Traded 2018 Live Trade: Carlton trade #4 (2019) to Adelaide for #19 (2018) and #9 (2019)

[Crow till I die]

You keep moving the goal posts. You started by asking me about wins, and then talked about Bolton’s era, so that’s the what and when being dealt with here. Carlton’s 2 win season is a greater deviation from their H&A average over this period than Adelaide’s 12 win season is from theirs, which makes Carlton’s 2 win season the greater statistical outlier of the two over this 3 season period. This is a calculatable fact. I don’t know what else to say. My point of course, is to say that it’s not what happened that determines the outlier here, but what happens next.

I do wanna note one funny part of your “since 2013” timeframe switch, which was that out of the numbers you provided, finishing first in 2017 was the outlier, not finishing 12th in 2018. Gave me a chuckle.

So you are totally discounting the 2 x semi final appearances in 2015 & 2016 before the GF appearance in 2017???you have lost me and ai am sure most others on that.

Here is Brendan Bolton's win/loss record as a coach
https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/cp-brendon-bolton--101
it is 28.2% and 5 of his 20 wins were whilst coaching Hawthorn mind you.
He has taken Carlton in 2016 - 14th, then 2017 - 16th and then 2018 - 18th

Here is Don Pyke's win / loss record as a coach
https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/cp-don-pyke--107
64.8 % and all games coached were at Adelaide and both he and Bolton took over in 2016 so are eminently comparable
He has presided over a semi final appearance in 2016, a grand final appearance in 2017 and 12 in 2018 (caveat being in 2018 the team was smashed with injury and had internal problems to deal with).

So in no way whatsoever is carltons 2018 last place finish a bigger deviation / outlier than the crows going from GF to 12th when looking at the preceding seasons leading to that point. Ladder position much more than wins and losses are they key here

 

[ad victoriam]

This 'kid' is 25 years old. He's now a mature footballer about to enter his sixth season and should be in his prime.

Not that the Rising Star means squat but he had an advantage over the rest of the field due to having an extra pre-season, coming into the AFL as a top draft pick with the conditioning of 2nd year player.

This Kid has only played 61 games due to different injuries, This Kid has proven several times that he can win a game of football.
The same kid that manages to make the West Adelaide SANFL side and Came close to best on Ground in there Grand final loss at 17years old. He played 14 games including 3 finals. that year.
Write him off if you want, however, he will make a difference to the Crows side, especially in the close games.

 

[THE_GUN]

Sorry guys but a 25 year old player that has been riddled with injuries and only played 60 games cannot be considered top 20 in the league

Only 10 brownlow votes
Has never won a B & F
His best year was 2017 and didnt come top 5 in the B & F

Good player but a fair way off top 20

 

[Monkey King]

So in no way whatsoever is carltons 2018 last place finish a bigger deviation / outlier than the crows going from GF to 12th when looking at the preceding seasons leading to that point. Ladder position much more than wins and losses are they key here

You set the context; you asked about wins, you talked about Bolton’s 3 seasons in charge and that’s what I’ve been working off. You can argue “no way whatsoever” til you’re red in the face, but the numbers say nah-ah ...

Adelaide 2016-2018 - total H&A wins = 43, a mean of 14.34 and standard deviation of 2.08
Adelaides 2018 season - total H&A wins = 12, which equates to a deviation from the mean of 1.125 SD’s

Carlton 2016-2018 - total H&A wins = 15, a mean of 5 and standard deviation of 2.65
Carlton’s 2018 season - total H&A wins = 2, which equates to a deviation from the mean of 1.134 SD’s

Sorry, but these are just the facts. When assessing which club’s 2018 H&A performance deviates further from their 2016-2018 H&A performance, it is slightly, but unequivocally, Carlton’s.

I’m not really interested in your shuffling the parameters; it’s not only disingenuous, but ranking is too heavily influenced by the performances of other teams playing unrelated games. For example, the Crows 12 wins in 2018 would have had them on the cusp of the top 8 in any of the other years. The ordinal data is apples and oranges.

