Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

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He's just not kicking it 60m, breaking the lines or dominating guys 1v1 in the goal square at ground level, aerially or with his strength 1v1 when isolated. He doesn't have those weapons. Those are weapons. Brayshaw doesn't have that.

How ironic - you have just described.......Hamish Brayshaw!:p
 
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Cal Twomey just tweeted the 2km results for Rayner and Fogarty.

7:57 for Rayner
7:33 for Fogarty

Apparently this is the majority consensus #1 draft pick.......Cam can barely run 4 minute kms and he’s projected to be a “bull” midfielder?

Wow-wee.
 
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Knightmare, these rumours that Stephenson could be a draft slider due to a heart irregularity.

From your contacts is there foundation and if so any chance he gets to GWS at Pick 11?

Stephenson is a pick 4 onwards choice. It's possible he drops out of the top 10 with St Kilda believed to be favouring others, if he's still there. GWS could take him if still there, if interested, it's unclear whether if there he is GWS' preferred choice.

Is Rankine that good teams will tank next year?

Clubs don't tank and gain no benefit from tanking.

There are other players in the conversation of Rankine who will in their own right be very desirable next year. Lukosius and King are just two such names.


Might have to give it a crack closer to the time, if I can remember.

Rankine reminds me of gresham but 10x better. He's special but don't sleep on Walsh from country and the geelong falcons. Seen him play four times this year and still yet to see him make a bad decision. Combine that with his 16+ beep and that kid has A+ written all over him. Not as prodigiously talented as rankine but honest as the day is long.

Walsh is good. Ball use at times a ? but good ball winner, runs and will find plenty of it. Early days, he looks like a mid who will go early.

Good lord that's bad, especially from Rayner.
Lapped by John Worsfold i hear.
Do you think that'll impact their draft positions Knightmare or are clubs already aware of the extent of these deficiencies?

We all know Rayner's endurance is a weak point, so it doesn't tell us anything we didn't know.

Rayner is still a 1-6 pick, as with Dow, LDU, Brayshaw and Cerra, with the order to be decided.
 

M Malice

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When I talk weapons and hurt factor. I'm talking about guys who can take over games and you can feel their influence. Dangerfield and Dusty are two key examples in the game at the moment. High proportion contested ballers who hurt the opposition with ball in hand and have ways to tear you apart.

None of your assessment of what Brayshaw does is incorrect, only your conclusion.

He hits his targets, lowers his eyes and makes sound decisions. He's just not kicking it 60m, breaking the lines or dominating guys 1v1 in the goal square at ground level, aerially or with his strength 1v1 when isolated. He doesn't have those weapons. Those are weapons. Brayshaw doesn't have that.

Like with his brother Angus, Andrew projects to be good, but there isn't any one thing he's special at.
There have been a few players over the years in their draft year being described in a similar manner KM, a notable one being Simon Black.
 

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Cal Twomey just tweeted the 2km results for Rayner and Fogarty.

7:57 for Rayner
7:33 for Fogarty

What would be considered a decent time.
What would Riley Knight and Taylor Walker do for instance?
 
What would be considered a decent time.
What would Riley Knight and Taylor Walker do for instance?

At a guess I’d say 6.30-7.00 but you need to appreciate that 18 year olds don’t have anywhere near as much muscle mass as fully formed seasoned AFL players. They’re much lighter and SHOULD be able to run good 2km times weighing 5-10kgs less than their ultimate AFL playing weight (in 3-4 y are time).
 
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Im thinking both these boys tanked about 30-40 seconds in this Run

If a private 2klm running session was done by a melbourne club
Carlton,Stkilda,North etc for rayner and similar for Fogarty by the Crows both players would have better times


Constable just wants to get to Richmond and its looking like it might be a slight chance at #17
 

Richo83

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The thing about Martin and Dangerfield is that they're offensively minded players and aren't really known for their defensive work. Their sidekicks Cotchin and Selwood often do the tough thankless work through shepherding, tackling, extracting, leading, directing etc and through having those players, Martin and Dangerfield are able to play more attacking because they know they have backup.

This is why ideally you'd want a Rayner type who can rip open games but Brayshaw is important too to give the side balance. I'd happily draft Brayshaw early as I think he could become than gun balanced midfielder a la Selwood who also is a great captain. Sloane is another example. Selwood and Cotchin were drafted early as both the cats and the tigers envisioned them having the roles they currently have.

I think he'd add a lot to Brisbane's midfield which has lost Rockliff and often runs one way. He'd be better than any North midfielder in a few years and would complement Carlton's midfield as well, which has lost Gibbs and still needs to add bodies in the middle. And Fremantle could push Fyfe and Mundy forward, in fact a tag team of Brayshaw and Fyfe could operate like Selwood and Dangerfield.
 
