Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[Kangas_11]

As for how we can even things up, as I agree it's easy for teams to stay up and hard for losing teams to build up. I feel short term expanded salary cap for losing teams to open up signing possibilities of established players through trade/free agency is more the right direction to go and what will further increase the evenness and competitiveness of all teams league-wide. That's more a direction rather than stockpiling more picks that will see greater competitiveness and evenness amongst all teams.

Rather than an expanded salary cap, wouldn't it be easier just to the drop the salary floor to around 75% instead of 95%? At least then losing teams can offer substantially bigger money to the best FA's, not just 100-150k more p.a.

 

[Knightmare]

Rather than an expanded salary cap, wouldn't it be easier just to the drop the salary floor to around 75% instead of 95%? At least then losing teams can offer substantially bigger money to the best FA's, not just 100-150k more p.a.

A good idea, and a second idea I'd implement to go with my initial idea of a (short term) expanded salary cap for those losing sides - where it's more elective to use but available if they want to.

 

[The German Hunter]

Vic Country squad finalised: http://taccup.com.au/vic-country-squad-finalised-2018/

Can Tyrone Hayes have been selected or was he not eligible as a 19 year old?

 

[Knightmare]

Can Tyrone Hayes have been selected or was he not eligible as a 19 year old?

19 year olds can be selected.

Laitham Vandermeer is one who is 19 as we speak on that list.

What Hayes is doing other than playing TAC Cup is playing in the Young Gun games - today was the second of the series of games played during the TAC Cup byes - he played in game 2 today. So Hayes is one who will still be watched and get plenty of exposure and chance to stand out.

 

[jackess]

Hi Knightmare slightly off topic what do you think about the current draft system.. Personally I think getting one draft pick for a bottom side is insufficient when you consider a list of 40 odd players. Do you think the system needs changing especially with free agency, as players will only Target top 8 teams without having to give up draft picks. My suggestion would be bottom eight teams each receive two selections before top eight teams.. for example if you finish eighteenth you'll have pick one and nine. Seventeenth would receive pick two and ten etc etc. This would help rebuilding clubs having to wait 7/ 8 years struggling on the bottom being uncompetative. Thoughts...

I've floated the idea of the draft order being based on a ladder using matches from the past 3 years to better represent where a team is at. Also using the points based system to allow for teams to have multiple picks before another top team.

 

[bird_man]

Doesn’t anyone have the dates and fixtures for the champs? Can’t find them anywhere.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Doesn’t anyone have the dates and fixtures for the champs? Can’t find them anywhere.

Right here.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/game-development/nab-afl-rising-star-program/u18s.

 

[bird_man]

Right here.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/game-development/nab-afl-rising-star-program/u18s.

All I can see there are the results from last year.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

All I can see there are the results from last year.

The fixture and dates are at the top.

 

[freofc1994]

Building through the draft doesn't work either... unless you have a veteran core of leaders who can help fast-track their development. Under those circumstances, you can develop the heck out of youth - though even then it's often coming later in the draft or as rookies on these types of well performed sides and they'll still pluck better players through the draft than those teams with those extremely high picks.

Another further factor is if you're a bad team, you're not attracting talent. Good players through trade and free agency want to join competitive teams. If they're going to walk to those better sides, you're getting even worse - losing best 22 players and losing guys with experience.

If you lose year in, year out, as happens when you're too young. It creates a culture of losing. Young players don't develop as fast as they should be. And you're going in circles of continually rebuilding without getting anywhere.

Given my position, I don't feel anything needs doing with our draft system. Clubs just need to become smarter and learn that they're not making meaningful inroads with just early draft picks.

Not sure that the above can be accurate yet you believe that nothing needs done with the system mate. With all due respect any temporary lift in the cap would need to be in excess of 5 years. To get in some A grade FA you need to be offering big $ over 4/5 years. Doing that means you could have half the league with an extended cap, makes a mockery out of that system like Sydney have already been able to use with the COLA.

So if the system remains as is then essentially some teams will never really improve, or be in with a realistic shot of winning a flag.

I would like to see a club and player option added to contracts of draftees. All initial deals should be 3 years, club has an option to exercise 1 year at the end of the 3 and the player gets a 1 year option at the end of the 4th.

I think if young guys knew that they were going to have to go somewhere for 4 or 5 years then they would probably be more open with recruiters. You used to see this in the NFL where draftees essentially refused to go to certain clubs, the clubs would select them anyway to try and prove a point to their fans. Now the clubs don't even select them because it isn't worth trying to flex your muscle if the individual isn't interested in playing for you or being part of the journey.

 

[McCraeBF]

Hi Champ.

Your thoughts
Adelaide have 2 first round picks this year,one they got from Melbourne and there existing one.

