AFL 2017 - AFL Round 11

[balmainforever]

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Port Adelaide |$1.20|$1.19|$1.20|$1.20|$1.20|$1.19
\Hawthorn |$4.60|$4.75|$4.60|$4.75|$4.80|$4.75
\|line:31.5|line:33.5|line:33.5|line:31.5|line:33.5|line:32.5
\total score:|***.5|183.5|***.5|183.5|183.5|184.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Geelong |$2.10|$2.10|$2.10|$2.10|$2.15|$2.12
\Adelaide |$1.75|$1.73|$1.73|$1.77|$1.72|$1.73
\|line:A2.5|line:A4.5|line:A4.5|line:A4.5|line:A4.5|line:A5.5
\total score:|***.5|192.5|***.5|192.5|193.5|195.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Gold Coast|$2.45|$2.40|$2.50|$2.50|$2.40|$2.42
\West Coast|$1.57|$1.57|$1.52|$1.55|$1.58|$1.57
\|line:10.5|line:9.5|line:10.5|line:10.5|line:9.5|line:9.5
\total score:|***.5|186.5|***.5|188.5|188.5|189.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\G-W Sydney |$1.22|$1.25|$1.23|$1.22|$1.22|$1.21
\Essendon|$4.30|$4.00|$4.15|$4.50|$4.35|$4.50
\|line:27.5|line:28.5|line:27.5|line:28.5|line:29.5|line:28.5
\total score:|***.5|193.5|***.5|190.5|193.5|191.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\North Melb.|$2.15|$2.10|$2.10|$2.15|$2.15|$2.12
\Richmond |$1.70|$1.74|$1.73|$1.73|$1.72|$1.73
\|line:5.5|line:5.5|line:4.5|line:5.5|line:4.5|line:5.5
\total score:|***.5|186.5|***.5|186.5|185.5|186.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Fremantle |$1.78|$1.71|$1.72|$1.77|$1.78|$1.76
\Collingwood|$2.05|$2.15|$2.10|$2.10|$2.05|$2.07
\|line:5.5|line:4.5|line:5.5|line:4.5|line:3.5|line:4.5
\total score:|***.5|172.5|***.5|172.5|171.5|172.5

ODDS AT 13.45 ON 30/5/17

 

[balmainforever]

opening prices

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Port Adelaide |$*.**|$1.15|$1.15|$1.15|$1.16|$1.20
\Hawthorn |$*.**|$5.50|$5.25|$5.00|$5.25|$4.50
\|line:**.5|line:35.5|line:35.5|line:34.5|line:33.5|line:30.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Geelong |$*.**|$1.91|$1.90|$1.80|$1.95|$1.85
\Adelaide |$*.**|$1.89|$1.90|$1.95|$1.87|$1.95
\|line:**.5|line:A0.5|line:N/L|line:G1.5|line:A1.5|line:G1.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Gold Coast|$*.**|$2.65|$2.65|$2.55|$2.70|$2.65
\West Coast|$*.**|$1.49|$1.47|$1.48|$1.47|$1.48
\|line:**.5|line:13.5|line:13.5|line:14.5|line:13.5|line:13.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\G-W Sydney |$*.**|$1.26|$1.23|$1.22|$1.25|$1.23
\Essendon|$*.**|$3.90|$4.10|$4.00|$4.00|$4.20
\|line:**.5|line:24.5|line:27.5|line:28.5|line:24.5|line:27.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\North Melb.|$*.**|$2.07|$2.00|$1.95|$2.00|$2.00
\Richmond |$*.**|$1.76|$1.77|$1.80|$1.82|$1.80
\|line:**.5|line:3.5|line:3.5|line:2.5|line:2.5|line:2.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Fremantle |$*.**|$1.59|$1.60|$1.57|$1.58|$1.60
\Collingwood|$*.**|$2.36|$2.30|$2.30|$2.40|$2.35
\|line:**.5|line:9.5|line:9.5|line:9.5|line:9.5|line:9.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5

ODDS AT 16.00 ON 24/5/17

 

[mookieb]

Given WC are randomly terrible on the road and GC are normally pretty good at home. GC +13.5 or for the win at $2.65 looks attractive. I'm on earlier at +17.5. Certainly giving Melb a bit of a touch up at the moment and looking good. Ablett back next week would also certainly help.

It's a bad spot for the Hawks I reckon. Tough game with a remarkable win but front up on 2 six day breaks against Port on the rebound who have been belting teams outside of the top 8. Hopped on a week ago at Port -21.5.

