Opinion Pick 1... is Cam Rayner

[Fitzroy bears]

I don't envy our recruiting staff at all, this will be a tough call and depending how the particular player they choose, develops, plays and if he re- signs, this decision will have a significant impact on the way we (as supporters) veiw the outcome of this draft.

The number 1 pick holds greater significance, in terms of success or failure, as we have all the talent available to us and the ability to select the best one. The pressure increases again, when there is no clear outstanding prospect. This is one of the particular reasons why I would have loved to see the club trade this pick, however it was not to be.

Having noted the obvious negative aspects of having the number 1 pick, I am keen to acknowledge the exciting possibilities that present our fabulous club, in selecting first and the ultimate joy of watching the highly skilled youngster fulfill his potential in our great jumper for a long time to come.

With that said I had originally voted for rayner, but now see the benefit in picking brayshaw, as he offers our club a level of safety in his abilities and quality in skill level. There is no point in me debating the go home factor as most of the prestigious talent will come from interstate in the now and near future, so there is little point worrying about what may come in 2 years. Brayshaw fits a need, skill level and talent level

 

[Panthera]

Are you telling me a bloke we are considering at #1 ran 2kms in 7.53??

Did he stop for a dart half way through?

Similar time to a guy we're considering at 15

 

[briztoon]

He comes across as he kind of kid willing to say hes home sick when Essendon offer him massive overs in 2 years.

FTFY

 

[Panthera]

The one overriding impression I get from watching Brayshaw is his on-ball instincts, awareness and vision. He seems to know where his teammate is before he even gets the ball and then fires them the handball to their advantage on the run. He brings others into the game. That spatial awareness in traffic cannot be trained, it's innate.

In a vacuum I can definitely see why some people are in enthused by the lack of flash but he genuinely seems to be a strong system midfielder that can make those around him way more effective. I'm getting serious Luke Power vibes. He's not a sexy selection but his impact for us could be profoundly transformative in a midfield that has been dysfunctional for the better part of a decade.

If he can hit Hippy on the chest 5 times a game; is that instant sexiness?

 

[Billy Puller]

Was hearing Brayshaw LDU months ago still all I'm hearing.

Will honestly be surprised if we take Rayner but in the end we won't know till draft night. As a betting man I'd put the money on Brayshaw

 

[briztoon]

Please not Rayner don't need any more injury prone players.

Paddy Dow - Shoulder surgery
LDU - Shoulder surgery
Cerra - Shoulder surgery
Bonner - Knee reco
Darcy Fogarty - knee arthroscope

There's a lot of kids at the pointy end of the draft who have missed significant time with various injuries and surgery.

 

[Lazza16]

If he can hit Hippy on the chest 5 times a game; is that instant sexiness?

Be sexier if Bonar was hitting him. Brayshaw reminds me of Doug from the hangover......nite.

 

[Jman78]

I’ve been on the Brayshaw bandwagon for a while now. I do think he’ll ‘drag’ others along and demand certain aspects to their game (within reason of course). He seems like a considered, educated and selfless young bloke which imo makes him very desirable for us. Again just an opinion, perhaps Rayner is exactly the same... looking forward to Friday so we can put this to bed


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[SizeMatters]

So looking over the top 4 or so names that have been linked to us.

Rayner - best overall talent of the 4 no question about it. Elite. Aerobic capacity of a packet a day smoker. Flight risk?

LDU - has apparently fallen out of favour. Personality issues? Introverted, and may lack desire to get the best out of himself is the word on the street. No idea if a flight risk but if true that we are looking past him then this may be the main reason.

Dow - apparently a massive flight risk = automatic 'no' from us. Conole loves him and IIRC said he has the highest ceiling of the 4. Shame.

Brayshaw - no real weaknesses but no real standout attribute excluding professionalism which is the best in the draft. Would be an ideal bloke to have in a developing list but compared to Rayner just doesn't have the same talent IMO. Leader.

It's pretty much set in stone it will be either Rayner or Brayshaw... Go the safe option or the high risk high reward? Kinda wish LDU was still in the picture personally but the club knows what it's looking for and we will have to back them. This draft will be huge for us... I reckon if we win this draft we will be a premiership contender instead of a top 4 contender.

 

[Grizzly86]

Seemingly Brayshaw will be very similar to Berry. That being the case, sign me up!

 

[Comeback Lions]

Similar time to a guy we're considering at 15

Good reason to not consider Constable at 15. Doesn’t project as a future midfielder, so don’t get why he’s a good fit for us. But could easily be others’ opinions and way off who we are looking at.

 

[carnthemlions]

So looking over the top 4 or so names that have been linked to us.

Rayner - best overall talent of the 4 no question about it. Elite. Aerobic capacity of a packet a day smoker. Flight risk?

