Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Currently which team below you on the ladder drafts a KPF?

Brander is almost guaranteed to be there at pick 5, so to Darcy Fogarty. Fogarty might not be KPP size, but he is close and has the frame to impact right away.

I fully expect Brander to be there.

Fogarty I'm thinking is probably there also, though he hasn't done anything certainly through the U18 champs to convince me. He's one I'd pass on and let someone else pick unless I see something drastically better from him between now and seasons end.

Can't see any of the teams with picks ahead of Collingwood at present looking to select a tall. All have more pressing needs.

 

[Cammy2Benjamin]

St Kilda will probably have the 7th and 8th pick in the draft, assuming they keep it that (which they should given there lack of quality depth) who do we go after? Two quick mids or a mid and KPD?

 

[Knightmare]

St Kilda will probably have the 7th and 8th pick in the draft, assuming they keep it that (which they should given there lack of quality depth) who do we go after? Two quick mids or a mid and KPD?

Lochie O'Brien might be one. Jack Higgins and Jaidyn Stephenson if there are two others I could see as list fits.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Have any Eastern Ranges boys been drafted to St Kilda?

 

[GoGrows]

I fully expect Brander to be there.

Fogarty I'm thinking is probably there also, though he hasn't done anything certainly through the U18 champs to convince me. He's one I'd pass on and let someone else pick unless I see something drastically better from him between now and seasons end.

Can't see any of the teams with picks ahead of Collingwood at present looking to select a tall. All have more pressing needs.

Going by the current ladder:

Lions-agree wont go KPF

North Melbourne- need to rebuild their midfield so will likely go Rayner or midfielder

Carlton-Could go Brander to pair with Mackay, but prob will go midfield

GC-agree wont go KPF

Fremantle- Do need KPF. Could go Brander here


So there are a couple teams who might go KPF before Pies.

 

[theGav56]

Going by the current ladder:

Lions-agree wont go KPF

North Melbourne- need to rebuild their midfield so will likely go Rayner or midfielder

Carlton-Could go Brander to pair with Mackay, but prob will go midfield

GC-agree wont go KPF

Fremantle- Do need KPF. Could go Brander here


So there are a couple teams who might go KPF before Pies.

I would have thought Brander would be Fremantle's most likely selection, along with Fogarty.

 

[kotor]

Knightmare,

Just wondering on your thoughts of how Zac Fisher is tracking at Carlton? Is Neale still a decent comparison? Obviously getting plenty of opportunity at Carlton but has looked good at times.

Thank you as always for you great work!

 

[foj1]

Lochie O'Brien might be one. Jack Higgins and Jaidyn Stephenson if there are two others I could see as list fits.

I think the Saints should consider Hayes
Longer ok but Hickey not up to it. Hayes could be a special talent and they could still get a good midfielder

 

[Prochard123]

I certainly agree with the idea of trading down to multiple late first rounders

As I thought of it myself too as well before reading your almanac this year.

Young KPFs are rarely complete packages, and rankings tend to be quite subjective making the selections very hard to predict.

This is especially true in drafts with exceptional KPP depth. I like to use the 2014 as an example, all of Mccartin, Moore, Goddard, Lever, Wright, Marchbank (to a lesser extent) were touted as potential top 5 picks. In the end, only just over half of them went in the top 10 let alone top 5, and the pick of the lot wasn't in the top 10 either. When the supply of KPPs are high, it's almost inevitable for some elite key position talents to drop to later stages of the first round or even the second round who may have been top 5 worthy in another year where the supply isn't as high.

It's drafts like this and 2014, that teams with weak key position stack need to capitalise. Drafts like this could set teams up for years of success with a powerful and steady spine. It is for this exact reason why I think picking De Goey at pick 5 over Peter Wright who was thought to be a potential #1 pick in 2014, regardless of De Goey's performance or form, is a HUGE mistake drafting/strategic wise, and that unless De Goey becomes a brownlow medalist or someone of Joel Selwood or Scott Pendlebury's level, picking De Goey at 5 cannot be deemed as a win given our needs at the time. Even if De Goey does become a true A grade inside midfielder, which is actually looking kind of likely right now, the pick wasn't the right move as it was a low % play.

