Coach Chris Scott re-signs to 2022 (aka the Chris Scott discussion Part IV)

[Landgraft]

Well last time a looked he signed with Richmond at 6.5m over 7. We can revisit that in another thread if required.

The next two paragraphs can just be simplified into you like the list its top 4 and premiership ready.



" I think its key to never assume anything"

" risk of overbalancing"

"Dangerwood day care "

" I'm happy to agree the competition will be fierce"

" even if some of the teams in contention change the overall number should be similar"

" if you have a list that's top 4 ( we definately do) why wouldnt you back it to the hilt"

" Most rebuilds won't end up in this level, and will take years to not end up at this level"

" just because the eagles won the flag doesn't mean they were on a flag path and we were not"

" we were on different paths that gave us a chance"

" just because those chances don't come up doesn't mean you were unable to win"

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Yeah towards the end I was just plain confused yeah geelong made the finals last season and if we get Dr Strange to bend some reality I suppose we were a chance to win it all. Would prefer to get a bit closer to call it an opportunity though.

Think we are finished longwinded way of saying you have geelong top 4 in premiership contention.

I think making the bottom of the 8 would be a great achievement with this list.

I'll just wait for the 22 games before I comment again.

I wasn't very long-winded in saying that, it was the first thing I said in my original post at you. And we are 100% capable of finishing top 4, that should not be in doubt.

Beyond that I'm not sure whether you're genuinely struggling or just trying to make fun of me. Oh well. You're not looking closely at or analysing anything, just guessing based on gut feel. Hard to take that very personally - except maybe for the lack of effort it shows. A bit rude.

 

[Partridge]

Funny, because it took Bomber EIGHT seasons to win his FIRST flag at Geelong.

Hope you held him to the same account as well.

As you only joined in October 2017 it would be way before you started making contributions.

 

[Spazz Cat]

As you only joined in October 2017 it would be way before you started making contributions.

Hehehe.
You know things are dire when you have to make up separate accounts to make it look like more people like the coach.

 

[Ray Donovan]

I wasn't very long-winded in saying that, it was the first thing I said in my original post at you. And we are 100% capable of finishing top 4, that should not be in doubt.

Beyond that I'm not sure whether you're genuinely struggling or just trying to make fun of me. Oh well. You're not looking closely at or analysing anything, just guessing based on gut feel. Hard to take that very personally - except maybe for the lack of effort it shows. A bit rude.

I'll bet my account with you.

If geelong make the top 4 I will delete my bigfooty account.

If geelong miss the 8 you delete your big footy account

(Anything in between we will call a draw)

Seems fair to me because you have done all your analysis. And my lack of analysis is a bit rude and shows a lack of effort.

Effort before a pre-season ball had bounced of course your eagle eye analysis is good.

So be a man and put your account up


*holds hand out*

 

[Turbocat]

First off its safe to say I disagree intensely with the suggestion that our list is not poised for finals this year. We should firmly have our eyes on a top four finish (not that this means one is guaranteed, but it is definitely achievable).

But more crucially I think once you filter out all the chatter and general bullshit its worth appreciating that lists tend to be quite delicately balanced, as is the nature of all things in professional competition - only small adjustments lead to you creating a fairly heavy skew, because the status quo involves competitors so closely mirroring each other.

We currently have somewhere between 44 and 46 AFL listed players, depending on whether or not you choose to count the Cat B rookies as AFL listed. With that we have 20 players under 23, then a sprinkling upwards through to Gaz at 35. You could say it looks something like this.

View attachment 622772

But then if you were to apply possible outcomes of even a relatively mild 'cleanout' and look at next year things get very different very quickly. I've assumed the following players are gone, as most certainly agree they will be

• Gary Ablett
• Zac Smith
• Harry Taylor
• Scott Selwood
• Tim Kelly
• Wylie Buzza

Further to that I've assumed that we're trying to trade in some draft picks, as you requested initially. There's not much in the way of trade bait left on our list with the cuts we've already taken here but I've removed

• Nakia Cockatoo
• Cameron Guthrie

As probably the most replaceable players that would have some currency. If we load up on our draftees our age profile in 2020 would look like this

View attachment 622775

Our veterans are very important to balancing our list, and so are our mature pathways - whether that's FA, trade, or drafting from the state leagues. We already have a big bubble at the bottom of our list going into this season, I don't think it would be responsible to exacerbate the effect to the point where more than half the list is composed of u23 guys.