I'm also going to jump on Freo -9.5 and they should be too good for Coll at home.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

I like GC h2h, Kennedy hurt his achilles , Shuey injured his quad and LeCras injured.

 

[hedgedhog]

Gold Coast (+11.5), Adelaide (-1.5) and Collingwood (+6.5) currently look like value for the upcoming weekend.

 

[Flying frog]

Wanted to get an opinion guys,
Looking at dons v giants .

Found a stat the other week from someone on here. Teams are something like 2-8 covering the line following a trip to Perth . I now Carlton covered yesterday but that was basically on the siren.
The giants had a game plan yesterday to get numbers back and double team the eagles talls and it worked to perfection. The eagles were defiantly missing lecras and shuey at there feet, Don't think the giants will go with that game plan again this week. think the bombers with there small running forward line can give the giants some head aches. Short sharp kicks , Quick ball movement and hard running seems like the key to beating them and the dons are defiantly good at that.. Look at how the pies, dogs and tigers approached the contest. yes they all didn't get the win but I think the blue print is there.
That was a massive game for the giants yesterday and how much longer can they keep winning with the squad they have , on a 6 day break and flying back from Perth..








On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[benno_]

2U Port 3rd quarter -8.5 @1.93 (SB)
(you can get -7.5 @1.87 at WillHill, I just need to sort out account verification stuff and can't use it atm)

In 3rd quarters: Port rank 2nd, Hawks 18th. Port have won 7/9 and Hawks have lost 8/10. Port have covered that line in 4/7 wins. All 8 of Hawks 3rd quarter losses have been by 10+ (7/8 have been 16+) at an average of 26.

 

[targett]

This week's play's so far

Kangaroos +7.5
Magpies + 6.5
Crows -1.5
Suns +10.5 and +11.5

See how the week pans out , 1 middle would be nice.

 

[benno_]

Crows 3rd -0.5 @1.87 (SB)

Crows rank 3rd, Geelong rank 16th. Crows have won 7/10. Losses were Bombers by 12 (Flogged them in the first half), North by 11 (In Tassie), Melbourne by 37 (Rank 4th). Geelong have lost 7/10, only wins were Freo (Round 1), Hawks (Rank 18th), Gold Coast (by only 2 and they Rank 15th)

 

[Flying frog]

Crows 3rd -0.5 @1.87 (SB)

Crows rank 3rd, Geelong rank 16th. Crows have won 7/10. Losses were Bombers by 12 (Flogged them in the first half), North by 11 (In Tassie), Melbourne by 37 (Rank 4th). Geelong have lost 7/10, only wins were Freo (Round 1), Hawks (Rank 18th), Gold Coast (by only 2 and they Rank 15th)

What about crows 2nd quarter Benno. Aren't they 10/10 in the 2nd this year!


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[targett]

What about crows 2nd quarter Benno. Aren't they 10/10 in the 2nd this year!


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Yea -0.5 $1.87

 

[benno_]

GWS 4th -7.5 @1.86
GWS Rank 1st (F/A 161%) Bombers 16th (F/A 71%). GWS have won 8/10, Bombers have lost 7/10. GWS have only lost to Adelaide (Rank 2nd) and Saints. Only 3 teams Bombers have beaten are Lions (18th) and Hawks (13th) in rounds 1-2, as well as Pies (10th).

Tigers 4th -1.5 @1.84
Liked Richmond last week and do again this week. Tigers rank 4th and have won 7/10 and a percentage of 154%. North Rank 12th and have won 4/10

and getting on a multi of:
Port 3rd -8.5
Adelaide 3rd -0.5
GWS 4th -7.5
Tigers 4th -1.5
@12.35

 

[benno_]

What about crows 2nd quarter Benno. Aren't they 10/10 in the 2nd this year!