 

[Knightmare]

Have any Eastern Ranges boys been drafted to St Kilda?

Here's a list if you're interested in those past Eastern boys drafted to AFL clubs: http://websites.sportstg.com/assoc_page.cgi?c=0-3020-0-0-0&sID=107191

Going by the current ladder:

Lions-agree wont go KPF

North Melbourne- need to rebuild their midfield so will likely go Rayner or midfielder

Carlton-Could go Brander to pair with Mackay, but prob will go midfield

GC-agree wont go KPF

Fremantle- Do need KPF. Could go Brander here


So there are a couple teams who might go KPF before Pies.

Fremantle could.

Knightmare,

Just wondering on your thoughts of how Zac Fisher is tracking at Carlton? Is Neale still a decent comparison? Obviously getting plenty of opportunity at Carlton but has looked good at times.

Thank you as always for you great work!

Fisher has some way to go before he becomes Neale. That would be a great outcome if he can. My expectations aren't that high, with Neale one of the very few useful sub 180cm mids.

I would have liked to have seen Fisher have some bigger AFL games this season, based on my pre-draft expectations. Still getting game so it's a pass mark to date.

I certainly agree with the idea of trading down to multiple late first rounders

As I thought of it myself too as well before reading your almanac this year.

Young KPFs are rarely complete packages, and rankings tend to be quite subjective making the selections very hard to predict.

This is especially true in drafts with exceptional KPP depth. I like to use the 2014 as an example, all of Mccartin, Moore, Goddard, Lever, Wright, Marchbank (to a lesser extent) were touted as potential top 5 picks. In the end, only just over half of them went in the top 10 let alone top 5, and the pick of the lot wasn't in the top 10 either. When the supply of KPPs are high, it's almost inevitable for some elite key position talents to drop to later stages of the first round or even the second round who may have been top 5 worthy in another year where the supply isn't as high.

It's drafts like this and 2014, that teams with weak key position stack need to capitalise. Drafts like this could set teams up for years of success with a powerful and steady spine. It is for this exact reason why I think picking De Goey at pick 5 over Peter Wright who was thought to be a potential #1 pick in 2014, regardless of De Goey's performance or form, is a HUGE mistake drafting/strategic wise, and that unless De Goey becomes a brownlow medalist or someone of Joel Selwood or Scott Pendlebury's level, picking De Goey at 5 cannot be deemed as a win given our needs at the time. Even if De Goey does become a true A grade inside midfielder, which is actually looking kind of likely right now, the pick wasn't the right move as it was a low % play.

If Collingwood start winning games and finish ahead of Fremantle - who I'd be picking to take Brander.

There isn't much choice for Collingwood, as far as I'm concerned, but to trade that pick down for a package of picks later in the first round. The same options at those picks will be available regardless of whether picking at 6 or 18, or so it's feeling like at this point.

Overall, my views align with yours in terms of what I believe Collingwood's ideal approach should be.

Just as Collingwood should have taken Wright/Moore/McKenzie (maybe not McKenzie in hindsight), the point remains, if it's a strong season for KPPs. Get them while you can. And if you can draft into a range where there are a bunch of good ones - I quite like the picks around 20 this year for talls. It's a wise move, in a position of a club such as Collingwood with lean long term key position stocks, to trade into and have a key position themed offseason which is long overdue.

 

[ringo1]

I would have thought Brander would be Fremantle's most likely selection, along with Fogarty.

Did Brander play for Geelong Grammar on the weekend?

 

[Betts are off]

Knightmare.

In your opinion who is the best Ruck in this draft class day 1, and is there any raw Ruck prospects that could surpass them in 2-3 years?

Looking for potential Sauce Jacobs protege's

 

[foodles05]

Hey Knightmare,

What are your thoughts on Issac Moller? No invite to the combine but hardly surprising given that he is a late late pick or rookie at best in my opinion.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare.

