2019 planning

[Shadow89]

Reporting back here about the Port intra club earlier today (from a fantasy perspective). I'll start with the rule changes.

Kick ins were largely shared about between the defenders. There was no clear sole kick in duty. There wasn't much playing on.

The 6/6/6 starting positions created a lot of space which the outside types took advantage of.

The new ruck rules were slightly noticeable. Lycett certainly took advantage of this and I wouldn't be against having him as a POD starter.

As for the players...
Ryder started forward and spent a decent chunk of time there while swapping with Lycett. Both worked well together and could see Lycett being a ruck smoky. Had plenty of intensity and follow up work after the tap.

Broadbent was impressive in his first hit out in years. Add another player to your defender depth because I think he averages 80 off the back of that. Played back but pushed high up the ground setting up play for our forwards.

Rockliff spent nearly all his TOG in the midfield. Got a fair bit of it and did okay. I'm not sure he increases his fantasy output past 100 again - though Rocky strikes me as a guy to go bang in JLT/round 1 instead.

Rozee is slick. Kid has some serious skills and weapons. Probably got about 15-20 touches and was dangerous with each one. Fantasy rookie option, though I'd be looking for value elsewhere...

Burton started and played a lot of midfield in the first half. Didn't look out of sorts and did some nice things. Was slotted into CHB in the second half due to low stocks down there. Had some nice intercept marks in that role as well. Not as bullish on him in fantasy as others though.

Drew was great. Genuine ball hunter who had a crack every time. A possible cash cow if he gets games.

Boak should be mentioned in the same breath as your Wingards, Kelly's, Billings and Heeneys of the world. Played nearly full time mid and didn't miss a beat. Absolute monster in that midfield, playing where he should have always been. I've put him in my team now.

Westhoff started forward before going into his roaming role. Looked dangerous at times, especially up forward. I don't see him being as fantasy relevant as 2018 though.

Pudney found the ball all day long. You couldn't keep him from it. Won't play round 1 but he's certainly one to watch for your downgrade options. Probably had the most touches on the ground behind SPP.

Butters is very much like Robbie Gray. But I don't see him being too fantasy relevant.

SPP is a contender for a breakout year. Holy hell he was involved in everything. Worked hard in the guts and tackled with tenacity. Possible POD and could be worth a look if he plays well in JLT. Remember, this is a bloke who had 17 tackles in a game last year.

Finally, my favourite, the best for last. Xavier Duursma. Holy crap the kid is a star. Think Angus Brayshaw with Fyfes marking ability. A genuine fantasy cash cow option if he plays round 1. Tackles, spreads, knows when to attack the ball and was always near it. I'll be starting with Duursma in 2019.

Hope this helps guys.

Incredible, this really does help. I've also been considering Lycett for his DPP as a smoky, but it's just about how much time he splits with Westhoff and Ryder. Hinkley does love messing around with things. Boak is the other one that I've had my eye on all pre-season, as he will 100% average 100 if he's in the mids. Loving that Rocky is full time in the mids as well, as that pretty much locks him in for me.

Cheers man!

 

[Shadow89]

Titchs average went from 106 to 127 after adjusting his kick:handball ratio. Don't see why Crouch couldn't take another step, he's only 23

Just food for thought

Mmm, I just don't think it's his game though. You do make a good point with Titch, but I swear he just loves his fantasy numbers, haha

 

[Shadow89]

Is there any worry with Brouch coming in that there'll be a little more of a spread between the Crows mids as well?

Yeah, I think that could have a slight effect. Although, it seems that Brouch would push Gibbs out (half back/half forward at times). Gibbs will still play a ton of mid time, but he has that role flexibility that some of the other mids don't. If Sloane, B Crouch, M Crouch and Gibbs all play pure mid, it could be either a fantasy smorgasbord or all their scoring dries up. I'm steering clear of all the other Crows mids for that reason (except Brouch).

