Future 2nd for a future 3rd merry-go-round

[Good Degoe]

And there have been just as many who have gone on to be delisted.

That's the spirit, root for the bust

 

[Apex36]

I agree that we got poor value for Witts, but don't see its relevance to the Murray trade.

Poor old Sydney, got nothing for Mumford and now they've got stuff all for Murray.

They got Buddy for Mumford. He was a salary cap victim and they pushed him out deliberately on the cheap. It’s not something to feel sorry for them over, not is Murray, which was a very good deal for them.

 

[Apex36]

That's the spirit, root for the bust

You’re delusional.

 

[sr36]

They got Buddy for Mumford. He was a salary cap victim and they pushed him out deliberately on the cheap. It’s not something to feel sorry for them over, not is Murray, which was a very good deal for them.

Mumford being cleared for cap space didn't mean that they had to give a gun away for nothing.

 

[Good Degoe]

You’re delicious.

Settle down Bruce

 

[CFC2010]

Mumford being cleared for cap space didn't mean that they had to give a gun away for nothing.

Do you think the price we payed for Murray was fair?

 

[Apex36]

Mumford being cleared for cap space didn't mean that they had to give a gun away for nothing.

You don’t get good currency for a player you’re actively pushing out the door.

 

[sr36]

Do you think the price we payed for Murray was fair?

Yes, but I'm a gambler at heart. The funniest thing about this silly argument that so many of us have been drawn into, is that like most, if not everyone, on this ever growing thread, I haven't seen him play. So my opinion on his value, just like most, if not all, others on this thread is pretty meaningless - ditto when appraising the Stephenson and Murphy draft selections.

Unlike most of the naysayers over the trade, I don't think there is a large value difference between a second and third rounder, so I'm happy that we have paid that price for a 20 year old whose highlights video is so exciting, particularly as he must have produced at a reasonable level to have been named in the NEAFL team of the year. I can't wait to see him in the black and white, as he has the potential to be fantastic entertainment and if he makes it will give us something that we need but don't have elsewhere on our list. Pre-trade and draft, I was hoping for a couple of tall defenders and a couple of dashers. In Stephenson and Murray, we've at least got a couple of dashers. Hopefully they make it.

 

[sr36]

You don’t get good currency for a player you’re actively pushing out the door.

You're probably right, but if they are valuable, why not?

I wish house sellers shared the same attitude, or at least publicans.

 

[Scodog10]

Come on Sco. You know that is not what i was referring to and also that the real value of the trade will be determined by where teams finish.

You can try and make it about points, which in the past you have derided people for, or we can just accept we didn't give up a 2nd rounder on its own and the back and forward on this thread wouldn't exist.

I’m not. I was simply applying a more practical version of your post. I could have just as easily posted that you paid $20 for the product and got your $30 change, but if you’d have gone the next day it would have been worth $10 or the cashier says they’d have knocked something off if you asked for a discount. Either way you paid overs!

Points become relevant once you have academy and FS prospects, which we do in this case, but you’re looking in the wrong direction because it wasn’t me that has derided people for it.

I’ve previously used it in a practical sense when weighing the Witts and Anderson deals though my opinion has shifted somewhat on those applications because it’s severely limited (as we’ve seen with people trying to twist this deal as us only giving circa pick 40). I’m also a big fan of overhauling the draft system to make it akin to an auction, but I realise that isn’t happening any time soon.

 

[doppleganger]

Don't know. In relation to how the Swans value Murray I think we are singing from the same songbook. By mid season it seems he may have been out the door but boosted his career back up when moved to the backline. Enough to see Sydney likely to retain him as a Cat B and allow him to push his case for full elevation in 2018. That's my point prior to our interest Sydney liked him but didn't see him as likely senior ready in 2018 so keeping him Cat B makes sense. If they rated him higher, thinking he was likely to force his way into the 22 in 2018, he would have been upgraded at seasons end.

Having a valuable commodity and potential AFL player as a Cat B rookie is more beneficial to a club than elevating him to the senior list. So if no other clubs showed interest, it would be in Sydney's best interest to keep him as a Cat B rookie.

