AFL 2018 - AFL Round 16

[Sausage Legs]

Matt Crouch O31.5 @ $2.12 - 15/25 last year, 5/10 this year (5/9 take out his injury game) and is slowly working into form this year post-injury. Tigers don't seem to mind the more contested mids stats-building, with Kennedy, Cunnington, Ross, Steven, Neale, Fyfe, Treloar all getting well over 30 this year against them and Wines/Selwood getting 29.

Could well go over but they been talkin he's got a small fracture in hand. Not sure if that affects anything

 

[Robo87]

Matt Crouch O31.5 @ $2.12 - 15/25 last year, 5/10 this year (5/9 take out his injury game) and is slowly working into form this year post-injury. Tigers don't seem to mind the more contested mids stats-building, with Kennedy, Cunnington, Ross, Steven, Neale, Fyfe, Treloar all getting well over 30 this year against them and Wines/Selwood getting 29.

relating to this can get crouch 31 pos+ and Crows win @9 lads. (or one with Dusty if you like the richmond win.)

 

[chrisdon16]

GWS +12.5

Surprised it's stayed at 12.5 considering West Coast haven't even named Kennedy, Daring or LeCras in emergencies. Not worried about Patton being out he's playing really poor, may upset the forward strucyust a bit but like the Giants here.

 

[mookieb]

I'm on the Tiger train. I expected the Crows to be competitive early so should have waited and bet in-play as you could have got -14.5. Betting against the Tigers at the MCG is madness.

Think that the Crows got flattered last week because they were well down against a team without a forward line. Their forward line is a bit dysfunctional without Betts and Cameron this year lacking crumbers. Most weeks their playing Poholke, Fogarty and Gallucci up forward with limited success.

Thinking Rich run away with it late.

 

[chrisdon16]

I'm on the Tiger train. I expected the Crows to be competitive early so should have waited and bet in-play as you could have got -14.5. Betting against the Tigers at the MCG is madness.

Think that the Crows got flattered last week because they were well down against a team without a forward line. Their forward line is a bit dysfunctional without Betts and Cameron this year lacking crumbers. Most weeks their playing Poholke, Fogarty and Gallucci up forward with limited success.

Thinking Rich run away with it late.

Hopefully the Crows have the lead going into HT

 

[sledbomber]

Anyone know where McGovern will be playing against GWS? Given the ins for Eagles looks like he will start back and he is also selected at CHB on the team sheet. I am still gonna have a little crack at him for Eagles first goal @ $34 with Will Hill. I also like Crossley at $26 for first GC goal. He kicked 1.2 last week and started forward.

 

[langdon19]

2u Sloane 6+ tackles @1.80 WH (averaging 7+ tackles in 2017 (&'16), should go close to that by end of 2018 too imo.)
1u Sloane Most tackles in group @7 Cr (Group of Greenwood, Graham, Gibbs, Sloane, Cotchin, Rioli, Caddy, Douglas)

Nice
Slone tied on 7, win??? I tailed so interesre

 

[Robo87]

2u Sloane 6+ tackles @1.80 WH (averaging 7+ tackles in 2017 (&'16), should go close to that by end of 2018 too imo.)
1u Sloane Most tackles in group @7 Cr (Group of Greenwood, Graham, Gibbs, Sloane, Cotchin, Rioli, Caddy, Douglas)
0.3u Rioli Most tackles in same group @11 Cr

Nice
Slone tied on 7, win??? I tailed so interesre

Think he splits with Graham cause they both got 7, so its been paid out @3.50 odds better than nothing.

 

[Sausage Legs]

All 1.88 or so.
max Gawn over 123 SuperCoach on betstar
Zac Merrett over 26.5 touches
SPP over 20.5 touches
Gaff over 29.5
Shuey over 24.5
Dogs +17
Oliver over 29.5
Lyons over 23.5
Vardy to kick a snag 1.62.

Little plays on
Willy Rioli 2+ snags 3.50
Josh Kelly 29 and gws win 5.75
Brown 5 snags and kangs win 5 bucks
Gray 4 snags and port win 5.75
Hunter 27 and dogs win 5.75
Dixon 4 snags and port win 7 bucks, doesn't kick a heap but no brown or Carlisle back for sainterz.
Hogan 4 and dees win 4.75
Dees 7+ last quarter goals 9 bucks
Paddy Ryder group b SuperCoach 3 bucks
Nic Nat most supercoach 9 bucks

Should see me out.

 

[HTPunter]

Like Brisbane/Carlton to be disposal heavy

Simpson O27.5 @ $1.90 (Pointsbet)
E.Curnow O25.5 @ $1.95 (Pointsbet)
Thomas O22.5 @ $1.87 (SB)
Robinson O22.5 @ $1.95 (Pointsbet)

Might have gone a bit silly but really do expect the game to be possession heavy - Carlton do like moving the ball through their experienced players and chip it around, while Robinson could follow Cripps around and be at the ball a lot.

Also don't think the markets have moved enough to reflect Billings` new roles.

Billings O22.5 @ $1.95

27 and 24 since coming back from 50+ in the VFL, not yet showing form to indicate you'd tag him over Jack Steven while Jade Gresham is the go to forward half midfielder for the Saints now - expect Port to put a lot of time into him and think Billings will roam around the wing and flanks for another 24-25

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Like Brisbane/Carlton to be disposal heavy

Simpson O27.5 @ $1.90 (Pointsbet)
E.Curnow O25.5 @ $1.95 (Pointsbet)
Thomas O22.5 @ $1.87 (SB)
Robinson O22.5 @ $1.95 (Pointsbet)

Might have gone a bit silly but really do expect the game to be possession heavy - Carlton do like moving the ball through their experienced players and chip it around, while Robinson could follow Cripps around and be at the ball a lot.

