Vic Predict the outcome of the 2018 Victorian State Election

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The decision by the Federal Liberals to join forces with its Victorian counterparts to help Matthew Guy win the election could end in tears.


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The lessons of the past have never been learned.

Too many times has Federal influence been detrimental to the party holding power at State level or trying to get it.
 
I reckon the newspaper endorsements for the 2018 state election would be like this:

Herald Sun: Coalition
Sunday Herald Sun: Coalition
The Australian: Coalition
The Age: Labor
The Sunday Age: Labor
The Australian Finanacial Review: Labor
 
I will point out again, it's hard to pin charges on the bosses of Mafia organisations. His brother was involved in a huge ecstasy bust.

Wow didn't know that! His family and the underbelly of Melbourne must alt least know eachother, possibly even connected or have a relationship of some way. Would explain why he's even talking to them.
 

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Imagine you're the editor in chief of the Herald Sun, and you write the editorial savaging Labor's four years in office, and endorsed the Coalition to regain government.

When the results come through (thanks to the ABC's Antony Green) that Labor has returned to office (albeit by a smaller margin), you are caught in a Catch 22 situation.

What do you say in the Monday edition of the Herald Sun?

Do you (grudgingly) congratulates Labor on its election win?

Or, do you promise to go even more harder on Labor between now and the 2022 election, to make life as difficult as possible for Premier Daniel Andrews?
 
Imagine you're the editor in chief of the Herald Sun, and you write the editorial savaging Labor's four years in office, and endorsed the Coalition to regain government.

When the results come through (thanks to the ABC's Antony Green) that Labor has returned to office (albeit by a smaller margin), you are caught in a Catch 22 situation.

What do you say in the Monday edition of the Herald Sun?

Do you (grudgingly) congratulates Labor on its election win?

Or, do you promise to go even more harder on Labor between now and the 2022 election, to make life as difficult as possible for Premier Daniel Andrews?

they will print what their readers want to read.

so the latter.
 
Interesting press conference out at Geelong today involving PM Malcolm Turnbull and Victorian Deputy Premier James Merlino.

What Merlino said about Opposition Leader Matthew Guy could be used by the Liberals in their TV advertising in the run up to the November State election. You can be certain that Guy will be livid at Merlino's 'mobster with the lobster' jibe.


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Interesting press conference out at Geelong today involving PM Malcolm Turnbull and Victorian Deputy Premier James Merlino.

What Merlino said about Opposition Leader Matthew Guy could be used by the Liberals in their TV advertising in the run up to the November State election. You can be certain that Guy will be livid at Merlino's 'mobster with the lobster' jibe.


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This crime stuff must be really getting under the State Government's skin to go back to the lobster tank.
 
This crime stuff must be really getting under the State Government's skin to go back to the lobster tank.

We're going to hear a lot more about the 'mobster with the lobster' between now and election night. The question is, would it cost Matthew Guy vital seats, and possibly even the election?


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It'll be interesting to watch the Leaders Debate or the Sky News People's Forum to hear Matthew Guy explain how he would handle things like the economy, unemployment, industrial relations, and what are his and the Coalition's plans for each of those issues.


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As I said before, the decision by the Victorian Liberals to form an 'alliance' with their federal counterparts could backfire on them big time. And it could leave Matthew Guy hanging on for dear life with his leadership of the Liberals under extraordinary pressure, and the possibility of Guy facing a leadership challenge if he lost the election.


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If there's one thing I'd like to see on election night, it's the TV networks showing the exact number of seats won by the major parties, not giving contrasting figures on their 'scoreboard'.

For example:

Sky News: Labor 34; Liberal 17; National 8; Other 4
ABC News: Labor 31; Liberal 14; National 7; Other 3
Nine News: Labor 30; Liberal 13; National 6 Other 2


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I believe they don't have that problem in china (or singapore)
 
If the Victorian Liberals want to form a partnership or 'alliance' with their federal counterparts' in order to get rid of Daniel Andrews in November, here's a warning-be careful what you wish for.

Because the federal government could then return the favour by screwing (providing Matthew Guy is elected new Premier of Victoria) the Victorian government out of a deal to sort out the youth crime problem.


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The decision by the Federal Liberals to join forces with its Victorian counterparts to help Matthew Guy win the election could end in tears.


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Not sure it will.

I think that the plan is raise law and order and immigration together.

Suits the narrative that Federal Labor lets in dangerous people and State Labor doesn't do anything when they get here.

Both federal and state liberals can continually attack one area and will have an impact on outer Melbourne seats.
 
Even though this election will be fought on state issues, you can be certain that PM Malcolm Turnbull and his Opposition counterpart Bill Shorten will be treating this Victorian election as a warm up to the next federal election. That's why you'll be seeing a lot of Turnbull and Shorten on the hustings and at their party's campaign launches alongside their Victorian counterparts Opposition Leader Matthew Guy and Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews respectively.


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This crime stuff must be really getting under the State Government's skin to go back to the lobster tank.

No doubt. A lot of noise over this and nothing on the CFMEU causing bedlam on the docks. Makes you wonder who is the biggest mob organisation in this state.
 
Just as the US state of Ohio usually determine the outcome of the US Presidential election, which seat in the Legislative Assembly could be the difference in either Daniel Andrews or Matthew Guy becoming Victorian Premier?


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Just as the US state of Ohio usually determine the outcome of the US Presidential election, which seat in the Legislative Assembly could be the difference in either Daniel Andrews or Matthew Guy becoming Victorian Premier?


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Stop throwing out questions you already know the answer for!
 
I reckon Labor will win, but they'll get a massive fright from the Coalition, especially in the seats in the western suburbs.

So the result on election night would be like this:

Labor 46
Coalition 43
Other 2

It really all comes down to which party's campaign is the more disciplined (ie no gaffes, controversy ie Matthew Guy having dinner with an alleged Mafia boss or stuff ups) and are able sell their policies better.


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I reckon Labor will win, but they'll get a massive fright from the Coalition, especially in the seats in the western suburbs.

So the result on election night would be like this:

Labor 46
Coalition 43
Other 2

It really all comes down to which party's campaign is the more disciplined (ie no gaffes, controversy ie Matthew Guy having dinner with an alleged Mafia boss or stuff ups) and are able sell their policies better.


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So where are 3 new seats being created?
 

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