I think that's what we need to keep in mind and not paint this kid as on the verge of an AFL career and a likely vital link to our backline. Give him a chance in the VFL or preseason, see if he has anything to offer and hope he gets some AFL experience in 2018. That's realistic to me. If he doesn't step up and is out the door quickly it means another speculative pick hasn't work, not unusual and we move on.

Yep a fair judgement.

We should compare him to guys like C.Brown, McClarty, Sier, Broomhead, Aish ie guys who may have 'cost' us similar amounts.

But if we have a great 2018 and the Swans collapse in a heap Freo style, then he is a free hit.

The bit about Sydney saying they were willing to offer a senior contract was simply to make us trade. It wasn't a bluff, they knew we would trade and the price then was the only detail to sort out. If Sydney don't say they are prepared to upgrade Murray then as I understand it he walks to us and they get nothing. The upgrade offer was just a mechanism to trigger the trade. There wasn't any bluffing. They all knew he was going to Collingwood

Yeah if a rookie isn't offered a contract, they can go to any club...just like a senior listed player who doesn't have their contract renewed.

They had a valuable commodity, as other clubs wanted him, who they had first crack at, so it was the Swans who had the leverage.

Getting Murray was no problem and a welcome speculative pick. It just the price we paid that seems overs.

We don't even know what the price will be, as it involves future picks.

It could be giving up pick 28 and getting back pick 44, or it could be giving up pick 20 and getting back pick 52, or it could be giving up pick 36 and getting back 40.

But in typical Collingwood bigfooty fashion, despite not knowing what the actual cost will be, plenty of posters are damn sure we paid overs.

 

[jackcass]

It's not the trade to get murray but the cost with all things considered, which have been gone through ad nauseum in many threads.

Atm it has turned into an argument for the sake of arguing from both sides as there is no changing anything, Murray is a pie and now should get the full support and for all our sakes hopefully he is a quality 22 player for 8-10 years.

I think we paid too much, just struggling to understand how people are ascribing cost and pre-determining the merit of the trade. As you say, hopefully he turns into Rampe Mk2 and quashes all the discussion.

 

[Gone Critical]

Having a valuable commodity and potential AFL player as a Cat B rookie is more beneficial to a club than elevating him to the senior list. So if no other clubs showed interest, it would be in Sydney's best interest to keep him as a Cat B rookie.

I agree there are benefits there but my real point is that the really valuable cat B players wont stay on the cat B list because they will be elevated because the club sees them as a likely senior player. So if you have a player on your cat B list who you want to keep but isnt yet AFL ready you would prefer to keep them on the cat B list. If you have a kid who is AFL ready and you tell them there is no spot on the senior list and they wont be AFL available yet even if starring may not be the best player management.

I am not saying Sydney didnt see him as having value just that the value was qualified. It would wise for us supporters to understand that and not expect this kid to be AFL ready yet. Great if he steps straight in but its more likely he is not yet at that level and if he takes time posters should not automatically see that as a fail. Some of the expectations being heaped on the kid seem unrealistic.

 

[doppleganger]

Do you think the price we payed for Murray was fair?

We don't know what we will have paid yet.

Our 2nd round could be anywhere from pick 19 through to say 36
Sydney's 3rd round could be anywhere from pick 37 through to say 54

The worst case scenario is giving up pick 19 and getting back pick 54, best case is giving up pick 36 and getting back pick 37.

The general consensus seems to be Sydney will be strong in 2018, so the pick we get back will be closer to pick 50, and we might battle to make the 8 so give up say pick 25.

The difference in draft points between pick 25 and 50 is 483 which is the value of an early 3rd round pick.

 

[Good Degoe]

We don't know what we will have paid yet.

Our 2nd round could be anywhere from pick 19 through to say 36
Sydney's 3rd round could be anywhere from pick 37 through to say 54

The worst case scenario is giving up pick 19 and getting back pick 54, best case is giving up pick 36 and getting back pick 37.

The general consensus seems to be Sydney will be strong in 2018, so the pick we get back will be closer to pick 50, and we might battle to make the 8 so give up say pick 25.

The difference in draft points between pick 25 and 50 is 483 which is the value of an early 3rd round pick.

