Adelaide: Did they blow their golden chance?

[JustaBattler]

Things went very wrong for GWS last year at the wrong time as far as injuries go. A fair run with injuries will see them dominate and everyone else playing for second - Adelaide will be in the mix for sure- but have no better chance than Sydney or Richmond if the tuggers can keep their key players healthy and their role players keep surviving the physical cost of their 'pressure' football.

Port will have a lot to say about this years finals mix and the whole competition has moved to a situation where most sides are capable of causing upsets. Clarkson and his side aren't finished - he has shown a long term ability to maximise whatever assets he doe sat his disposal through better coaching - every year sees a side improve much better than expected - maybe Melbourne are ready to step up and not just creep into finals.

 

[zucchini]

Blow it? Only times ten!

FFS they had Richmond as an opponent.

 

[Janus]

Since the advent of top four, only St Kilda in 2011 and Sydney in 2017 have made finals after being comprehensively beaten in scoring shots in the GF.

Every club who has lost a GF and come back to win the following year has either equaled the amount of scoring shots or, in the case of Hawthorn 2012 and Geelong 2008, had a significantly greater amount. So anyone referring to teams losing grand finals the year before is wrong, because those facts don’t apply to Adelaide.

In fact, only Sydney 2014/2016 has managed to keep the same list together to reach a GF after losing comprehensively.

Have Adelaide blown it? All signs point to yes.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Nope they'll have plenty more chances. Losing Lever costs them in an area they were already very strong at, whereas gaining Gibbs means you can't just tag Sloane to shut down their damage potential in the midfield. Besides, you can be a pretty poor team & still scrape into finals if you have a strong home ground advantage, just need to pick up one or two away wins.

 

[Monkey King]

A high cost is the narrative from carlton but most others dont see it that way when you look at the big picture.

BigFooty cracks me. A visit to the Gibbs trade thread on the D&T board and one will read pages and pages of the exact opposite of what’s posted here.

 

[Jars458]

Since the advent of top four, only St Kilda in 2011 and Sydney in 2017 have made finals after being comprehensively beaten in scoring shots in the GF.

Every club who has lost a GF and come back to win the following year has either equaled the amount of scoring shots or, in the case of Hawthorn 2012 and Geelong 2008, had a significantly greater amount. So anyone referring to teams losing grand finals the year before is wrong, because those facts don’t apply to Adelaide.

In fact, only Sydney 2014/2016 has managed to keep the same list together to reach a GF after losing comprehensively.

Have Adelaide blown it? All signs point to yes.

All signs or just one potenitally meaningless stat brought up by you. Worry about your own mob of pathetic under-achievers. 9th for Port this year.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

It's actually the only GF that Champion Data have said was won by the poorer side on the day (source). It felt like a comfortable Hawks victory because Fremantle botched it so badly in Q1, but the Dockers would have won if they'd kicked for goal with anything like average accuracy.

Same amount of scoring shots throughout the game.

The two times that Fremantle got within a goal we responded immediately. It was a dour game no doubt, but it was a 'job done' kind of game. Personally, whilst in the stands I felt comfortable throughout the game and didn't think we would lose. The only time I got worried was the second time they got within a goal, but Gunston responded immediately... Maybe I was confident after the Geelong prelim though... There was no way we were going to lose that day after finally getting over Geelong.

 

[HTT]

Same amount of scoring shots throughout the game.

The two times that Fremantle got within a goal we responded immediately. It was a dour game no doubt, but it was a 'job done' kind of game. Personally, whilst in the stands I felt comfortable throughout the game and didn't think we would lose. The only time I got worried was the second time they got within a goal, but Gunston responded immediately... Maybe I was confident after the Geelong prelim though... There was no way we were going to lose that day after finally getting over Geelong.

Stupid Hawthorn supporters feeling confident at a GF. I was still panicking last year when we were up by 7 goals

 

[Final Siren]

Same amount of scoring shots throughout the game.

The two times that Fremantle got within a goal we responded immediately. It was a dour game no doubt, but it was a 'job done' kind of game. Personally, whilst in the stands I felt comfortable throughout the game and didn't think we would lose. The only time I got worried was the second time they got within a goal, but Gunston responded immediately... Maybe I was confident after the Geelong prelim though... There was no way we were going to lose that day after finally getting over Geelong.

I agree it never really felt like Hawthorn were going to lose - and maybe you can even argue the Hawks could have gone to another gear if they'd had to. But I reckon a big reason why the game felt that way is Fremantle's shocking kicking made their attacks look impotent. You knew even when they went forward that they were probably going to muff it. The whole feeling of the match would have changed if they could kick straight.

The scoring shots are also a little misleading because Fremantle sprayed 4(?) fairly easy chances out of bounds as well.