Not really borne out by the numbers, which are located in this article https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-02-19/why-666-rule-could-force-tigers-into-a-radical-shakeup

I think they're actually quite interesting. I definitely didn't realise Scotty made so much use of 6-6-6 - although devoid of context as it is it's hard to say what circumstances causes our center bounce structure to shift.

Interesting post and I do enjoy your posts.
The thrust of list balance by age differs a bit to my issues with where our list demands lie but in the end ..if we can find quality players with later picks then we should be able to cover the loss of our quality older players. The question is can we really find a Selwood type the way we have been trying to. Perhaps. Kelly is a better player than a R2 pick, Stewart 40's , Blitz was not even a draft pick etc etc. ..but do we have a preponderance of youth draft too late to really rely on them developing into elite top 50 / B&F / AA type players?
My fear is born out from the quality of players that generally comes drafting single figure draft picks... and if you plotted your graphs on drafted single figure picks thru our era of success... I suspect your plus 2022 graph may look bare in that column.

On CS .. I think he originally was tasked with having transitioned the side and be ready to win another flag by 2017 /2018 ..but as usualy these thing do always take longer than estimated. I still remember listening to Costa defending Thompson around 05 or 06..whenre the frustration and patience after the rebuild pain was starting to wear thin.
I feel in a bit in 17 but definitely after 18 I think club has started to realise that we must rejig our bias towards youth and development ..but as yet they have not tried to attack the draft like they did back in 99. I suspect if we lost a Varcoe type now we probably would take the pick rather then trying to patch a hole with a mature player

 

[Max Milburn]

I was one of the fans who was pissed off by 2006, and am glad that the club got the kick up the arse that was needed (both Bomber and the players needed it).

I am also open to review Chris Scott's position each year. But if the club re-sign him for two more years, despite the results, then don't blame CS for not wanting to be unemployed, but the board for giving him yet another chance. Pu the blame on those who make the decision, not the one who benefits from it.

I am sure that you are one of the ones who has dismissed CS's efforts in 2011. I am sure I have read posts where you have done that. Maybe I am wrong, but I do know that you have been pretty fierce, and sometimes unfairly so, on Scott, for things that aren't always as much under his control as you think they are.

You're spraying your shots and hitting innocent bystanders.
You need to be a bit more focused if you want anyone to listen to your arguments.

 

[barmy44]

I'll bet my account with you.

If geelong make the top 4 I will delete my bigfooty account.

If geelong miss the 8 you delete your big footy account

(Anything in between we will call a draw)

Seems fair to me because you have done all your analysis. And my lack of analysis is a bit rude and shows a lack of effort.

Effort before a pre-season ball had bounced of course your eagle eye analysis is good.

So be a man and put your account up


*holds hand out*

its got nothing to do with 'being a man'. and to speak on his behalf, what would be the point of risking his account?

Landgraft has not once said 'geelong cannot miss the top 4'. he said theyre capable of making it. and its true, they are.

can they? yes. will they? who knows.

every year, there are more than 4 sides capable of making top 4. every year, there are more than a single side capable of winning the premiership.

do they all achieve what theyre capable of? no. does this mean they were never capable of it? also no.

it holds across all sports. every tennis grand slam, there are numerous players good enough to and capable of winning it. only one ever does.

i believe that is the thrust of his point.

 

[Nickoo]

You are completely wrong. I have never dismissed 2011.
And yes like that was mentioned in the Gary Ayres thread I often am guilty of blaming things I think have gone downhill at club as whole on the coach, but I believe many of my criticisms have merit.
And yes if we lose a finals in the same fashion I'm gonna lose it. Especially after the game. I am a melter.
And yeah, I give him s**t for how he talks and comes across. Depending on my mood I find it either very comical or very annoying.
If people want to stir the pot and are clearly looking for reactions by calling the previous coach druggy etc.
I'm gonna have some fun with it. Why not. I enjoy a bit banter.

I reckon everyone thinks in the moment their opinions have merit......

I don’t think most people think, oh god my opinions are hopeless, that’s right I’m a DH, I’ve got no idea what’s going on.

Everyone’s opinion on these boards is as valid as any other without factual support.

Go your hardest spazz, I just ignore any hyperbole anyway.

I worry about Chris but I think he has done exactly what has been asked of him by the board. I doubt the board thought they’d win another premiership in the last 7 years unless we pinched one. Remember well that board members thought we’d lose the preseason gf in adel ‘06 and were annoyed at even being there(miss the preseason cups, better than the palava we have now).