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Im thinking both these boys tanked about 30-40 seconds in this Run

If a private 2klm running session was done by a melbourne club
Carlton,Stkilda,North etc for rayner and similar for Fogarty by the Crows both players would have better times


Constable just wants to get to Richmond and its looking like it might be a slight chance at #17

Hard to believe a person competitive enough to be considered a first round AFL draft pick would tank a run organised by an AFL club. Most clubs recruiters should be able to pick if a player wasn’t pushing them self to the limit.
 
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Hard to believe a person competitive enough to be considered a first round AFL draft pick would tank a run organised by an AFL club. Most clubs recruiters should be able to pick if a player wasn’t pushing them self to the limit.
The fact is that these kids know that they will be drafted and the run doesnt hinge on if they get drafted or not - Its not the be all / end all situation
8 minutes for a 2klm run is terrible and is probably just 1 minute off a 45 year old that runs just to keep fit

I remember running when i was a kid and 2 klms was not a huge run and you could do it easily, For a kid thats been in a pro system the 8 minutes is terrible and you cannot rule out the reason why they wouldnt have pushed them self's to the limit.

The difference could mean instead of say Constable running 7.05 and going to the Doggies at #16 or running 7.87 and going to Richmond at #25
Doesnt really matter that much so why bust a nut - Im sure if being drafted was on the line these kids would have knocked off 30-40 seconds off these times

Brisbane recruiting manager Stephen Conole:

"He looked a bit sluggish," Conole conceded of Rayner.

"He had an exam the day before and he has another one on Monday.

"He's come off a reasonable knee injury that's kept him out of training for a little while.

"Four of the boys ran together and none of them really put on any pace, it was a pretty mild affair.

"I think the four of them were a little bit underdone and their results showed that.
 
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The fact is that these kids know that they will be drafted and the run doesnt hinge on if they get drafted or not - Its not the be all / end all situation
8 minutes for a 2klm run is terrible and is probably just 1 minute off a 45 year old that runs just to keep fit

I remember running when i was a kid and 2 klms was not a huge run and you could do it easily, For a kid thats been in a pro system the 8 minutes is terrible and you cannot rule out the reason why they wouldnt have pushed them self's to the limit.

The difference could mean instead of say Constable running 7.05 and going to the Doggies at #16 or running 7.87 and going to Richmond at #25
Doesnt really matter that much so why bust a nut - Im sure if being drafted was on the line these kids would have knocked off 30-40 seconds off these times

Brisbane recruiting manager Stephen Conole:

"He looked a bit sluggish," Conole conceded of Rayner.

"He had an exam the day before and he has another one on Monday.

"He's come off a reasonable knee injury that's kept him out of training for a little while.

"Four of the boys ran together and none of them really put on any pace, it was a pretty mild affair.

"I think the four of them were a little bit underdone and their results showed that.

There’s inherent inconsistency in your argument.

If the run matters little, then nothing hinges on your time, so why push yourself? In fact why do it at all?

Conversely, if it mattered a lot, and a slow time sees you drop down places in the draft, potentially to a club you don’t really want to go to, then wouldn’t you bust your arse?

My take is they’re all pretty unfit primarily due to long standing injuries, and they may have gone at 90-95%, but not 30-40 secs slower, that’d be more like going at 70%z.
 
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There’s inherent inconsistency in your argument.

If the run matters little, then nothing hinges on your time, so why push yourself? In fact why do it at all?

Conversely, if it mattered a lot, and a slow time sees you drop down places in the draft, potentially to a club you don’t really want to go to, then wouldn’t you bust your arse?

My take is they’re all pretty unfit primarily due to long standing injuries, and they may have gone at 90-95%, but not 30-40 secs slower, that’d be more like going at 70%z.

Perhaps drop down in place actually suits you ? Rayner not going interstate ? Constable similar ?
 
Perhaps drop down in place actually suits you ? Rayner not going interstate ? Constable similar ?

Too risky - especially for a Constable or CCJ who are unlikely to be top 10 picks.

In the range of 10-30, there’s far greater scope for variation in clubs thinking.

I mean taking your theory literally, if you’re a 6.30 runner normally, and you THINK you’re going to get picked at 11, then do you try to punch out a 6.50 to drop to 13? Or will a slow 7.30 see you drop to pick 22? Who the hell knows where you’re starting (as a likely selection) and where you might finish (if there is any change). Frankly, it all just seems a bit silly and I just can’t see any of those guys “foxing” or “tanking” in this context.

I just reckon they all tried their best off injuries, ran a touch conservatively and this ran pretty slow times.
 
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Too risky - especially for a Constable or CCJ who are unlikely to be top 10 picks.

