Hawthorn vs Geelong MCG- Saturday July 20th 2019 - Edited Page 18 current discussion

[Isaba]

I thought it was a fun bit of wordplay, but god damn didn't you guys flock to it like moths to a flame! Really hit a nerve

I mean, all he really said was Scott was prone to pantomimic displays, do you disagree?!

Chris Scott is a ******* embarrassment the way he carries on in the box.

 

[Isaba]

S

Virtually every single time these two sides play each other, there is a period in the game when the umps, doesn’t seem to matter who, absolutely bend over backwards, turn themselves inside out and fall all over themselves attempting to get the cats over the line or get them back into the game. Just as a few examples, see the last 2 minutes of the 3rd quarter of the 08 GF, the last 5 mins of the 3rd quarter of the 13 PF, and in the abovementioned game, virtually the entire last quarter. I wonder when it will be this week...

Spot on Roddy - they always get a period where absolutely everything goes their way, especially as we're about to land the killer blow.

 

[threesixpio]

Heart attack games. Almost everyone of them. Also great games.

I think what’s interesting is the effect of the week before. The Cats almost beat top of the ladder Tiges.

But this is double edged in a way. Maybe the Cats are a bit spooked by not winning the close ones.

Conversely, Hawthorn won a close one in a classic encounter last week. No way am I comparing the Bombers to the Tiges but winning a close one...

So the Cats won’t want it to be close in my view. Turn of the tables. In the old days Cats would win the close ones against us. Just not the same gritty team anymore

 

[Fabes]

All I can say is I hope it's a ripper contest of a game. Good luck to both sets of fans (yes I'm wishing Cats fans good luck!) ...and may the best team win!

Just enjoy the game guys and gals. Unlike most of you who get to watch it, I'm up in Shitty QLD where they'd rather show Richmond v Gold Coast on TV than an actual game that means something!!

...Carn Hawks!

 

[Bardo State]

Both teams have very similar records. Let's look at this by the numbers.

Hawthorn: 12 wins, 7 losses, 121%, 1738 points for (91 pts average), 1432 points against (75 pts average)

Geelong: 11 wins, 8 losses, 119%, 1685 points for (89 pts average), 1418 points against (75 pts average)

So both teams tend to score and concede at about the same level this season. But they have two quite different ways of doing it. Hawthorn have been a team that has focused on territory while the cats have been focused on efficiency.

Inside 50s

Hawthorn average 10 more inside 50s than their opponent, second in the league. Geelong average 1 fewer inside 50 than their opponent, 11th in the league with Sydney the only other finals chance below them. Hawthorn are a repeat entries tea, that plays from the front and zones aggressively to force opposition kicks down the line to the wing and cut out diagonal balls through the corridor. In fact, Hawthorn average the fewest Rebound 50s compared to their opposition in the competition. Geelong by contrast are a rebounding team, that plays from the back. The Swans are at the extreme end of this but Geelong would be next in line of the finals contenders. Both teams are set up to counter and exploit the others' style. Hawthorn risks space out the back and efficient opposition scoring to lock the ball into their 50. The cats back themselves to prevent scoring from stoppages in their defensive 50 and efficiently score on the break from fast corridor movement.

Disposal

There isn't a massive gap between the teams in terms of how many disposals they rack up. The Cats are 4th and the Hawks 8th in this area. Where they do vary is the type of disposal. Geelong are second in the league for handball differential (+20 per game over the opposition). By contrast, Hawthorn are 11th, averaging about 4 fewer handballs than their opposition. With kicking, the trend is reversed with Hawthorn 3rd in the league (+14 per game) and Geelong 10th (+1 per game).

Marking

So does this mean that Hawthorn is playing the typical Clarkson 'keepings off' game style? Actually, no! Those kicks typically aren't translating into marks. For marks, Hawthorn are 5th and the Cats 7th. If you want to know which team is using that old Clarkson style, look to West Coast, who are top of kicking and marking differentials. So Hawthorns kick dominance is typically coming from quick kicks from clearances or kicks to contests (which the Hawks don't plan on marking). This reflects back to the inside 50s difference. Hawthorn this year is playing a territory game, while the cats are focused on quality of ball movement, sacrificing pure territory. The Cats' kicks are more likely to end up in marks. Their inside 50s are more likely to end up in goals. They just get fewer of them.