But I do think the goals, objectives have just been changed. We want a different game style and I reckon we are finally able to gamble losing games in order win more than we lose if that makes sense. It’s felt for years like we are always just trying to win more h/a than we lose without much of an eye to what we do in the finals. That’s out the door now.




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[Spazz Cat]

I reckon everyone thinks in the moment their opinions have merit......

I don’t think most people think, oh god my opinions are hopeless, that’s right I’m a DH, I’ve got no idea what’s going on.

Everyone’s opinion on these boards is as valid as any other without factual support.

Go your hardest spazz, I just ignore any hyperbole anyway.

I worry about Chris but I think he has done exactly what has been asked of him by the board. I doubt the board thought they’d win another premiership in the last 7 years unless we pinched one. Remember well that board members thought we’d lose the preseason gf in adel ‘06 and were annoyed at even being there(miss the preseason cups, better than the palava we have now).

But I do think the goals, objectives have just been changed. We want a different game style and I reckon we are finally able to gamble losing games in order win more than we lose if that makes sense. It’s felt for years like we are always just trying to win more h/a than we lose without much of an eye to what we do in the finals. That’s out the door now.




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Lol, yeah so true. Also yeah I hope your right TBH. I think we're still one year away from that though.

 

[Max Milburn]

Well last time a looked he signed with Richmond at 6.5m over 7. We can revisit that in another thread if required.

The next two paragraphs can just be simplified into you like the list its top 4 and premiership ready.



" I think its key to never assume anything"

" risk of overbalancing"

"Dangerwood day care "

" I'm happy to agree the competition will be fierce"

" even if some of the teams in contention change the overall number should be similar"

" if you have a list that's top 4 ( we definately do) why wouldnt you back it to the hilt"

" Most rebuilds won't end up in this level, and will take years to not end up at this level"

" just because the eagles won the flag doesn't mean they were on a flag path and we were not"

" we were on different paths that gave us a chance"

" just because those chances don't come up doesn't mean you were unable to win"

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Yeah towards the end I was just plain confused yeah geelong made the finals last season and if we get Dr Strange to bend some reality I suppose we were a chance to win it all. Would prefer to get a bit closer to call it an opportunity though.

Think we are finished longwinded way of saying you have geelong top 4 in premiership contention.

I think making the bottom of the 8 would be a great achievement with this list.

I'll just wait for the 22 games before I comment again.

4.03 in the morning Ray? Really?

 

[Ray Donovan]

its got nothing to do with 'being a man'. and to speak on his behalf, what would be the point of risking his account?

Landgraft has not once said 'geelong cannot miss the top 4'. he said theyre capable of making it. and its true, they are.

can they? yes. will they? who knows.

every year, there are more than 4 sides capable of making top 4. every year, there are more than a single side capable of winning the premiership.

do they all achieve what theyre capable of? no. does this mean they were never capable of it? also no.

it holds across all sports. every tennis grand slam, there are numerous players good enough to and capable of winning it. only one ever does.

i believe that is the thrust of his point.

its got nothing to do with 'being a man'. and to speak on his behalf, what would be the point of risking his account?

Landgraft has not once said 'geelong cannot miss the top 4'. he said theyre capable of making it. and its true, they are.

can they? yes. will they? who knows.

every year, there are more than 4 sides capable of making top 4. every year, there are more than a single side capable of winning the premiership.

do they all achieve what theyre capable of? no. does this mean they were never capable of it? also no.

it holds across all sports. every tennis grand slam, there are numerous players good enough to and capable of winning it. only one ever does.

i believe that is the thrust of his point.

its got nothing to do with 'being a man'. and to speak on his behalf, what would be the point of risking his account?

Landgraft has not once said 'geelong cannot miss the top 4'. he said theyre capable of making it. and its true, they are.

can they? yes. will they? who knows.

every year, there are more than 4 sides capable of making top 4. every year, there are more than a single side capable of winning the premiership.

do they all achieve what theyre capable of? no. does this mean they were never capable of it? also no.

it holds across all sports. every tennis grand slam, there are numerous players good enough to and capable of winning it. only one ever does.

i believe that is the thrust of his point.

Barmy if you want to continually throw a point of view at someone when they no longer care put up or shut up about it. I said im done needs 22 rounds has absolutely nothing to do with if geelong can make the top 4 I know it's entirely possible some simulations I had geelong going 15-6 which is mighty close.