 

[Final Siren]

Since the advent of top four, only St Kilda in 2011 and Sydney in 2017 have made finals after being comprehensively beaten in scoring shots in the GF.

Every club who has lost a GF and come back to win the following year has either equaled the amount of scoring shots or, in the case of Hawthorn 2012 and Geelong 2008, had a significantly greater amount. So anyone referring to teams losing grand finals the year before is wrong, because those facts don’t apply to Adelaide.

In fact, only Sydney 2014/2016 has managed to keep the same list together to reach a GF after losing comprehensively.

Have Adelaide blown it? All signs point to yes.

That's interesting. There does seem to be some correlation between how much you lose the GF by and your result the next year. When the GF is close, the loser is usually right up there the next year. When it's a blowout, they often plummet.

Year|Premier|Margin|GF Loser||GF Loser Following Year\2000|ess|60|mel|->|11th\2001|bri|26|ess|->|semi\2002|bri|9|col|->|GF\2003|bri|50|col|->|13th\2004|por|40|bri|->|11th\2005|syd|4|wce|->|premier\2006|wce|1|syd|->|EF\2007|gee|119|por|->|13th\2008|haw|26|gee|->|premier\2009|gee|12|stk|->|GF\2010|col|56|stk|->|EF\2011|gee|38|col|->|prelim\2012|syd|10|haw|->|premier\2013|haw|15|fre|->|semi\2014|haw|63|syd|->|semi\2015|haw|46|wce|->|EF\2016|bul|22|syd|->|semi\2017|ric|48|ade|->|?

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Stupid Hawthorn supporters feeling confident at a GF. I was still panicking last year when we were up by 7 goals

Haha, well funnily enough the next year I wasn't so confident at half time against Sydney, even though we were 7 goals up too.

 

[Rance2Mewtwo]

Blow it? Only times ten!

FFS they had Richmond as an opponent.

They were up against the most dominant finals performing team of this century. That includes yours.

 

[Jcpdragonx]

Our list is in great shape, especially since we haven't had the best draft access unlike the OP's club.

We don't have a dominate Hawks, Geelong or Collingwood to compete with so plenty of teams have a good shot.

Forward line is aging but mostly a bunch of downhill skiiers anyway. Gov coming through.

Defenders are all mid to low 20s, 3 already AA.

Sloane and Gibbs have another 2-3, peak years in them.

Matt and Brad are 22 and 24 + lots of teenagers coming through.

We have a replacement for Jacobs. he should have another 1-2 good years in him anyway.

 

[Jcpdragonx]

I think it will be an Adelaide vs Western Sydney Grand Final this year.

The Crows have maybe another 2 or 3 years before their Premiership window starts to shut.

The biggest issue will be who replaces Jacobs when he retires? He’s arguably Adelaide’s most important player.

Sloane is our most important player followed by Smith, we have a noticeably poorer record when these two are tagged/absent.

 

[Jcpdragonx]

Since the advent of top four, only St Kilda in 2011 and Sydney in 2017 have made finals after being comprehensively beaten in scoring shots in the GF.

Every club who has lost a GF and come back to win the following year has either equaled the amount of scoring shots or, in the case of Hawthorn 2012 and Geelong 2008, had a significantly greater amount. So anyone referring to teams losing grand finals the year before is wrong, because those facts don’t apply to Adelaide.

In fact, only Sydney 2014/2016 has managed to keep the same list together to reach a GF after losing comprehensively.

Have Adelaide blown it? All signs point to yes.

These stats are so great there is an exception 2 seasons ago. Send these stats to champion data before they get them first.

2007 board.

 

[Magus]

They'll still be near unbeatable at home so you can almost guarantee something like 7-9 wins. They'll make the top 8 and top 4 would certainly not be out of the question.

 

[Janus]

These stats are so great there is an exception 2 seasons ago. Send these stats to champion data before they get them first.

2007 board.

You’re comparing your team to Sydney, who had won a flag two years before 2014?

Okaaaaay.

 

[Golumless]

After numerous years of ups and downs since the 2012 prelim it finally seemed like the Crows year in 2017. We obviously all know that it went horribly wrong in the grand final.

Did they blow their chance to win a flag with this list?

We've seen in the past teams lose in grand finals and never get back there with that list. Fremantle and St Kilda being recent examples.

They've now got the 2nd oldest list in the AFL so they would really want to hope that they're still better than the likes of GWS, Geelong and Sydney in the next year or two.

Gibbs, Sloane, Betts, Jacobs and Jenkins are all 28 or older. Walker is almost 28. Obviously they're not all going to turn to s**t the moment they turn 30, but you'd have to imagine their best footy has already been played or they're close to beginning their declines. A player like Gibbs may last well into his 30s but in a different role.