Tackles

The biggest disparity between the two teams is their tackle counts. The Hawks are second in the league at +7 per game, while the Cats are all the way down at 16th with -6 tackles per game compared to their opposition. This is the exclamation point on the difference between the two styles. Hawthorn plan to create stoppages while the Cats plan to create more free flowing ball movement. Geelong don't commit to the man with the ball as much outside their defensive 50 so they can have numbers elsewhere in anticipation of the kick forward or the turnover.

So who wins, then?

I dunno. My gut says the Cats will have the edge with the form of players like Kelly, Hawkins and Duncan. The Hawks won't own the ruck contests as much as they did in the first match due to McEvoy's absence. My head says that both teams have been about as effective and consistent as each other with both having decent, but not fantastic recent form. Geelong have made 5 changes to the named lineup which can have a destabilising effect. Hawthorn's engine room (Mitchell, O'Meara, Shiels and now Worpel) are all in fantastic form.

Cats by 7

 

[bumsonseats]

I forgot Geelong were 1st in the moral victories ladder

You dominated us last week, according to Chris Scott. Our +17 I50’s were an aberration.

Hawthorn will win by 60+ this week and Geelong won’t be able to finish in the top 9 unfortunately

Geel pushed you to the wire last week.
IF Ablett kicks a goal you would expect him to kick 8/10 times, you would be laughing on the other side of your face.

Geel will make the 8 - regardless of the result this week, and they will not be the walk over Ric fans expected last week if you have to play them in a final.
And quite frankly, the only reason you suggest they miss the 8 is because you know deep down that they can beat you and that little silver cup that you have both hands firmly attached to will go somewhere else.....will be such a shame.

The difference from last year is that you are the hunted now, and all the other teams in the 8 are coming for you. Get used to it.

 

[Hundred_Thousand_Tigers]

Geel pushed you to the wire last week.
IF Ablett kicks a goal you would expect him to kick 8/10 times, you would be laughing on the other side of your face.

Geel will make the 8 - regardless of the result this week, and they will not be the walk over Ric fans expected last week if you have to play them in a final.
And quite frankly, the only reason you suggest they miss the 8 is because you know deep down that they can beat you and that little silver cup that you have both hands firmly attached to will go somewhere else.....will be such a shame.

The difference from last year is that you are the hunted now, and all the other teams in the 8 are coming for you. Get used to it.

Yep, we let them have a flurry of late goals after we thought the game was won, giving Ablett a chance to beat us.

I’d love to play Geelong in a final at the MCG again where the boys actually go for the kill

What does hunted even mean? Every team every week is hunted.

I’m more worried about Hawthorn than Geelong

 

[bumsonseats]

Both teams have very similar records. Let's look at this by the numbers.

Hawthorn: 12 wins, 7 losses, 121%, 1738 points for (91 pts average), 1432 points against (75 pts average)

Geelong: 11 wins, 8 losses, 119%, 1685 points for (89 pts average), 1418 points against (75 pts average)

So both teams tend to score and concede at about the same level this season. But they have two quite different ways of doing it. Hawthorn have been a team that has focused on territory while the cats have been focused on efficiency.

Inside 50s

Hawthorn average 10 more inside 50s than their opponent, second in the league. Geelong average 1 fewer inside 50 than their opponent, 11th in the league with Sydney the only other finals chance below them. Hawthorn are a repeat entries tea, that plays from the front and zones aggressively to force opposition kicks down the line to the wing and cut out diagonal balls through the corridor. In fact, Hawthorn average the fewest Rebound 50s compared to their opposition in the competition. Geelong by contrast are a rebounding team, that plays from the back. The Swans are at the extreme end of this but Geelong would be next in line of the finals contenders. Both teams are set up to counter and exploit the others' style. Hawthorn risks space out the back and efficient opposition scoring to lock the ball into their 50. The cats back themselves to prevent scoring from stoppages in their defensive 50 and efficiently score on the break from fast corridor movement.

