Preview Round 19 Geelong vs Western Bulldogs Friday 29th July 7.50pm Simonds Stadium

Who will win?


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Strange one. Thought Kersten has played a much more important role both structurally, providing a target up the ground, and just overall impact than a Cowan. Smith for Cowan still would have left us one tall short of what we've gone with for most of the year.
I think that you're over rating Kersten's impact and under rating Cowan's.

I'm really happy with the team that the MC have picked this week.
 
True. They split it fifty fifty between ruck and forward. But I think they will go further this week because they will use blicavs in the second ruck role if he struggles in the mids to try to get him in the play which will mean even more forward time for stanley.

That's the worry with the side they have picked. Ruckman don't make good full time forwards. Stanley is maybe 50-60% there as a forward, Smith maybe 20-30%. If they are going to rotate through a key post in the forward line with Hawkins the only other tall option that is a concern for mine.
 
I think that you're over rating Kersten's impact and under rating Cowan's.

I'm really happy with the team that the MC have picked this week.
On Shane - maybe, maybe not but yes more opinion than anything. I just think our forward line has looked better when Kersten has been in the side though because at least he's mobile in comparison to Hawk when he's essentially our second tall besides a resting ruck.

On Cowan - I don't think I'm underestimating him at all. Cowan can easily be replaced by a number of others - Lang should be getting preference over him, that's for sure, Cowan can't dominate VFL. On stats alone and Langs supposed average form, he's superior to Cowan almost everywhere. I just don't really see much in Cowan - can't see him changing a game like Shane did in 10 mins vs the Bulldogs last time. To be somewhere around the midfield/half back and getting 11 touches, injuries or not, he's a 25yo footballer built like an 18yo, it's just not enough IMO to justify a spot and can't see him playing another game this year after tomorrow night. If anything I think he's being overrated purely on the basis that he hasn't made any major mistakes - he has used it well, he just doesn't get anywhere enough of it and doesn't have the build to impose himself.

Unfortunately Shane just hasn't kicked a few more goals over the last month otherwise there wouldn't be any question.
 

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I'm happy with the change. I don't see how swapping Smith for Kersten is going to ruin our forward structure.
Smith got us going in the freo game with that sublime grab and goal. In his last outing with the dogs he was fantastic taking marks across the centre line from wing to wing which then set up play. Surprised Kersten dropped.


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I thought Kersren played well on the weekend, I was definitely surprised with his omission. I can't imagine he'd be out for long. He'll kick 3 to 5 goal at a canter at VFL level.

I'm definitely not judging Cowan on his numbers on the stat sheet, based on the way he is playing he is definitely doing something structural.

Something I noticed about Cowan's positioning at stoppages on the wings last week was that he always seemed to be taking the player closest to the corridor. Like his role was to stop the other team from doing an aggressive switch. The kind that St Kilda used to cut us to pieces.
 
They are agile for talls. But they aren't near typical mids. So let's not call them typical mids cos they clearly aren't.
They also don't get anywhere near typical mid numbers and neither have been exceptional enough in the air up forward (especially Blicavs) for them to consistently be getting games over real mids. It seems quite obvious to me that if either should be dropped it has to be Blicavs seeing as he offers us nothing as a mid and less than Stanley in the ruck and up forward.
 
The Bulldogs have stayed down in Geelong for the night which suggests to me that they are treating it like an interstate game and really trying to create that siege mentality, I expect them to come out blazing with high pressure but ultimately fall away pretty badly with all their kids/injuries.

I am a bit concerned about Smith's inclusion though at the expense of one of our quickest forwards given the one way the Bulldogs could exploit us is with their speed.
 
The Bulldogs have stayed down in Geelong for the night which suggests to me that they are treating it like an interstate game and really trying to create that siege mentality

This would worry me if I was a Bulldogs supporter, trying to create things by making a situation feel like something it's not can quickly Back fire if they don't get away on the score board early.
 
I really rate the Bulldogs, but after some decent form the last two weeks I think Geelong should be able to up the intensity a little more and come away with a win, which would be so important coming into the home stretch of four games. Bulldogs still have a lot of talent on the park though, so I would not underestimate them one bit.

Cats by 12 points.
 

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Tough side to pick, best 22 is going to cause the MC some headaches.
I think Stanley should be left out. He is extremely inconsistent. He isn't much of a ruck or a forward and doesn't demand the ball enough.
Might just need a few more games to see if he can string it together, could be valuable in the finals if his form can improve

Worth the risk imo
 
very happy with the change

Kersten as a forward needs to kick more goals and take more marks otherwise he is just a poor man's Menzel

I think some people are seriously underrating Cowan, he offers a lot defensively and allows others to push up the ground, his hardness is also needed in the back half

i think henderson replaces kolo/lonners
caddy fights for a spot with blicavs, menegola, mccarthy

s selwood hasnt played enough footy this year
 
Not sure what others think, but as far as I'm concerned, Kersten's decision making still needs a lot of work. Everything else about his game is pretty good, but I think he fails to make the correct decision given the situation and the position on the ground far too often. Kicking to leads to the boundary line inside the arc, dishing off an unnecessary handball when he has a set shot within 30m...it's partly on the players calling for the ball to help a relatively young player make the right decision, but he's been a regular senior player for three years now and he should be trusted to make the correct decision in those circumstances.
 
Hawkins kicked plenty of bags early on in the season with Stanley and Smith in the side too.

You wouldn't have Smith in the side?

No I wouldn't have Smith in, especially against the Dogs. The Dogs rucks have been good at breaking even in the ruck, regardless of who the opponent is, but rarely get on top. Why waste a spot on Smith there? Far better off going with a natural forward imo, with Stanley in the ruck getting short spells from Blitz...
 
Not sure what others think, but as far as I'm concerned, Kersten's decision making still needs a lot of work. Everything else about his game is pretty good, but I think he fails to make the correct decision given the situation and the position on the ground far too often. Kicking to leads to the boundary line inside the arc, dishing off an unnecessary handball when he has a set shot within 30m...it's partly on the players calling for the ball to help a relatively young player make the right decision, but he's been a regular senior player for three years now and he should be trusted to make the correct decision in those circumstances.

The one last week where he had Mackie, McCarthy, Cockatoo and maybe another streaming into the 50 after a fast break, and made the horrible decision to kick to Mackie in a 1 on 3...

I still think he can make it, but in the team one week/out the next won't help him get there.
 
This would worry me if I was a Bulldogs supporter, trying to create things by making a situation feel like something it's not can quickly Back fire if they don't get away on the score board early.
No slight on the great city by the bay, but what will the Bulldogs do all day? If it was a day game I could sort of understand but it's a night game.
 
very happy with the change

Kersten as a forward needs to kick more goals and take more marks otherwise he is just a poor man's Menzel

I think some people are seriously underrating Cowan, he offers a lot defensively and allows others to push up the ground, his hardness is also needed in the back half

i think henderson replaces kolo/lonners
caddy fights for a spot with blicavs, menegola, mccarthy

s selwood hasnt played enough footy this year
I really really underrate Cowan
 
Somewhat suprisingly, and pleasingly, Cowan, Menegola and Bews have made a good case for best 22. The result being we have incredible depth when thinking GHS, Clark, Selwood, Kersten, Caddy, Lang and Henderson all have capabilities to fill best 22 roles. Still even believe Smedts and Vardy have something to offer if they can get on the track in next few weeks.

That is serious depth and we can now juggle lineups around to get best performance from the group.

Expect Scott to make a few changes in finals from game to game.

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