At this stage they would have picks 15-16 but all the class SA players are in the top 10..
Rankine
Rozzee
Hatley
Lukosius

The bulldogs look set for a lean year and will start playing the kids after the bye,so we can assume our pick will be between 4-6.
I believe this is a Perfect storm for us to trade pick say 5 for picks 15-16

Cost=Rankine
Gain=Caldwell and Duursma

Add this to West who will only cost us pick 42 as we have no other 2nd round pick.

Win Win

 

[bird_man]

The fixture and dates are at the top.

Not on that link they aren’t

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Not on that link they aren’t

 

[briztoon]

Hi Champ.

Your thoughts
Adelaide have 2 first round picks this year,one they got from Melbourne and there existing one.

At this stage they would have picks 15-16 but all the class SA players are in the top 10..
Rankine
Rozzee
Hatley
Lukosius

The bulldogs look set for a lean year and will start playing the kids after the bye,so we can assume our pick will be between 4-6.
I believe this is a Perfect storm for us to trade pick say 5 for picks 15-16

Cost=Rankine
Gain=Caldwell and Duursma

Add this to West who will only cost us pick 42 as we have no other 2nd round pick.

Win Win

Doesn't work this way anymore.

First, West could be bid on in the first round, or early second round. Where ever West is bid on, that pick has a points value that you have to match. If you do not have enough points in this years draft, then the remainder of points still owed come off next years draft picks. So if West is bid on in the first round, but after picks 15 & 16, so say pick 17, then what ever points you are short come off your 2019 first round pick, and devalue that pick. So you might have started with pick 11 in 2019, but it gets pushed back to pick 17 after you finish paying off the points you still owe from 2018.

 

[bird_man]

View attachment 503821

Must just not come up on my phone for some reason. All I’m getting is articles and last year’s results. I’ll have a go on the computer later.

Thanks!

 

[Yamumluvsbigcox]

Hi Knightmare, if Jack Lukosius is really as good as you say he is, what do you think about the following

1. Alex Fasolo leaves for Fremantle via FA on 500k a year (end of 2nd round compo, pick 37), freo to return the saviour (+400k in cap)
2. Darcy Moore leaves for Sydney. Darcy Moore + Pick 44 for Pick 14 + Pick 32 (+350k in cap)
3. Pick 9 (Collingwood 1st round pick) + Pick 14 (Sydney 1st round pick) + Pick 37 for Pick 1 (Carlton 1st round pick) + Pick 39 (Carlton 3rd round pick)
4. Pick 32 (Sydney 2nd round pick) + Pick 39 (Carlton 3rd round pick) for Pick 22 (Essendon 2nd round pick)
5. Tom Lynch to Pies via FA on $1.2 mil a year (750k saved from Moore/Fasolo)
6. Pearce Hanley for Pick 22 (Alleviates alot of Gold Coast cap, as well as giving them early 2nd round pick, Gold coast wins twice here)
7. Pick 5 given to Gold coast as compensation for Lynch.

Essentially,

Gold Coast:

Out: Tom Lynch, Pearce Hanley
In: Pick 5, Pick 22, $1.5 million of spare cap from Lynch and Hanley

Collingwood:
Out: Darcy Moore, Alex Fasolo, Pick 9, Pick 44
In: Tom Lynch, Jack Lukosius, Pearce Hanley (Who offers some class/speed that we could use)

Team:
FB: Matthew Scharenberg ~ Lynden Dunn ~ Jeremy Howe
HB: Sam Murray ~ Ben Reid ~ Jack Crisp
C: Daniel Wells ~ Scott Pendlebury ~ Steele Sidebottom
HF: Jaidyn Stephenson ~ Tom Lynch ~ Will Hoskin-Elliot
FF: Jordan De Goey ~ Jack Lukosius ~ Jamie Elliot
R: Brodie Grundy ~ Adam Treloar ~ Taylor Adams
Int: Tom Phillips ~ Josh Thomas ~ Pearce Hanley ~ James Aish

Emergency: Tom Langdon, Mason Cox, Brayden Maynard

That's a premiership winning team.

Thoughts?

Oh boy wowee ! Collingwood need you as their list manager . You should email this to the club

 

[adammania9]

Howdy KM
The Pies currently sit with Pick 12 in the draft - who at that pick would you realistically target as a player who suits out list needs. The following four are my favourites however I think all are gone by pick 12 as the draft currently stands. I'm keen to hear from a fellow Magpie fan who knows his stuff on who he would select at the moment.
1. Ian Hill - we've got the hard-running accumulator in Phillips, now we need the quick, classy and skilled Hill to occupy the other wing and we are set.
2. Max King - probably a top five player on talent and obviously the Pies have massive key forward deficiencies that King could fix.
3. Ben King - great potential at either end, more likely down back. Could be a long-term replacement for Dunn and complete our back line for the next few years.
4. Connor Rozee - I think our future is without Jamie Elliott so it would be great to load up with another target forward who can crumb and provide us with that pressure inside forward 50.