LDU - has apparently fallen out of favour. Personality issues? Introverted, and may lack desire to get the best out of himself is the word on the street. No idea if a flight risk but if true that we are looking past him then this may be the main reason.

Dow - apparently a massive flight risk = automatic 'no' from us. Conole loves him and IIRC said he has the highest ceiling of the 4. Shame.

Brayshaw - no real weaknesses but no real standout attribute excluding professionalism which is the best in the draft. Would be an ideal bloke to have in a developing list but compared to Rayner just doesn't have the same talent IMO. Leader.

It's pretty much set in stone it will be either Rayner or Brayshaw... Go the safe option or the high risk high reward? Kinda wish LDU was still in the picture personally but the club knows what it's looking for and we will have to back them. This draft will be huge for us... I reckon if we win this draft we will be a premiership contender instead of a top 4 contender.

I agree on LDU. Obviously the club knows more than we do, but from what I've seen he's got that ability to impact contests Brayshaw doesn't + the endurance capabilities Rayner lacks.

The thing I wonder about with Brayshaw is his ability to accumulate the ball. He seems like the kind of player who needs to get a lot of it to have an impact, but has he ever got 30+ too often in the TAC cup? He's a smart footballer who appears to be a hard worker, but I still worry it could be a pretty conservative selection.

There are some compelling reasons to draft Brayshaw, but it might also come down to him being one of the few without too many strikes against him (go home factor, commitment, endurance etc). That's not ideal when the biggest hole in our list going forward is a midfielder with decent pace who can give the opposition something to worry about at contests. Obviously it's a bit easier to pick up midfielder from other clubs than it used to be, but we need to be careful not to build from the outside in too much. Hawthorn might've been renowned for their clean ball use, but they still had a lot of players they could rely on to have an impact at stoppages.

 

[briztoon]

I wonder if Essendon fans felt like this last year.

 

[SizeMatters]

I agree on LDU. Obviously the club knows more than we do, but from what I've seen he's got that ability to impact contests Brayshaw doesn't + the endurance capabilities Rayner lacks.

The thing I wonder about with Brayshaw is his ability to accumulate the ball. He seems like the kind of player who needs to get a lot of it to have an impact, but has he ever got 30+ too often in the TAC cup? He's a smart footballer who appears to be a hard worker, but I still worry it could be a pretty conservative selection.

There are some compelling reasons to draft Brayshaw, but it might also come down to him being one of the few without too many strikes against him (go home factor, commitment, endurance etc). That's not ideal when the biggest hole in our list going forward is a midfielder with decent pace who can give the opposition something to worry about at contests. Obviously it's a bit easier to pick up midfielder from other clubs than it used to be, but we need to be careful not to build from the outside in too much. Hawthorn might've been renowned for their clean ball use, but they still had a lot of players they could rely on to have an impact at stoppages.

If we were based in Victoria I would definitely be taking LDU at pick 1 no questions asked. I reckon he will project to be a Carlton variety Judd if he learns to utilise his frame and pace... maybe not as explosive and powerful but I think he will make up for it with a bit more class than Judd had at the Blues. Judd ripped through packs, whereas ATM LDU props, turns and side/back steps just enough to give himself some extra time to give the ball to someone in an open/better position. Has cleaner hands than Brayshaw as well, better athlete, and more versatile.

Brayshaw I just hardly ever notice. Workman like and he averaged the most touches out of the 'big 4' I believe. Would bet the house on him getting every single bit of talent out of himself though and from all reports a future club captain. I reckon he would be the kind of bloke who just makes everything slightly easier for his team mates. Does a lot well but just doesn't have that point of difference that will allow him to damage opposition like a Rayner. Kinda like a poor mans Cotchin and I reckon you can pick up a bloke like this in the 5-10 picks range of every draft.

But alas we aren't Victorian based so we just have to take the best available who won't run off to mummy which really screws us over.

 

[briztoon]

If we were based in Victoria I would definitely be taking LDU at pick 1 no questions asked. I reckon he will project to be a Carlton variety Judd if he learns to utilise his frame and pace... maybe not as explosive and powerful but I think he will make up for it with a bit more class than Judd had at the Blues. Judd ripped through packs, whereas ATM LDU props, turns and side/back steps just enough to give himself some extra time to give the ball to someone in an open/better position. Has cleaner hands than Brayshaw as well, better athlete, and more versatile.

Brayshaw I just hardly ever notice. Workman like and he averaged the most touches out of the 'big 4' I believe. Would bet the house on him getting every single bit of talent out of himself though and from all reports a future club captain. I reckon he would be the kind of bloke who just makes everything slightly easier for his team mates. Does a lot well but just doesn't have that point of difference that will allow him to damage opposition like a Rayner. Kinda like a poor mans Cotchin and I reckon you can pick up a bloke like this in the 5-10 picks range of every draft.

