AFL 2018 - AFL Round 5

[balmainforever]

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Sydney |$1.40|$1.43|$1.45|$1.42|$1.42|$1.42
\Adelaide |$3.00|$2.85|$2.75|$2.85|$2.90|$2.90
\|line:16.5|line:15.5|line:14.5|line:15.5|line:15.5|line:16.5
\total score:|***.5|171.5|174.5|176.5|173.5|174.5

Game|TAB|Spor30bet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\St.Kilda |$3.55|$3.80|$3.85|$4.00|$4.00|$4.00
\G-W Sydney |$1.30|$1.27|$1.26|$1.25|$1.25|$1.25
\|line:23.5|line:24.5|line:24.5|line:26.5|line:24.5|line:24.5
\total score:|***.5|180.5|181.5|***.5|180.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Carlton |$4.00|$4.20|$4.05|$3.85|$4.60|$4.10
\West Coast |$1.25|$1.23|$1.24|$1.26|$1.20|$1.24
\|line:26.5|line:27.5|line:26.5|line:25.5|line:27.5|line:26.5
\total score:|***.5|178.5|178.5|***.5|178.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Port Adelaide |$1.55|$1.55|$1.53|$1.53|$1.54|$1.55
\Geelong |$2.45|$2.46|$2.50|$2.50|$2.50|$2.45
\|line:11.5|line:10.5|line:10.5|line:11.5|line:9.5|line:10.5
\total score:|***.5|178.5|176.5|***.5|177.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Fremantle |$1.60|$1.60|$1.60|$1.62|$1.62|$1.63
\West.Bulldogs |$2.35|$2.35|$2.30|$2.30|$2.30|$2.25
\|line:9.5|line:8.5|line:8.5|line:8.5|line:7.5|line:8.5
\total score:|***.5|167.5|168.5|***.5|169.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\North Melb. |$2.75|$2.80|$2.75|$2.85|$2.90|$2.80
\Hawthorn |$1.45|$1.44|$1.45|$1.43|$1.42|$1.43
\|line:14.5|line:15.5|line:14.5|line:17.5|line:15.5|line:15.5
\total score:|***.5|190.5|188.5|***.5|192.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Brisbane |$1.75|$1.78|$1.70|$1.77|$1.78|$1.77
\Gold Coast |$2.10|$2.05|$2.15|$2.05|$2.05|$2.05
\|line:4.5|line:3.5|line:5.5|line:3.5|line:3.5|line:14.5
\total score:|***.5|180.5|183.5|***.5|182.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Melbourne |$2.60|$2.65|$2.70|$2.60|$2.70|$2.75
\Richmond |$1.50|$1.49|$1.47|$1.50|$1.47|$1.45
\|line:12.5|line:13.5|line:13.5|line:13.5|line:13.5|line:16.5
\total score:|***.5|176.5|176.5|***.5|176.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Collingwood |$1.85|$1.81|$1.81|$1.85|$1.82|$1.85
\Essendon |$1.95|$2.00|$2.00|$1.95|$2.00|$1.95
\|line:2.5|line:2.5|line:2.5|line:1.5|line:2.5|line:15
\total score:|***.5|180.5|180.5|171.5|180.5|***.5

ODDS AT 12.00 ON 16/4/18

 

[the_big_sav]

gws line
wc line
hawks line

easy $$$

 

[sampeck4]

gws line
wc line
hawks line

easy $$$

nothings easy this year :/

 

[chrisdon16]

easy $$$

Literally no game is easy money these days...

 

[kaiserchief13]

Suns to win you'd think. Surprised they are underdogs

 

[langdon19]

Carlton $4.50 vs WC on the MCG, yes please.

 

[balmainforever]

i think that Gold Coast and Essendon will start favorites in their matches.

 

[Spacedog]

i think that Gold Coast and Essendon will start favorites in their matches.

