2018 AFL Crowds & Ratings thread
- Thread starter The_Wookie
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Have a feeling our return game against Geelong will draw a tad more
MCG tipping 45k for Pies/Blues which if accurate would be the third lowest crowd between the sides since 1991 (and of those lower crowds was at Princes Park).
manicmagpie
A slice of fried gold
I don't care how badly the teams are going, these games should not drop below 50k.
manicmagpie
A slice of fried gold
The only other one lower was the infamous Sunday night fixture that caused the AFL to rightly completely abolish their experiment with the timeslot.
It's a Collingwood home game. If they were playing an interstate side one would expect 40k this weekend and this week has the added rivalry boost. You have Carlton playing terribly, but surely they will bring more than 5k fans along?
If this was a Carlton home game 40-45k would be realistic, but surely not for a Collingwood home game?
If this was a Carlton home game 40-45k would be realistic, but surely not for a Collingwood home game?
manicmagpie
A slice of fried gold
I think you're absolutely right, I would expect Collingwood to get over 40k to every team except GC, GWS and maybe Freo if we played them at the G this week. It's shocking to think Carlton couldn't lift this figure up by more than 5k. Though just going by the ones I know, it seems like this weekend was the last straw for a lot of Carlton fans, even diehard ones.
The weather forecast is currently ordinary, maybe that's being factored in by the MCG after being so far out with their prediction yesterday.
manicmagpie
A slice of fried gold
We're looking at getting around the 1.05 million mark, which means those 'poor crowds' overall are a good chance to end up better than any Richmond season ever prior to this one, including the one in which you won a flag. So if this year is poor I hate to think what your opinion on those is.
But yes, we started off very slowly as the expectation was all doom and gloom. From Round 3 onwards each individual crowd has at least been ok with the exception of the Geelong game which was well under par even if it was Mother's Day. The Richmond game was also under par for mine although it was still 70k so hard to complain too much.
Looking forward to some decent crowds on the run home if our form holds up. Unfortunately some of the best games on paper are against interstate sides (WC, Port) and our biggest rivals will have their seasons over when we play them which will keep things modest. If we win the games we should and can knock over 1 or both of West Coast and North then that Round 19 game against Richmond could be the massive one we've been waiting for.
- Dec 18, 2005
- 21,663
- 14,398
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Other Teams
- Richmond
Our time slots have been shite for a premiership team. Yesterday’s game should have been a Saturday game. Much better weather too. Would have got more like 70k
Craze
Premiership Player
- Aug 7, 2013
- 3,513
- 7,925
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Other Teams
- Steelers
So crowds are form-dependent and rely on form of rivals, which was the case for Richmond last year also.
- Thread starter
- Moderator
- #2,087
For once Kennett is right!
manicmagpie
A slice of fried gold
The trouble for Hawthorn is that although their remaining draw is very favourable in creating a charge to the finals, the venues are very unfavourable for getting good crowds. They don't play at the MCG again until August, and they only have 2 games left there for the season:
2 x MCG (Geelong, Essendon)
3 x Docklands (WB, StK, Carl)
2 x Launceston (Suns, Lions)
1 x Spotless
1 x Perth Stadium (Freo)
1 x SCG
Hard to see any big games in that lot with the exception of the Geelong one, which could be huge.
- Moderator
- #2,090
What.....You were the ONLY game on Sunday. Huge clean air. It should have been earlier on in the day but thats it.
If you were on Sat night, you would have had the Socceroos head on.
Also, the AFL can't predict the weather months in advance.
Hawthorn attendances vs. the 5 game average (home and away games, at the same ground)
Hawthorn v Collingwood - 58,051 (5 game average 57,798 at MCG)
Geelong v Hawthorn - 73,189 (5 game average 67,261 at MCG)
Richmond v Hawthorn - 70,701 (5 game average 55,841 at MCG)
Hawthorn v Melbourne - 41,973 (5 game average 39,673 at MCG)
North Melbourne v Hawthorn - 27,941 (5 game average 35,656 at Docklands)
Hawthorn v St Kilda - 15,781 (3 game average 17,544 in Tasmania)
Essendon v Hawthorn - 53,018 (5 game average 63,845 at MCG)
Hawthorn v Sydney - 32,784 (5 game average 60,909 at MCG)
Brisbane v Hawthorn - 20,684 (5 game average 27,899 at GABBA - 4 were pre 2010)
Hawthorn v West Coast - 28,077 (1 game 32,527 at Docklands, 5 game 34,624 at MCG)
Hawthorn v Port Adelaide - 13,007 (4 game average 15,874 in Tasmania)
Hawthorn v Adelaide - 26,673 (5 game average 34,452 at MCG)
Interesingly the first 4 Hawthorn games bested the average of the previous 5 games but it has been getting progressively worse since then. The best attendance was easily round 3, the worst was the Essendon and Sydney games which were 10,000 and 30,000 below expectation / average.
