Pie 4 Life
Hall of Famer
IT has finally come. After 74 regular season matches, the top two teams have made their way to the grand final to determine who will take out the 2016 LFFL premiership.
On face value, it looks to be a David vs. Goliath battle.
In one corner, you have the reigning champ that has met every challenge thrown before it.
In the other corner, you have a side that was beaten and bruised in the qualifying final to look anything but ready to take on its conqueror a second time.
That’s right; you only have to look three weeks ago to see what the Plovers did to the Rednecks in the first week of the finals.
But the Rednecks did not throw in the towel.
They got over the line against the Armadillos then produced one of the performances of the season to stifle the Animals and make it through to the last match in 2016.
What I never realised until now is the Rednecks are actually the Richmond of the LFFL.
In their first four seasons they have finished ninth, ninth, tenth and ninth. A remarkable consistency there from the Rednecks.
The Plovers have much less data to work with, but they have fourth and premiers.
That’s right, in two seasons they have a finals win-loss ratio of 6-1. The Rednecks now sit 2-1 despite playing an extra two seasons.
Head to head? The Plovers are 4-0 and the wins have actually progressively got larger.
Have a look at the stats:
2016 QF: City Oval Plovers 534.5 defeated American Rednecks 411
2016 R9: City Oval Plovers 492 defeated American Rednecks 368
2015 R11: City Oval Plovers 441.5 defeated American Rednecks 424.5
2014 R10: City Oval Plovers 466 defeated American Rednecks 425
Finishing positions:
2015: COP Premier, AMR 9th
2014: COP lost in PF, AMR 10th
2013: AMR 9th
2012: AMR 9th
American Rednecks are the Richmond of the LFFL and I never realised! This is their first finals series
Finals:
City Oval Plovers 6-1
American Rednecks 2-1
Make no mistake, if there was betting on this match, the Plovers are probably $1.20 with the Rednecks somewhere north of $3.00. There’s no doubting who the underdog is, but can the underdog surprise us?
There’s no doubt the Rednecks have some talented players, led by Matthew Priddis and Lachie Neale, but while they might have the two best midfielders for their position in this match, the Plovers barely have a weakness.
It is how they are able to pump out 500+ scores on a regular basis. We’ll now examine their positional head-to-heads:
Backs:
Lachie Hunter and Matthew Boyd (82)
VS
Rory Laird and Leigh Montagna (80)
City Oval Plovers +2
Evenly poised in the backline, with both sides having consistent backs destined to score 40 points. A few points extra here or there will help with the cause.
CC:
Tom Scully (34)
VS
Jeremy Howe (33)
City Oval Plovers +1
Again, pretty even for an 11th player, and both are capable of big scores, with Howe more likely to score 40+, but also more likely to score below 30, whereas Scully is the more consistent of the two.
Forwards:
Jesse Hogan and Josh Bruce (58.5)
VS
Jack Gunston and Jake Stringer (69)
American Rednecks + 10.5
If the Rednecks don’t win this duel, they are stuffed. Hogan occasionally pumps out a huge score, but neither he nor Bruce are consistent like Gunston. Stringer is nothing special, and his worst is putrid, but he can notch up a solid second forward score when he’s on.
Inside Mid:
Luke Parker (39)
VS
Robbie Gray (39)
Draw.
As even a contest as they come. Both fantastic players, with Parker set to face Richmond’s one-way running midfield and Gray to face Gold Coast’s no midfield. So expect big scores in the final from these two.
Outside Mid:
Seb Ross (40.5)
VS
Lachie Neale (46.5)
American Rednecks +6.5
Neale is the best outside midfielder in the competition at the moment, but considering the Plovers have lost Nat Fyfe, finding a 40+ player in the mid-season is beyond belief. Seb Ross has starred, but doesn’t yet have the full-season consistency of Neale. You know Lachie will notch up 45+, will Ross?
Ruck:
Max Gawn (50)
VS
Matthew Kreuzer (25)
City Oval Plovers +25
This has the potential for an ugly, ugly scoreline. Gawn is the best LFFL player this year without question, but with Geelong the masters of the third man up with Blicavs and Stanley, it will be interesting to see how he scores. It will be higher than Kreuzer, however the Blues big man plays an easier Essendon, so he may well get the leg-up and get within a bulls roar of Gawn.