I can see collingwood being favourites if Adams comes back into the side

 

[SM]

Annoyingly can't see any mispriced totals this week. GC-Lions might be good for overs, most GC games (apart from Round 1 obviously) have been pretty open games.

Surprised Port are starting as such clear favourites after their past two, but that stat about teams rarely having three bad games in a row is interesting in this case, and whether Port will bounce back hard at home.

The other that interests me is Dogs-Freo, think Dogs are being over-priced here due to their first two games, but have looked a lot better.

 

[mookieb]

Some fascinating match ups this round:

I'm on Syd to beat Ade. No Crouch bros, probably no Betts, Sloane carrying an injury. I also don't like teams having a shocker then travelling the next week.

After two shockers i'm confident that Port will bounce back strongly. I don't rate Geel team with the current injuries and think they get found out on the road.

Given the Gabba doesn't provide much HGA for Bris I think GC is the better team and wins this narrowly.

Two frantic efforts from WB, but don't think they can maintain that sort of intensity away so i'm backing Freo.

With the Hawks playing so well I can't see them being troubled by NM.

Don't think i'll touch Melb vs Rich.

Coll vs Ess looks line ball but with Wells, Elliot, Moore and Adams missing then on paper Ess has the better team.

I can't back WC at the MCG and you would expect a furious response from Carl. However, last year they could defend and not kick goals and this year they might kick a few more goals but they are getting slaughtered defensively. Murphy's out, Marchabank out, Kreuzer faces Nic Nat and Cripps might cop a tag.

Disappointed that StK didn't respond furiously but they simply have no key forwards and no system going forward. I'd like to back them at Etihad, but won't touch them like Carl until they show some sort of viable game plan.

 

[langdon19]

2/3 last week
Port vs cats 2 units under 180.5
Freo vs dogs U169.5 1 unit
Bris vs GC O177.5 2 units
Coll vs Ess U182.5 1 unit

 

[chrisdon16]

Fremantle -8.5 (Pointsbet)

 

[iluvparis]

I can't back WC at the MCG and you would expect a furious response from Carl. However, last year they could defend and not kick goals and this year they might kick a few more goals but they are getting slaughtered defensively. Murphy's out, Marchabank out, Kreuzer faces Nic Nat and Cripps might cop a tag.

Surely you would have expected a 'furious' response from us last week having been beaten by GC at home and then getting flogged by our biggest rival. Why is the switch suddenly going to go 'on' this week. Maybe its a no one plays 4 bad games in a row rule for Carlton?

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Heads up on the Rising Star market. As always, Sportsbet are very slow at recognising the nomination and Jaidyn Stepenson (Coll.) is still at $13 and without the Round 4 nod next to his name. Get on! You can cash out on this market, so even without him winning, as soon as he comes in, you can just cash out for a profit if you don't want to stick it out till the end

 

[PHX]

Richmond vs Melbourne is a stay away unless you want to take Melbourne straight-up as outsiders on a dry night or if it's rainy, lean towards the Richmond line.

We had to come from a long way back to beat them last year and I think they'd beaten us 3 straight times before that and seem to match up well. It started to rain and the Dees were down to 2 on the bench, which was perfect for us to run them down.

 

[BotsMaster]

Surely you would have expected a 'furious' response from us last week having been beaten by GC at home and then getting flogged by our biggest rival. Why is the switch suddenly going to go 'on' this week. Maybe its a no one plays 4 bad games in a row rule for Carlton?

I'm thinking this week might be an exception to the rule with Carlton's injuries. Last time the two sides played at the G, Eagles only won by a narrow margin.

 

[PHX]

Heads up on the Rising Star market. As always, Sportsbet are very slow at recognising the nomination and Jaidyn Stepenson (Coll.) is still at $13 and without the Round 4 nod next to his name. Get on! You can cash out on this market, so even without him winning, as soon as he comes in, you can just cash out for a profit if you don't want to stick it out till the end

Is $13s really overs though? Bet 365 is $15s, WH is $13s, Ladbrokes is $11s, Crownbet is $13s.

