AFL 2018 Brownlow Medal

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Last edited:
TheJanuaryMan said:
Look at it this way..how many team.votes do we expect Carlton to poll?
Brisbane were bottom last year with 5 wins and polled 47 team votes.

Lets say Carlton ger 32+ as a team for the season. Then consider how many of those will go to players other than Cripps. Won't be many - hence why he is shorter than ladder position normally suggests. In theory.
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I think a better comparison is GWs and Melbourne in 2013 - 1 and 2 wins respectively - for 17 and 16 total team votes
 

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ROUND 17

ADEL v GEEL
3 P Dangerfield (Geel)
2 R Laird (Adel)
1 R Sloane (Adel)

ST K v CARL
3 J Steven (St K)
2 J Steele (St K)
1 P Cripps (Carl)

HAW v BRIS
3 D Beams (Bris)
2 J O'Meara (Haw)
1 A Witherden (Bris)

MELB v WB
3 A Brayshaw (Melb)
2 M Gawn (Melb)
1 J Macrae (WB)

GC v ESS
3 D Heppell (Ess)
2 K Langford (Ess)
1 Z Merrett (Ess)

GWS v RICH
3 C Ward (GWS)
2 D Martin (Rich)
1 S Coniglio (GWS)

COLL v WCE
3 J Redden (WCE)
2 J McGovern (WCE)
1 L Shuey (WCE)

NM v SYD
3 J Ziebell (NM)
2 I Heeney (Syd)
1 B Ronke (Syd)

FREO v PA
3 D Mundy (Freo)
2 L Neale (Freo)
1 O Wines IPA)

LEADERBOARD

22 M Gawn (Melb)
20 T Mitchell (Haw), P Cripps (Carl)
19 D Martin (Rich)
18 D Heppell (Ess), D Beams (Bris)
17 N Fyfe* (Freo), S Higgins (NM), J Macrae (WB)
16 A Gaff (WCE), L Neale (Freo)
 

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Jugada said:
Yes. Tie equals odds split however many number of ways there is a tie
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This is where I'd jump on the live chat (not that I'd ever back a Brownlow winner anyway). But the market is to win the brownlow, even if it's a 12 way tie it makes the player in question a Brownlow medallist. Haven't bothered checking T&C's to see what they say but if there's no mention in there then I think you'd be within your rights to expect a full payout.
 
Aussie_boy said:
This is where I'd jump on the live chat (not that I'd ever back a Brownlow winner anyway). But the market is to win the brownlow, even if it's a 12 way tie it makes the player in question a Brownlow medallist. Haven't bothered checking T&C's to see what they say but if there's no mention in there then I think you'd be within your rights to expect a full payout.
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Nope they would be a tied brownlow medalist and your odds would be divided, same as if i backed a horse in the Melbourne Cup and its a dead heat for first. Id guarantee their terms and conditions say dead heat rules apply
 
Jugada said:
Nope they would be a tied brownlow medalist and your odds would be divided, same as if i backed a horse in the Melbourne Cup and its a dead heat for first. Id guarantee their terms and conditions say dead heat rules apply
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Having a look at Sportsbets T&C's and dead heats are only mentioned in regards to H2H Brownlow bets.
 
Surely the umpires are more clued in than ever to what constitutes a best on ground performance. 50 insignificant touches in a loss is not a b.o.g performance. Titchell ridiculously short @$2.40. Unsure who pips him but he'd be a very poor Brownlow medalist.
 
banana_bus said:
Surely the umpires are more clued in than ever to what constitutes a best on ground performance. 50 insignificant touches in a loss is not a b.o.g performance. Titchell ridiculously short @$2.40. Unsure who pips him but he'd be a very poor Brownlow medalist.
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Also reflects that his major rivals are a ruckman (lel) and a bloke whose team gets flogged by 10 goals every week
 
I maintain there are good value options being missed by those focussing on just Gawn, Titch and Cripps. The $126 on Beams some weeks back is long gone but stlll $21 on Sportsbet, for one. Good shopping and potentially Cash Out available on Dyson Heppell also.
 
Brownlow wide open

Mitchell and Cripps leading the pack.
Both still under 20 votes imo.
Gawn will underpoll as rucks do
Still mid teens as we speak.

There is a whole bunch between 11-15 votes.
If blues get flogged badly make it hard for Cripps to our poll Mitchell

If Mitchell goes quiet next couple look for value as there’s potential winners right down to 50-1 atm
 
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