Fair call on asking why only H&A results. And again, it’s because that’s what you’ve been talking about up to this point. When you say you finished 1st, you’re sure as hell not talking finals here. Stop moving the goal posts. But secondly, all we’ve got for the Crows and Carlton in 2018 are H&A results, so that’s what I’ve compared.

 

[Ambrosia]

The interesting part of that trade is that Adelaide knocked back St Kilda's offer even though it included an extra pick #34
Lets see if the crows made the right call

Think the Saints will surprise a few next year. Their age/experience profile is that of a side that should be pushing for the 8 and Ratten is a massive inclusion.

 

[Crow till I die]

You set the context; you asked about wins, you talked about Bolton’s 3 seasons in charge and that’s what I’ve been working off. You can argue “no way whatsoever” til you’re red in the face, but the numbers say nah-ah ...

Adelaide 2016-2018 - total H&A wins = 43, a mean of 14.34 and standard deviation of 2.08
Adelaides 2018 season - total H&A wins = 12, which equates to a deviation from the mean of 1.125 SD’s

Carlton 2016-2018 - total H&A wins = 15, a mean of 5 and standard deviation of 2.65
Carlton’s 2018 season - total H&A wins = 2, which equates to a deviation from the mean of 1.134 SD’s

Sorry, but these are just the facts. When assessing which club’s 2018 H&A performance deviates further from their 2016-2018 H&A performance, it is slightly, but unequivocally, Carlton’s.

I’m not really interested in your shuffling the parameters; it’s not only disingenuous, but ranking is too heavily influenced by the performances of other teams playing unrelated games. For example, the Crows 12 wins in 2018 would have had them on the cusp of the top 8 in any of the other years. The ordinal data is apples and oranges.

Fair call on asking why only H&A results. And again, it’s because that’s what you’ve been talking about up to this point. When you say you finished 1st, you’re sure as hell not talking finals here. Stop moving the goal posts. But secondly, all we’ve got for the Crows and Carlton in 2018 are H&A results, so that’s what I’ve compared.

You need to see the woods from the trees and have overcomplicated it for yourself. Carlton have trended downwards for a number of seasons and the crows have trended up with one outlier year last year. You say ladder position is influenced by other teams playing unrelated games..or another way to look at it is to say the strength of a competition changes year on year and ladder position is the true reflection of where a team is at rather than pure wins. By way of example is the crows finished top in 2017 with fewer wins than in most years but due to the eveness of the comp it was enough to finish top. So i say ladder position is more relevant and then final finishing positions after finals has to be considered..not the number of wins

Carlton may well improve their win tally and overall % this year but it is very unlikely to save them from a bottom 2-3 finish..ie 18th, 17th or 16th in my opinion

 

[DangerSloane]

In all respect Brad Crouch is a very good player but you play without him quite often

With all due respect Sam Docherty is a very good player but you play without him quite often.

 

[Ambrosia]

Carlton 2016-2018 - total H&A wins = 15, a mean of 5 and standard deviation of 2.65
Carlton’s 2018 season - total H&A wins = 2, which equates to a deviation from the mean of 1.134 SD’s

Have to question the relevance of Carlton 2016 and 2017 seasons to 2019. There wins were had playing an extremely defensive game plan and big performances from from Gibbs (gone), Kruezer (cooked), Murphy (cooked), Docherty (injured), Simpson (aging) and Cripps (freak).

2019 is a huge unknown for Carlton the pieces could come together or it could just as easily fall apart. Regardless of the outcome good or bad I don't see 2016 and 2017 as hugely relevant given the massive turnover of Carlton's list.

 

[Robertio]

With all due respect Sam Docherty is a very good player but you play without him quite often.

Difference is Sam has put a number of good seasons behind him.

 

[DangerSloane]

Difference is Sam has put a number of good seasons behind him.

2 and a half?
Crouch has played 1 and a half good seasons. So presuming he plays a good season this year they'll be on par.
Its really not that much different. Both are great players who have missed a lot of time through injury.

There is some serious underrating of Crouch here.
He is a better player than his brother when fit, comfortably.

