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Recent content by Rourke

  1. Rourke

    Opinion The AFL should introduce a 'points' system to facilitate trading

    This is the trickiest part to get right with incentives. It doesn't matter that the order is 'wrong', because you reorder the players after the Draft is over to give them an ordinal number. But it does matter that clubs can manipulate which player gets auctioned next. This was my proposal, but...
  2. Rourke

    Opinion The AFL should introduce a 'points' system to facilitate trading

    Late to this thread, but I did propose this in person to the AFL in 2010. Eventually it got bastardised into DVI, and the AFL promptly forgot what they were aiming to do with it. Your arguments are sound: clubs currently barter properties with uncertain value. Everything flows better with a...
  3. Rourke

    Round 24 Fixture

    Speculation thread is overdue. Teams in contention for finals in bold. Thursday 21st August Essendon vs Carlton, MCG (7) Friday 22nd August Collingwood vs Melbourne, MCG (7) Port Adelaide vs Gold Coast, AO (Fox) Saturday 23rd August GWS Giants vs St Kilda, Engie North Melbourne vs Adelaide...
  4. Rourke

    Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

    The single Squiggle predictive ladder is geared towards individual clubs, and how well they might go in 2025. Most algorithms also "regress to the mean" by 20-30%, which allows for uncertainty but pushes the worst ones up. After that, Squiggle puts the clubs in order of their predicted wins...
  5. Rourke

    Under a 20 team league, construct a 10 team final series

    Four-week finals series with 10 teams. Week 1 Major Qualifying Final A v B. Winner gets a week off, loser gets second chance at home Minor Qualifying Final C v D. Winner gets weakest opponent in Week 2 (could even allow them to choose). Loser gets second chance but plays away Elimination Finals...
  6. Rourke

    Stats questions

    When was the last time a team won a game, then doubled its score the next week but lost? St Kilda win 51-48 then lose 106-126
  7. Rourke

    News Lethers Gone

    Adrian Caruso was a data guy out of Champion Data then Bulldogs then Fox Footy. He's GWS's long-term recruiting manager but his role also has some list mgmt, reporting to Football GM Jason McCartney
  8. Rourke

    Draft mechanisms under review

    A rational team wouldn't do that, because at some point getting two 30% picks is better than one 50% chance. There are no guarantees with any draftee, it's all probabilities of developing them into an elite player. An economist will tell you the benefit of an auction is that bidders can express...
  9. Rourke

    Draft mechanisms under review

    I wrote that! It became the basis of the father-son & academy points, but unfortunately just became a misaligned currency. I also took the concept to the NBA and the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston 2013, with an auction using points for the first group of picks instead of a fixed...
  10. Rourke

    Stats observations

    The record is seven, achieved twice. The closest interval is remarkably only 8 years, between 2002 (Port, Bris, Adel, Coll, Ess, Melb, NM, WCE) and 2010 (Coll, Geel, StK, WB, Syd, Freo, Haw, Carl). The other is 1998 to 2013, where only Sydney appeared in both finals series and Essendon would...
  11. Rourke

    Stats observations

    The 1914 Port Adelaide team then won the club's fourth Championship of Australia, defeating Carlton 9.16-70 to 5.6-36. The next week they also thrashed a composite side chosen from the six remaining SAFL clubs, 14.14-98 to 5.10-40. With the outbreak of war, the Championship was discontinued...
  12. Rourke

    Weird football scores

    Led by two points halfway through the third quarter. Failed to score after that. Still won. Sorry I missed this at the time.
  13. Rourke

    Prediction 2020 Ladder Predictions

  14. Rourke

    News Time for the Vic teams to leave Victoria - EDIT: Hawks to Hub in Barossa, 15 teams in QLD

    This used to happen a bit, e.g. Sydney Rounds 7-8, 1987 played the only Sunday game then backed up on Friday night
  15. Rourke

    Review 1877 - The first Adelaide V St Kilda match

    Blue & White! Was that our away strip against the red & black Adelaiders?
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