 

[JDWCE]

Yeah, I think that could have a slight effect. Although, it seems that Brouch would push Gibbs out (half back/half forward at times). Gibbs will still play a ton of mid time, but he has that role flexibility that some of the other mids don't. If Sloane, B Crouch, M Crouch and Gibbs all play pure mid, it could be either a fantasy smorgasbord or all their scoring dries up. I'm steering clear of all the other Crows mids for that reason (except Brouch).

Pretty much the same reason I'm steering clear of the Pies mids. Hopefully doesn't bite us in the ass

 

[Rendaw]

M Crouch is 3rd for points per minute and he only plays about 75% game time. It doesnt matter if all he does is handball coz he still racks up the points. If he increases his game time or learns to kick more then he will go over 120 and potentially be snouted.

 

[PAFC27]

M Crouch is 3rd for points per minute and he only plays about 75% game time. It doesnt matter if all he does is handball coz he still racks up the points. If he increases his game time or learns to kick more then he will go over 120 and potentially be snouted.

Imagine a bump up to 85% TOG. Worth watching that stat in JLT

 

[PAFC27]

For those of you running with Tim English to start, here's some confirmation. For those of you considering Tim English to start, thisll add to your confusion.

Dog eyes No.1 ruck spot after stacking on the kilos - http://m.afl.com.au/news/2019-02-17/dog-eyes-no1-ruck-spot-after-stacking-on-the-kilos

 

[JDWCE]

M Crouch is 3rd for points per minute and he only plays about 75% game time. It doesnt matter if all he does is handball coz he still racks up the points. If he increases his game time or learns to kick more then he will go over 120 and potentially be snouted.

Imagine a bump up to 85% TOG. Worth watching that stat in JLT

Is there a reason he has such low TOG? Eg. Poor tank?

 

[PAFC27]

Is there a reason he has such low TOG? Eg. Poor tank?

His major knock during his draft year was fitness. Has gone at 77, 76 and 77% TOG the last three years so there's room for improvement if he rests somewhere on field

 

[DynamiteDons]

whats the thoughts on Brodie Smith's scoring output, could he be a 85-90+ scorer?

 

[Rendaw]

whats the thoughts on Brodie Smith's scoring output, could he be a 85-90+ scorer?

He hasnt cracked 80 in the last 4 years and is returning from an ACL. Even with the kick out rule I doubt he is going to have a career best year.

 

[PAFC27]

whats the thoughts on Brodie Smith's scoring output, could he be a 85-90+ scorer?

You'd think so. Adelaide have publically said he will take a lot of the kick in duties. Around 80ish for me.

My concern is that Brodie doesn't play on from the square and get a stat for it. His leg is huge, he doesn't necessarily have to play on like others may

 

[PAFC27]

Lets talk hypothetical.

Hypothetically, you select Grundy as your R1 and hypothetically you select a weaker R2 option, perhaps a Tim English type.

Instead, you use the money to reach for a Jackson MacRae in the midfield as your M1.

Instead of your two set and forget ruckman, you still have two set and forgets with the added bonus of an extra 10, 20 points on top if MacRae is your captain. Hmm

Thoughts on this?

 

[Rendaw]

Lets talk hypothetical.

Hypothetically, you select Grundy as your R1 and hypothetically you select a weaker R2 option, perhaps a Tim English type.

Instead, you use the money to reach for a Jackson MacRae in the midfield as your M1.

Instead of your two set and forget ruckman, you still have two set and forgets with the added bonus of an extra 10, 20 points on top if MacRae is your captain. Hmm

Thoughts on this?

Its so tempting but then I think about all of the headaches Iv had with rucks in the past. If something happens you just dont have the cover and would have to sacrifice another position to find the money for an upgrade. Even Mumford isnt a sure thing and adds risk and costs extra trades.

IMO its just not worth the BS if something goes wrong.

 

[PAFC27]

Its so tempting but then I think about all of the headaches Iv had with rucks in the past. If something happens you just dont have the cover and would have to sacrifice another position to find the money for an upgrade. Even Mumford isnt a sure thing and adds risk and costs extra trades.