Is Jack Bytel one we could look to as an in and under midfielder to compete with Adams and Brown? Do you rate Tom McKenzie?

 

[HedgeFund]

Howdy KM
The Pies currently sit with Pick 12 in the draft - who at that pick would you realistically target as a player who suits out list needs. The following four are my favourites however I think all are gone by pick 12 as the draft currently stands. I'm keen to hear from a fellow Magpie fan who knows his stuff on who he would select at the moment.
1. Ian Hill - we've got the hard-running accumulator in Phillips, now we need the quick, classy and skilled Hill to occupy the other wing and we are set.
2. Max King - probably a top five player on talent and obviously the Pies have massive key forward deficiencies that King could fix.
3. Ben King - great potential at either end, more likely down back. Could be a long-term replacement for Dunn and complete our back line for the next few years.
4. Connor Rozee - I think our future is without Jamie Elliott so it would be great to load up with another target forward who can crumb and provide us with that pressure inside forward 50.

Is Jack Bytel one we could look to as an in and under midfielder to compete with Adams and Brown? Do you rate Tom McKenzie?

IMO, based on where it currently stands, all of those four should be gone by pick 8, so Collingwood need to trade up to get inside the top 8 to get one of your favourites.

Or lose some games and end up missing finals again.

Of course it will all change but I doubt any of those four will slip so far to be outside the top 10. Still, Fogarty did last year (and he also told clubs he wasn’t interested in leaving SA which helped!)

 

[Richie Tambling]

19 year olds can be selected.

Laitham Vandermeer is one who is 19 as we speak on that list.

What Hayes is doing other than playing TAC Cup is playing in the Young Gun games - today was the second of the series of games played during the TAC Cup byes - he played in game 2 today. So Hayes is one who will still be watched and get plenty of exposure and chance to stand out.

What are your thoughts on Vandermeer?
Has genuine pace and uses the footy pretty well.

 

[Bearded Clam]

IMO, based on where it currently stands, all of those four should be gone by pick 8, so Collingwood need to trade up to get inside the top 8 to get one of your favourites.

Or lose some games and end up missing finals again.

Of course it will all change but I doubt any of those four will slip so far to be outside the top 10. Still, Fogarty did last year (and he also told clubs he wasn’t interested in leaving SA which helped!)

Really?... have you got a credible source you can supply that backs up this statement?... not saying it’s not true, and there may have been unsubstantiated rumours floating around, but I’ve never seen one credible source actually state it..

 

[Bearded Clam]

Yep - a couple of recruiters from Victorian clubs said he made it clear his preference was to remain in SA. Hence they passed on him.

It’s common knowledge within the industry.

Well that’s really good news if you’re a crows/port fan then isn’t it... if it worked for Fogarty who was touted as pick 1 for awhile there, and it’s well known it did in the industry, then it’s probably gonna work for Lukosius, Hately, Rankine and Rozee if any of these lads want to remain in adelaide around their mates and close to family too.. just tell every non SA club that they want to stay in Adelaide!.

Call me a cynic... but it seems a bit too easy if you ask me..

Edit: no longer a cynic..

 

[dlanod]

It's ok - he can come out later and confirm it and be called "brave" for subverting the draft.

 

[TooBlue14]

Hey knightmare

Who would you recommend in the small forward part time mid category from this year in the second round. Carlton have two picks and I’m guessing the first will be Walsh or lukosius. Is there any smalls like Rioli and Ryan floating around - mature bodies to help our youth develop quicker. Even someone like a Tim Kelly.

 

[HedgeFund]

It's ok - he can come out later and confirm it and be called "brave" for subverting the draft.

Personally, I think clubs are more rational about this than fans. If you break it down to pure employment, the AFL draft determines where you get your first job, for two years (or one for rookies).

A potential employer isn’t going to be keen to hire you if they know you will want to play elsewhere the first chance you get. So they’d prefer you be up front and honest about that, because you won’t be a 100% happy employee anyhow for the two years you’re stuck in a club/city/state that you don’t want to play with.

This really only applies to the cream of each crop who were always going to find a home, as those taken later will just be happy they’ve got a club to play for, but hopefully you get the gist of my argument.

Be open and honest early and no one gets hurt.

 

[dlanod]

This really only applies to the cream of each crop who were always going to find a home, as those taken later will just be happy they’ve got a club to play for, but hopefully you get the gist of my argument.

Be open and honest early and no one gets hurt.

This is actually why it shits me. It basically lets the cream of the crop decline to play for particular clubs, and I'm going to assume we all realise that means decline to play for interstate clubs.

While this isn't a big deal for clubs based in some states because there's generally a comparable local talent to pick instead, it can really tie the hands of the NSW and Qld clubs if it becomes as much of a trend as it seems to have started heading towards.

Basically the draft was set up in the current fashion for a reason - to ensure the worst clubs get the best talent. The more players who effectively nominate who they want to be drafted by, the more pointless the draft is in its current form.