He wants to berate my view point fine, the whole thing has just been a point scoring match I'm over it.

He wants to talk about his expert analysis that's fine I'm happy to back my point of view or leave it alone offer is on the table. In the pre season before a JLT it's all a huge guess.

I've stated no one is right, but if it gets thrown down my throat continually I'll offer it

 

[Ray Donovan]

4.03 in the morning Ray? Really?

On call buddy paid to do it literally

 

[Landgraft]

I'll bet my account with you.

If geelong make the top 4 I will delete my bigfooty account.

If geelong miss the 8 you delete your big footy account

(Anything in between we will call a draw)

Seems fair to me because you have done all your analysis. And my lack of analysis is a bit rude and shows a lack of effort.

Effort before a pre-season ball had bounced of course your eagle eye analysis is good.

So be a man and put your account up


*holds hand out*

Unlike you (apparently) I have no interest in deleting the account of someone if they disagree with me.

And when the analysis is on the age demographic of a list I don't think you need to wait for the ball to be bounced. Not unless they're rolling out those new Time Paradox Sherrins again for the first never.

 

[OddYears]

A lot of so-called Geelong supporters here WANT the Cats to fail, to justify their hatred of CS.

If Geelong wins another flag under Chris Scott, I am going to call some of you out.

Geelong Crazy in full flight I see hahaha

 

[Nickoo]

Lol, yeah so true. Also yeah I hope your right TBH. I think we're still one year away from that though.

Agreed. Am thinking this as well but we’ll be one of those improving sides. We could be a hawks and pinch one as the woods so nearly did last year.

Or we could slide losing not only the close ones we lost last but the ones like melb!


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[Partridge]

I worry about Chris but I think he has done exactly what has been asked of him by the board. I doubt the board thought they’d win another premiership in the last 7 years unless we pinched one. Remember well that board members thought we’d lose the preseason gf in adel ‘06 and were annoyed at even being there(miss the preseason cups, better than the palava we have now).

Agree with the rest of the post except this part. If the board didn't think we could win the flag in the last 7 years why did we bring in mature players? And why so many of them? We could have just kept the picks.

 

[Nickoo]

Agree with the rest of the post except this part. If the board didn't think we could win the flag in the last 7 years why did we bring in mature players? And why so many of them? We could have just kept the picks.

Yeah good point but I think they thought maybe ‘17 but the other years, nope. Maybe they thought they could pinch it.

I mean the aged player recruiting was to overcome the doughnut in age brackets of the list profile and to support paddy recruitment I thought. And we finished second in those two years but with no confidence in the finals. Beating the hawks in that QF however was just absolutely brilliant but that’s it. Then destroyed by the fast starters (swans, tigers, Coll etc.) which we never seem to be.


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[David the Cat]

A lot of so-called Geelong supporters here WANT the Cats to fail, to justify their hatred of CS.

If Geelong wins another flag under Chris Scott, I am going to call some of you out.

I would expect your efforts in doing so will be quickly deleted.

 

[Landgraft]

Interesting post and I do enjoy your posts.
The thrust of list balance by age differs a bit to my issues with where our list demands lie but in the end ..if we can find quality players with later picks then we should be able to cover the loss of our quality older players. The question is can we really find a Selwood type the way we have been trying to. Perhaps. Kelly is a better player than a R2 pick, Stewart 40's , Blitz was not even a draft pick etc etc. ..but do we have a preponderance of youth draft too late to really rely on them developing into elite top 50 / B&F / AA type players?
My fear is born out from the quality of players that generally comes drafting single figure draft picks... and if you plotted your graphs on drafted single figure picks thru our era of success... I suspect your plus 2022 graph may look bare in that column.

I don't think anyone can find a Selwood type... definitely I can't think of any player since then that has been able to compare in terms of impacting at senior level from day one and then consistently.

In some sense I think we've taken him a bit for granted... it's only once he's gone that we'll really have to face up to how much he did for us for all those years. How much of CS's ability to keep the team competitive has actually hinged on the ethos and hunger of a truly driven captain? Now there would be the scope for discrediting the coach. And you're definitely right that it will be very hard to find a new superstar, but that even applies to the teams with high draft picks. Maybe we'll just have to hope that Kelly can be flipped into a juicy enough asset to go after something big for the future. Or that Cocky has a minor miracle and can just play from here onwards, as on raw talent at least he probably could become something big.

