com/how-to-bet/).
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