Also don't think the markets have moved enough to reflect Billings` new roles.

Billings O22.5 @ $1.95

27 and 24 since coming back from 50+ in the VFL, not yet showing form to indicate you'd tag him over Jack Steven while Jade Gresham is the go to forward half midfielder for the Saints now - expect Port to put a lot of time into him and think Billings will roam around the wing and flanks for another 24-25

They're crazy low disposal lines

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[puntking]

freo with line good bet atm as melb terrible form and cant play tio ground

 

[chrisdon16]

freo with line good bet atm as melb terrible form and cant play tio ground

No Fyfe...

 

[capperscap]

No Fyfe...

Agree, plus Freo lost by 10 goals to the lions at home last week last week.
On the other hand, Melbourne have swung the axe at the selection table and will be absolutely desperate to win. I can't see them losing this.

 

[chrisdon16]

Agree, plus Freo lost by 10 goals to the lions at home last week last week.
On the other hand, Melbourne have swung the axe at the selection table and will be absolutely desperate to win. I can't see them losing this.

They won't lose, not sure if they cover the line they're playing pretty bad. But, it's pretty likely. Freo are horrendous on the road without Fyfe.

 

[AFLFootyChick]

They won't lose, not sure if they cover the line they're playing pretty bad. But, it's pretty likely. Freo are horrendous on the road without Fyfe.

Freo were horrendous at home last week too, even with Fyfe for the first part of the game. Losing to Brisbane by 50 plus points at Optus does not stand them in good stead for a good showing at TIO a week later...

 

[HTPunter]

5 of Fremantles 8 losses this year have been 40+.

4 of Melbournes 8 wins have been 40+, with 3 in between the 36-39 point region too.

Their record in Darwin is largely incomparable to the current team. Much better traveling team who have won 3/4 interstate this year and got scalps in WA & SA last year, compared to the 2013-2016 Demons who won about 1 interstate game.

Think the Demons should get over the 40 point line here. A big scoring team (highest in the league) who have capitalised v poor teams this year, who travel well and have Max Gawn v a side that routinely gets flogged (13 40+ losses in their last 36 games) without Fyfe, Sandilands...

 

[Woody15]

Melbourne 60+ @ $2.63 surely worth a stab.

 

[capperscap]

They won't lose, not sure if they cover the line they're playing pretty bad. But, it's pretty likely. Freo are horrendous on the road without Fyfe.

I saw you posted earlier in this thread that you like Giants at the line . I also like this bet, actually i'm tempted to pound it.
How confident are you?
I look at the eagles team on paper and they look pretty average without kennedy, darling, le car, barass etc.
I think the Giants will win here.

 

[chrisdon16]

I saw you posted earlier in this thread that you like Giants at the line . I also like this bet, actually i'm tempted to pound it.
How confident are you?
I look at the eagles team on paper and they look pretty average without kennedy, darling, le car, barass etc.
I think the Giants will win here.

Pretty confident, Eagles are struggling up forward (obviously) without their 3 best targets, plus against one of the best defences in the comp can't see them kicking a winning score. Should still be a tight game so really like the Giants at the line here. Think the bookies are overrating the loss of Patton a lot. He may hurt their structure a bit but shouldn't make a big impact.

 

[Lensen]

Cameron Greene Patton not GWS best three targets I suppose

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Kade Simpson out for the Blues. Part of me wonders if they are going down the 'M1 Abrams' route.

After all, a loss here just about guarantees first choice in the 2018 National Draft. $1.30 is certainly 'better than bank interest', as they say. Here's the problem: Brisbane out-did North last year in a late-season Battle of El Alamein. I was pretty unhappy about it tbh, and nothing from LDU so far this season has changed my mind about that, but I digress.

Anyway, I'm tempted to do a capperscap special and bankroll-job Brisbane for this one. Probably won't, simply because the scars of the Bris-North match last year are still too painful. Would rather not bet and risk missing out on free money, than load up on Brisbane and then spend the rest of the weekend saying, 'fool me once, shame on me...'

As for Melbourne-Freo, I for one am loading up on Melbourne. They lost to a red-hot St. Kilda (no I'm not joking, St Kilda were due to click eventually), a top-four Collingwood, who else? The biggest Flat Track Bullies since Matthew Hayden vs a Fyfeless Freo. 80+ could be on the cards.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Simpson out, Murphy 25.5 disposal at b365 could be good gunna be used a lot now at half back especially without simmo should rack up a few cheap ones

 

[GROTTO]

Kade Simpson out for the Blues. Part of me wonders if they are going down the 'M1 Abrams' route.

After all, a loss here just about guarantees first choice in the 2018 National Draft. $1.30 is certainly 'better than bank interest', as they say. Here's the problem: Brisbane out-did North last year in a late-season Battle of El Alamein. I was pretty unhappy about it tbh, and nothing from LDU so far this season has changed my mind about that, but I digress.

Anyway, I'm tempted to do a capperscap special and bankroll-job Brisbane for this one. Probably won't, simply because the scars of the Bris-North match last year are still too painful. Would rather not bet and risk missing out on free money, than load up on Brisbane and then spend the rest of the weekend saying, 'fool me once, shame on me...'

As for Melbourne-Freo, I for one am loading up on Melbourne. They lost to a red-hot St. Kilda (no I'm not joking, St Kilda were due to click eventually), a top-four Collingwood, who else? The biggest Flat Track Bullies since Matthew Hayden vs a Fyfeless Freo. 80+ could be on the cards.

Carlton this arvo

 

[chrisdon16]

Cameron Greene Patton not GWS best three targets I suppose

Not anywhere near the impact of Kennedy, Darling and LeCras