 

[Robertio]

2 and a half?
Crouch has played 1 and a half good seasons. So presuming he plays a good season this year they'll be on par.
Its really not that much different. Both are great players who have missed a lot of time through injury.

There is some serious underrating of Crouch here.
He is a better player than his brother when fit, comfortably.

If you had read my post you would see that i wasn't underating Crouch and i agree with your last line.

 

[DangerSloane]

If you had read my post you would see that i wasn't underating Crouch and i agree with your last line.

Sorry that was more of a side comment about the thread than a specific reply to yourself.

 

[La Dispute]

Crouch is a good player, but he’s not in the elite bracket, which is what the discussion centred on. It doesn’t mean he’s no good, or underrated, it means opposition supporters don’t share the enthusiasm Adelaide supporters have for him, which I would have thought is obvious.

He undoubtably had a good finals series the year Adelaide made the Grand Final, was probably their best player (although his brother was excellent as well), but until he’s had a season mirroring that kind of form he’s in the next tier. I’d say he’s at a similar level to Jack Viney or Ollie Wines, who are both gun players with some strong finals performance behind them. West Coast tagged Viney in the PF such was his performance in the SF. A big part of the reason B Crouch was so damaging in 2017 was due to the increased attention on Sloane and M Crouch, leaving him relatively unchecked.

Interesting to see how he backs up after a year out of the game.

 

[DangerSloane]

Crouch is a good player, but he’s not in the elite bracket, which is what the discussion centred on. It doesn’t mean he’s no good, or underrated, it means opposition supporters don’t share the enthusiasm Adelaide supporters have for him, which I would have thought is obvious.

He undoubtably had a good finals series the year Adelaide made the Grand Final, was probably their best player (although this brother was excellent as well), but until he’s had a season mirroring that kind of form he’s in the next tier. I’d say he’s at a similar level to Jack Viney or Ollie Wines, who are both gun players with some strong finals performance behind them. West Coast tagged Viney in the PF such was his performance in the SF. A big part of the reason B Crouch was so damaging in 2017 was due to the increased attention on Sloane and M Crouch, leaving him relatively unchecked.

Interesting to see how he backs up after a year out of the game.

Makes sense, however if you're going to call Sloane and M Crouch elite then B Crouch has to be in that category when fit.
Understandably its hard to put him in there when he cant stay on the park.
Hopefully he gets a decent run at it this year. He's looking very lean on the track so hopefully keeps the weight off and stays uninjured.

 

[Jeremias]

WTF does Crouch have to do with the Stocker trade?

I know it's easy to go off on tangents but surely there are other threads to discuss Crouch, whether he's better than his brother, and his value to the Crows?

 

[Monkey King]

You need to see the woods from the trees and have overcomplicated it for yourself. Carlton have trended downwards for a number of seasons and the crows have trended up with one outlier year last year.

This is just going around in circles.

Ranking order is not the only reasonable measure of a team’s performance. There are other meaningful things we can look at and yes, wins are one of them.

I do agree that ladder position can give a better indication of where a team was at relative to everyone else at the time, but you can’t take ordinal data in a chronological sequence of three and meaningfully claim the last entry to be an outlier. I’m sorry if you don’t understand this.

 

[La Dispute]

WTF does Crouch have to do with the Stocker trade?

I know it's easy to go off on tangents but surely there are other threads to discuss Crouch, whether he's better than his brother, and his value to the Crows?

A little actually.

Brad Crouch was brought up as a reason the Crows would improve, Crows and Carlton supporters discuss how big an impact his inclusion will have and subsequently his status as a player (elite - yay or nay) is talked about.

It’s a reasonable topic in the context of the thread.

 

[DangerSloane]

WTF does Crouch have to do with the Stocker trade?

I know it's easy to go off on tangents but surely there are other threads to discuss Crouch, whether he's better than his brother, and his value to the Crows?

This isnt the Stocker thread.
Its a thread about the trade, which involves 2019 draft picks.
2019 performances depend on injuries to key players like Sam Docherty and Brad Crouch.

