Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[LemmingMaster]

lue choices. I have some very different names in mind if I'm to list off some of my value picks.

Until the draft happens, we cannot know if our "value" picks are real value.

For example if Valente drifts out to pick 30 in the real draft, I will call that value.

Darling, Grundy are two recent examples of very highly rated players that drifted on draft night and become value picks. If you stated during the championships they would be value picks, you would have been laughed at, then the draft happens and a combination of shock as Dockers pick up Pitt instead of Darling! Or every club seeming to have someone rated just infront of Grundy and him sliding.

 

[Knightmare]

Until the draft happens, we cannot know if our "value" picks are real value.

For example if Valente drifts out to pick 30 in the real draft, I will call that value.

Darling, Grundy are two recent examples of very highly rated players that drifted on draft night and become value picks. If you stated during the championships they would be value picks, you would have been laughed at, then the draft happens and a combination of shock as Dockers pick up Pitt instead of Darling! Or every club seeming to have someone rated just infront of Grundy and him sliding.

I'm not talking guys such as Valente who are expected to get picked.

I'm talking about guys who may not get picked and are viewed as late picks as best.

That's what I'm talking about when I'm saying there are others I see as better value players.

Those types you're talking about. It's unrealistic to predict of those who will get drafted who does a Darling and Grundy and slides. They're more the types on draft night or in the closer leadup to the draft you can view as underrated, but this far out, value is more about those who aren't on most draft boards and picking those diamonds in the rough.

 

[LemmingMaster]

I'm not talking guys such as Valente who are expected to get picked.

I'm talking about guys who may not get picked and are viewed as late picks as best.

That's what I'm talking about when I'm saying there are others I see as better value players.

Those types you're talking about. It's unrealistic to predict of those who will get drafted who does a Darling and Grundy and slides. They're more the types on draft night or in the closer leadup to the draft you can view as underrated, but this far out, value is more about those who aren't on most draft boards and picking those diamonds in the rough.

True true.

Fraser Turner is currently potentially a value pick in my eyes.
Jacob Kennerley another value pick, but there are not a heap of rankings at the moment so I cannot tell if these players are actually rated or not.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

It's unrealistic to predict of those who will get drafted who does a Darling and Grundy and slides.

If you extend that group out to hyped juniors like Higgins, Battle, or even those who've gone completely undrafted such as Jonty Scharenberg, are there not lessons to be drawn around where amateur hype differs from professional assessment, with those players then perceived as sliding? And any prospects this year where that might apply?

 

[LemmingMaster]

If you extend that group out to hyped juniors like Higgins, Battle, or even those who've gone completely undrafted such as Jonty Scharenberg, are there not lessons to be drawn around where amateur hype differs from professional assessment? And any prospects this year where that might apply?

The best was Gourdis, he was top 5 on some boards and went undrafted.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Knightmare, are there many viable small forwards in this years draft pool? Especially someone with a little leg speed.

 

[Total Power]

Any ruckman in this years draft that we can draft with a 2nd or 3rd round pick that won't take years to develop? Port will be looking for a backup considering Ryder will be 31 next year.

 

[footylover18]

Knightmare, are there many viable small forwards in this years draft pool? Especially someone with a little leg speed.

Izaak Rankine

 

[footylover18]

Any ruckman in this years draft that we can draft with a 2nd or 3rd round pick that won't take years to develop? Port will be looking for a backup considering Ryder will be 31 next year.

You drafted Sam Hayes. Ryder still has a couple years left. Hayes can take over after that.

 

[Total Power]

You drafted Sam Hayes. Ryder still has a couple years left. Hayes can take over after that.

He did an ACL, and now he wont be ready by the time Ryder retires. We need a backup also need a plug and play ruckman if possible too if Ryder gets injured

 

[footylover18]

He did an ACL, and now he wont be ready by the time Ryder retires. We need a backup also need a plug and play ruckman if possible too if Ryder gets injured

i think the year off might extend Ryder's career a bit. I wouldnt be too worried about finding a replacement for next yr or the year after. I think Hayes will be ready to step up by the time you're ready to move on from Ryder.

Hampton isn't a viable stop gap?

 

[dirty2]

i think the year off might extend Ryder's career a bit. I wouldnt be too worried about finding a replacement for next yr or the year after. I think Hayes will be ready to step up by the time you're ready to move on from Ryder.

Hampton isn't a viable stop gap?

Ryders Achilles is a concern.
Frampton not up to It according to some people.

 

[Obeanie1]

He did an ACL, and now he wont be ready by the time Ryder retires. We need a backup also need a plug and play ruckman if possible too if Ryder gets injured

100% correct. Power cannot risk making it to September or the big dance without a viable backup and / or support for Ryder. Hayes is still a baby in rucking terms with or without a ACL injury.

Would have to be keen on Lycett.

Move Watts on to Gold Coast and use that cap space on Lycett.

 

[Obeanie1]

Hawthorn won the trade but Sydney still got a nice piece. Florent will be a good long term piece with his past month and a half fair evidence of this. It's just hard to see him achieving historically great numbers as Mitchell is.



Absolutely that top five looks special this year. Really that top 8 is special.

Will be hard to get O'Halloran unless Dogs get more picks. He could be a first rounder at years end, though more the back end of first round or second round is roughly where I see him at the moment.

