2019 planning

[4tune8]

No defender rookie is going to average close to Williams though. I'd be a whole lot more concerned with Brodie Smith than Williams as well. A good option would be to just combine the two for a Sicily and take a rookie on top if you're backing in the cheap defender depth I guess

Just something to chew on though, your team!

Man, I'm like a cow chewing on a cud
But my point was, is it better to use the cash saved on Williams to upgrade say a MId Midpricer to a premo and run a Def rook that will average 10-20 points less and generate the same cash. Potentially ending up with a Mid keeper for basically the same points

 

[bol316]

At the risk of being that guy that just shits on popular picks, whats the verdict on Zac Williams.
Had 2 seasons of 83 and 82, which is hardly premium level. Are people selecting him to be a keeper and 95+ average type? Would require a big step up in his game.

He's a bit awkwardly priced for mine. Definitely value like Smith, but to what extent ?

Job security is the bonus. The rookie (especially a 170k) is going to be a question mark often. Lets say you are choosing between Williams and Worpel or Whitfield and a 170k. You are risking having to use a trade on that rookie if they arent selected. No such risk with Williams and Worpel. Some people also are gambling, on the long shot, that players like Smith/Williams end up being keepers.

Also, using my example, lets say Williams and Worpel gain exactly 200K each. Whitfield probably gains nothing and hovers and the rookie gains 200. You now have 625+680 (1305) in value on your team compared to 726+370 (1096) for the same starting cost. Which would you rather have?

 

[happy_eagle]

The way my side is going I might well end up with a Williams/Smith type at D4 anyway.

Just not quite sold on either yet.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Williams is one of the few midpricers available who has the possibility to be a keeper. Could easily average 92 and sit at D6 until Round 20 odd.. the same can't be said for any other midpricer besides maybe Brad Crouch? But he's still highly unlikely to be viable Round 20

 

[Keystone agony]

Alot of midprice talk lately which i like to see as its something we as coaches are taught almost not to pick and thats fair enough. Get the right midpricers and you finish very high.

Im considering a few strongly

Zac Williams - Cant even believe this is being debated unless hes done no PS. Avgs minimum 22 improvement on price for me ie 80. I think he probably does 85+. I dont see any defender rookie avg over 65 with how they are. Dont see Doedee or Murray types. But even if there was id be picking both ie Sam Collins and Zac williams and changing elsewhere.

Brodie Smith - Hes one of more concern. Hes priced a bit higher and history suggest he avgs less and plateaus at that 75-80 range. Hes still an option the kickout rule benefits a little. Id give him 78 as a number right now... unsure if thats enough. I remember reading in 2017 he took 77 kickouts. So about 3-4 a game.

Mills - I still quite like him i think he could go 88 and he needs to at current price. Purely JLT role pending if hes onball with JPK and Heeney over JLT then ill struggle to not pick him. He avg 85 over the back half of his first year of AFL

Worpel - Im huge on this guy
I dont think ill start him... maybe at F4 hes a decent fantasy scorer. He loves a tackle and onball i suspect plenty of tackles. I liked that the hawks backed him in late last year when finals were in contention. I suspect he will get better as the year goes on. I loved him as a junior before i even knew who he was.

Tim English - Purely role pending. How much time he plays as a ruck. Whats trengove and Boyd doing. English is probably a better ruck and fwd than Trengove. Trengoves never been much of a fwd. Hard to see what happens there. What other ruck options are there... not much

 

[Cotchy9]

Macrae, B.Crouch, Collins
V
M.Crouch, Adams, Logue?

 

[bol316]

Macrae, B.Crouch, Collins
V
M.Crouch, Adams, Logue?

Thats tough. I think because Adams has an half decent shot at being a top 8 maybe go with 2. Especially if you are running Grundy in ruck as a captain. Adams is safer also then BC

 

[Elroy67]

Thats tough. I think because Adams has an half decent shot at being a top 8 maybe go with 2. Especially if you are running Grundy in ruck as a captain. Adams is safer also then BC

I agree. it's a tough choice, and I'm not sure there is much difference points wise, however...

At this stage I would choose 1.

I'm confident Macrae will finish as a top 8 mid, I think B.Crouch has more upside than Adams, and Collins has more job security than Logue for not many more $$$.

 

[JDWCE]

Alot of midprice talk lately which i like to see as its something we as coaches are taught almost not to pick and thats fair enough. Get the right midpricers and you finish very high.

Im considering a few strongly

Zac Williams - Cant even believe this is being debated unless hes done no PS. Avgs minimum 22 improvement on price for me ie 80. I think he probably does 85+. I dont see any defender rookie avg over 65 with how they are. Dont see Doedee or Murray types. But even if there was id be picking both ie Sam Collins and Zac williams and changing elsewhere.

Brodie Smith - Hes one of more concern. Hes priced a bit higher and history suggest he avgs less and plateaus at that 75-80 range. Hes still an option the kickout rule benefits a little. Id give him 78 as a number right now... unsure if thats enough. I remember reading in 2017 he took 77 kickouts. So about 3-4 a game.

