2019 planning

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Shadow89 said:
Keystone agony Have thought a lot about the above (way too much during my holidays, haha), and about the comparisons between players versus their price point. It's interesting. After looking over everything of Selby's from his spreadsheet, evaluating all the different possibilities when it comes to build structures and taking into account last year's prowess along with this years rule changes, one thing becomes readily apparent to me - this year is completely different to any other.

**warning** - long ass ramblings below

To start off with, we have never seen anything like last year's trade period. Players like Wingard, May, Hogan, Neale, Lobb, Mitch McGovern, Beams, Shiel, Dahlhaus, Rohan, Scully, Polec, Hall, Lyons, Pittard, Tom Lynch, Hanneberry, Hickey, Miles, have completely changed the fabric of how we look at the competition this year. With the arrival of all these new players, comes uncertainty in roles and role openings for others. While 2017 saw Dev Smith, Charlie Cameron, Ablett, Stringer, Wilson, Gibbs, and Weller change clubs, these players had very little effect on their teams in 2018(with the exception of Smith, Ablett and Gibbs to an extent). 2019 will be completely different IMO.

Next, this is the first draft in the last decade that has been touted as a 'super draft.' With the changing of the guard with the departure of all these players, comes the arrival of all the new draftees and clubs looking to capitalise early on their talent. Walsh has been touted as similar to Selwood in his draft year and Lukosius and Rankine have been touted as 'once in a generation players.' Given the mass exodus of players from clubs like Fremantle, Gold Coast, GWS, Port Adelaide and Geelong, spots in different positions have opened up for these draftees, as well as players within the club looking for more opportunities.

It's not just draftees that are being given a shot, as the emergence of Tim Kelly has prompted the Pre-Season Supplementary Selection (or PSS for short). The PSS has enabled, for the first time ever, the ability for mature age players to enter a club and replace injured stars like Titch and Doch. This opens up the door for players like Michael Gibbons and (possibly) Luke Meadows. Add to that the changing idea around supporting younger players with mature bodies who have played senior footy before (Collins, Cavarra, Parker, Hind, Atkins, Fort etc.) and you end up with far more players who could score higher immediately, mitigating the risk when choosing them at basement price.

Mature-age draftees aren't the only players that are in abundance this season, as fallen premiums/breakout players are everywhere. Taken into account the aforementioned, clubs are looking to expose their younger talented players to more midfield time, whilst also negating the effect of injuries, lost players, or experimental role changes. Future stars like Taranto, Brayshaw, Parfitt, Witherden, Gresham, Worpel, Cerra, MccLuggage and co. are all a chance of taking midfield spots from ageing stars, as coaches look to usher through a period of change whilst staying competitive. Couple this with fallen premiums like Brouch, Williams, T Lynch, JJK, Dusty, Adams, Libba, Rocky etc. and you end up with a different array of choices for your setup.

Lastly, the new rule changes for the season. While some are playing up the kick in side of things and others are downplaying it, the biggest impact the rule changes look to be having, are that of the actual setups that teams employ. This is to say, that without the ability to negate other players through sheer numbers, coaches are looking at changing the players they place in the middle, to exploit the new rules the most. This means that midfield setups (which score you the most points) could be completely different to any other year based on what coaches think will win them the most ball out of the middle. A key example of this was an interview with Duncan last week that hinted at a midfield setup including Narkle, Kelly and Danger, due to their explosive power out of the middle.

With the culmination of all of the above, this long ass essay reaches its main point - strategies employed in previous years (like guns and rooks) may not work this year at all. In comparing literally every player on Selby's list (plus my own hunches) that has been touted as a possible winner, I always seem to notice that nearly every high end player from this year is pretty much at their max when it comes to what they're priced at. To explain this, I've used an a few players from defence below to compare with their previous price point at this time last year/other mids:

I'll start off with Lloyd, Whitfield and Llaird, as they're ones that although I would like on my team, I can't justify their price point compared to last year/similar mids.

Laird: Priced at 782K (priced at 707K last season)

Lloyd: Priced at 738K (priced at 663K last season)

Whitfield: Priced at 726K (priced at 690K last season)


All 3 of the above players will most likely be top 6 given their output in previous seasons, but it's not that I'm concerned about. What concerns me, is how their price is close to their max in terms of what they can score/similar priced mids that can score way higher.

