Prediction Q: If you start 0-2, is it time to look to the future?

[Freomaniac]

Talking about today, 2018. It doesn't work anymore. **** the sooner you get rid of Lyon the sooner you can start climbing the ladder.

the irony of this post.

Lyon has never done a rebuild. Never had the chance. You want to sack him 2 years into a rebuild

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Out of these teams only West Coast made the finals last year. Most of the time their is only 2-3 changes in the top 8 from the previous year.

Out of the team 0-1 I only see Melbourne, West Coast, and Westen Bulldogs as realistic changes of making the 8. If Melbourne lose they don't deserve to play finals. The game between the Dogs and Eagles will be interesting. Eagles lose they will show again that they can't win away and Dogs they will show they can't win at home.

For those of us at Manuka on Sunday, you dont really need to stick a fork in the Bulldogs to know they're pretty much done. They do have talent but I cant see a quick turnaround.Our mids were jogging free in the centre of the ground after we'd turned the ball over in our back 50. Melbourne and WC the 2 that might turn it around in my view. Demons almost certainly

 

[eastfreo75]

For those of us at Manuka on Sunday, you dont really need to stick a fork in the Bulldogs to know they're pretty much done. They do have talent but I cant see a quick turnaround.Our mids were jogging free in the centre of the ground after we'd turned the ball over in our back 50. Melbourne and WC the 2 that might turn it around in my view. Demons almost certainly

Giants are pretty pretty good. I agree that they a bit over the place but they do have talent to beat teams.

West Coast are a solid team with Kennedy and Nick Nat and if their cards fall their way, they could make the bottom half of the eight.

These 50/50 games can make or break a team.

Anyway, you have have a valid point of view but you must understand that your team is extremely talented and only injuries will prevent the Giants from making the grand final.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Do lol
Bring this up last year
Now the media is running with it this year.

3 years behind me guys (I noticed it in 2015, only went public on the crows board in 2016 and put my reputation on the line last year writing everyone off after rd 2 on the main board where more than rucci would read it)

But they’re missing my Carlton stat in the op.
They did make it.
Just didn’t earn it....

 

[RobbieGray17]

Do lol
Bring this up last year
Now the media is running with it this year.

3 years behind me guys (I noticed it in 2015, only went public on the crows board in 2016 and put my reputation on the line last year writing everyone off after rd 2 on the main board where more than rucci would read it)

But they’re missing my Carlton stat in the op.
They did make it.
Just didn’t earn it....

I think if you analyze every season there are at least 6-7 teams that aren't ready for finals. Of those 7 teams there is a reasonable chance that at least half of those will lose the first two games. The top 4 teams won't likely lose two matches in a row first up unless they are pitted against other top 4 teams or like Sydney have injuries. I think your theory is a general one, but statistically it has been rare that a team has gone on to make the finals from 0-2.

 

[Mr.X]

the average sides who are 0-2 won't make finals.

Meaning if all the teams tipped to miss finals are 0-2, realistically, they won't make finals.
They can use the season to continue developing and trialing players, adjusting game plans etc ..

 

[SilentHunter_]

I mean no club would ever just admit defeat of a whole season after two rounds. But statistically speaking starting 0-2 and your finals chances are virtually zilch.

 

[PVF]

I mean no club would ever just admit defeat of a whole season after two rounds. But statistically speaking starting 0-2 and your finals chances are virtually zilch.

Sydney must love taking the piss then.

96: 0-2 = Grand Final
97: 0-2 = Finals
99: 0-3 and were 1-4 = Finals
03: did win the first game but were 1-3 = Finals
06: 0-2 and were 1-3 = Grand Final
14: 0-2 and were 1-3 = Grand Final
17: 0-6 = Finals

 

[MollyBana]

Not at all. Depends who youre playjng obviously
At 1-1 I already know my saints are gone for the year and most likely decade.
When you nearly lose to #2 wooden spoon favourite and then lose by 10 goals to #1 wooden spoon favourite the next week with a full list to choose from you KNOW things are done.

 

[hk89]

Looks like this year could be even closer than last year. After 2 rounds last year we had 8 undefeated teams. The most we'll have after 2 rounds this year is 4. Partly down to how the fixture pans out, but still, looking at the margins and who has played who, the competition looks awfully close. Not really clear who you could definitely rule out of finals at this stage, perhaps up to 12 teams are realistic chances, and another couple of smokies after that.

 

[mick500]

History apparently says “yes” with only Sydney making the finals in the last 20 yrs or so from a 0-2 start . Personally I would like to think my team could come back from zero and 2 if I were coach or a senior figure at the club. Realistically it’s * all to make up over a 22 round season.