Disposal

There isn't a massive gap between the teams in terms of how many disposals they rack up. The Cats are 4th and the Hawks 8th in this area. Where they do vary is the type of disposal. Geelong are second in the league for handball differential (+20 per game over the opposition). By contrast, Hawthorn are 11th, averaging about 4 fewer handballs than their opposition. With kicking, the trend is reversed with Hawthorn 3rd in the league (+14 per game) and Geelong 10th (+1 per game).

Marking

So does this mean that Hawthorn is playing the typical Clarkson 'keepings off' game style? Actually, no! Those kicks typically aren't translating into marks. For marks, Hawthorn are 5th and the Cats 7th. If you want to know which team is using that old Clarkson style, look to West Coast, who are top of kicking and marking differentials. So Hawthorns kick dominance is typically coming from quick kicks from clearances or kicks to contests (which the Hawks don't plan on marking). This reflects back to the inside 50s difference. Hawthorn this year is playing a territory game, while the cats are focused on quality of ball movement, sacrificing pure territory. The Cats' kicks are more likely to end up in marks. Their inside 50s are more likely to end up in goals. They just get fewer of them.

Tackles

The biggest disparity between the two teams is their tackle counts. The Hawks are second in the league at +7 per game, while the Cats are all the way down at 16th with -6 tackles per game compared to their opposition. This is the exclamation point on the difference between the two styles. Hawthorn plan to create stoppages while the Cats plan to create more free flowing ball movement. Geelong don't commit to the man with the ball as much outside their defensive 50 so they can have numbers elsewhere in anticipation of the kick forward or the turnover.

So who wins, then?

I dunno. My gut says the Cats will have the edge with the form of players like Kelly, Hawkins and Duncan. The Hawks won't own the ruck contests as much as they did in the first match due to McEvoy's absence. My head says that both teams have been about as effective and consistent as each other with both having decent, but not fantastic recent form. Geelong have made 5 changes to the named lineup which can have a destabilising effect. Hawthorn's engine room (Mitchell, O'Meara, Shiels and now Worpel) are all in fantastic form.

Cats by 7

Great summary
I think if the Cats adopt a play on handball style of game, this will disrupt the Hawthorn defensive setup and create scoring opportunities. If they move the ball slowly and methodically, this allows Hawks to setup defensively.

I think this is where the game is win and lost.

I would like to see our boys take the game on a bit more, but not sure we have the cattle just yet.

The weather might just play a part also. Over-possessing the ball by hand might not be the way to go if it is a wet game. I think this favours the Hawks - marginally.

 

[bumsonseats]

Yep, we let them have a flurry of late goals after we thought the game was won, giving Ablett a chance to beat us.

I’d love to play Geelong in a final at the MCG again where the boys actually go for the kill

What does hunted even mean? Every team every week is hunted.

I’m more worried about Hawthorn than Geelong

That’s the things with Geel though....they keep coming. I doubt your lot put the queue in the rack. Geel just threw caution to the wind and nearly pinched it. They did the same to us earlier in the year.

Last year Ric was a bit of a novalty....they couldn’t could they. Everyone was watching Adelaide thinking they were the team to beat. Teams now putting a lot more time into you, and some even adopting similar game plans.....ie Collingwood.

But teams have had a good chance to analyse your game style over the last 12 months. They are not looking to show their tricks in round 10, but when it matters.

 

[bumsonseats]

Heart attack games. Almost everyone of them. Also great games.

I think what’s interesting is the effect of the week before. The Cats almost beat top of the ladder Tiges.

But this is double edged in a way. Maybe the Cats are a bit spooked by not winning the close ones.

Conversely, Hawthorn won a close one in a classic encounter last week. No way am I comparing the Bombers to the Tiges but winning a close one...