IMO its just not worth the BS if something goes wrong.

You're probably right. And the strategy would likely rest on the Mumford contingency plan which like you said...there's no guarantees there

 

[Cotchy9]

Its so tempting but then I think about all of the headaches Iv had with rucks in the past. If something happens you just dont have the cover and would have to sacrifice another position to find the money for an upgrade. Even Mumford isnt a sure thing and adds risk and costs extra trades.

IMO its just not worth the BS if something goes wrong.

100% this. It’s just too risky going cheap in the rucks, as you need to find big money to get someone good in if said cheaper goes down, and likely none of the bench rucks will play if you need cover for a week or two. Gawn, Goldy, Stef, Witts, Nank, Jacobs all good R2 options imo. Done with upside in that lot too

 

[VSTone]

Lets talk hypothetical.

Hypothetically, you select Grundy as your R1 and hypothetically you select a weaker R2 option, perhaps a Tim English type.

Instead, you use the money to reach for a Jackson MacRae in the midfield as your M1.

Instead of your two set and forget ruckman, you still have two set and forgets with the added bonus of an extra 10, 20 points on top if MacRae is your captain. Hmm

Thoughts on this?

Grundy & Gawn for me... the ability to trade out of trouble with the cheapo R2 was a contiual headache as options were thin when things went south last season, once bitten twice shy for me.... mid - fwd - def options are much easier to find.

 

[happy_eagle]

whats the thoughts on Brodie Smith's scoring output, could he be a 85-90+ scorer?

He's never been that in his career
High 70s maybe low 80s if he gets a few more kick ins
Avoid

 

[Jessbek]

Never asked many of these but

Laird and Parfitt or Whitfield and T.Kelly

 

[JDWCE]

Never asked many of these but

Laird and Parfitt or Whitfield and T.Kelly

The 2 premo’s in Whitfield and Telly

 

[PAFC27]

Unrelated to 2019 but what year did fantasy start? Unable to find via google

 

[Shadow89]

Unrelated to 2019 but what year did fantasy start? Unable to find via google

2007 Just look up *insert player* breakeven, and then it should be on footywire. I've used Selwood here:

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pr-geelong-cats--joel-selwood

 

[Shadow89]

He's never been that in his career
High 70s maybe low 80s if he gets a few more kick ins
Avoid

How is that an avoid? Still means that he's 15-20 points under-priced, with more upside than downside due to his kick in duties. Could go 85 this year and be a nice quick cash grab. Understand that there's risk, but at the very least, he's gonna make you money pretty quickly

 

[happy_eagle]

2007 Just look up *insert player* breakeven, and then it should be on footywire. I've used Selwood here:

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pr-geelong-cats--joel-selwood

AFL Fantasy pre-dates 2007 (although it was under the virtualsports umbrella who do RDT now)
I think first year I did it was 2005. You actually had 3 ruckmen at that stage and Fraser, Lade, Cox was the golden trio

 

[happy_eagle]

How is that an avoid? Still means that he's 15-20 points under-priced, with more upside than downside due to his kick in duties. Could go 85 this year and be a nice quick cash grab. Understand that there's risk, but at the very least, he's gonna make you money pretty quickly

He'll certainly go up in price, not doubting that, but I reckon he'd have to go at around 85 for it to be a quick valuable rise rather than a slow burn.

Last 5 years he has gone 79, 77, 71, 82, 68. Those figures suggest he is naturally a 75 type player.

One thing going in his favour though is the story of Shannon Hurn last year. Like Smith, Hurn was always presumed to have fantasy potential given his role but never scored well until last year. Maybe Smith can do that

If there is a defender i'm going to take a risk on (possibly at D4) then its Pearce Hanley. 72 in his first year at GC, and 83, 89, 98, 85 in his previous 4 at the Lions. Thats proven scoring ability if he can get on the park.