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kirky said:
Looks like a 6% anti-government swing. Both sides would be happy from that outcome I would expect however the Coalition has no wriggle room for the next election.

A safe Coalition seat is now marginal (< 5% swing required).

2019 is going to be interesting.

Oh and good to see Cory's party did SFA.
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The majority of the "swing" votes against John Alexander went to the Australian Conservatives Party and over 75% of those went straight back to the Liberal Party in preferences. ACP polling currently trending at around 4.75% so hardly an anti Government swing to get excited about and as if anyone that voted Australian Conservatives is ever going to vote Labor/Greens at an election.

 
Bicks said:
The majority of the "swing" votes against John Alexander went to the Australian Conservatives Party and over 75% of those went straight back to the Liberal Party in preferences. ACP polling currently trending at around 4.75% so hardly an anti Government swing to get excited about and as if anyone that voted Australian Conservatives is ever going to vote Labor/Greens at an election.

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Bicks said:
The majority of the "swing" votes against John Alexander went to the Australian Conservatives Party and over 75% of those went straight back to the Liberal Party in preferences. ACP polling currently trending at around 4.75% so hardly an anti Government swing to get excited about and as if anyone that voted Australian Conservatives is ever going to vote Labor/Greens at an election.

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Most of that would have come from the CDP (down 3.2%) and current swing is 5.6% - all within normal parameters but at the higher end. The average swing against Governments in by-elections is 4.0% (refer below).

https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parlia...mentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1516/HoRByElections

So neither party hasn't had a win as I stated.
 

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kirky said:
Yes they did but given they had a 10% buffer, why would there be any different result?

Do you think they would be happy with an above average by-election swing?
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Yes, I think the Libs would be happy with the win, regardless of any swing.
 
Given the hell year the government has had, the high profile Labor candidate and the gutter tactics, the swing wasn’t that bad.
 
Elite Crow said:
Given the hell year the government has had, the high profile Labor candidate and the gutter tactics, the swing wasn’t that bad.
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It was virtually non existent considering 99% of the people that voted for the Australian Conservatives would have voted LNP in the past.

Very ordinary result for the ALP considering the "star" candidate and the resources the ALP put into the Bennelong bi-election....not to mention the dirty racist undertones the ALP used in an effort to get the "chinese" vote.
 
kirky said:
Most of that would have come from the CDP (down 3.2%) and current swing is 5.6% - all within normal parameters but at the higher end. The average swing against Governments in by-elections is 4.0% (refer below).

https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parlia...mentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1516/HoRByElections

So neither party hasn't had a win as I stated.
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CrowsB4hoes said:
I think they would be happy they won. Talk of swings this far out of the election is for the losers to console themselves.
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Well personally I don’t give a s**t for either side and view it for what it is with no political allegiance. Have voted different parties over my lifetime.

It was a normal byelection swing and this government has and always be on a knife edge so it does matter even though the election is only 18 months away.
 
Weren't we told that there's normally no swing at all, in by-elections like these (i.e. where the incumbent is disqualified, fixes the problem, and stands again)? I could swear that's what we were told after Joyce was re-elected in the New England by-election. 4.6% sounds about right for by-elections where there's no incumbent, but that's not the case in Bennelong.

The facts are:
  • There was a 4.94% swing towards Labor, on a 2PP basis.
  • Alexander had a 10% buffer, based on the previous election results, so 4.94% was nowhere near enough to unseat him.
  • The Liberals held the seat, and retain their 1-seat majority in the House of Representatives.
  • A 4.94% swing to Labor is consistent with nation-wide polling over the last 6-8 months, with most polls during this period showing a 2PP vote of 52-48 or 53-47 in favour of Labor. The only poll that ultimately matters though is an election.
  • If this swing is replicated at the next Federal Election, then the coalition will be annihilated.
  • By-election results are often worse for sitting governments than the subsequent Federal Elections, so we would be stupid to automatically assume that there will be a 4.94% swing in 2019 (or whenever the election is called).
Analysis - There's good and bad news for both parties.

The good news for the Coalition is that they held the seat, despite the ALP fielding a high profile candidate. In doing so, they retained their majority in the House of Representatives and weren't forced to rely upon the support of the independents. This will also bolster Turnbull's position, not that they have any viable alternative replacements, so his position really isn't under threat no matter how poorly they continue to poll.

The bad news for the Coalition is that they suffered a 4.94% swing, on a 2PP basis (according to the figures Bicks quoted above). If replicated at the next Federal Election (not due until 2019), they are facing an electoral wipeout.

The good news for the ALP is that they secured a swing of (nearly) 5%, against a local candidate who is genuinely liked within his community. They did so with a candidate who, though high profile, is not well liked within the community. The ALP's ability to generate a 5% swing will boost its confidence in the second half of this parliamentary term.

The bad news for the ALP is that they failed to win the by-election, despite pouring massive resources into the campaign, and selecting a (very) high profile candidate. In doing so, they have failed to eliminate the Coalition's numerical advantage in the House of Reps. Worse, they now face the possibility of having several of their own candidates disqualified by the High Court in 2018, at least one of whom is likely to lose his seat to the Greens.
 
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