2019 planning

[Keystone agony]

I think that’s definitely what I will be looking at doing this year and approach the start of the year with a different strategy then last. Looking at batting deep in the backline and utilising the fwd rookies as that seems to be where some good value is. Current backline now with this news is Lloyd, Blakely, witherden, b smith, Williams and Collins.

With the new rules I can see an increase of 15pts each to their scores

Im probably thinking a similar 5. Already had 3 before the new rule. Im just deciding how much of an effect it will have im not sure guys like Lloyd will really play on that much from the goal square they arnt that quick or a long enough kick.... whereas i feel Zak Jones will be looking to take more kickout from him.

 

[Slysh]

At the moment having a look at my team with only running Dangerfield and Wingard as forward premiums. I don't mind how it looks but i almost never have the guts to pull the trigger on these sorts of things.

 

[samFFC]

Although Brodie Smith will probably take lots of those extra points from Laird

Can always hedge by having both!

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

The reason you need a midpricer to improve so much ia because your really comparing 2 midpricer vs Gun and Rookie. Rookies typically who started round 1 last year improved on average by 30.3.

So even if the gun holds their avg your having to find 2 midpricers who need to improve around 15 points each to be worth it.

The above list shows it isnt easy. However i didnt consider many of those guys. Berry, Mcluggage, Zac Fisher, Deboer, Westhoff, Walters, Dev Smith, Jaegar, Sicily were considered by me or picked

Not including guys like Parker, Cogs, Gawn ect

Maybe it depends whether you are talking about Rookies or Rookie Priced but last years Rookie Priced (<300K according to me) who started round 1, averaged overall about 23 above their price. Here is the list.

Admittedly, the bottom group weren't all that appealing and do massively skew the average.



There will be ongoing discussion about the best structure to take into the season but I don't think there is any correct answer. Whichever price structure you go with, you have to pick the correct players. That's all it comes down to I reckon.

Many advocate Guns and Rookies but if you started last year with most, or any, really, of the highest priced players of 2017 you were history. You would think that was fairly safe! Apart from Mitchell, the top group of '17 were:

Dangerfield
Ablett
Merrett
Adams
Zorko
Martin D
Duncan
Kelly J
Gibbs
Murphy... and on it goes to Sloane, Crouch etc.

I don't think any of them got near their previous year's average. All a disaster. Especially Crouch, Duncan and Kelly who missed many games in the first 8 or 10 rounds. I should know.

By the way, the (now) two-time Fantasy winner started with 8 Mid Pricers. On the other hand unlike my tale of woe; he had no injuries.

 

[DynamiteDons]

At the moment having a look at my team with only running Dangerfield and Wingard as forward premiums. I don't mind how it looks but i almost never have the guts to pull the trigger on these sorts of things.

What does your forward look like then? and have you gone another premium in the backline or Mid?

 

[Slysh]

What does your forward look like then? and have you gone another premium in the backline or Mid?

I have 4 rookies on field up forward and only 1 down back with Z.Williams being my D5

Have considered having Worpel as F3 and going down to some cheaper rookies to make my forward line look a little more respectable by am a bit scared off by the second year blues.

 

[DynamiteDons]

After yesterdays announcement, I'm unsure whether we are all just trigger happy and going early on getting rid of Blakely or whether we should look at another defender, these are my issues for picking other guys. I have Lloyd and Witho already.

Whitfield: susceptible to a tag and could have a few of those 60's games.
Simpson: age is an issue and if i select him, I'm worried that i have too many Carlton players in my team.
Laird: is the price really and will go down in points with the new rule.
Sicily: Hasn't ever played a full season, last three seasons are 14,19,20. His brain fades are an issue.
Hurn: too inconsistent as a fantasy player.

Like I am drawn back to still having Blakely. He's going to play Midfield, yes he's not played every game however, now has got his body right and can hopefully thrive in the midfield.

 

[Tex Danger]

Maybe it depends whether you are talking about Rookies or Rookie Priced but last years Rookie Priced (<300K according to me) who started round 1, averaged overall about 23 above their price. Here is the list.

Admittedly, the bottom group weren't all that appealing and do massively skew the average.

View attachment 606554

There will be ongoing discussion about the best structure to take into the season but I don't think there is any correct answer. Whichever price structure you go with, you have to pick the correct players. That's all it comes down to I reckon.