But alas we aren't Victorian based so we just have to take the best available who won't run off to mummy which really screws us over.

I voted for LDU in the poll, but if we were a Victorian club, I'd probably draft Dow. Of the top, pure mids, (LDU, Dow, Cerra & Brayshaw) for mine, Dow projects
to have the highest ceiling and the one pure mid that could become a genuine star. I'd sooner draft LDU ahead of Brayshaw.

We really need a potential young star from this draft. If it can't be Dow, then it's gotta be Rayner.

If we draft Brayshaw, were going to have a lot of young club captains in Andrews, Berry and Brayshaw.

My real concern at the moment is Berry's foot and if he'll be ready for next season.

 

[POBT]

Brayshaw moves the ball quickly and hits targets. That’s a very solid quality.

Honestly, I think the fact that Brayshaw wasn’t in popular top 5 calculations during the year has people spooked. His season has been top 5 worthy and, with his well developed contested work and endurance, that form should translate nicely to senior footy.

 

[The Bear]

Fagan says on radio this morning it’s down to two. Must be Rayner or Brayshaw. Brayshaw please.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

I wonder if Essendon fans felt like this last year.

Actually, remembering back, I think they were very much split between a number of different options. One of the threads on Bomberblitz mirrors this one quite closely.

 

[royboys4eva]

It's hard not to be impressed by everything you read about Brayshaw. He sounds a safe bet and most importantly a player who shouldn't ask to leave after two years. Right now I think we need to take the player who will commit to the club long term, even if that player isn't in the best three players. Schache and Aish have burnt us and before that we had the go home five.

If we draft Rayner he may well turn out to be a better player but will that be with our club? Every Melbourne club will be chasing him every year - pressuring him to return and play in front of bigger crowds and make more money with off field offers.

I see Ballenden has dropped down further in Phantom drafts. If we can have three live picks before taking him that would be super and makes the Schache trade even more acceptable.

 

[Chezz]

It's hard not to be impressed by everything you read about Brayshaw. He sounds a safe bet and most importantly a player who shouldn't ask to leave after two years. Right now I think we need to take the player who will commit to the club long term, even if that player isn't in the best three players. Schache and Aish have burnt us and before that we had the go home five.

If we draft Rayner he may well turn out to be a better player but will that be with our club? Every Melbourne club will be chasing him every year - pressuring him to return and play in front of bigger crowds and make more money with off field offers.

I see Ballenden has dropped down further in Phantom drafts. If we can have three live picks before taking him that would be super and makes the Schache trade even more acceptable.

Why does everyone think Brayshaw is going to stay?

Sure he's an impressive young man, who says all the right things. But, I would think he is just as likely to leave after 2 years as any of the other top draftees. His family have very strong North Melbourne connections and his brother plays for Melbourne. You can't tell me those two clubs aren't going to be after him real hard to come home.

 

[luthor]

I get the reasons why a significant chunk of us have switched preference to Brayshaw over Rayner.

Captain material,more of a pure mid, consistency,etc

The one thing I don't undersstand is this perception that Brayshaw is unlikely to be a flight risk, whereas Rayner is frequently being referred to as just that.Despite the fact that on at least one occasion, Fagan, Noble or Conole have explicitly stated that the Club has no concerns about Rayner in this regard

Is there something that Brayshaw has said or done that makes him considered "safe" from the dreaded go home factor?

Or safer than Rayner?

Is it the "solid citizen" thing and if so why would this necessarily make him less likely to bugger off than anyone else?

schache looked like a solid citizen and as safe a bet as anyone to be a long term Lion and we know how that turned out.

EDIT:

Post crossed with the one above by Chezz

Looks like gteat minds think alike

 

[tate13]

Posts that include "I'll be disappointed if we pick.." or "Please not *insert player name*" or the words "flight risk" are my favourite.

 

[Taylor]

The girlfriend will have a lot of pull too.

 

[Dalions]

Why does everyone think Brayshaw is going to stay?

Sure he's an impressive young man, who says all the right things. But, I would think he is just as likely to leave after 2 years as any of the other top draftees. His family have very strong North Melbourne connections and his brother plays for Melbourne. You can't tell me those two clubs aren't going to be after him real hard to come home.

In a recent interview on afl.com.au he was and a few draftees were asked which team they supported and he said Melbourne.
So I am sure they will come hard at him.
All that we can do as a club is provide the best environment that these guys want to stay. And win some games of footy most importantly.
Who knows with any of them really? When the other clubs inevitably come knocking!

 

[Balony_pony16]

I do find it strange that people consider Brayshaw "not damaging". everything I have seen suggests he moves the ball forward at all costs and does it with composure and vision. has a beautiful kick on him as well