If all there was to discuss was the trade it would be one post outlining what happened /endthread

I notice you didnt say that talking about Docherty was off topic?

 

[Jeremias]

Ha, indeed. Thought I was in the Stocker thread.

I guess that's what happens when you read the same s**t over and over and over in multiple threads.

Carry on.

 

[Monkey King]

Have to question the relevance of Carlton 2016 and 2017 seasons to 2019. There wins were had playing an extremely defensive game plan and big performances from from Gibbs (gone), Kruezer (cooked), Murphy (cooked), Docherty (injured), Simpson (aging) and Cripps (freak).

2019 is a huge unknown for Carlton the pieces could come together or it could just as easily fall apart. Regardless of the outcome good or bad I don't see 2016 and 2017 as hugely relevant given the massive turnover of Carlton's list.

I completely agree, but think it also applies to the Crows to some degree. Lever, Cameron, McGovern gone; Jacobs ‘cooked’, Betts in decline; Jenkins, Sloane, Walker, all 29-30yo. This is not the Crows of 2017. Which has been my point to the Crows poster, it’s what happens next that is going to put 2018 in context as much as what’s happened.

 

[DangerSloane]

I completely agree, but think it also applies to the Crows to some degree. Lever, Cameron, McGovern gone; Jacobs ‘cooked’, Betts in decline; Jenkins, Sloane, Walker, all 29-30yo. This is not the Crows of 2017. Which has been my point to the Crows poster, it’s what happens next that is going to put 2018 in context as much as what’s happened.

You're not wrong, but I think our 2018 was pretty much us 'falling apart'.

We had huge number of injuries to key players, distractions mentally and in the media (Camp) and still won 12 games.

 

[ad victoriam]

Sorry guys but a 25 year old player that has been riddled with injuries and only played 60 games cannot be considered top 20 in the league

Only 10 brownlow votes
Has never won a B & F
His best year was 2017 and didnt come top 5 in the B & F

Good player but a fair way off top 20

Suprised about that comment. Maybe you should look up Brad 2017 season as a 23-year-old and compare it to others as a 23-year-old, He was tracking OK. and would have improved on that barring injury in 2018.
He has the goods to be a top player the Question that should be asked is can he stay on the park.
Because ability wise he has the goods. Game consistency and he will improve,
Skill wise and football ability and he better than Sloane and M Crouch. Bigger body as well.

 

[Ambrosia]

I completely agree, but think it also applies to the Crows to some degree. Lever, Cameron, McGovern gone; Jacobs ‘cooked’, Betts in decline; Jenkins, Sloane, Walker, all 29-30yo. This is not the Crows of 2017. Which has been my point to the Crows poster, it’s what happens next that is going to put 2018 in context as much as what’s happened.

I'm leaning towards the Crows having one more year as a genuine top 6/8 side. Smith and Crouch are huge additions. Sloane has been a durable player who struggled with injury last year and is unlikely to do so this year. Theyve also got a home ground advantage, excellent coach, mature depth players.

Jacobs form has dropped off considerablely but he remains durable. I just see the dropp offs as more preventing them from challenging for the flag not from being a quality side next year.

 

[DangerSloane]

I'm leaning towards the Crows having one more year as a genuine top 6/8 side. Smith and Crouch are huge additions. Sloane has been a durable player who struggled with injury last year and is unlikely to do so this year. Theyve also got a home ground advantage, excellent coach, mature depth players.

Jacobs form has dropped off considerablely but he remains durable. I just see the dropp offs as more preventing them from challenging for the flag not from being a quality side next year.

I'd say Jacobs will be rested at times this year and O'brien given a bit more of a crack at it.
He can play O'Brien, but given Jacobs' durability and mostly decent form, he hasnt had a run really yet.

 

[Monkey King]

I'm leaning towards the Crows having one more year as a genuine top 6/8 side.

I’m not leaning either way. I think there’s questions to be asked of both clubs going into 2019, just different questions and more of them for Carlton. I could see the Crows getting back into the top 4 if most of their questions resolve themselves positively. If they don’t, then I wouldn’t be surprised to see them 8-12 either.