They've also lost two young talents in Lever and Cameron which certainly will hurt them going forward. In the case of Lever the loss of Brodie Smith for the year will hurt them even more this season.

Looking at their youngsters, outside of Wayne Milera and Matt Crouch where does the improvement come from to go one better? Do we think the addition of Bryce Gibbs was enough to put them over the top this year?

Gibbs came at a high cost so Adelaide would really want to be winning a flag while he's still playing good footy. Otherwise that trade could really come back to hurt them.

I think the Crows will be right in the hunt this year, but I can't help but wonder if that was their best chance last season.

Thoughts?

Possibly, as any time you are in a grand final is going to be your best chance to win one, but hard to say until all is said and done.

We did lose a couple of role players this offseason, but really Lever and Cameron are both quite easy to replace seeing Lever played a role that is primarily just understanding structures (and Doedee has been one of the better intercept defender of the SANFL since he joined our side), and Cameron was really a 6th forward, primarily focused on defence (if you're club is struggling to replace this type of player, then you may as well just fold). Our replacements are going to be worse of course, but both are roles that the difference between competent and good are minor.

Now the loss of Smith does actually hurt, seeing he is our best outside player; of course there are silver linings seeing it gives Milera an easier path into our side, and allows us to see if Atkins can make good of his potential so far and become that number 1 outside midfielder.

Gibbs is a good acquisition seeing it does strengthen that midfield which was our big weakness, and lets be real, despite the high price the only way that trade hurts us is through salary cap; we still have two first round picks next season (3 if Sloane goes). We equally still have 2-3 peak years out of most of our older players (Jenkins and Betts less), which is how long our window is going to be anyway.

 

[Go the Guts]

Nope they'll have plenty more chances. Losing Lever costs them in an area they were already very strong at, whereas gaining Gibbs means you can't just tag Sloane to shut down their damage potential in the midfield. Besides, you can be a pretty poor team & still scrape into finals if you have a strong home ground advantage, just need to pick up one or two away wins.

Not to mention Matt Crouch had the most disposals in the history of the AFL last year (825), and he is only 22. Massively underrated, and his left foot kick is starting to become a serious weapon. He will be our best mid next year IMO ahead of Sloane and Gibbs. Our midfield will be extremely strong.

 

[db26]

For me question is if there coach can involve.To one dimensional for me no plan b or plan c or not reactive enough in games when things are not on there terms maybe because season fixtures were a breeze for them before finals.

I look at there midfield I don't see enough hard runners there who like to go the other way to and defend and get there hands dirty.The forward line for me is to tall Coach needs to balance it out with a good mixture to.Cameron and Lever both looses.

 

[Dez!]

Adding Gibbs doesn't make up for losing Lever and Cameron to other clubs and Brodie Smith to injury, I see them ending up in the bottom half of the top 8.

Crows fans are extremely delusional if they think Doedee or Fogarty and Milera are simply going to step in and recreate the impact lost.

 

[Macpotata]

head and instinct say yes. But with their list and home crowd support, not to mention perhaps a burning hunger to make amends, they can't be counted out.

Should destroy teams at home per usual, even on the road. Will rack up some big scores in 2018.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Did we lose the chance to win the grand final last year? Absolutely.

However, I think we are in a great position this year to compete for the flag this year. We added Gibbs along with Gibson to our team that's added some quality into our team. Our defence stocks are taking a hit this year with the loss of Lever, however we've bolstered our midfield with Gibbs.

Sam Jacobs - Brad Crouch - Matt Croucb
Rory Atkins - Bryce Gibbs - Rory Sloane

We need to realise what our mistakes were that day and only improve on them. But we will see how we go this year in the first half of the season.

 

[Scotland]

In a parallel universe where Adelaide won I think Richmond blew their golden chance more. No one tipped them to finish top 4 let alone go 3/3 and win the flag. Similar to the Dogs the year before, if they fall in a hole it won't matter because they won. Do a Port 07, Freo 13, WC 15 and end up in the GF when no one picked it then lose and it's different.

Anyway, Adelaide won 16 games in 2016 and 15 in 2017. Got Gilesed against us in the last round of 2016 and should've been a top 4 side then, too. Gibbs in should help. Smith out is a loss but he played about 10 minutes of the finals series and they crunched two out of three games.

No guarantees of another top 4 finish but they're still a very strong side. Their age/experience profile isn't too bad, and is pretty comparable to where Hawthorn 2011/12 or Geelong 2007 were and they won 3 flags each. Sydney made the top 4 5 years in a row 2012-2016 for 3 GF appearances and one flag.

 

[Tandy]

Port Adelaide
Adelaide