In your opinion who is the best Ruck in this draft class day 1, and is there any raw Ruck prospects that could surpass them in 2-3 years?

Looking for potential Sauce Jacobs protege's

We've got three I feel are neck and neck. Sam Hayes, Callum Coleman-Jones and Brayden Crossley.

Hayes is the more complete of the three and marginally the more advanced, though the other two have made ground. Within three years, he also is the one expect to pass Jacobs by first, given his more advanced and complete game.

Hey Knightmare,

What are your thoughts on Issac Moller? No invite to the combine but hardly surprising given that he is a late late pick or rookie at best in my opinion.

Not one I've seen/noticed much of.

Didn't play, or if he did, didn't notice him in any of the televised SA games through the u18 championships.

Can't make comment on his game, not having made any notes/observations of him.

 

[Knightmare]

10 burning questions AFL Draft 26/7/2017: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/20157463/knightmare-afl-draft-wrap-10-burning-questions

Among other things: including notes on top picks, who is rising/dropping, dynamics in the draft, father sons, academy players, mature agers and some of the top 2018 prospects.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Collingwood aren't going to trade out of the top 5 to late first round for one of your depth players. That would be ridiculous.

If I was Collingwood I'd bid on ballenden early and if matched take brander ( presuming Rayner Davies-Uniake and Constable are gone who I rate best 3 mids / utilities

Coffield is the smoky - could be a more dynamic version of Andrew Mackie which is something worth drafting

 

[M Malice]

10 burning questions AFL Draft 26/7/2017: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/20157463/knightmare-afl-draft-wrap-10-burning-questions

Among other things: including notes on top picks, who is rising/dropping, dynamics in the draft, father sons, academy players, mature agers and some of the top 2018 prospects.

If Thomas Berry is as good as his brother I want him at the Lions, what sort of player is he KM, similar to Jarrod? Can you compare his style to anyone going around now or in the past?

 

[HedgeFund]

10 burning questions AFL Draft 26/7/2017: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/20157463/knightmare-afl-draft-wrap-10-burning-questions

Among other things: including notes on top picks, who is rising/dropping, dynamics in the draft, father sons, academy players, mature agers and some of the top 2018 prospects.

Interesting to note only two of the father/sons you mention were given national Combine invites.

Do we make anything of that? Or is the fact they're F/S eligible mean naturally less clubs show interest unless they're out and out guns.

 

[HedgeFund]

Where are the combine invites posted?

AFL website has them, as does AFL Draft Central

 

[Bicks]

Knightmare.

In your opinion who is the best Ruck in this draft class day 1, and is there any raw Ruck prospects that could surpass them in 2-3 years?

Looking for potential Sauce Jacobs protege's

Doubt we'd use an early draft pick on a Ruckman personally, much sooner look at later rounds/rookie guys like a local lad here GWV Rebel Lloyd Meek who's a competent Ruck, reasonably agile for a big lad, covers the ground well and most importantly for a big bloke has good foot skills or even a more speculative Western Jet's Tristan Xerri. Not sure we'll be taking our 2017 1st pick to the draft if we're still into Bryce Gibbs either and all the less speculative big men will be off the board by our 2nd. What could change all that is if Lever and/or McGovern decide to not re-sign.

Thoughts Knightmare

 

[AFLDraftCentral]

Where are the combine invites posted?

 

[Knightmare]

If I was Collingwood I'd bid on ballenden early and if matched take brander ( presuming Rayner Davies-Uniake and Constable are gone who I rate best 3 mids / utilities

Coffield is the smoky - could be a more dynamic version of Andrew Mackie which is something worth drafting

If Brander isn't there and the Pies keep the pick. I wouldn't say no to bidding on Ballenden. Could be a seriously good key defender.

Constable can push up the draft but still for me needs to win more of it in the contest and have greater impact on games. He can rack it up, but I rarely feel him influencing games.