I wouldn't be giving up a top five pick this year for two picks outside the top 10. Normally I'd be in favour of moving down a few positions for more first round picks, but with the top end talent this year, I'm not convinced it's the right move.

You'd have to be convinced a Bailey Smith would be there as that second best player in the draft for mine to execute that move, and I'm not seeing that happening the way he is playing.



Bailey Smith with Sam Walsh that other who you'd expect to line up round one.



If you don't mind going mature age Sam Collins is a plug and play key defender.

If you want to go younger Jordon Butts is my guy late draft. Had him inside my top 20 prospects last year, got overlooked, and he's continued where he left off last year.



The top 10 is special this year. There are a few other curious dynamics with what looks likely to be a combined record between father-son and all the academy prospects to be taken. Otherwise after that top 10, this draft becomes roughly a normal quality draft.

To combine the two drafts based on views at the time of the draft and the present views of this years draft I could see a rough draft order of *italics for 2017
1. Lukosius
2. Walsh
3. T.Thomas
4. M.King
5. B.King
6. Rayner
7. Rankine
8. Blakey
9. B.Smith
10. Brayshaw

Where does Cerra fit in?

And what would be fair / likely trade value for Cerra should he look to move back to Vic?

 

[Obeanie1]

So what would the Crows have to give up to land pick 1 or 2 to land their man Lukosius?

Mitch McGovern plus pick 8/9?

 

[RedmanWasHere]

He did an ACL, and now he wont be ready by the time Ryder retires. We need a backup also need a plug and play ruckman if possible too if Ryder gets injured

Surely Ladhams is a good fit.

 

[philthy05]

Yeah Hayes was tracking as being well ready to step up. Was coming on far quicker than expected. Now that acl will mean we can’t bank on him being ready next year. Frampton is having some very good games at sanfl level but coaches don’t seem interested and not sure his ruck craft is up to 1st ruck afl level. Ladhams is miles away from being ready. Ryder in many ways looks like he could ply for years but that Achilles could stop him. They are managing it right now and unsure how much relief the off season gives it.

Ideally we want ready ruck depth, but questions about whether a lycett makes us too tall if we play him forward, or if another backup ruck would be good enough ie better than Frampton and whether that ruck depth stalls our developing rucks progress by shifting them out of ruck time in reserves.

It’s a hugely complex situation where the right answer won’t be known until very late.

In an ideal world there would be a cheap ready ruck who is competitive kpp where we can stick him there in reserves who could do well at ruck at afl level.

 

[jedi mind tricks]

Hawthorn won the trade but Sydney still got a nice piece. Florent will be a good long term piece with his past month and a half fair evidence of this. It's just hard to see him achieving historically great numbers as Mitchell is.



Absolutely that top five looks special this year. Really that top 8 is special.

Will be hard to get O'Halloran unless Dogs get more picks. He could be a first rounder at years end, though more the back end of first round or second round is roughly where I see him at the moment.

I wouldn't be giving up a top five pick this year for two picks outside the top 10. Normally I'd be in favour of moving down a few positions for more first round picks, but with the top end talent this year, I'm not convinced it's the right move.

You'd have to be convinced a Bailey Smith would be there as that second best player in the draft for mine to execute that move, and I'm not seeing that happening the way he is playing.



Bailey Smith with Sam Walsh that other who you'd expect to line up round one.



If you don't mind going mature age Sam Collins is a plug and play key defender.

If you want to go younger Jordon Butts is my guy late draft. Had him inside my top 20 prospects last year, got overlooked, and he's continued where he left off last year.



The top 10 is special this year. There are a few other curious dynamics with what looks likely to be a combined record between father-son and all the academy prospects to be taken. Otherwise after that top 10, this draft becomes roughly a normal quality draft.

To combine the two drafts based on views at the time of the draft and the present views of this years draft I could see a rough draft order of *italics for 2017
1. Lukosius
2. Walsh
3. T.Thomas
4. M.King
5. B.King
6. Rayner
7. Rankine
8. Blakey
9. B.Smith
10. Brayshaw

I think long term Cerra will be better than Brayshaw

 

[GreyCrow]

So what would the Crows have to give up to land pick 1 or 2 to land their man Lukosius?

Mitch McGovern plus pick 8/9?

I think its a bridge too far to be honest. I think the Lynch signing today scuttles any hope of having enough to get to 1

 

[Bicks]

I think long term Cerra will be better than Brayshaw

He already is....pure silk.

 

[jedi mind tricks]

He already is....pure silk.

I think Brayshaw has been more consistent thus far. I just see his ceiling as higher and his best game so far being better.

Stephenson us unlucky to be named too

 

[GUMBLETRON]

As Knightmare said, he's comparing this year's crop to last year's as they were rated at the time of the draft - so Rayner and Brayshaw have to be the top two.

 

[dirty2]

I think its a bridge too far to be honest. I think the Lynch signing today scuttles any hope of having enough to get to 1

Think that was a pipe dream anyways... carlton/who ever would be crazy to trade pick 1

 

[adsla69k]

Hey KM.

I think Reed played well today and see him as a Hurley clone. Where do you think he will go in the draft?

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

So what would the Crows have to give up to land pick 1 or 2 to land their man Lukosius?

Mitch McGovern plus pick 8/9?

Crouch x 2 for pick 1 sounds fair value.