 

[RUNVS]

Looks like this year could be even closer than last year. After 2 rounds last year we had 8 undefeated teams. The most we'll have after 2 rounds this year is 4. Partly down to how the fixture pans out, but still, looking at the margins and who has played who, the competition looks awfully close. Not really clear who you could definitely rule out of finals at this stage, perhaps up to 12 teams are realistic chances, and another couple of smokies after that.

I think the years where the drafts were compromised because of Gold Coast and then GWS entering have finally been dispelled as those drafts slowed down many teams ability to improve. Still, even using that argument the competition was not this close in the era before the Suns, so I don't entirely know why it is much closer these days.

 

[hk89]

I think the years where the drafts were compromised because of Gold Coast and then GWS entering have finally been dispelled as those drafts slowed down many teams ability to improve. Still, even using that argument the competition was not this close in the era before the Suns, so I don't entirely know why it is much closer these days.

Equalisation policies have a lot to do with it, but there has always been cycles of close years and uneven years. In 2008 before GWS and GC existed, the competition was fairly lopsided. Geelong were way out in front, 8 wins ahead of 4th spot, and even Hawthorn in second spot was a full 4 wins ahead of fourth spot that year. You go back to say 2004 and there was only 2 wins between 1st and 4th. The giant logjam from 1st all the way down to 10th we saw last year is pretty new though, I don't remember a season like that before, and this one could be much the same given the start so far.

I think that is the result of the increasing raft of equalisation policies. For example the formalised fixture weighting rules have only been around since 2014 I think, and I reckon we've definitely seen the ladder compress a little more than usual due to gifting easier fixtures to lower teams. An objective look at who (and where) Essendon got their wins from makes it hard not to conclude the fixture equalisation gave them a finals spot for example. Given Tigers were one loss away from 6th spot and missing top 4 after a being in a lower fixture bracket, it is not hard to imagine the weighted fixture policy may have even effected the flag result.

National draft compromises didn't have a huge impact on the lower ranked non-expansion clubs (if you look at the players they missed out on compared to who they picked up with their slightly later picks). Obviously the impact on GWS has come to fruition which adds 1 more team to the 'competitive' mix. The AFL would be pretty happy with how things are going I would imagine, especially with GWS and GC currently sitting 1&2 on the ladder. Mission accomplished as far as the AFL are concerned (hard to see GC maintaining that position though, but doing a good job of finding reasons for Lynch to stay so far).

 

[SilentHunter_]

Sydney must love taking the piss then.

96: 0-2 = Grand Final
97: 0-2 = Finals
99: 0-3 and were 1-4 = Finals
03: did win the first game but were 1-3 = Finals
06: 0-2 and were 1-3 = Grand Final
14: 0-2 and were 1-3 = Grand Final
17: 0-6 = Finals

Except us of course.

 

[TeeJay Blue]

How much longer do us young Carlton supporters have to 'look to the future' for? Have started 0-2 for 6 consecutive years.

It's already painful enough when people rule your team out of contention before the season even begins. It's one year wasted and another year of my life gone.

My patience is going to wear thin and I'm not getting any younger.

 

[Ando727]

How much longer do us young Carlton supporters have to 'look to the future' for? Have started 0-2 for 6 consecutive years.

It's already painful enough when people rule your team out of contention before the season even begins. It's one year wasted and another year of my life gone.

My patience is going to wear thin and I'm not getting any younger.

lol, you don't know the first thing about footy-suffering. Try being a Melbourne supporter over the past 40 years...

 

[Mr.X]

for the poorer sides yes.

looks like the bottom 4 for 2018 is already set, those sides won't make the 8,and need to start planning for the future

 

[Power Raid]

I can’t see any of the side 0-2 making the 8

 

[10571z]

I can’t see any of the side 0-2 making the 8

Pies in a prelimary final after 0-2

 

[NoobPie]

for the poorer sides yes.

looks like the bottom 4 for 2018 is already set, those sides won't make the 8,and need to start planning for the future

I can’t see any of the side 0-2 making the 8

Nice bump this one...

 

[Power Raid]

Pies in a prelimary final after 0-2

Ouch

 

[Freomaniac]

well done

 

[Freomaniac]

the average sides who are 0-2 won't make finals.

Meaning if all the teams tipped to miss finals are 0-2, realistically, they won't make finals.
They can use the season to continue developing and trialing players, adjusting game plans etc ..

Geelong were 0-3 in 2004 and finished wit 15 wins and defeats and a prelim

 

[Billy ray]

Probably this thread done now

 

[DrEvil_]

Yes, time to look to the GF.