Many advocate Guns and Rookies but if you started last year with most, or any, really, of the highest priced players of 2017 you were history. You would think that was fairly safe! Apart from Mitchell, the top group of '17 were:

Dangerfield
Ablett
Merrett
Adams
Zorko
Martin D
Duncan
Kelly J
Gibbs
Murphy... and on it goes to Sloane, Crouch etc.

I don't think any of them got near their previous year's average. All a disaster. Especially Crouch, Duncan and Kelly who missed many games in the first 8 or 10 rounds. I should know.

By the way, the (now) two-time Fantasy winner started with 8 Mid Pricers. On the other hand unlike my tale of woe; he had no injuries.

thanks for sharing that list.

It kind of supports my gut feel that for a mid pricer that 25+ points upside is generally the cut off to picking them. ideally 30 predicted upside.

If we use 25 say, theres really only 15 rookies who did better, with a number around the same level. Of those 15 or so, many didn't play enough games early to make them reliable cash cows (a games played 1st 6 rounds and games played/missed pre bye would be a very interesting additional 2 column to that table). If we use 30 as the cut off theres only 11 better.

So given a mid pricer who has good job security (and then factoring in body reliability if thats the reason they are cheap) and will score 30+ (makes them very good selection) or 25 (good selection), the reliability of their place in the team assists in making that a good pick.

Also, interesting to note the prices of the players listed there. If we ignore Jacobs who was an injury affected player not a rookie, only 2 players im that 30+ bracket was priced over 200k, and only 2 more who beat that 25pt cut off (well 4, but 2 of those were on 25). Thats interesting because its often those high priced rookies we are debating with whether to pick them or the mid priced option. That lends more support to the benefit of picking the right mid pricer as you can often have them and still have those most beneficial cheap rookies

 

[crafty_bernardo]

Zach Merrett suspected knee injury?

Oops didn’t read it was from that muppet Tom Browne


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

Am I going completely pre season crazy by considering going all in on the backline to start the year? Not seeing many good backline rookie options and with the extra 10pts per player hopefully from kick ins then I can see some good scores flowing.

Def: J.Lloyd (103.32), J.Sicily (97.16), C.Blakely (92.96), A.Witherden (89.46), B.Smith (61.46), Z.Williams (58.94) - (C.Burgess (23.80), M.Hore (23.80))

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Am I going completely pre season crazy by considering going all in on the backline to start the year? Not seeing many good backline rookie options and with the extra 10pts per player hopefully from kick ins then I can see some good scores flowing.

Def: J.Lloyd (103.32), J.Sicily (97.16), C.Blakely (92.96), A.Witherden (89.46), B.Smith (61.46), Z.Williams (58.94) - (C.Burgess (23.80), M.Hore (23.80))

It's not a bad theory, they only need to turn three kicks ins from last seaosn they would have otherwise kiced form in the square to a possesion (which they all will because they'll want the bloody stats) and they go up by 10. Save hutning for a midpricer when the defenders could get a 10+ point boost form there alone.

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

T

It's not a bad theory, they only need to turn three kicks ins from last seaosn they would have otherwise kiced form in the square to a possesion (which they all will because they'll want the bloody stats) and they go up by 10. Save hutning for a midpricer when the defenders could get a 10+ point boost form there alone.

That’s what im thinking and think it will have a big impact on scoring especially early on if can get a head start with some big scores. Have just moved Sicily into the team as I can see him really taking advantage of this rule and playing on at every chance he gets now out of the square. He seems the type that would enjoy checking his stats at the end of a game

 

[FlowersByIrene]

T


That’s what im thinking and think it will have a big impact on scoring especially early on if can get a head start with some big scores. Have just moved Sicily into the team as I can see him really taking advantage of this rule and playing on at every chance he gets now out of the square. He seems the type that would enjoy checking his stats at the end of a game

I think it will still be a wait and see on the JLT though because there is a chance that teams may completely vayr their kick in routine. The extra 5 metres of space could lead to teams playing running defenders to try and run out 30 metres before kicking and this could lead to players like Saad taking more kick ins than "normal" kick in players.

This could mean that certian players actually go down in scoring opportunity. You ust have to wait and see if any teams take this approach although I reckon its not likely that would happen.

 

[DynamiteDons]

Am I going completely pre season crazy by considering going all in on the backline to start the year? Not seeing many good backline rookie options and with the extra 10pts per player hopefully from kick ins then I can see some good scores flowing.