Tackler:
Ryan Griffen (25)
VS
Luke Breust (20)
City Oval Plovers +5
Always hard to compare tacklers. In my opinion neither are likely to make or break the game, but we know a good tacklers score can determine winners and losers. Joke’s on Breust though, unlikely Collingwood will have the ball for him to tackle...
Utility:
Tom Rockliff (92)
VS
Matthew Priddis (93)
American Rednecks +1
This is the one everyone is looking forward to. The two best utilities going head-to-head and putting everything out on the line. Priddis has a tougher match against Adelaide, while Rockliff takes on the Saints. Both can score big while their teams are being thumped because of their high tackling numbers, so don’t worry if their teams don’t win.
Overall: Before captaincy
City Oval Plovers = 421
American Rednecks = 405.5
City Oval Plovers +15.5
It summaries the game really. If it wasn’t for a forward line weakness, the Plovers would be miles ahead. They are the favourites and strong across the board. The Rednecks will need a huge game to get the job done this week, but they have shown they are capable.
Why will the Plovers win?
Simply, they are the best team in the competition. Aside from their forward line, they have players that can contribute across the board and it’s hard to see them faulting at the last hurdle.
Why will the Rednecks win?
Matthew Priddis and Lachie Neale. If those two can have big games and their opposite numbers have lower output, then they are a chance.
What is the key matchup?
It would be easy to say Tom Rockliff vs. Matthew Priddis, but for me, the biggest match-up will be Max Gawn vs. Matthew Kreuzer.
Gawn is literally twice the LFFL player Kreuzer is, and the Plovers greatest strength is the Rednecks greatest weakness.
If Kreuzer can at least get within 10 points of Gawn, then it’s game on. But the Carlton ruckman must have a big game if they are to be a genuine chance.
At the other end, the Rednecks can exploit the Plovers forward line, because Gunston is underrated as a forward and a big scorer, while Stringer is a higher quality second forward than Bruce despite his inconsistencies.
Who will win?
City Oval Plovers should win by about 40-odd points I’m tipping. If the Rednecks get over the top, I’ll literally change my signature to something of Deddy’s choice for the next 12 months (age and BigFooty appropriate).
Premiers:
2012 – Mozzie Bites
2013 – The Cheetahs
2014 – Animals run wild
2015 – City Oval Plovers
2016 - ???
On face value, it looks to be a David vs. Goliath battle.
In one corner, you have the reigning champ that has met every challenge thrown before it.
In the other corner, you have a side that was beaten and bruised in the qualifying final to look anything but ready to take on its conqueror a second time.
That’s right; you only have to look three weeks ago to see what the Plovers did to the Rednecks in the first week of the finals.
But the Rednecks did not throw in the towel.
They got over the line against the Armadillos then produced one of the performances of the season to stifle the Animals and make it through to the last match in 2016.
What I never realised until now is the Rednecks are actually the Richmond of the LFFL.
In their first four seasons they have finished ninth, ninth, tenth and ninth. A remarkable consistency there from the Rednecks.
The Plovers have much less data to work with, but they have fourth and premiers.
That’s right, in two seasons they have a finals win-loss ratio of 6-1. The Rednecks now sit 2-1 despite playing an extra two seasons.
Head to head? The Plovers are 4-0 and the wins have actually progressively got larger.
Have a look at the stats:
2016 QF: City Oval Plovers 534.5 defeated American Rednecks 411
2016 R9: City Oval Plovers 492 defeated American Rednecks 368
2015 R11: City Oval Plovers 441.5 defeated American Rednecks 424.5
2014 R10: City Oval Plovers 466 defeated American Rednecks 425
Finishing positions:
2015: COP Premier, AMR 9th
2014: COP lost in PF, AMR 10th
2013: AMR 9th
2012: AMR 9th
American Rednecks are the Richmond of the LFFL and I never realised! This is their first finals series
Finals:
City Oval Plovers 6-1
American Rednecks 2-1
Make no mistake, if there was betting on this match, the Plovers are probably $1.20 with the Rednecks somewhere north of $3.00. There’s no doubting who the underdog is, but can the underdog surprise us?
There’s no doubt the Rednecks have some talented players, led by Matthew Priddis and Lachie Neale, but while they might have the two best midfielders for their position in this match, the Plovers barely have a weakness.