On CS .. I think he originally was tasked with having transitioned the side and be ready to win another flag by 2017 /2018 ..but as usualy these thing do always take longer than estimated. I still remember listening to Costa defending Thompson around 05 or 06..whenre the frustration and patience after the rebuild pain was starting to wear thin.
I feel in a bit in 17 but definitely after 18 I think club has started to realise that we must rejig our bias towards youth and development ..but as yet they have not tried to attack the draft like they did back in 99. I suspect if we lost a Varcoe type now we probably would take the pick rather then trying to patch a hole with a mature player

In a sense I think that mission is accomplished... maybe we did not win the flag, but we were in a position where one was entirely possible from 2016-2018 (and hopefully still this year as well). The small pattern in some finals has created a sense of inevitability, but nothing in is really inevitable except the old death and taxes. Now we continue to rejig the list as part of the continuous rebuild model they've committed to, although probably a bit youth heavy at the moment. At least drafting kids is generally a good source of interest/hope for fans.

 

[cynical]

In a sense I think that mission is accomplished... maybe we did not win the flag, but we were in a position where one was entirely possible from 2016-2018 (and hopefully still this year as well). The small pattern in some finals has created a sense of inevitability, but nothing in is really inevitable except the old death and taxes. Now we continue to rejig the list as part of the continuous rebuild model they've committed to, although probably a bit youth heavy at the moment. At least drafting kids is generally a good source of interest/hope for fans.

Complete and utter failure = mission accomplished

I guess were we just 3 standard deviations away from a premiership, which is good enough for some

a team that gets smashed in first quarters of multiple finals is not in a position to win a flag

 

[Landgraft]

Complete and utter failure = mission accomplished

I guess were we just 3 standard deviations away from a premiership, which is good enough for some

a team that gets smashed in first quarters of multiple finals is not in a position to win a flag

Teams can get blown out, it happens. I think the strong emotions it provokes in fans can cause the significance of those games to be heavily overstated.

It isn't remotely as if I don't want a premiership. But I've also accepted that no coach can guarantee you one either. In terms of preparing a team that could have won, I think Scotty more or less has achieved it - even if it didn't work out.

 

[cynical]

Teams can get blown out, it happens. I think the strong emotions it provokes in fans can cause the significance of those games to be heavily overstated.

It isn't remotely as if I don't want a premiership. But I've also accepted that no coach can guarantee you one either. In terms of preparing a team that could have won, I think Scotty more or less has achieved it - even if it didn't work out.

Teams can get blown away on the odd occasion and bounce back. However in our situation it wasn't a one of, it is a pattern of behaviour due to our structural and personnel deficiencies (players who lack skills and poise under pressure).

A lot of teams get blown away when they run out of gas, we get blown away when the game starts.

We are basically a seal vs a killer whale when it comes to finals. It's over at the start then they just play with us for a couple of quarters before finishing the job. The is an illusion that we could have won (or for the seal to escape).

You need to win 3 finals in a row to win a flag, we can barely win 1. We havent been close in a prelim since 2013 so I dont get where this "could have won" comes from.

Collingwood could have won the GF last year. Richmond could have. GWS a small chance. Melbourne, Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong all no chance.

 

[Frappe]

Teams can get blown out, it happens. I think the strong emotions it provokes in fans can cause the significance of those games to be heavily overstated.

It isn't remotely as if I don't want a premiership. But I've also accepted that no coach can guarantee you one either. In terms of preparing a team that could have won, I think Scotty more or less has achieved it - even if it didn't work out.

The fact it’s happened 3 years in a row hasn’t helped.
Nothing worse building into the game and by 1/4 time it’s over.

 

[Mr Blicavs]

A lot of so-called Geelong supporters here WANT the Cats to fail, to justify their hatred of CS.

If Geelong wins another flag under Chris Scott, I am going to call some of you out.

What rot! Even the most ardent Scott haters recognise if Scott succeeds, the club succeeds. Ive never in my entire time on BigFooty, seen anyone say the want the club to fail.
Youre not calling anyone out... youre just making an ass of yourself
Log off!

 

[you pick one]

Agree with the rest of the post except this part. If the board didn't think we could win the flag in the last 7 years why did we bring in mature players? And why so many of them? We could have just kept the picks.

I could be wrong but I've had the feeling it has had a lot to do with putting bums on seats and looking relevant(TOP 8 FINISHES) until the last of the money is locked in for the final stage of the revamp of KP.