Can Richmond go back to back? # Did overconfidence cost them against Collingwood #

[kranky al]

Players get older, injured, burnt out and de-motivated by the gameplan or the pressure and expectation of staying mentally "up", or by footy in general.

Have a look at the side Collingwood fielded in the 2011 GF, and then where that list was at just two years later (when the Pies bowed out in the Elimination Final, and recognised they'd gotten all they could out of the group they had, and initiated a regeneration of the list that off-season), and you'll see how quickly the peak can pass and the window can close.

If you can be a top four side for a 4-5 year period, and get a flag out of it, I think you're doing extremely well. The expectation is always that a dynasty will follow an initial flag win, but that's never realistic, and underestimates how difficult the whole process is, and how difficult it is to stay up once you've reached the mountaintop.

We thought we had a few in the bag after. 06
Nek minnut

Spoon

 

[Tiger71]

'' Richmond were lucky they didn't have to travel ''

What a pile of dog poop that line is. The only game they might have '' travelled '' to is against us. Use your brain you morons. Did North travel in 07 against us? Did the Saints in 2008? Dogs in 2009? Hawks in 2011? In the first week I'm talking about. The games were at the MCG. What about Hawks in 2016? Or the Roos in 2014 in the semi's.


Soak those tears up boy.

Im so hot for you right now

 

[blaisee]

Players get older, injured, burnt out and de-motivated by the gameplan or the pressure and expectation of staying mentally "up", or by footy in general.

Have a look at the side Collingwood fielded in the 2011 GF, and then where that list was at just two years later (when the Pies bowed out in the Elimination Final, and recognised they'd gotten all they could out of the group they had, and initiated a regeneration of the list that off-season), and you'll see how quickly the peak can pass and the window can close.

If you can be a top four side for a 4-5 year period, and get a flag out of it, I think you're doing extremely well. The expectation is always that a dynasty will follow an initial flag win, but that's never realistic, and underestimates how difficult the whole process is, and how difficult it is to stay up once you've reached the mountaintop.

so under Malthouse they were the youngest premiers in history, and 2 years later under Buckley they were old and finished.

got it

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

For the poster that thinks the team that finishes 3rd always has to travel, here's a list of teams that finished 3rd and where they played each final:

2017: Richmond played at: MCG, MCG, MCG
2016: Hawthorn played at: MCG, MCG
2015: Hawthorn played at: Domain, MCG, MCG, MCG
2014: Geelong played at: MCG, MCG
2013: Fremantle played at: Simmonds, Patterson, MCG
2012: Sydney played: AAMI, ANZ, MCG
2011: Hawthorn played: MCG, MCG, MCG
2010: Geelong played: MCG, MCG, MCG
2009: Bulldogs played: MCG, MCG, MCG
2008: Bulldogs played: MCG, MCG, MCG

Bolded did not travel.

 

[blaisee]

For the poster that thinks the team that finishes 3rd always has to travel, here's a list of teams that finished 3rd and where they played each final:

2017: Richmond played at: MCG, MCG, MCG
2016: Hawthorn played at: MCG, MCG
2015: Hawthorn played at: Domain, MCG, MCG, MCG
2014: Geelong played at: MCG, MCG
2013: Fremantle played at: Simmonds, Patterson, MCG
2012: Sydney played: AAMI, ANZ, MCG
2011: Hawthorn played: MCG, MCG, MCG
2010: Geelong played: MCG, MCG, MCG
2009: Bulldogs played: MCG, MCG, MCG
2008: Bulldogs played: MCG, MCG, MCG

Bolded did not travel.

facts do not lie .

 

[Bazzar]

For the poster that thinks the team that finishes 3rd always has to travel, here's a list of teams that finished 3rd and where they played each final:

2017: Richmond played at: MCG, MCG, MCG
2016: Hawthorn played at: MCG, MCG
2015: Hawthorn played at: Domain, MCG, MCG, MCG
2014: Geelong played at: MCG, MCG
2013: Fremantle played at: Simmonds, Patterson, MCG
2012: Sydney played: AAMI, ANZ, MCG
2011: Hawthorn played: MCG, MCG, MCG
2010: Geelong played: MCG, MCG, MCG
2009: Bulldogs played: MCG, MCG, MCG
2008: Bulldogs played: MCG, MCG, MCG

Bolded did not travel.

Don't ruin a good conspiracy theory

 

[kranky al]

For the poster that thinks the team that finishes 3rd always has to travel, here's a list of teams that finished 3rd and where they played each final:

2017: Richmond played at: MCG, MCG, MCG
2016: Hawthorn played at: MCG, MCG
2015: Hawthorn played at: Domain, MCG, MCG, MCG
2014: Geelong played at: MCG, MCG
2013: Fremantle played at: Simmonds, Patterson, MCG
2012: Sydney played: AAMI, ANZ, MCG
2011: Hawthorn played: MCG, MCG, MCG
2010: Geelong played: MCG, MCG, MCG
2009: Bulldogs played: MCG, MCG, MCG
2008: Bulldogs played: MCG, MCG, MCG

Bolded did not travel.

Yeah - as i mentioned earlier it was a perception i had because as an interstate team third means almost guaranteed travel.

 

[Rich01]

Yeah - as i mentioned earlier it was a perception i had because as an interstate team third means almost guaranteed travel.

Yeah sometimes perceptions can be mistaken for facts.
Glad that’s been cleared up.

