Did We Write Off Hawthorn Too Soon?

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May 13, 2008
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Does a top 6 draw involve playing more games than everyone else?

It will be interesting to see who the Hawks get twice. Cats seem to be a lock every year and Sydney lately as well. This year the Hawks only got the Pies, Demons, West Coast, GWS and Tigers once so you would assume 1 or 2 or even 3 of those.

The easy draw this year thing is funny when you consider the Hawks reward for a s**t year was to play the Lions twice - that went well :rolleyes:

Hawks had the Cats 2-0, Swans 1-1, Lions 0-2, Saints 2-0 and Essendon 2-0 twice this year.

Edit: The answer to the question is yes - there is some formula
 

falcons2

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It will be interesting to see who the Hawks get twice. Cats seem to be a lock every year and Sydney lately as well. This year the Hawks only got the Pies, Demons, West Coast, GWS and Tigers once so you would assume 1 or 2 or even 3 of those.

The easy draw this year thing is funny when you consider the Hawks reward for a s**t year was to play the Lions twice - that went well :rolleyes:

Hawks had the Cats 2-0, Swans 1-1, Lions 0-2, Saints 2-0 and Essendon 2-0 twice this year.

Edit: The answer to the question is yes - there is some formula
Expect the hawks to get a 2-2-1 draw in 2019.
 

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Hawk Dork

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Expect the hawks to get a 2-2-1 draw in 2019.
If the AFL wants to play silly buggers, they just give you one game in WA V WCE and 1 game in NSW V GWS,so there's less chance of levelling the ledger, then give you lots of 5 day breaks, leading into successions of good back to back teams.
Its not like they dont already have those draws on file from previous years.

I would be surprised if they dont workshop the draws to manufacture likely outcomes of win loss potentials
 
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If the AFL wants to play silly buggers, they just give you one game in WA V WCE and 1 game in NSW V GWS,so there's less chance of levelling the ledger, then give you lots of 5 day breaks, leading into successions of good back to back teams.
Its not like they dont already have those draws on file from previous years.

I would be surprised if they dont workshop the draws to manufacture likely outcomes of win loss potentials
Certainly under the Demetriou reign they used the fixture to punish clubs who may have been outspoken/critical of City Hall the season before
 

Benny78

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Weaker version of Geelong. Promising youth, top 2 coach, bit less star players.

With the state and lists of the other clubs I can't see them not competing next year.
 
Given the appearance of their twos in todays VFL Grand Final can we conclude that Hawks have either quality youth or at least good depth?
#noyouf
 

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hk89

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Given the appearance of their twos in todays VFL Grand Final can we conclude that Hawks have either quality youth or at least good depth?

Probably a little bit of both, but perhaps the wrong type of depth for what we need in the seniors right now. Our only forward depth is Lewis, and as a first year KPF, he's not expected to be stepping up quickly (especially given how late he was in the draft, and its super rare to get a gun forward anywhere near that late).
We'd be bitterly disappointed in not being able to grab Lynch.

We've got potential tall KPD depth, but those are guys that have had chances at AFL level and haven't looked overly impressive at that level. Namely Brand and now O'Brien who they are playing predominantly back, despite his move up forward in today's game. If Brand and O'Brien could translate the form we saw in the last few weeks in the backline at Box Hill into the AFL then we'd not be worried about a succession plan for Frawley, but I don't think many Hawks fans are overly optimistic on that front. I think Brand is probably still best 22 in the AFL side right now against sides with two genuine tall forwards and part of not playing in recent games was as much about matchups as anything.

Lots of young smaller player depth, especially in the goal kicking department (majority of our scoring today from young kids), but not sure any of the guys in that area have the pressure side of the game at a high enough level to replace Poppy, but those who watch BH more closely might have a different opinion.

Cousins is probably our best young mid not getting a senior game, but rumours going that we might lose him. I assume there is something the senior match committee doesn't like about him, as he was pulling 30+ possessions regularly in the VFL, and copping a tag some weeks, but when we lost O'Meara we went with a non-mid for his replacement. Played a couple of games earlier in the year and was ok when you consider his experience level, but didn't get another look in. Worpel was probably just as bad in his earlier senior games, before returning later with arguably less impressive BH form than what Cousins was showing, and then played quite well in his second run of AFL games. Cousins may well be wondering what he needs to do get a second crack at it, so might be vulnerable to poaching.

O'Rourke isn't really youth anymore, and is probably even money chance to be delisted, but I'm hoping he gets another contract and chance to prove himself again now that he's shown he can play a few games in a row without pinging his hammy. Not blowing anyone away, but with such little continuity in the past I still think he's worth rolling the dice on to see if a big chunk of consecutive games can bring out the traits people saw when he went at #2. Not many Hawk fans seem to agree with this assessment though and reckon he's just one of the dud early picks recruiters got wrong, and will never be more than a fairly ordinary player. Certainly hasn't shown enough to prove them wrong yet.