That can't be right, Apex and others had to be stopped from jumping off a bridge, it must be worse than that

 

[THATSGOLD]

Joel Corey wasn't what we needed, and don't do the Pavlich thing, if we'd kept the pick Freo knew we needed a key position and wouldn't have picked Hasleby first (they knew Richmond was going for a runner) we probably would have still gone for Roach if we kept the pick because he was next best key after Pav but this way we got Mckee (the s**t truck ruck we needed) thrown in for nothing

You win some you lose some

It's equally valid to say picking up Jolly and Ball probably won us a flag

Yes one flag was cute but with Geelong picking Joel Corey they went on and won 3 flags with him playing great footy. If he doesn’t play for Geelong in 2011 we probably win the flag.

 

[Good Degoe]

Yes one flag was cute but with Geelong picking Joel Corey they went on and won 3 flags with him playing great footy. If he doesn’t play for Geelong in 2011 we probably win the flag.

Yes I'm sure with Joel Corey we would have won 3 flags

 

[CFC2010]

Yes, but I'm a gambler at heart. The funniest thing about this silly argument that so many of us have been drawn into, is that like most, if not everyone, on this ever growing thread, I haven't seen him play. So my opinion on his value, just like most, if not all, others on this thread is pretty meaningless - ditto when appraising the Stephenson and Murphy draft selections.

Unlike most of the naysayers over the trade, I don't think there is a large value difference between a second and third rounder, so I'm happy that we have paid that price for a 20 year old whose highlights video is so exciting, particularly as he must have produced at a reasonable level to have been named in the NEAFL team of the year. I can't wait to see him in the black and white, as he has the potential to be fantastic entertainment and if he makes it will give us something that we need but don't have elsewhere on our list. Pre-trade and draft, I was hoping for a couple of tall defenders and a couple of dashers. In Stephenson and Murray, we've at least got a couple of dashers. Hopefully they make it.

Great you and Hine are gamblers......can you please advise me what the value of a Bitcoin will be in October 2018 really interested in investing

P.S By the way I don't think any naysayer is wishing Murphy doesn't smash it next year for us.

 

[Apex36]

You're probably right, but if they are valuable, why not?

If a commodity is being cast off and it’s publicly known, why would the buyer pay a premium? Keep in mind that said commodity has nominated only one club as their new home, so there’s no competition to drive their price up either.

I wish house sellers shared the same attitude, or at least publicans.

You’re comparing something with a use-by date (player) to a commodity that’s continually increasing in value. But I’m sure you already know the reasons why the two selling parties are vastly different.

 

[TheSierBear]

i predicted that this boring debate would go on for most of preseason. Kudos to the mods for starting a separate thread and my apologies for opening the pandoras by taking sco's bait which is in the op of this thread.

 

[sr36]

Great you and Hine are gamblers......can you please advise me what the value of a Bitcoin will be in October 2018 really interested in investing

P.S By the way I don't think any naysayer is wishing Murphy doesn't smash it next year for us.

I wish I had have bought bit coin five years ago. It would have been an incredibly successful investment. All investments are gambles. All uses of draft picks are gambles. Some are riskier than others, but if the potential reward is great it can still be a great investment. Many src brokers will advise you to have a small amount invested in a couple of higher risk higher reward investments. I think we have only invested a small amount, so I'm happy.

 

[THATSGOLD]

Yes I'm sure with Joel Corey we would have won 3 flags

Probably win 2011 and 2012.

 

[sr36]

If a commodity is being cast off and it’s publicly known, why would the buyer pay a premium? Keep in mind that said commodity has nominated only one club as their new home, so there’s no competition to drive their price up either.

We got good prices for Tarrant and Heath Shaw.

 

[Apex36]

We got good prices for Tarrant and Heath Shaw.

Freo were still a basket case at the trade table at that time and Shaw was under contract which changed the dynamic significantly.

 

[good4footy]

But what happens when the next day the new shiney model of what you wanted is released ? and now you really want it but can't get it ( a player may slide into that range Hine rates higher) and not only that but you could of bought both due to the savings on the old model had you held out.

damn it dragged in again...

Surely that is not how you live your life. Saying no to things now that you want, need and value, just in case a new shinny model comes up tomorrow.

Anyway my points of we didn't pay a 2nd rounder and we can't make an informed assesment on the trade till down the track, have nothing to do with your response to my post, so i will you all to it.