A lot depends on Porte's form. This is his first race since his horrific crash in the TDF (excluding the Nationals, where he phoned it in). Does he have the form he had the last few years, when he dominated on Willunga Hill? To be determined.
TDU 2017 & 2018
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Sasquatch
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I know you said that the stage 4 climb is easy, but after the heat and most of these riders coming from European weather, there is a chance it could be harder. Depends how hard they ride the stage.
Sasquatch
Premiership Player
I think he does. In any case, Haas and McCarthy need more time just to be sure.
- Oct 12, 2016
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Only seen the highlights but happy to see Ewan grab Sagan's wheel, a lot can be learnt in that spot. Can see a few guys gunning for the Wilunga stage even if Richie is still a bit off. Lesser know Aussies like Canty would kill for a stage win there, can see the final lap still being ridden hard no matter what.
yaco55
Hall of Famer
And you waste a day to watch the TDU - Along with teams having to bring their TT Bikes - A TT/Prologue is not required at the TDU.
yaco55
Hall of Famer
Today reinforced by long held opinion that the best finish for Ewan is the last 500 metres with a gradient of 3 or 4% - Ewan will struggle to get up Uraidla, and remember, Impey is MS's GC rider, hence why he sprinted into 2nd place to grab six bonus seconds.
The bigger question is whether Ewan will be at OS in 2019 - The consensus within the industry is he is 100% gone, though my understanding is there is some chance he will stay at MS.
The bigger question is whether Ewan will be at OS in 2019 - The consensus within the industry is he is 100% gone, though my understanding is there is some chance he will stay at MS.
GotTheGoodes
Bloods
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I hope he stays & they build a good team around him. Exciting times ahead for him in any event.
They can't/won't, and that's why he'd be thinking about leaving...
Ewan is likely to be one of the best sprinters of his generation. He deserves to have a team with a decent lead out train, to maximise his chances of winning, particularly in the big races (e.g. TDF). He should be aiming to win the points jersey at the TDF before his career is finished.
However, MS are clearly aiming at winning the GC competition - not the points competition. More & more they're building their teams around riders like Chaves and the Yates brothers. Ewan just isn't a high priority for them when it comes to the Grand Tours.
Cadel Evans had a similar problem at Lotto (in all of its various guises). They kept trying to have eggs in two baskets - a few riders to support him, a few to support Robbie McEwen's sprinting. Evans didn't win the TDF until he went to BMC, and had a whole team dedicated to the same purpose - winning the GC.
It's probably in Ewan's best interests to move to a team where he will have the whole team working to support him. That's never going to happen at MS, at least not in the Grand Tours.
- Oct 12, 2016
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His missus dad owns Aqua Blue Sport. I can't see a full WT team devoting a full lead out to him. Gaviria is miles better and others will come along, Ewan is very over-hyped in Oz.
Sasquatch
Premiership Player
They don't bring their TT bikes.
Sasquatch
Premiership Player
No way the stage tomorrow is a sprint finish. These riders are cooked. All the Europeans coming from winter into summer. The race will break apart on the climb tomorrow.
All of the riders who want the time bonuses are Australian or South African - and well adjusted to the heat (or as well adjusted as anyone can be to 40 degrees). None of them are coming out of the European winter.
Sasquatch
Premiership Player
All the sprinters minus Sagan will be dropped.
Sasquatch
Premiership Player
I agree with this. He is very overrated by Australian's. Then you have Halvorsen coming up who will be better.
If Ewan can win in Stirling, he can get over the Norton Summit Rd climb.
Greipel will be dropped. Ewan should make it.
yaco55
Hall of Famer
Realistically, Ewan should seek another team in 2019, but I am less confident this will happen, than I was 6 months ago - Ewan's closest confidants have advised him to leave MS, while at the same time, Ewan is happy enough at MS, while of course all teams think they can support GC and sprinter ambitions - Actually, I am concerned that Ewan is riding Tirreno-Adriatico again - He's raced one day in France in his career so far - he should be racing PN and Dauphine - Impey is in good form and he will receive full team support in Stage 4.