Mills - I still quite like him i think he could go 88 and he needs to at current price. Purely JLT role pending if hes onball with JPK and Heeney over JLT then ill struggle to not pick him. He avg 85 over the back half of his first year of AFL

Worpel - Im huge on this guy
I dont think ill start him... maybe at F4 hes a decent fantasy scorer. He loves a tackle and onball i suspect plenty of tackles. I liked that the hawks backed him in late last year when finals were in contention. I suspect he will get better as the year goes on. I loved him as a junior before i even knew who he was.

Tim English - Purely role pending. How much time he plays as a ruck. Whats trengove and Boyd doing. English is probably a better ruck and fwd than Trengove. Trengoves never been much of a fwd. Hard to see what happens there. What other ruck options are there... not much

Good analysis. Could even throw a few more in there:

McGrath - word is added midfield time and been told to kick more by the coaches. Hard to see where his added midfield time is going to come from though with the inclusion of Shiel and the added responsibilities from someone like Parish. JLT watch.

Parfitt - with Ablett playing predominately forward, does Parfitt move purely on ball? Has shown serious scoring capabilities when he played there last year.

Newman - awkward price. Has the scope to go huge with his ceiling. Can rack up +6’s at will but whether he does or not at Carlton is another story. Seems to be a bit of a marshall in Carlton’s defence according to some of their training reports. Could easily improve his average after a poor year last year and the fact horse regularly played him out of position

 

[VSTone]

Macrae, B.Crouch, Collins
V
M.Crouch, Adams, Logue?

Adams, BCrouch, Collins + Some Cash 170k is the way i'm rolling atm.

 

[Thetrader15]

Witherden v Sicily?

Thoughts? I love thenidea of Sic but feel Witherden might be the more sensible option

 

[JDWCE]

Witherden v Sicily?

Thoughts? I love thenidea of Sic but feel Witherden might be the more sensible option

Definitely the more sensible option and argument he is underpriced. Sic is high risk high reward I feel. Both should be great picks

 

[Rendaw]

How many midpricers is everyone rocking?

Iv got 3 in Newman, Williams and Crouch with all 3 being potential premiums. Iv had Luke Ryan and Hanners in and out of my team every few days.

 

[Corby_4]

How many midpricers is everyone rocking?

Iv got 3 in Newman, Williams and Crouch with all 3 being potential premiums. Iv had Luke Ryan and Hanners in and out of my team every few days.

2 in Williams and English

 

[atlas1]

How many midpricers is everyone rocking?

Iv got 3 in Newman, Williams and Crouch with all 3 being potential premiums. Iv had Luke Ryan and Hanners in and out of my team every few days.

Roberton, Smith, Williams, Libba, Worpel

 

[FlowersByIrene]

How many midpricers is everyone rocking?

Iv got 3 in Newman, Williams and Crouch with all 3 being potential premiums. Iv had Luke Ryan and Hanners in and out of my team every few days.

Williams, Smith, B.Crouch.

I may end up cutting B.Crouch and Smith for one premo and one rookie at a later date but we'll see.

 

[Thetrader15]

What's happened to the comparison option on the new fantasy site? Can it still be done or have they gone and removed this valuable feature for the less valuable, larger headshot

 

[VSTone]

How many midpricers is everyone rocking?

Iv got 3 in Newman, Williams and Crouch with all 3 being potential premiums. Iv had Luke Ryan and Hanners in and out of my team every few days.

Williams, Rockliff, BCrouch, Walker ---- with Newman, Worpel, Parfitt on the JLT radar... with a bit of cash to spare.

 

[DynamiteDons]

How many midpricers is everyone rocking?

Iv got 3 in Newman, Williams and Crouch with all 3 being potential premiums. Iv had Luke Ryan and Hanners in and out of my team every few days.

I've got two in Williams and Crouch, while being seriously tempted to run with Brodie Smith and Williams in the backline, but not sure yet.

 

[DynamiteDons]

Nic Newman, Brodie Smith, Callum Mills, Andy McGrath? Who would you pick out of those four

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Nic Newman, Brodie Smith, Callum Mills, Andy McGrath? Who would you pick out of those four

In terms of value:
1. Smith
2. Mills
3. Newman
4. McGrath

In terms of scoring:
1. Newman
2. Smith
3. Mills
4. McGrath

In terms of potential to breakout
1. Mills
2. McGrath
3. Newman
4. Smith

You go with Smith in Classic i think.

 

[4tune8]

How many midpricers is everyone rocking?

Iv got 3 in Newman, Williams and Crouch with all 3 being potential premiums. Iv had Luke Ryan and Hanners in and out of my team every few days.