So the Cats won’t want it to be close in my view. Turn of the tables. In the old days Cats would win the close ones against us. Just not the same gritty team anymore

I dont think the Cats will be spooked by losing a close one last week. If anything, it should spur them on to believe they can compete with the best in the comp. Which is no good if you are not in the 8 come the end of the H&A rounds.

I think the Cats got themselves up emotionally for the contest last week, wanting to flex their muscle against the premiership favorites and show the Cats are a force and that Ric are beatable. Whereas we played the Bombers last week, in what was really a bruise free game which got a bit tight at the end.

Whilst there is a strong rivalry with Hawks and Cats, they are not looking for a scalp this week and as such the build up to this one might not be as high as last week.

How will the investment of emotional energy and falling just short last week play out this week?
Can they play to that level 2 weeks in a row - in which case they will belt us. Or are they just a bit down from last week, in which case the Hawks right in it.

Dont under-estimate the emotional energy spent by the Cats last week and what that means for this week.

 

[JohnZ]

I forgot Geelong were 1st in the moral victories ladder

You dominated us last week, according to Chris Scott. Our +17 I50’s were an aberration.

Hawthorn will win by 60+ this week and Geelong won’t be able to finish in the top 9 unfortunately

I never said wed finish the minor premier, only the actual one.

You had +17 I50s, but so do a lot of teams. Look at where our opposition takes their shots at goal from and their scores per I50. Were the league leaders for both

Nice tip but geelong will win and win well. Afterall, we just came within a kick of the favourite for the flag, and the hawks are a mile off

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

but they never seem to smash teams.

 

[JohnZ]

Reakon Geelong are a good side and should win... but they never seem to smash teams so if Hawks are around the mark in the last quarter could easily snatch it. Can't wait.

None of these are smashings, they were all in it to the last Q.

 

[Luv_our_club]

The Cat's team looks so good on paper, especially with Stewart back in.

You need to turn the page to read all of the Cat's midfield.

 

[Off The Couch]

The problem with stats Bardo State is that they and game plans seem to go out the window in these games.

I’ve been surprised that some of the usual up and about, in your face, cat posters haven’t been their chippy selves in this thread. I doubt that will be the case come Saturday evening

 

[Mningasimisonda]

I feel like our forwardline is a bit light on. Lots of skill, but Narkle is the only fast rover type and maybe Parfitt. Not the crazy rover squad we had against Sydney where Scott stacked all the fast first and second year players down there. Will need Menzel and Menegola to kick a few, unless the idea is to have enough marking types to let Hawkins off the leash.

 

[Mningasimisonda]

The Cat's team looks so good on paper, especially with Stewart back in.

You need to turn the page to read all of the Cat's midfield.

We're close to full strength now. Only players I'd expect back in off the injury list this year are Bews and maybe Esava if he is right in time.

I doubt Harry, McCarthy or Cockatoo will come back in at this stage of the season.

 

[Tiger71]

It will be another nail biter. Always look forward to this game. Another huge test for the Hawks to see where they’re at. If the Cats play like they did against Richmond we could be in trouble particularly still without McEvoy and Sicily.

Doubt it mate. Scott completely forgot his fully stacked and healthy midfield came up against our 2 guns in cotchin and martin and due to having 4 mids out injured, you had dangerfield on a 17 gamer in Higgens and Selwood matched up on 3 gamer Baker and they still could not get the job done.

Hawks by 48

 

[Xtreme]

Hawks by 48

I wish

Sadly I reckon the Cats will get the job done by 166 points!

 

[00VicWard001]

Both teams have very similar records. Let's look at this by the numbers.

Hawthorn: 12 wins, 7 losses, 121%, 1738 points for (91 pts average), 1432 points against (75 pts average)

Geelong: 11 wins, 8 losses, 119%, 1685 points for (89 pts average), 1418 points against (75 pts average)

So both teams tend to score and concede at about the same level this season. But they have two quite different ways of doing it. Hawthorn have been a team that has focused on territory while the cats have been focused on efficiency.

