Analysis Did Spud call it correctly. Is Hawthorns 2015 flag tainted?

[PetterdHoisted]

Just had a look and if we are removing gws and Gold Coast and shuffling our picks forward I just worked out that our first picks from 2010-14 could have landed us tom lynch, Elliot yeo, Brodie Grundy and Matt crouch, more than happy for that to have happened

Yeah but you are also no longer one of two destination clubs for trading/FA (with Syd) so no Brian Lake etc.

A few teams were up when GC/GWS came in, full credit Hawks for exploiting it, but glad the Tiges premiership has no associated asterisks, did it the hard way in an equalised comp.

 

[Darkyprotector]

Every flag in history is tainted. Nothing to see here.

2017 Richmond. = cotchin non suspension
2016 dogs. = Wada appeal representation
2015 hawks = free kick hawthorn. Inside knowledge and umpires advisor. Evans


Yeah see what you mean

 

[footy75]

Hawks were the best team across those years. No ifs, buts or blurred lines.

They backed up their performance week after week, year and after year to achieve what they did and that shouldn’t be tainted.

Most of those draftees weren’t making huge impacts during those years to warrant enough argument on the topic. Only now are we seeing their true impact, making this discussion irrelevant

This campaigner gets it..... read this then close the thread.

Powerrrrrrrrrrrrrr has a greater football IQ than Danny Frawley.

 

[Darkyprotector]

Actually interesting point. So clubs were impacted on the talent they could bring in, yet the Hawks raided other clubs for top end talent to keep it going ala Frawley and Lake for example, possibly increasing the gap.

Inside knowledge

 

[PetterdHoisted]

Hawks also had their draft picks compromised, more so if they were finishing higher up the ladder... or am I missing something?

Yes. Draft talent does not decay linearly from 1-18. It's highly skewed to the top 5-10 depending on the year.

So, getting bumped from a pick 3 to a pick 11 hurts much more than pick 18 dropping to 26.

Trade/FA destination club status was the bigger gift the Hawks received though.

good that all this is finally being discussed in mainstream media.

 

[Darkyprotector]

Also, Hawthorn had Buddy Franklin, one of the best 2 players in the AFL taken from us due to COLA. He was heading to GWS until Sydney cut their lunch. How many other clubs lost a player of that ability and yet still managed to win the next 2 flags? I'm getting a little tired of these feeble attempts at discrediting Hawthorn's 3-peat.

Great effort that 3 peat

Hilarious the exodus from afl house when 4 wasn't achieved

Co incidence?

 

[Lsta062]

Tigers
Chaplin Rance Tomlinson (lose Lose Elton)
Grimes Newman K.Kolodashnij (lose Lennon)
Gaff (lose Conca) Cotchin Houli
Stringer (lose Vlaustin) Riewoldt Lloyd
Edwards J.Cameron (lose Ellis) Deledio
Hickey (lose Batchelor) Miles Martin

Maric would probably be ahead of Hickey in that team.

This would be a fairly decent side IMO. I remember during those years that we did have the stars but struggled to find a solid second tier. This would give us a solid second tier since none of our losses (including Vlastuin) were elite during the 2013-2015 years.

Would we have won the Premiership? I don't know, because Hawthorn's three-peat side was a really good side.

 

[Darkyprotector]

Spud is a dud when it comes to football analysis. It takes years for the draft to make an impact, usually about 7.
This theory has been well debated on bigfooty (mainly in Lance's mega thread) and has been shot to pieces.
It's called a correlation.
The only premiership that could possibly be tainted would be one that in future it was found to have some performance enhancing drugs or betting irregularities.

What like the smelling salts

Or a umpire advisor
Or a CEO who supports
Or a administrator who controls umpires and fixturing

Who ALL LEFT after 3 flags


Hang on that's the hawks

 

[Darkyprotector]

Interesting discussion but Hawthorn won three premierships because they were the best to identify what their team needed earlier than their competitors. They then went about selling themselves to players they wanted who then bought into their system.
They also were the best coached team.

A well balanced team with a great coach was always going to put itself up there to win flags.

Definitely not tainted. That is going overboard.

History lesson

Why was North first club to know about the 10 year rule and subsequently signed all the cream prior to ratification whilst VOTING AGAINST the motion

Why were the Hawks first club to know about expansion thus signing experienced players knowing that a diluted draft was comming

Aylett scanlon vfl pres and commission

Demetriou and evans

Still thinking there's no smell

Well done spud

 

[Darkyprotector]

Why was Hawthorn and no one else a beneficiary of the new teams?

Surely Geelong and the Pies should of benefited just as much, being top sides when the expansion clubs came in?

You would have thought so

Bit like thes new rules trials
Funny how only 1 club got the heads up on expansion

But it helps to have afl house STACKED

 

[Darkyprotector]

So Frawley begrudges the hawks recognising that quality draft picks were going to be a problem and instead puts a different plan in place and reaps the benefits for forward thinking

Seems legit


If you are going to put an asterisk against 15 then the same lack of drafting options would still be impacting in 16 and 17.

You got prior knowledge

A head start

He's right and good on him to have the BALLS

Like the ten year rule
Like the zone changes
Like the new rules trials
Like the umpires advisors and afl admin and tribunal

Learn your history been going on for at least 80 years maybe longer

Always aids a few

 

[Lsta062]

From other teams, Carlton, Essendon, Melbourne and North Melbourne would look solid with those players in the 2013-2015 era as well as Richmond. Geelong and Fremantle look like they could give the Hawthorn side a genuine challenge.