Looks like his price has already been adjusted nomination tag or not.

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Is $13s really overs though? Bet 365 is $15s, WH is $13s, Ladbrokes is $11s, Crownbet is $13s.

Looks like his price has already been adjusted nomination tag or not.

I think it's overs. He was $14 right after the game. He came in to $13 soon after, before the nomination. He hasn't moved since, and still no nomination given at Sportsbet. I'll keep an eye on it as the day progresses.

 

[PHX]

I think it's overs. He was $14 right after the game. He came in to $13 soon after, before the nomination. He hasn't moved since, and still no nomination given at Sportsbet. I'll keep an eye on it as the day progresses.

Fair enough.

What sort of margin do you expect to gain if Sportsbet does move it from say $13s to $11s?

 

[sampeck4]

Carlton $4.50 vs WC on the MCG, yes please.

kennedy alone will destroy carlton and with all of carltons outs you may aswell just burn your money now

 

[Sprams]

Interesting round. I've taken SYD-GWS-PT-HAW all straight as a multi paying $3.97.

Like others I like GC and ESS and have taken them both too. Think that people are over reacting a bit to Collingwood.

 

[mookieb]

Surely you would have expected a 'furious' response from us last week having been beaten by GC at home and then getting flogged by our biggest rival. Why is the switch suddenly going to go 'on' this week. Maybe its a no one plays 4 bad games in a row rule for Carlton?

As you are no doubt aware Carl is no stranger to losing or playing badly. I like to look for ideally look for consecutive atrocious performances that bring significant internal and external pressure to bear. Then ideally the team bottoms out and the pressure to perform sparks a turnaround. Carl losing to Coll by 4 goals is pretty much what I expected in round 3. Round 1 the result was pretty much right on the line. Bolton has been pretty chirpy in press conferences talking about the process. But now they have been humiliated and the blow torch is on.

Of course the high probability that a team plays with high intensity doesn't mean they will win. In comparison to last year they have lost Gibbs, Docherty, Murphy from their top 5 players plus Marchbank. Kreuzer likely will lose the ruck battle and Cripps might cop a tag. That leaves you with precisely zero match winners. The game plan also is leaking goals. I think they will show a response but too many variables for me to bet on Carl (I made that mistake last week with StK).

 

[HurlsMeister18]

I can't back WC at the MCG and you would expect a furious response from Carl. However, last year they could defend and not kick goals and this year they might kick a few more goals but they are getting slaughtered defensively. Murphy's out, Marchabank out, Kreuzer faces Nic Nat and Cripps might cop a tag.

Carlton are averaging about a goal less this year. They can't score, they can't defend.

 

[iluvparis]

As you are no doubt aware Carl is no stranger to losing or playing badly. I like to look for ideally look for consecutive atrocious performances that bring significant internal and external pressure to bear. Then ideally the team bottoms out and the pressure to perform sparks a turnaround. Carl losing to Coll by 4 goals is pretty much what I expected in round 3. Round 1 the result was pretty much right on the line. Bolton has been pretty chirpy in press conferences talking about the process. But now they have been humiliated and the blow torch is on.

Err you realise we were up 3 goals to the good in the Colllingwood game before conceding nine straight in a period we didn't score a goal for over a quarter and a half. We kicked some late goals in junk time to reduce the margin to 4 goals but make no mistake everyone was saying we had been humiliated and flogged on Friday night footy again!

We copped a similar pasting for losing to the Gold Coast AT HOME having allegedly been up and about after our Rd 1 loss.

There is zero reason this latest loss is more humiliating than the two that came before it, humiliating defeats we subsequently failed to respond too

 

[Trucker Tiger]

kennedy alone will destroy carlton and with all of carltons outs you may aswell just burn your money now

Surprised an outlet hasn't posted a Kennedy v Carlton market.