Inside 50s

Hawthorn average 10 more inside 50s than their opponent, second in the league. Geelong average 1 fewer inside 50 than their opponent, 11th in the league with Sydney the only other finals chance below them. Hawthorn are a repeat entries tea, that plays from the front and zones aggressively to force opposition kicks down the line to the wing and cut out diagonal balls through the corridor. In fact, Hawthorn average the fewest Rebound 50s compared to their opposition in the competition. Geelong by contrast are a rebounding team, that plays from the back. The Swans are at the extreme end of this but Geelong would be next in line of the finals contenders. Both teams are set up to counter and exploit the others' style. Hawthorn risks space out the back and efficient opposition scoring to lock the ball into their 50. The cats back themselves to prevent scoring from stoppages in their defensive 50 and efficiently score on the break from fast corridor movement.

Disposal

There isn't a massive gap between the teams in terms of how many disposals they rack up. The Cats are 4th and the Hawks 8th in this area. Where they do vary is the type of disposal. Geelong are second in the league for handball differential (+20 per game over the opposition). By contrast, Hawthorn are 11th, averaging about 4 fewer handballs than their opposition. With kicking, the trend is reversed with Hawthorn 3rd in the league (+14 per game) and Geelong 10th (+1 per game).

Marking

So does this mean that Hawthorn is playing the typical Clarkson 'keepings off' game style? Actually, no! Those kicks typically aren't translating into marks. For marks, Hawthorn are 5th and the Cats 7th. If you want to know which team is using that old Clarkson style, look to West Coast, who are top of kicking and marking differentials. So Hawthorns kick dominance is typically coming from quick kicks from clearances or kicks to contests (which the Hawks don't plan on marking). This reflects back to the inside 50s difference. Hawthorn this year is playing a territory game, while the cats are focused on quality of ball movement, sacrificing pure territory. The Cats' kicks are more likely to end up in marks. Their inside 50s are more likely to end up in goals. They just get fewer of them.

Tackles

The biggest disparity between the two teams is their tackle counts. The Hawks are second in the league at +7 per game, while the Cats are all the way down at 16th with -6 tackles per game compared to their opposition. This is the exclamation point on the difference between the two styles. Hawthorn plan to create stoppages while the Cats plan to create more free flowing ball movement. Geelong don't commit to the man with the ball as much outside their defensive 50 so they can have numbers elsewhere in anticipation of the kick forward or the turnover.

So who wins, then?

I dunno. My gut says the Cats will have the edge with the form of players like Kelly, Hawkins and Duncan. The Hawks won't own the ruck contests as much as they did in the first match due to McEvoy's absence. My head says that both teams have been about as effective and consistent as each other with both having decent, but not fantastic recent form. Geelong have made 5 changes to the named lineup which can have a destabilising effect. Hawthorn's engine room (Mitchell, O'Meara, Shiels and now Worpel) are all in fantastic form.

Cats by 7

Impressive post. Thank you for doing that.

 

[Hinkley29]

Chris Scott is a ******* embarrassment the way he carries on in the box.

I guess he should starting punching holes in walls of the coaches box...or abusing an umpire at an Under 9's game...that wouldn't be embarrassing at all

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Doubt it mate. Scott completely forgot his fully stacked and healthy midfield came up against our 2 guns in cotchin and martin and due to having 4 mids out injured, you had dangerfield on a 17 gamer in Higgens and Selwood matched up on 3 gamer Baker and they still could not get the job done.

Hawks by 48

I don't think I've ever read something so moronic in my entire life!

Hawks by 57.

 

[Falco131415]

I guess he should starting punching holes in walls of the coaches box...or abusing an umpire at an Under 9's game...that wouldn't be embarrassing at all

Or win another 3 flags

 

[Luv_our_club]

We're close to full strength now. Only players I'd expect back in off the injury list this year are Bews and maybe Esava if he is right in time.

I doubt Harry, McCarthy or Cockatoo will come back in at this stage of the season.

What do you see when you look at the Hawks team on paper?

 

[Gavin Excell]

Not sure why some Hawk posters are negative about this game. Hawks season been far more reliable than Geelongs who are up and down like a yo yo