2nd
Crows - 10/10, Rank 1st, 259%
Cats - 5/10, Rank 6th, 132% (3rd highest 2nd quarter % in the league)

3rd
Crows - 7/10, Rank 3rd, 147%
Cats (Their worst quarter) - 3/10, Rank 16th, 75%

I personally like the 3rd quarter more. First standout reason is the large 13 rank points difference (3rd vs 16th) in the 3rd compared to the 2nd which only has 5 (1st vs 6th). The 3rd is the Cats worst quarter while the 2nd is their second best one and has a percentage of 132%. Geelong's also won their last 2 second quarters and lost their last 3 third quarters. The game is at Simonds Stadium and Cats' only other 2 games their happen to have been the last 2 weeks. They won both 2nd quarters beating Port 33 to 17 and Dogs 35 to 0. While they lost both the 3rd quarters to Port 24 to 27 and to the Dogs 6 to 41. IMO even though Crows are 10/10 in the 2nd, the way I'm interpreting the stats I feel the 3rd is the better bet and the 2nd a bit risky. You'd think they'd lose one at some point and while I don't like betting/not betting on something because its 'due', away against the 6th ranked Cats, with the third highest 2nd quarter %, won their last 2 at home by 16 and 35 seems as good of a situation as any for Crows to lose one. If you think of the quarter ranks like the actual premiership ladder positions I'd feel more confident betting on 3rd on the ladder to beat 16th compared to 1st to beat 6th.

In saying that though Crows are still 10/10 and dominating 2nd quarters so you can definitely make a case for it. If you really like it go with the 2nd (or both), I find going with your own gut feel is better most of the time. I could be completely wrong and Crows dominate the 2nd and get flogged in the 3rd lol

 

[Flying frog]

2nd
Crows - 10/10, Rank 1st, 259%
Cats - 5/10, Rank 6th, 132% (3rd highest 2nd quarter % in the league)

3rd
Crows - 7/10, Rank 3rd, 147%
Cats (Their worst quarter) - 3/10, Rank 16th, 75%

I personally like the 3rd quarter more. First standout reason is the large 13 rank points difference (3rd vs 16th) in the 3rd compared to the 2nd which only has 5 (1st vs 6th). The 3rd is the Cats worst quarter while the 2nd is their second best one and has a percentage of 132%. Geelong's also won their last 2 second quarters and lost their last 3 third quarters. The game is at Simonds Stadium and Cats' only other 2 games their happen to have been the last 2 weeks. They won both 2nd quarters beating Port 33 to 17 and Dogs 35 to 0. While they lost both the 3rd quarters to Port 24 to 27 and to the Dogs 6 to 41. IMO even though Crows are 10/10 in the 2nd, the way I'm interpreting the stats I feel the 3rd is the better bet and the 2nd a bit risky. You'd think they'd lose one at some point and while I don't like betting/not betting on something because its 'due', away against the 6th ranked Cats, with the third highest 2nd quarter %, won their last 2 at home by 16 and 35 seems as good of a situation as any for Crows to lose one. If you think of the quarter ranks like the actual premiership ladder positions I'd feel more confident betting on 3rd on the ladder to beat 16th compared to 1st to beat 6th.

In saying that though Crows are still 10/10 and dominating 2nd quarters so you can definitely make a case for it. If you really like it go with the 2nd (or both), I find going with your own gut feel is better most of the time. I could be completely wrong and Crows dominate the 2nd and get flogged in the 3rd lol

Thanks for your stats much appreciated, good work.
I'm going to follow the 2nd q trend of the crows. Can't go past that. If it gets up I will double up on the 3rd q line .




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[Zevon]

It's a bad spot for the Hawks I reckon. Tough game with a remarkable win but front up on 2 six day breaks against Port on the rebound who have been belting teams outside of the top 8. Hopped on a week ago at Port -21.5

Well done grabbing this early. I'm still very keen at -31.5 and may also have a crack at 40+ so -21.5 was an excellent find.

 

[targett]

Thanks for your stats much appreciated, good work.
I'm going to follow the 2nd q trend of the crows. Can't go past that. If it gets up I will double up on the 3rd q line .




On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Yea same same cant ignore 10/10

 

[Flying frog]

GWS 4th -7.5 @1.86
GWS Rank 1st (F/A 161%) Bombers 16th (F/A 71%). GWS have won 8/10, Bombers have lost 7/10. GWS have only lost to Adelaide (Rank 2nd) and Saints. Only 3 teams Bombers have beaten are Lions (18th) and Hawks (13th) in rounds 1-2, as well as Pies (10th).