If I reference the above 3 again using this formula, you start to see how their price compares to similar priced mids:

Laird 782K / Similarly priced: Ross, Oliver, Cripps, Cogs, Brayshaw, Beams, M Crouch, Hunter, Dev Smith, Danger, Yeo, Treloar, J Kelly etc.

Lloyd and Whitfield 738K/726K / Similarly priced: Merrett, Duncan, Fyfe, Neale, Zorko, Adams etc.


So although they'll be the top for the position, the situation is much different to last year. Where there were only a handful of players who registered around the 'fallen premo' mark vs the defenders last season, this season the aforementioned 3 are verging into 'premo'/'uber premo' territory for around most likely the same output. It should also be noted that Laird's 108 season last year was one where Smith was out for the whole season. When Smith returned, his average dropped to 88 for those two games. He'll most likely drop back to around a 100 or so average again, which would make him 80K or so overpriced. Lloyd should probably maintain his, as should Whitfield, but he's the only one of the 3 that is slightly justifiable. Even then, I could have Merrett for 2K less, which is hard to justify.

Food for thought for anyone who was thinking about how all of the off-season activity might affect this season. Defence is the hardest for me to nail down at this point, as I think Newman could be big, as could Witherden. Williams was 600K only a couple of years back, so he's got a chance to be top 6 as well, as has Luke Ryan. It's the cash saved by not having some of the big dogs, that makes it most enticing to me to not play them. If I can get away with not having Laird, Lloyd and Macrae and the role/club changes/injuries lead to fallen premos like Adams, Rocky, Newman having a similar output, then I can save a ton of cash (1 MIL at this point) and use that to pick all the right premos when everyone else hits their peak.

It should be noted, that nearly every high end premo from last year fell in price or stayed at a similar price, bar Titch, Grundy, Laird and Gawn. Everyone else was either a fallen premo, breakout player or player who got a new role change. I see that trend continuing this year, based on all of the aforementioned.

Of course this could all be wrong haha, but this is based on the observations I've made, comments from coaches, evaluations of players by Selby and commentary from media commentators surrounding players, their roles and the effect of the rule changes; so there is some semblance of a basis.

Happy reading everyone!
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Excellent write up mate!!
 

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VSTone said:
Couldn't sleep last night Shadow89 ? It all makes for an interesting comp. this year. So many new variables that may play a part. It's time for a big footy victor.
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Haha VSTone, spot on.

Yeah that's what I think. The stars have aligned to make this the most unpredictable year since the inception of the competition. I would genuinely be happy if someone in our little community took the ultimate prize away. I think we should all work together this year and if someone is pushing that top 10, then lend all the support and advice we can, so that we can all collectively be part of fantasy glory :)
 
Shadow89 said:
Haha VSTone, spot on.

Yeah that's what I think. The stars have aligned to make this the most unpredictable year since the inception of the competition. I would genuinely be happy if someone in our little community took the ultimate prize away. I think we should all work together this year and if someone is pushing that top 10, then lend all the support and advice we can, so that we can all collectively be part of fantasy glory :)
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I hope so. We really do have a great fantasy community here. Been a crazy active offseason since basically October!
 
I feel like I'm forced to start Cripps solely for the VC loophole in round 1...(no other real captaincy options besides Grundy).
 
bol316 said:
Yeah i dunno what some consider to be mid pricers technically but i am buying Kelly expecting to keep him
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Generally a good rule of thumb for premos is:

DEF: 575+
FWD: 575+
MID: 700+
RUC: 600+

Anything lower and it's a fallen premo or a mid-pricer. Of course it doesn't work for every player, but generally that's about the range from what I've seen
 
PAFC27 said:
I feel like I'm forced to start Cripps solely for the VC loophole in round 1...(no other real captaincy options besides Grundy).
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I'm just saving 100K and going with Dusty. If he's no good, I can just trade him out the next week anyway/I can captain Grundy or Danger with the loophole. Cripps has been in and out of my side though...just depends on how Dusty goes during JLT
 

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FlowersByIrene said:
Yep, looking incredibly thin, may need to load up heavier on forwards than usual to take advantage of the rookies available in the midfield.
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With plenty loading up on defenders. It'd be interesting to see somebody go the other way and see how they fare.

Imagine if you pick a Kelly and Billings for example at F4-6 and they end up averaging close to 100?
 
Something that concerns me, is when trading begins and we need to swap a dpp def > fwd line and make a trade, will there be a trade window that handles this? this season. surely yes?
 