Jiath looks to have massive potential, but probably one of the more raw kids in our VFL side. Not 100% sure on his best position right now, as he has the athleticism to play a number of roles.

Pittonet was a beast today , and has been for a while in the VFL. His last AFL game wasn't spectacular, but I'm pretty comfortable with him as Ruck depth , and at 22 is pretty young for a developing ruck. Casey didn't have much to oppose him, so today is probably somewhat of an outlier, but seems to have been very good all year.

Our main issue I think is that it is hard to look at any of the BH players that played today, and say "definite super star in the making" and with no early picks for years we are probably 2-3 elite level players light on. If we can trade 2 into the club this year and next, I think at the least we'll have some very handy role players step up from the VFL, and those type are still crucial to any successful team. Most people seem to over estimate the number of A graders you need to win a flag. I think with the kids coming through we'll at least have a decent bottom 6. On the other hand, few picked Sicily rising to the level he's at now when he was playing all his footy in the VFL, so conceivable a few of this batch can step up to be more than just solid role players.
 
Weaker version of Geelong. Promising youth, top 2 coach, bit less star players.

With the state and lists of the other clubs I can't see them not competing next year.
Ahh Benny, such a clever disguise. No one will ever know you’re a Geelong supporter.
 

Tbone McGraw

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Probably a little bit of both, but perhaps the wrong type of depth for what we need in the seniors right now. Our only forward depth is Lewis, and as a first year KPF, he's not expected to be stepping up quickly (especially given how late he was in the draft, and its super rare to get a gun forward anywhere near that late).
We'd be bitterly disappointed in not being able to grab Lynch.

We've got potential tall KPD depth, but those are guys that have had chances at AFL level and haven't looked overly impressive at that level. Namely Brand and now O'Brien who they are playing predominantly back, despite his move up forward in today's game. If Brand and O'Brien could translate the form we saw in the last few weeks in the backline at Box Hill into the AFL then we'd not be worried about a succession plan for Frawley, but I don't think many Hawks fans are overly optimistic on that front. I think Brand is probably still best 22 in the AFL side right now against sides with two genuine tall forwards and part of not playing in recent games was as much about matchups as anything.

Lots of young smaller player depth, especially in the goal kicking department (majority of our scoring today from young kids), but not sure any of the guys in that area have the pressure side of the game at a high enough level to replace Poppy, but those who watch BH more closely might have a different opinion.

Cousins is probably our best young mid not getting a senior game, but rumours going that we might lose him. I assume there is something the senior match committee doesn't like about him, as he was pulling 30+ possessions regularly in the VFL, and copping a tag some weeks, but when we lost O'Meara we went with a non-mid for his replacement. Played a couple of games earlier in the year and was ok when you consider his experience level, but didn't get another look in. Worpel was probably just as bad in his earlier senior games, before returning later with arguably less impressive BH form than what Cousins was showing, and then played quite well in his second run of AFL games. Cousins may well be wondering what he needs to do get a second crack at it, so might be vulnerable to poaching.

O'Rourke isn't really youth anymore, and is probably even money chance to be delisted, but I'm hoping he gets another contract and chance to prove himself again now that he's shown he can play a few games in a row without pinging his hammy. Not blowing anyone away, but with such little continuity in the past I still think he's worth rolling the dice on to see if a big chunk of consecutive games can bring out the traits people saw when he went at #2. Not many Hawk fans seem to agree with this assessment though and reckon he's just one of the dud early picks recruiters got wrong, and will never be more than a fairly ordinary player. Certainly hasn't shown enough to prove them wrong yet.

Jiath looks to have massive potential, but probably one of the more raw kids in our VFL side. Not 100% sure on his best position right now, as he has the athleticism to play a number of roles.

Pittonet was a beast today , and has been for a while in the VFL. His last AFL game wasn't spectacular, but I'm pretty comfortable with him as Ruck depth , and at 22 is pretty young for a developing ruck. Casey didn't have much to oppose him, so today is probably somewhat of an outlier, but seems to have been very good all year.

Our main issue I think is that it is hard to look at any of the BH players that played today, and say "definite super star in the making" and with no early picks for years we are probably 2-3 elite level players light on. If we can trade 2 into the club this year and next, I think at the least we'll have some very handy role players step up from the VFL, and those type are still crucial to any successful team. Most people seem to over estimate the number of A graders you need to win a flag. I think with the kids coming through we'll at least have a decent bottom 6. On the other hand, few picked Sicily rising to the level he's at now when he was playing all his footy in the VFL, so conceivable a few of this batch can step up to be more than just solid role players.
Long post. Love your passion.

I think hawks biggest problem is lack of pace.
 