However, I imagine that Hawthorn's side would still be the best. That team just worked really well as an entire unit and that is what stood them apart from the other sides to begin with - even in the 2013-2015 era. Remember the whole 'team of champions' in Sydney vs the 'champion team' in Hawthorn in 2014? Sydney had talent, but could not overcome the team that worked so well as a team.

Yeah, some other sides would have gotten much closer to Hawthorn in terms of talent, but talent alone does not necessarily get you Premierships. How you gel and bond as a team is also very important, and there was no side during that time that bonded like Hawthorn.

Also, Richmond for example would have a much better best 22 with that list, but Hardwick for example was not the coach (in Hawthorn's three-peat era) that he is now. Alistair Clarkson was still the best tactical coach with a really good side, so I can't say that shuffling the GWS and Gold Coast talent through the other sides would stop Hawthorn from getting their three-peat. There is so much more than just talent that got Hawthorn their Premierships, so I just say we take Hawthorn's Premierships as it is and just leave it at that.

 

[Darkyprotector]

Going by the somewhat failure of GC and GWS so far you can’t really argue that the players they both selected would’ve added much in those early years of expansion. Hawks were smart recruiting Lake and Burgoyne for starters, had little to do with 18 year old draftees.

Inside knowledge helps heaps

 

[Holy Rioli]

Inside knowledge helps heaps

You okay there buddy?

 

[Colonial]

Yawn

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

 

[Nop returns]

Spuds a douche. The biggest blight on our history is that he held the mantle of our most succesful coach for 16 years.
Flags are too hard to win for any of them to be tainted.

 

[Nop returns]

2017 Richmond. = cotchin non suspension
2016 dogs. = Wada appeal representation
2015 hawks = free kick hawthorn. Inside knowledge and umpires advisor. Evans


Yeah see what you mean

Pies 2010- replay instead of extra time

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

From other teams, Carlton, Essendon, Melbourne and North Melbourne would look solid with those players in the 2013-2015 era as well as Richmond. Geelong and Fremantle look like they could give the Hawthorn side a genuine challenge.

However, I imagine that Hawthorn's side would still be the best. That team just worked really well as an entire unit and that is what stood them apart from the other sides to begin with - even in the 2013-2015 era. Remember the whole 'team of champions' in Sydney vs the 'champion team' in Hawthorn in 2014? Sydney had talent, but could not overcome the team that worked so well as a team.

Yeah, some other sides would have gotten much closer to Hawthorn in terms of talent, but talent alone does not necessarily get you Premierships. How you gel and bond as a team is also very important, and there was no side during that time that bonded like Hawthorn.

Also, Richmond for example would have a much better best 22 with that list, but Hardwick for example was not the coach (in Hawthorn's three-peat era) that he is now. Alistair Clarkson was still the best tactical coach with a really good side, so I can't say that shuffling the GWS and Gold Coast talent through the other sides would stop Hawthorn from getting their three-peat. There is so much more than just talent that got Hawthorn their Premierships, so I just say we take Hawthorn's Premierships as it is and just leave it at that.

All if that, and the distribution is essentially a fantasy. For example Dylan Shiel and Jeremy Cameron were underage selections. They were simply listed by the club and never went to the draft. Assigning them draft spots arbitrarily in their draft year, with the benefit of hindsight, is a stretch.

The players taken in the mini drafts referred to in the OP could never actually play for GWS. They had to be traded. They well have ended up somewhere else but again it's a stretch to guess where.

It's fine as a game as long as no one pretends it's an accurate representation of what would have happened, in my view.

 

[Crankyhawk]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...f/news-story/8323e52f3c20782d116df887e3a14505

Rockliff was allegedly $2.8m over 4, band 2. But the AFL make it up as they go along and keep their magic formulas in house. If they wanted to give Brisbane pick 2 they would have.

The absurdity of the system is that it tops out at a first round pick dependent on ladder position. If Martin chose to walk last year Richmond would've ended up with pick 19 too which is silly. If it's possible for James Frawley to earn a club pick 4 then it should be possible for the best player in the comp earning $500k+ more a season to earn a higher band.

They even have a provision to alter if the formula delivers a "materially anomalous result". Look for them to pull this trigger for GC if Lynch and May walk.

 

[Burtman]

Yeah but you are also no longer one of two destination clubs for trading/FA (with Syd) so no Brian Lake etc.

A few teams were up when GC/GWS came in, full credit Hawks for exploiting it, but glad the Tiges premiership has no associated asterisks, did it the hard way in an equalised comp.

Teams are now only feeling the effects of losing those players as those players from those drafts are just coming into their peaks, so 100% yours are tainted

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

You okay there buddy?

I think that he might be struggling to see that B17 on the moon now it's daylight.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Great effort that 3 peat

Hilarious the exodus from afl house when 4 wasn't achieved

Co incidence?

We’ve hit peak stupid.

 

[mick500]

Geez, next we will be saying the eagles / cousins premiership is tainted.

 

[Vindicater]

And we finally now know who Lance Uppercut really is!

 

[PetterdHoisted]

Teams are now only feeling the effects of losing those players as those players from those drafts are just coming into their peaks, so 100% yours are tainted

Once again, draft talent is heavily skewed to to the top 10. Ergo, top teams at the time like Hawks/Syd/Geel got bumped down from pick 17-18 to pick 25-26, and barely noticed.

bottom sides at the time like Melb/Rich get top 10 picks bumped into the teens. Huge loss.

GC/GCS draft concessions disproportionately disadvantaged the bottoms sides, which kept them at the bottom for longer than normal, thus making the top sides at the time destination clubs, further cementing their advantage.

A nasty feedback loop unless u were hawk/Syd/Geel fans