1 on each line
Williams
Crouch
English
Worpel
Not sold yet, and I'm half inclined to 'Clear team' and start again

 

[FlowersByIrene]

1 on each line
Williams
Crouch
English
Worpel
Not sold yet, and I'm half inclined to 'Clear team' and start again

I think Williams and Crouch are really good picks. I've crunched a few numbers this preseason and based on those figures I have Williams as a "Tier 1" Defender, meaning he's capable of being in the top 10 defenders all season, while Crouch is a "Tier 3" midfielder who may sit just outside the Top 20 Midfielders. (Please note these are just statisical analysis figures using weighted averages formulas and don't take into account my personal projections or thoughts) Therefore, I reckon they are both capable of sitting in your side till the Fantasy Finals and are very good picks as they will increase their numbers and rise in value and score well for you as they do.

English and Worpel are not tiered on my analysis, but Worpel does show a potential +6 point upside this season on a weighted avergae basis due to his strong second half of the season. With Worps you're expecting a breakout season to push it into the +10-20 range. English's figures don't show any upside on a wighted average basis but you're banking on a decrease in competition in the ruck role at the Doggies to push him to a breakout season with a +10-20 increase.

The question is.. does Worpel and English outscore a guns and rooks alternative. Worps and English is roughly $900 combined. If you go with a forward rookie (you can't really go with a ruck rookie unless you're crazy) that leaves you roughly $730k to grab a ruckman. Is Worpel and English better than Goldstein/Witts and a Rookie.

Worpel 70-90
English 70-85

vs

Goldy/Witts 90-100
Rookie 55-65

Equals out to 140-175 vs 145-165.

It's very even. So even that you have to question the trade value. Will Worpel be a top 6 forwward, potentially if all goes well. English won't be a top 2 ruckman though. As for the others, Goldy or Witts won't be top 2 but they may be close enough not to worry about the trade. The rookie will obviously need to be traded.

Effectively it comes down to how much you rate Worpel. If you're really high, go that combination. If you want something safer, maybe go Goldstein/Witts and a rookie.

 

[4tune8]

I think Williams and Crouch are really good picks. I've crunched a few numbers this preseason and based on those figures I have Williams as a "Tier 1" Defender, meaning he's capable of being in the top 10 defenders all season, while Crouch is a "Tier 3" midfielder who may sit just outside the Top 20 Midfielders. (Please note these are just statisical analysis figures using weighted averages formulas and don't take into account my personal projections or thoughts) Therefore, I reckon they are both capable of sitting in your side till the Fantasy Finals and are very good picks as they will increase their numbers and rise in value and score well for you as they do.

English and Worpel are not tiered on my analysis, but Worpel does show a potential +6 point upside this season on a weighted avergae basis due to his strong second half of the season. With Worps you're expecting a breakout season to push it into the +10-20 range. English's figures don't show any upside on a wighted average basis but you're banking on a decrease in competition in the ruck role at the Doggies to push him to a breakout season with a +10-20 increase.

The question is.. does Worpel and English outscore a guns and rooks alternative. Worps and English is roughly $900 combined. If you go with a forward rookie (you can't really go with a ruck rookie unless you're crazy) that leaves you roughly $730k to grab a ruckman. Is Worpel and English better than Goldstein/Witts and a Rookie.

Worpel 70-90
English 70-85

vs

Goldy/Witts 90-100
Rookie 55-65

Equals out to 140-175 vs 145-165.

It's very even. So even that you have to question the trade value. Will Worpel be a top 6 forwward, potentially if all goes well. English won't be a top 2 ruckman though. As for the others, Goldy or Witts won't be top 2 but they may be close enough not to worry about the trade. The rookie will obviously need to be traded.

Effectively it comes down to how much you rate Worpel. If you're really high, go that combination. If you want something safer, maybe go Goldstein/Witts and a rookie.

That's awesome, really well thought out analysis and it sounds like you've thought about all these guys.

I'm not sold on Worpel and reckon he's a 'wait n see' type, I have my eyes on a few others. Same with English. I don't see either Goldy or Witts as being keepers either, it's more about having reasonably scoring players while waiting for Gawn/Grundy to establish scoring patterns and hopefully a drop in price for both before bringing them in (same with Macrae, Lloyd, Laird), using that cash saved to bolster other lines then having a few midpricers to let me have the flexibility to cash them out with a rookie earlier than if I'd have to rely on 2 or more rooks/upgrade.

I know the Guns n Rooks strategy can work, but from what I've noticed over the last couple of years teams with cash tied up with a sprinkle of midpricers have the flexibility to trade out without affecting their premo structure. This years crop of underpriced premos really lends itself to this strategy.

 

[guero]

So Williams...

...only played 2 games last year, but was 3rd highest points per minute def-eligible scorer behind Laird and Whitfield. Not saying he’ll get close to those blokes, but he should be able to bump up his low (75.8%) TOG. He’s priced at 58, which is a 28.5 point discount on what he averaged in the 2 games he played.

IMO he’s a gift, just pick him.

Edit: remembering he’s not coming back from injury, he’s over it...and he played a couple of games in the back end. Kinda like Cogs the year before.