Apr 22, 2007
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Probably a little bit of both, but perhaps the wrong type of depth for what we need in the seniors right now. Our only forward depth is Lewis, and as a first year KPF, he's not expected to be stepping up quickly (especially given how late he was in the draft, and its super rare to get a gun forward anywhere near that late).
We'd be bitterly disappointed in not being able to grab Lynch.

We've got potential tall KPD depth, but those are guys that have had chances at AFL level and haven't looked overly impressive at that level. Namely Brand and now O'Brien who they are playing predominantly back, despite his move up forward in today's game. If Brand and O'Brien could translate the form we saw in the last few weeks in the backline at Box Hill into the AFL then we'd not be worried about a succession plan for Frawley, but I don't think many Hawks fans are overly optimistic on that front. I think Brand is probably still best 22 in the AFL side right now against sides with two genuine tall forwards and part of not playing in recent games was as much about matchups as anything.

Lots of young smaller player depth, especially in the goal kicking department (majority of our scoring today from young kids), but not sure any of the guys in that area have the pressure side of the game at a high enough level to replace Poppy, but those who watch BH more closely might have a different opinion.

Cousins is probably our best young mid not getting a senior game, but rumours going that we might lose him. I assume there is something the senior match committee doesn't like about him, as he was pulling 30+ possessions regularly in the VFL, and copping a tag some weeks, but when we lost O'Meara we went with a non-mid for his replacement. Played a couple of games earlier in the year and was ok when you consider his experience level, but didn't get another look in. Worpel was probably just as bad in his earlier senior games, before returning later with arguably less impressive BH form than what Cousins was showing, and then played quite well in his second run of AFL games. Cousins may well be wondering what he needs to do get a second crack at it, so might be vulnerable to poaching.

O'Rourke isn't really youth anymore, and is probably even money chance to be delisted, but I'm hoping he gets another contract and chance to prove himself again now that he's shown he can play a few games in a row without pinging his hammy. Not blowing anyone away, but with such little continuity in the past I still think he's worth rolling the dice on to see if a big chunk of consecutive games can bring out the traits people saw when he went at #2. Not many Hawk fans seem to agree with this assessment though and reckon he's just one of the dud early picks recruiters got wrong, and will never be more than a fairly ordinary player. Certainly hasn't shown enough to prove them wrong yet.

Jiath looks to have massive potential, but probably one of the more raw kids in our VFL side. Not 100% sure on his best position right now, as he has the athleticism to play a number of roles.

Pittonet was a beast today , and has been for a while in the VFL. His last AFL game wasn't spectacular, but I'm pretty comfortable with him as Ruck depth , and at 22 is pretty young for a developing ruck. Casey didn't have much to oppose him, so today is probably somewhat of an outlier, but seems to have been very good all year.

Our main issue I think is that it is hard to look at any of the BH players that played today, and say "definite super star in the making" and with no early picks for years we are probably 2-3 elite level players light on. If we can trade 2 into the club this year and next, I think at the least we'll have some very handy role players step up from the VFL, and those type are still crucial to any successful team. Most people seem to over estimate the number of A graders you need to win a flag. I think with the kids coming through we'll at least have a decent bottom 6. On the other hand, few picked Sicily rising to the level he's at now when he was playing all his footy in the VFL, so conceivable a few of this batch can step up to be more than just solid role players.
O'Brien has been promising for a while now. Seems to bob up every now and again but then go missing for periods of time.

Is he worth persisting with?
 
Box hill this season were struggling mid season. We have turned it around to win 9 out of the last 10 games. They have that never say die attitude and winning culture. Thats what is really important for the Hawthorn kids. They do their appenticeship there learning to play the hawthorn way
 

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Hawthorn have a good young list but things can still go wrong there. They did well with injuries but I feel if they don't get the same luck and some of their older players falter next season they could slide. No doubt they still have some work to do to get up to the top but aren't too far off.
 

Hawk Dork

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Hawthorn have a good young list but things can still go wrong there. They did well with injuries but I feel if they don't get the same luck and some of their older players falter next season they could slide. No doubt they still have some work to do to get up to the top but aren't too far off.
Sicily was out for 7 weeks with a broken hand
Big boy was out for 6 with a broken cheek bone
Burger and Poppy did hammys
Mitchell is having shoulder surgery
Cyril redid his knee and retired

Thats some serious injuries to key players
lots of minorish ones along the way too
 

Tbone McGraw

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Hawks lost a lot once Cyril retired.

I think they still let Roughy go, but then they go all in this trade period.
 

matey

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O'Brien has been promising for a while now. Seems to bob up every now and again but then go missing for periods of time.

Is he worth persisting with?

No. He lacks footy smarts and composure ..... regularly turns it over. Great leap but does not have good hands. Then when he does have a bad day you cant throw him elsewhere as he is not versatile. Extremely disappointed with his year and time to give others an opportunity.
 

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