In the range of 10-30, there’s far greater scope for variation in clubs thinking.

I mean taking your theory literally, if you’re a 6.30 runner normally, and you THINK you’re going to get picked at 11, then do you try to punch out a 6.50 to drop to 13? Or will a slow 7.30 see you drop to pick 22? Who the hell knows where you’re starting (as a likely selection) and where you might finish (if there is any change). Frankly, it all just seems a bit silly and I just can’t see any of those guys “foxing” or “tanking” in this context.

I just reckon they all tried their best off injuries, ran a touch conservatively and this ran pretty slow times.
Mate you have gone in a totally different direction all together here.

What im basically saying is for a Rayner & Constable to not care about this Run and if they slide a few spots its not really the end of the world and wouldnt have really tried their asses off.

Regards to dropping to teams - Take it like if i get picked at #13 or #23 doesnt really matter i would rather stay in melboure and play for north than go to perth.

Simple not rocket science here
 
Mate you have gone in a totally different direction all together here.

What im basically saying is for a Rayner & Constable to not care about this Run and if they slide a few spots its not really the end of the world and wouldnt have really tried their asses off.

Regards to dropping to teams - Take it like if i get picked at #13 or #23 doesnt really matter i would rather stay in melboure and play for north than go to perth.

Simple not rocket science here
I think we are confusing each other. Time for a beer
 
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At a guess I’d say 6.30-7.00 but you need to appreciate that 18 year olds don’t have anywhere near as much muscle mass as fully formed seasoned AFL players. They’re much lighter and SHOULD be able to run good 2km times weighing 5-10kgs less than their ultimate AFL playing weight (in 3-4 y are time).
Was interesting reading that it took Dylan Roberton until his latest preseason (12 months ago, at approx 25yo) to finally beat the 3km time he did at 17/18yo in his draft year, after he'd added 10 or more kg to his frame in the meantime.
 
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A surprising overreaction from a lot of people it sounds like with the 2km time trial.

We're not drafting whoever can run 2km. We're drafting footballers who can get out on the field and play good football.

Rayner is a footballer and someone who becomes more competitive when you put a football in front of him and get the game started.

The important thing with testing is not how players test, but using the information from how they test to explain what you see from the players on game day and how the various results impact on their play.

saying Rayner's endurance is a "weakness" is being quite generous. It's a downright liability.

Yes, this result will have an impact on his draft stocks.

Clubs test during regular intervals, over several years. Rayner's endurance numbers from the past would have been well known before yesterdays 2km run.

By clubs being aware of what Rayner's endurance was like, his draft stocks have neither improved nor declined. He's still a 1-5 pick as he was before the test.

What would be considered a decent time.
What would Riley Knight and Taylor Walker do for instance?

For a rough feel. Sub 6min is elite. 6:30 or less is very good. Sub 7min is good. Sub 7:30 is below average. Sub 8min poor. 8+min struggling.

In the past it was a 3km time trial, but has this year for the first time shifted back to 2km at this years combine. With the yo-yo replacing the beep test, a further difference this year.

At a guess I’d say 6.30-7.00 but you need to appreciate that 18 year olds don’t have anywhere near as much muscle mass as fully formed seasoned AFL players. They’re much lighter and SHOULD be able to run good 2km times weighing 5-10kgs less than their ultimate AFL playing weight (in 3-4 y are time).

Development is not so linear. It's very individual.

Several players in this draft already are at what will likely be their AFL playing weights, or very close to. Others need to stack on over 15kg before they're at what will be their playing weights.

You're right that players will for the most part put on size and muscle over their first few seasons, but for others endurance and running will be more of a focus. Rayner as an obvious example while he'll still spend time in the gym working on his power and making that an even more pronounced strength, he'll also no doubt be put to work on a program over the coming seasons to build his endurance.
 

Richo83

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Endurance and stamina are two things which can easily be worked on once players get into a professional environment. A lack of endurance is probabky the thing which concerns me the least, especially as, if you're a player who is capable of getting high numbers as a junior, imagine what you'll do with some endurance training. Every player works on it. What can't be developed as much is football IQ and appetite for the contest.

Of course this has to be qualified, but for me endurance tests have to be balanced with vo2 information which tells you how much capacity for growth in endurance. But everyone can improve their enduance. And I guarantee these drafteew will do more rumning this pre-season than in any other.
 
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Whispers of Stephenson slipping to outside top 10 for real?

It's possible.

North Melbourne, Fremantle and Collingwood are the three teams inside the top 10 to have been linked in some way. St Kilda, Western Bulldogs and Carlton seem to favour other prospects, so if Stephenson doesn't go top six, he may well drop outside the top 10.
 
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