PAFC27 said:
With plenty loading up on defenders. It'd be interesting to see somebody go the other way and see how they fare.

Imagine if you pick a Kelly and Billings for example at F4-6 and they end up averaging close to 100?
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I think people are loading up in defenc enow because it's a dream scenario with all the rookies available. Obviously when the team selections come out before Round 1 we will all need to scramble to ensure our rookies are right to go. Personally i'm going to take a heavier forward line approach to prepare for a scenrio where there are barely any forward rookies.

Currently i'm sitting with Danger, Smith, Dunkley and Setters and two rookies. But i've got Goldy in the ruck who i'm not tied to increidbly. If someone like a Sean Darcy or Tim English looks good for Round 1 i may consider cutting Goldy down and trying to push a rookie up to Billings or Worpel or Kelly.
 
PAFC27 said:
I hope so. We really do have a great fantasy community here. Been a crazy active offseason since basically October!
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The last few season it was so dead on here that i didn't even post. I remember three seaosns ago it was pumping though! I think RDT cannabalised the user base significantly. Now it's back to the glory days and I'm happy to be a part of it where I can. I'm no expert but i've had consistent top 2000 finishes the last three seasons. Hoping that the added discourse and the added research i'm doing can push me into the top 100 this season. That will be my goal. Fingers crossed I make it there.
 
FlowersByIrene said:
I think people are loading up in defenc enow because it's a dream scenario with all the rookies available. Obviously when the team selections come out before Round 1 we will all need to scramble to ensure our rookies are right to go. Personally i'm going to take a heavier forward line approach to prepare for a scenrio where there are barely any forward rookies.

Currently i'm sitting with Danger, Smith, Dunkley and Setters and two rookies. But i've got Goldy in the ruck who i'm not tied to increidbly. If someone like a Sean Darcy or Tim English looks good for Round 1 i may consider cutting Goldy down and trying to push a rookie up to Billings or Worpel or Kelly.
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It would be nice if Meadows comes in as a MID/FWD rook for the Hawks
 
PAFC27 said:
I feel like I'm forced to start Cripps solely for the VC loophole in round 1...(no other real captaincy options besides Grundy).
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I love Cripps as a player and as a fantasy player and I expect him to be the No.3 midfielder in the game this year and well and truly in the top 8. But whether you need to start him just for the loophole is another question. I reckon players like Ross, Crouch and Brayshaw have a bit of extra value in them and may be better value adds at the start of the season.
 
FlowersByIrene said:
I think people are loading up in defenc enow because it's a dream scenario with all the rookies available. Obviously when the team selections come out before Round 1 we will all need to scramble to ensure our rookies are right to go. Personally i'm going to take a heavier forward line approach to prepare for a scenrio where there are barely any forward rookies.

Currently i'm sitting with Danger, Smith, Dunkley and Setters and two rookies. But i've got Goldy in the ruck who i'm not tied to increidbly. If someone like a Sean Darcy or Tim English looks good for Round 1 i may consider cutting Goldy down and trying to push a rookie up to Billings or Worpel or Kelly.
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This is pretty much what I'll be doing (prior to JLT). Currently running a 4 premo forward line with Setters and a rookie. Have Darcy as my second ruck which has allowed me to do this. Have to go risky somewhere I guess
 
Looking into the crystal ball with the new zone rules and the potential for some beltings to be handed out, the power forward might emerge as good value again with all those juicy +12's or is it +13's (4 for a mark, Kick 3 goal 6).
 
FlowersByIrene said:
I think people are loading up in defenc enow because it's a dream scenario with all the rookies available. Obviously when the team selections come out before Round 1 we will all need to scramble to ensure our rookies are right to go. Personally i'm going to take a heavier forward line approach to prepare for a scenrio where there are barely any forward rookies.

Currently i'm sitting with Danger, Smith, Dunkley and Setters and two rookies. But i've got Goldy in the ruck who i'm not tied to increidbly. If someone like a Sean Darcy or Tim English looks good for Round 1 i may consider cutting Goldy down and trying to push a rookie up to Billings or Worpel or Kelly.
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JDWCE said:
This is pretty much what I'll be doing (prior to JLT). Currently running a 4 premo forward line with Setters and a rookie. Have Darcy as my second ruck which has allowed me to do this. Have to go risky somewhere I guess
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Darcy is playing round 1 unless he gets injured. Sandilands is TBC with a calf. We may not see him for months if at all.
 
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