Interesingly Hawthorns home and away average is pretty much in line with its 2008-2017 decade (38,000 to 42,000) however the disparity between its home (30,904) and away (49,103) has never been more pronounced. Last year was pretty bad (33,103 / 45,519) as was 2012 (34,105 / 46,898) although both were the byproducts of shambolic home game scheduling and declining attendances to our 4 home fixtures in Tasmania...however until this year the MCG attendances have held up resiliently.
Hawthorn is usually good for 2-4 70k plus home and away attendances and another 1-2 in the 60k range but attendances yo yo so much between desirable and less desirable fixtures. What the club can do to arrest the malaise amongt the fan base is anyone's guess.
I think it’s actually reasonably simple to explain.. the Hawks on field fortunes have come off somewhat in the last 18 months Vs the previous 3-4 years. The Hawks are no longer the yardstick, the hunted club and therefore I believe there’s a cohort of neutral fans, and some of the more casual Hawks fans not going to Hawthorn games as a result.
There’s no doubt that a sizeable neutral following follow the top team and there regular blockbusters. Those Hawks V Swans, Dockers and other fixtures that have drawn in the 40-70K region mainly occurred during the golden run and in many instances were blockbuster type fixtures. Sizeable AFL and MCC neutrals filled the MCG over the last 4-5 years, and even since 2007.
Nowadays, and this is just my perception of the current Hawthorn, the Hawks are a dour side battling for a finals spot, just below the top contenders. They’re now not THE club to watch. I think this has seen the edge come off their attendances. It happened to Collingwood in recent years, Essendon before that.
Whilst weather and World Cups impact crowds, they always have and will... The 26,600 crowd last weekend was impacted to a degree by the World Cup but I think it was more a reflection of a fan base in a malaise, without a neutral top up and a lower interstate Crows rollup. World Cup aside it’s hard to imaging anymore than 33-35,000 turning up last Saturday night. Now that’s -15 to -20% Vs the crowd that probably would’ve turned up to this fixture two years ago.
I know this may be unpopular, but the AFL should have rescheduled two games when the World Cup draw was done and the Socceroos timeslots were known.
The hawks crows game should have moved to the next day (sunday) and the eagles bombers to the next day (friday - double header) or even the day before Wednesday night footy.
The hawks crows game should have moved to the next day (sunday) and the eagles bombers to the next day (friday - double header) or even the day before Wednesday night footy.
Why? Hawthorn Crows still probably rated 600K (with regionals) and the crowd was probably down 5 to 10K tops.
Would you have moved it to etihad the next day?
- Moderator
- #2,095
Previous Hawthorn v Adelaide matches...
Round 2 2017 37,470
Round 5 2016 45,789
Round 3 2012 33,574
Average - 38,927
That said it would be impossible to reschedule around the World Cup
Perhaps. That said Hawthorn’s home and away attendances have been rock solid in the 38,000 to 42,000 vacinity. Factor in the Tasmanian games and those numbers are extremely resilient. On the balance 4 of Hawthorn’s 12 games have bested their 5 game average during the glory years.
Depending on results they will still get their stock standard 2-4 70,000 attendances (although only one potentially could be a home game) and another game or two in the 60k vacinity (Collingwood round 1, maybe Essendon later this year). Given they only get 9 games at the MCG, 4 or 5 in the 60,000 / 70,000 range marks a considerable improvement on the pre 2008 numbers (where they bested 70,000 just 3 times in the 1925-2007 period).
The major problem for Hawthorn is that our higher drawing MCG games have been away games rather then home games - my guess is that this is partly a byproduct of the 4 games we play in Launceston and party by the vagaries of the draw. By playing away games at the MCG against do tenants it means we can sell more MCG designated home games to the membership.
There is no doubt that Hawthorn has grown considerably over the last 30 years, but the fluctuation between the best and worst is huge. I don’t buy that neutral thing, Hawthorn drew numbers to those matches that matched its club membership (2nd) as well as its MCC and AFL membership numbers (5th in both). Those don’t occur by coincidence. Does this also apply to the other large Victorian clubs or is it exclusively a Hawthorn thing?