I keep reading about all of these riders saying how hard the Norton Summit climb is. It's 5km, at 5%. It's relatively constant - no pinches of 10-15%. If it were a climb in the TDF, it would be Cat 3 at worst. I used to ride up it on a single-speed bike at the age of 8. It's not that hard...
Granted, the temperature is a significant complicating factor, but it's still not a difficult climb. The way they're carrying on about it, you'd think they were finishing on Alpe d'Huez.
Caleb Ewan won't win this stage, because MS have psyched themselves out, and he's now working as a domestique in support of Impey. There's absolutely no reason why he shouldn't/couldn't get over the climb in the lead group if they didn't sabotage his chances the way they have today.
Granted, the temperature is a significant complicating factor, but it's still not a difficult climb. The way they're carrying on about it, you'd think they were finishing on Alpe d'Huez.
Caleb Ewan won't win this stage, because MS have psyched themselves out, and he's now working as a domestique in support of Impey. There's absolutely no reason why he shouldn't/couldn't get over the climb in the lead group if they didn't sabotage his chances the way they have today.
Sagan wins, as expected (the stage had his name written all over it). Impey 2nd, Luis Leon Sanchez 3rd. McCarthy, Haas & Porte all in the lead group, but none of them picked up any bonus seconds.
In other words, the climb wasn't anywhere near tough enough for the pure climbers to get away - leaving the "fast finishers who can climb" to take the victory. Sagan will now wear the ochre jersey tomorrow.
I can't help but wonder if Ewan could have got over that hill, if MS hadn't psyched themselves out and put him on domestique duties... It's not that hard a climb. He was good enough to win at Stirling, and that means he should have been able to get over the top of Norton Summit.
In other words, the climb wasn't anywhere near tough enough for the pure climbers to get away - leaving the "fast finishers who can climb" to take the victory. Sagan will now wear the ochre jersey tomorrow.
I can't help but wonder if Ewan could have got over that hill, if MS hadn't psyched themselves out and put him on domestique duties... It's not that hard a climb. He was good enough to win at Stirling, and that means he should have been able to get over the top of Norton Summit.
Sasquatch
Premiership Player
He is racing TA because its the best race to prepare for MSR. He can win MSR eventually. He is suited to one day races and stages with small incline finishes. He is not a pure bunch sprinter and never will be so riding those French races when he can win MSR is counter productive.
People think because he has won countless flat stages at the tour down under against * all competition that he is the next McEwen and that he will win a lot of stages at the tour de france. Its false. He isnt and wont get anywhere near the likes of McEwen, Cavendish etc.
He is better focusing on the classics. He should win the green jersey at the tour de france one year but he will never be a prolific stage winner in the race.
yaco55
Hall of Famer
PN is on as the same time as TA so good preparation for MSR - Ewan needs experience riding in French races before the TDF - I posted yesterday that Ewan wouldn't get up the climb today - My guess is Trentin will be the number one rider for MSR.
He should have got up the climb, but MS psyched themselves out that he wouldn't, and put him on domestique duties instead.
Sasquatch
Premiership Player
MSR is nearly 300km. PN doesnt have any stages over 300km. TA usually have a few and one at least 230-240km long over undulating terrain. TA has always been the best lead up to MSR because it gets the riders in better condition for the race.
Ewan doesnt need experience in French races. He isnt going there to win stages. He is going to the TDF to learn. He is going to get his experience then.
MS think Ewan can win MSR one year and that is what they are primarily wanting him to focus on whilst giving him experience in the TDF
GotTheGoodes
Bloods
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Richie is a freakin beast.
such a shame he had that awful crash at le tour last year. he was a real chance with froome maybe not quite at his strongest
yaco55
Hall of Famer
PN is fine preparation for MSR - Ewan is riding the TDF because it's the shopfront race for MS to find a new sponsor - GC is taking a back seat for this year at the TDF, so Ewan is expected to win a stage - Thank God Ewan was spooked in stage 4 because it's allowed MS to win GC at the TDU.