Tigers 4th -1.5 @1.84
Liked Richmond last week and do again this week. Tigers rank 4th and have won 7/10 and a percentage of 154%. North Rank 12th and have won 4/10

and getting on a multi of:
Port 3rd -8.5
Adelaide 3rd -0.5
GWS 4th -7.5
Tigers 4th -1.5
@12.35

Have a look into the bombers first quarters , they have won 8/10 and the losses have been by 2 points to Melbourne and 36 points to Adelaide . GWS haven't covered the spread in there last 3 first quarters. Could be something to work with


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[Vhaluus]

Have a look into the bombers first quarters , they have won 8/10 and the losses have been by 2 points to Melbourne and 36 points to Adelaide . GWS haven't covered the spread in there last 3 first quarters. Could be something to work with


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Bombers actually played better in the first quarter vs us than the Scoreboard indicated in my opinion as well.

For what that non-statistical opinion is worth.

 

[TheScream]

Bye rounds always throw up some surprise results so will be proceeding cautiously over the next few weeks

1U Hawks TT UNDER 75.5
0.5U GC (2.6)
1U GC - WC OVER 186.5
0.5U Collingwood (2.2)
1U Freo - Pies UNDER 173.5

 

[benno_]

Bombers actually played better in the first quarter vs us than the Scoreboard indicated in my opinion as well.

For what that non-statistical opinion is worth.

I don't really love it just because they're the top 2 first quarter teams, it could go either way really. The +7.5 is handy for the bombers but not enough to tempt me into getting on it.

 

[DaicosianMarvels]

Pies under 83.5 points paying 1.95 with Bet365. That's value of the round/ year.

Crows, GC and Bombers at the line the other three I like for this round.

 

[targett]

Just some extra activity to get us through till Thursday night

Crown -Place a Head to Head Bet on State of Origin Game 1
If the team you back lose the match by 6 points or less we'll match your stake up to $50 with a Bonus Bet

Tab- Place a head to head bet on State of Origin Game 1 with your TAB Account, and if your team leads at half time but doesn’t win, get a bonus bet up to $55*.

Palmer - Money back as a bonus bet if *Lead at the 60 minute mark but lose up to $100
- Qld Head to Head $2.50 $25 Max bet

TabTouch- Head to Head Team loses by 6 points or less money back up to $50

 

[karaoke]

Just some extra activity to get us through till Thursday night

Crown -Place a Head to Head Bet on State of Origin Game 1
If the team you back lose the match by 6 points or less we'll match your stake up to $50 with a Bonus Bet

Tab- Place a head to head bet on State of Origin Game 1 with your TAB Account, and if your team leads at half time but doesn’t win, get a bonus bet up to $55*.

Palmer - Money back as a bonus bet if *Lead at the 60 minute mark but lose up to $100
- Qld Head to Head $2.50 $25 Max bet

TabTouch- Head to Head Team loses by 6 points or less money back up to $50

topbetta

1) H2H team leads by 8 then loses, bonus bet up to $50
2) 1st bet only with TB, QLD to win H2H at $7, with amount above price taken at time of bet, settled as bonus bets up to $7 (max. bet $25)

 

[iluvparis]

Just some extra activity to get us through till Thursday night

Crown -Place a Head to Head Bet on State of Origin Game 1
If the team you back lose the match by 6 points or less we'll match your stake up to $50 with a Bonus Bet

Tab- Place a head to head bet on State of Origin Game 1 with your TAB Account, and if your team leads at half time but doesn’t win, get a bonus bet up to $55*.

Palmer - Money back as a bonus bet if *Lead at the 60 minute mark but lose up to $100
- Qld Head to Head $2.50 $25 Max bet

TabTouch- Head to Head Team loses by 6 points or less money back up to $50

Sportsbet - Double your winnings on first H2H bet (max $55 - paid in bonus bet).

Combines well with the Palmer $2.50 QLD offer if you back NSW

 

[targett]

Wanted to get an opinion guys,
Looking at dons v giants .

Found a stat the other week from someone on here. Teams are something like 2-8 covering the line following a trip to Perth . I now Carlton covered yesterday but that was basically on the siren.
The giants had a game plan yesterday to get numbers back and double team the eagles talls and it worked to perfection. The eagles were defiantly missing lecras and shuey at there feet, Don't think the giants will go with that game plan again this week. think the bombers with there small running forward line can give the giants some head aches. Short sharp kicks , Quick ball movement and hard running seems like the key to beating them and the dons are defiantly good at that.. Look at how the pies, dogs and tigers approached the contest. yes they all didn't get the win but I think the blue print is there.
That was a massive game for the giants yesterday and how much longer can they keep winning with the squad they have , on a 6 day break and flying back from Perth..








On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Yep 2/8 returning from Perth.
Ive just added Bombers +30.5