It is how they are able to pump out 500+ scores on a regular basis. We’ll now examine their positional head-to-heads:
Backs:
Lachie Hunter and Matthew Boyd (82)
VS
Rory Laird and Leigh Montagna (80)
City Oval Plovers +2
Evenly poised in the backline, with both sides having consistent backs destined to score 40 points. A few points extra here or there will help with the cause.
CC:
Tom Scully (34)
VS
Jeremy Howe (33)
City Oval Plovers +1
Again, pretty even for an 11th player, and both are capable of big scores, with Howe more likely to score 40+, but also more likely to score below 30, whereas Scully is the more consistent of the two.
Forwards:
Jesse Hogan and Josh Bruce (58.5)
VS
Jack Gunston and Jake Stringer (69)
American Rednecks + 10.5
If the Rednecks don’t win this duel, they are stuffed. Hogan occasionally pumps out a huge score, but neither he nor Bruce are consistent like Gunston. Stringer is nothing special, and his worst is putrid, but he can notch up a solid second forward score when he’s on.
Inside Mid:
Luke Parker (39)
VS
Robbie Gray (39)
Draw.
As even a contest as they come. Both fantastic players, with Parker set to face Richmond’s one-way running midfield and Gray to face Gold Coast’s no midfield. So expect big scores in the final from these two.
Outside Mid:
Seb Ross (40.5)
VS
Lachie Neale (46.5)
American Rednecks +6.5
Neale is the best outside midfielder in the competition at the moment, but considering the Plovers have lost Nat Fyfe, finding a 40+ player in the mid-season is beyond belief. Seb Ross has starred, but doesn’t yet have the full-season consistency of Neale. You know Lachie will notch up 45+, will Ross?
Ruck:
Max Gawn (50)
VS
Matthew Kreuzer (25)
City Oval Plovers +25
This has the potential for an ugly, ugly scoreline. Gawn is the best LFFL player this year without question, but with Geelong the masters of the third man up with Blicavs and Stanley, it will be interesting to see how he scores. It will be higher than Kreuzer, however the Blues big man plays an easier Essendon, so he may well get the leg-up and get within a bulls roar of Gawn.
Tackler:
Ryan Griffen (25)
VS
Luke Breust (20)
City Oval Plovers +5
Always hard to compare tacklers. In my opinion neither are likely to make or break the game, but we know a good tacklers score can determine winners and losers. Joke’s on Breust though, unlikely Collingwood will have the ball for him to tackle...
Utility:
Tom Rockliff (92)
VS
Matthew Priddis (93)
American Rednecks +1
This is the one everyone is looking forward to. The two best utilities going head-to-head and putting everything out on the line. Priddis has a tougher match against Adelaide, while Rockliff takes on the Saints. Both can score big while their teams are being thumped because of their high tackling numbers, so don’t worry if their teams don’t win.
Overall: Before captaincy
City Oval Plovers = 421
American Rednecks = 405.5
City Oval Plovers +15.5
It summaries the game really. If it wasn’t for a forward line weakness, the Plovers would be miles ahead. They are the favourites and strong across the board. The Rednecks will need a huge game to get the job done this week, but they have shown they are capable.
Why will the Plovers win?
Simply, they are the best team in the competition. Aside from their forward line, they have players that can contribute across the board and it’s hard to see them faulting at the last hurdle.
Why will the Rednecks win?
Matthew Priddis and Lachie Neale. If those two can have big games and their opposite numbers have lower output, then they are a chance.
What is the key matchup?
It would be easy to say Tom Rockliff vs. Matthew Priddis, but for me, the biggest match-up will be Max Gawn vs. Matthew Kreuzer.
Gawn is literally twice the LFFL player Kreuzer is, and the Plovers greatest strength is the Rednecks greatest weakness.
If Kreuzer can at least get within 10 points of Gawn, then it’s game on. But the Carlton ruckman must have a big game if they are to be a genuine chance.
At the other end, the Rednecks can exploit the Plovers forward line, because Gunston is underrated as a forward and a big scorer, while Stringer is a higher quality second forward than Bruce despite his inconsistencies.
Who will win?
City Oval Plovers should win by about 40-odd points I’m tipping. If the Rednecks get over the top, I’ll literally change my signature to something of Deddy’s choice for the next 12 months (age and BigFooty appropriate).
Premiers:
2012 – Mozzie Bites
2013 – The Cheetahs
2014 – Animals run wild
2015 – City Oval Plovers
2016 - ???