Def: J.Lloyd (103.32), J.Sicily (97.16), C.Blakely (92.96), A.Witherden (89.46), B.Smith (61.46), Z.Williams (58.94) - (C.Burgess (23.80), M.Hore (23.80))

I would love to see what the rest of the team looks like. Definitely a decent idea

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

I would love to see what the rest of the team looks like. Definitely a decent idea

Currently sitting on this as my team, as always it’s likely to change significantly. Maybe 1 too many midpricers in the midfield, but think there’s great value in all 3 and could all go 90+

Expected Total: 2097

Def: J.Lloyd (103.32), J.Sicily (97.16), C.Blakely (92.96), A.Witherden (89.46), B.Smith (61.46), Z.Williams (58.94) (C.Burgess (23.80), M.Hore (23.80))

Mid: J.Macrae (124.60), M.Crouch (106.54), Z.Merrett (103.04), B.Crouch (73.36), D.Hannebery (60.76), A.Miles (59.50), T.Atkins (23.80), B.Bewley (23.80) (M.Allen (50), C.Constable (23.80))

Ruc: B.Grundy (121.94), M.Kreuzer (80.64) (J.Sweet (23.80), D.Fort (23.80))

Fwd: P.Dangerfield (107.94), T.Kelly (88.20), C.Rozee (36.68), W.Setterfield (35.14), B.Cavarra (25.48), S.McAdam (23.80) (J.Corbett (23.80), M.Lewis (23.80))

 

[Shadow89]

I would add Tom Atkins to this list aswell. Geelong VFL captain/BnF winner from yesteryear. I think he is a decent chance for Rd 1 - the coaches have been raving about him.

I knew I was missing one...and the most important one too, haha!

Yes definitely Atkins. He'll be on my bench from the get go if he has a good JLT. 26 tackles in a game is premium fantasy material.

 

[Shadow89]

Currently sitting on this as my team, as always it’s likely to change significantly. Maybe 1 too many midpricers in the midfield, but think there’s great value in all 3 and could all go 90+

Expected Total: 2097

Def: J.Lloyd (103.32), J.Sicily (97.16), C.Blakely (92.96), A.Witherden (89.46), B.Smith (61.46), Z.Williams (58.94) (C.Burgess (23.80), M.Hore (23.80))

Mid: J.Macrae (124.60), M.Crouch (106.54), Z.Merrett (103.04), B.Crouch (73.36), D.Hannebery (60.76), A.Miles (59.50), T.Atkins (23.80), B.Bewley (23.80) (M.Allen (50), C.Constable (23.80))

Ruc: B.Grundy (121.94), M.Kreuzer (80.64) (J.Sweet (23.80), D.Fort (23.80))

Fwd: P.Dangerfield (107.94), T.Kelly (88.20), C.Rozee (36.68), W.Setterfield (35.14), B.Cavarra (25.48), S.McAdam (23.80) (J.Corbett (23.80), M.Lewis (23.80))

Can't see McAdam, Cavarra or Bewley going 90+ tbh. It's a good team otherwise. Just think your stacked backline and balanced midfield leaves you a bit lean in the forward line. But generally one position always has to suffer. Definitely a decent crack for a pre-JLT side

 

[Tex Danger]

Can't see McAdam, Cavarra or Bewley going 90+ tbh. It's a good team otherwise. Just think your stacked backline and balanced midfield leaves you a bit lean in the forward line. But generally one position always has to suffer. Definitely a decent crack for a pre-JLT side

I think he meant Crouch, Hanners, Miles all going 90+

personally i think 1 too many fwd rookies to use that as a template to work from currently, id look at adjustments to try get at least a best 22 reliable mid pricer if not a premium you see as underpriced into F3 at the expense of a mid mid pricer or any defender.

but thats what makes the game fun, different strategies. end of the day its when you pick a player or change structure because of following others where its most disappointing when not come off as deep down you know it wasn't what you wanted to back in so i now always just go with my gut on these things

 

[Tex Danger]

I knew I was missing one...and the most important one too, haha!

Yes definitely Atkins. He'll be on my bench from the get go if he has a good JLT. 26 tackles in a game is premium fantasy material.

tell me more about atkins and his likely best 22 status to start...
how he compare to constable in that respect also.
I assume both unlikely to be best 22 but would you be comfortable in thinking 1 of the 2 are a good shot and pick whichever named?