 

[Damon_3388]

so under Malthouse they were the youngest premiers in history, and 2 years later under Buckley they were old and finished.

got it

Have a look at the 2011 GF side, and the injuries and retirements that came over the next couple of years. Hell, our best 22 as of Round 1, 2010 was vastly different to the side we fielded on GF day that year.

Things can and do change very quickly. Dynasties are the exception, not the norm.

 

[exceptional design]

I guess as an interstater you get a different perspective.

3rd is almost guaranteed travel first week.

Unless 2nd & 3rd are both from the same state.
E.g Dockers - Eagles.
Geel - Rich.

 

[kranky al]

Unless 2nd & 3rd are both from the same state.
E.g Dockers - Eagles.
Geel - Rich.

We havnt had a derby final yet.

Has any team as a matter of interest?

Has there been a adel pt or gws syd?

 

[muzhogg]

How come youse keep reminding us ?

Because we finished first last year.

Happy, happy, joy, joy!

 

[TJASTA]

but but ninthmond did not played any away finals games

 

[calman]

very very hard to do so
the only teams in recent history to do are hawks and brisbane
You are no where near as good as they were
so no

 

[Breustiful]

For the poster that thinks the team that finishes 3rd always has to travel, here's a list of teams that finished 3rd and where they played each final:


2015: Hawthorn played at: Domain, MCG, MCG, MCG.

Wrong on just this one.
Domain against the Eagles. MCG against the Crows. Domain against the Dockers. Then the Granny.

 

[mellowyellow]

Given how woeful the competition is, anything less is abject failure

 

[Grin]

Martin is the ultimate key to any Tigers defence of their Flag!

Nah. Running and chasing is.
At Richmond, it's all about the team.
At Geelong, it's all about the individual. They believe that buying a high priced recruit or 3 wins you the premiership.
You put 3 players on Martin and others will shine. Shut down Dangerfield and Geelong's entire game plan falls to pieces.

 

[Macpotata]

We havnt had a derby final yet.

Has any team as a matter of interest?

Has there been a adel pt or gws syd?

Yes. 2005 Crows vs Port


2016 swans vs gws - that game wasn't at the scg, was at the other stadium can't remember the name. Swans have played finals there before vs lions 2004, roos 2008, blues 2010 and Pies 2012 just to name a few. They play pies there over the years.

 

[Macpotata]

ANZ stadium

 

[Macpotata]

Wrong on just this one.
Domain against the Eagles. MCG against the Crows. Domain against the Dockers. Then the Granny.

And what a *en team that Hawthorn side was. Belted the living s**t out of Sydney at ANZ in a statement game when're Swans were flying. Destroyed Fremantle by what, 90 odd points as well. Then after losing to WCE smash Adelaide, Freo then WCE when it mattered.

I witnessed all of those Hawks finals games live.

Greatness.

 

[Final Siren]

Ok show me all the years where a team that finished third didnt play an away game.

Most teams are guaranteed an away game week 1

This was an interesting probability exercise.

Assuming random finishing positions...

A Victorian team that finishes 3rd has a 53% chance of a home-state final (9/17).

A non-Victorian team that finishes 3rd has a 6% chance of a home-state final (1/17).

There's a 32% chance that whoever finishes 3rd this year will play in a home-state final (((10*9/17)+(8*1/17))/18).

So it's true that 3rd is likely to play away, if we don't know who that team is and assuming random finishing positions, but if it's a Vic team, more likely than not they'll play in their home state.

 

[kranky al]

This was an interesting probability exercise.

Assuming random finishing positions...

A Victorian team that finishes 3rd has a 53% chance of a home-state final (9/17).

A non-Victorian team that finishes 3rd has a 6% chance of a home-state final (1/17).

There's a 32% chance that whoever finishes 3rd this year will play in a home-state final (((10*9/17)+(8*1/17))/18).

So it's true that 3rd is likely to play away, if we don't know who that team is and assuming random finishing positions, but if it's a Vic team, more likely than not they'll play in their home state.

Interesting

Gives the lower performing vic team a bit of a leg up with 3rd and 4th less likely to travel - and the 1st and 2nd vic team a corresponding disadvantage as they arent benefitted by hosting a travelling side assuming 3,4 are victorian.

 

[Final Siren]

Interesting

Gives the lower performing vic team a bit of a leg up with 3rd and 4th less likely to travel - and the 1st and 2nd vic team a corresponding disadvantage as they arent benefitted by hosting a travelling side assuming 3,4 are victorian.

That's true in a relative sense, but a very non-Victorian way of looking at it, where you're assuming that "normal" means home state advantage in home finals, even though that isn't the case for most teams today, and historically has been uncommon.

Objectively, you don't get a "leg up" in a home state final - it's a neutral ground.

 

[Sully90]

They look like they're just carrying on from last year at the moment so I'd say so. At this stage their contenders would be Sydney, Adelaide (can they pull it together on GF day this year) and Geelong (good enough outside of the big 3?). PA and Melbourne are the main contenders to shoot up the ladder and maybe make the top 4 but I reckon that Richmond would have them both covered.

 

[kranky al]

That's true in a relative sense, but a very non-Victorian way of looking at it, where you're assuming that "normal" means home state advantage in home finals, even though that isn't the case for most teams today, and historically has been uncommon.

Objectively, you don't get a "leg up" in a home state final - it's a neutral ground.

From a purely win oriented pov id rather host a vic team in wa than the dockers

Id imagine you guys would feel the same