To be honest a middling Hawthorn and Adelaide in winter was only ever going to draw mid 30,000’s. The average between the clubs in the post 2012 period was approx. 39,000. In round 20 2009 they drew around 33,000 but Hawthorn was shot by that point, that game outdrew the round 21 Richmond v Hawthorn game. Factor in the cold weather, the rugby and World Cup and it’s not surprising that the game drew 8,000 to 10,000 unders.
Speaking of games that celebrate club champions Hawthorn had 300 game celebrations for Burgoyne, Mitchell and Hodge in 2016 and 2017 and they drew 45,700, 52,400 and 70,700 (against Adelaide, Richmond and Geelong). Is 350 really a milestone? Surely the big game for Burgoyne was the round 5 2016 Adelaide game which drew around 20,000 more then Saturday?
The Hawthorn Sydney attendance on the other was horrible. That game drew 20,000 less then the equivalent fixture last year and 30,000 plus on the 2013-16 norm.
Ironically the home game sandwiched between the two MCG games (28,077 for West Coast at Docklands in the 1pm Sunday slot) drew comparatively well for an MCG tenant club. More then the 2015 game against Port and just 4,500 less then the prime time fixture against Eagles in 2013. Perhaps there is an argument that the Hawthorn membership has softened towards Docklands? More so then Richmond and Collingwood?
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Obviously blockbusters attract a neutral following to the MCG that is basically exclusively an MCG thing due to the AFL / MCC areas and due to its easy access. I think this isn’t a Hawthorn thing, rather a blockbuster thing. If Collingwood are on premiership lines, like the Tigers now, we would see a similar thing. Just as we did through the 2009-12 period for them.
An example: the Hawks V Swans game few few years back at the MCG that drew over 70,000 people had a near full AFL members stand that night. Now Hawthorn and Sydney couldn’t fill these 22,000 seats by themselves. I believe the two clubs combined have about 6,000 AFL members between them. Allowing for some of their guests, I would’ve thought upwards of 10,000 neutral AFL members filled the stands that night for what I think was a premiership replay blockbuster. The MCC would also have been supported in the night by neutrals.
Hence THE top team brings along the neutrals to their bigger games at the G during their golden periods. For some games it may only be a few thousand. But for the big blockbusters, that inflationery effect could be upwards of 20,000 people or more.
- Dec 18, 2005
- 21,663
- 14,398
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Other Teams
- Richmond
I mean Saturday afternoon game. We’ve had stuff all of them this year.
Naturally. Although the MCC and AFL membership both have guest passes etc. but lets not get into another slang match about crowd splits.
Notwithstanding my point about Hawthorn crowd's still applies. Hawthorn isn't drawing 40,000 plus to matches against West Coast, Fremantle, Adelaide as they have in past seasons but they are standing up relative to the indifferent performance on the field (relative to 2011-2016 anyway). Over 12 games they have drawn 38,487 to home and away fixtures featuring 2 games in Tasmania and 1 at the GABBA. That's reasonable when you consider that the clubs home and away peak is 41,915 in 2010 (with 12 MCG games).
In relative terms I thought that West Coast attendance was pretty decent - given Hawthorn members had to pre-reserve tickets with Ticketmaster which has been problematic in past seasons. In 2013 the two clubs played a prime time Friday Night fixture at Docklands and drew just 32,567 - when the preceding game in 2012 drew 50,023 (admittedly Hawthorn was vying for the minor premiership). Had that game been scheduled at Docklands in 2003 it probably would have drawn 17,000.
From 1925 to 2007 Hawthorn drew just 3 home and away games above 70,000 (1981 v Collingwood on QB, 1992 v Collingwood on Anzac Day and 1999 v Sydney at the last game at Waverley Park), in fact the clubs 3rd largest ever home game was just 55,019 v Essendon in 2007.
From 2008 onwards they have consistently drawn 60k plus to 4-5 home and away games every season (2 in 2008, 5 in 2009, 5 in 2010, 4 in 2011, 5 in 2012, 5 in 2013, 4 in 2014, 6 in 2015, 3 in 2016, 4 in 2017 and 2 so far in 2018). Many of those games were actually 70k plus. Who knows what will happen to their crowds over the next few years but what is clear is that their current baseline is several rungs higher then the pre 2008 era.
In terms of raw support its quite clear that Hawthorn ranks 5th amongst the Victorian clubs but has anyone ever claimed that it is much more? Its clear that Hawthorn has punched above its weight for club membership for years but club membership hasn't been a strong indicator of crowd support for decades...
The whole support thing is a bit of diversion by Kennett anyway. The Hawthorn rank and file want to know whats happening with Clarkson's contract, Dingley and a contingency plan for the clubs future without pokies revenue. These were the primary issues he was supposed to deal with when he came back to the presidency last year...
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