 

[PAFC27]

Interesting to see defensive lines favoured so much. Bit reactionary and it's making midfield and especially forward lines pretty weak in my opinion. JLT can't come soon enough lol

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Interesting to see defensive lines favoured so much. Bit reactionary and it's making midfield and especially forward lines pretty weak in my opinion. JLT can't come soon enough lol

The difficult thing is that defensive rookies are usually the most reliable too. And they will often take the kick ins as well so they may do really well and loading up on premos takes away your chance to get them.

It's a delicate balancing act

 

[samFFC]

The difficult thing is that defensive rookies are usually the most reliable too. And they will often take the kick ins as well so they may do really well and loading up on premos takes away your chance to get them.

It's a delicate balancing act

Yeah last yeah we were spoiled by defensive rookies but not much up front early on.
Pre season shows up the names like Finlayson, Doedee that may not have been considered earlier but became essential.

 

[bol316]

Interesting to see defensive lines favoured so much. Bit reactionary and it's making midfield and especially forward lines pretty weak in my opinion. JLT can't come soon enough lol

The change happened, so you have to "react". Theres no use in denying it. Just have to go with it. I was def one of the "reactionary" ones. Just buy yourself 5 premium defenders and Z Williams. You are almost 100% guaranteed to gain some value on them, at worst. At best they gain a lot of value.

Responding to a previous post, I think forwards are just so hard to judge, so I kind of wait on them. I am getting Danger, Wingard and Dunkley to start (still back and forth on Setterfield). Really nice midfield values too, though maybe a tad overblown.

 

[Shadow89]

tell me more about atkins and his likely best 22 status to start...
how he compare to constable in that respect also.
I assume both unlikely to be best 22 but would you be comfortable in thinking 1 of the 2 are a good shot and pick whichever named?

Both Constable and Atkins are tracking really well, so there's a good chance you could have both of them on your bench, given that they're basement price.

At this point, I'd be leaning more towards Constable, given the shake-up that our midfield is getting this year. Selwood will play back a bit, Ablett is already training with the forwards and Danger, Kelly and Duncan will be the dominant mids. Constable is that big bodied 6'3 mid we're looking for, that can really change the dynamic of our structure. Atkins will play at some point, but I feel our forward line is actually quite stacked too, given the focus we placed on it during trade and draft period. Constable could play a lot of games this year, if he gets his tank to where it needs to be. Here's a good article if you haven't read it already. Highlights a bit about the aforementioned younger players

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-12-...kened-to-cripps-could-join-jampacked-midfield

 

[Shadow89]

The change happened, so you have to "react". Theres no use in denying it. Just have to go with it. I was def one of the "reactionary" ones. Just buy yourself 5 premium defenders and Z Williams. You are almost 100% guaranteed to gain some value on them, at worst. At best they gain a lot of value.

Responding to a previous post, I think forwards are just so hard to judge, so I kind of wait on them. I am getting Danger, Wingard and Dunkley to start (still back and forth on Setterfield). Really nice midfield values too, though maybe a tad overblown.

Definitely a fair point but not entirely sold on that logic, tbh. Williams is a decent pick, but he's not a lock by any means. You could just as easily start with someone like Jordan Clark at 200K cheaper, and he could score the same. Brodie Smith could average 80 but he's not going to be in your best side at the end of the season. Meanwhile Clark is sitting at the same score or similar to Smith and/or Williams, and one person has an extra 200K.

There is definitely a good chance that defender scoring could outpace the forwards this year, but there's also a good chance it might not. That's why it's so tough pre-JLT, as there's just a million different ideas that you've got, that all contradict the others.

Personally, I won't touch Sicily with a 10 foot pole, and reckon B. Crouch and Hanners will break down early. More confident on Hanners than Crouch, so he's a 'wait and see' prospect. Won't be going with Miles either, as Gold Coast will remain a basket-case for at least the foreseeable future, and can't see that changing. Kreuzer is another I won't be touching either.

I do like Lloyd and Blakely though, as they both have huge ceilings and either could be D1 or D2. Although, Laird is still the main priority IMO.

Personally, I think the only absolute locks at this stage are:

Macrae
Danger
Grundy
Brayshaw (Melbourne)
Walsh
Lloyd
Laird
Dusty (predominant mid with Lynch playing, injury free)