Coffield I like. Very developable but he's another I want to see show he can win it in the contest.

If Thomas Berry is as good as his brother I want him at the Lions, what sort of player is he KM, similar to Jarrod? Can you compare his style to anyone going around now or in the past?

Thomas feels like a more damaging version of his brother and slightly better version of his brother.

He's probably even more athletic and has outstanding evasiveness. Skills are better and more damaging. Very capable ball winner at stoppages and again slightly better here than Jarrod. Like his brother, very versatile. I like his game a lot. He's just not as tall, yet, at around 185cm.

I'll hold off on a solid player comparison for now. But that's a rough early feel.

 

[Knightmare]

Doubt we'd use an early draft pick on a Ruckman personally, much sooner look at later rounds/rookie guys like a local lad here GWV Rebel Lloyd Meek who's a competent Ruck, reasonably agile for a big lad, covers the ground well and most importantly for a big bloke has good foot skills or even a more speculative Western Jet's Tristan Xerri. Not sure we'll be taking our 2017 1st pick to the draft if we're still into Bryce Gibbs either and all the less speculative big men will be off the board by our 2nd. What could change all that is if Lever and/or McGovern decide to not re-sign.

Thoughts Knightmare

Meek and Xerri are both possible speculative ruckmen.

Xerri has in patches played his best footy up forward, but for me doesn't do enough often enough. On his day though, he's a potentially really damaging contested mark.

Meek as a rookie is more a developable type I'd consider. He has a good physical presence to him.

Adelaide could easily go local and get Jordan Sweet who is going well in the SANFL reserves and in my view was stiff last year. He's winning the hitout numbers more weeks than not and still finds enough of it.

The depth of ruckmen is solid this year, so clubs may find one in the rookie draft who develops.

 

[Bicks]

If Brander isn't there and the Pies keep the pick. I wouldn't say no to bidding on Ballenden. Could be a seriously good key defender.

Constable can push up the draft but still for me needs to win more of it in the contest and have greater impact on games. He can rack it up, but I rarely feel him influencing games.

Coffield I like. Very developable but he's another I want to see show he can win it in the contest.



Thomas feels like a more damaging version of his brother and slightly better version of his brother.

He's probably even more athletic and has outstanding evasiveness. Skills are better and more damaging. Very capable ball winner at stoppages and again slightly better here than Jarrod. Like his brother, very versatile. I like his game a lot. He's just not as tall, yet, at around 185cm.

I'll hold off on a solid player comparison for now. But that's a rough early feel.

I've seen plenty of young Tom Berry here, kid's as hard as a cat's head and never, ever takes a backward step just like his brother Jarrod....though just like pre-draft 2016 I still think you underrated Jarrod then, and still do. The reason you may have underrated Jarrod might be because you were unaware he virtually had no pre-season recovering from surgery and then had some injury issues early in the season and never really got going until late in the year.

I was always confident Jarrod would play AFL midfield even though he had limited exposure in his draft year due to fitness and injury, late in the season he played several games in the midfield and absolutely killed it. Very significant that he's played the majority of the season for Brisbane in the midfield and 2 weeks ago Chris Fagan gave him the job on Joel Selwood who he restricted so well that the Coach rapped his shut down job in the after match presser.

I'd also strongly disagree on Tom being more athletic, Jarrod would have him covered there and whilst he may have better all round foot skills he certainly doesn't have the penetrating long kick Jarrod possesses. Like you I think Tom is very talented and has all the requisites to play AFL midfield...the standout quality being his hardness in the contest.

 

[blueiris]

If I was Collingwood I'd bid on ballenden early and if matched take brander ( presuming Rayner Davies-Uniake and Constable are gone who I rate best 3 mids / utilities

Coffield is the smoky - could be a more dynamic version of Andrew Mackie which is something worth drafting

I don't think Lions will take Ballenden if the bids too early Brisbane has shown that if they rate someone higher they won't just take the local kid Ballenden is a 14 to 20 pick for mine