Racing February Daily Punt- The Winx Farewell Tour

[IKnowtheDog]

TB was all over O’Malley’s there. Nice run by the second horse too might be one to follow

 

[TBellicious]

God almighty it's actually happening

Unsure if I should be more or less confident with my antepost bet

 

[Slipps]

Loving Gaby and Shotmaker could be in doubt
https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-raci...avourite/bd49be49-1675-438e-bd91-f754939dbe16

 

[AvantGardener]

Unsure if I should be more or less confident with my antepost bet

Same. Not confident

 

[Keystone agony]

If I Am Immortal is at anything over 7s let alone 9s everyone should be on board.

That and Alizee serious serious talents

 

[Keystone agony]

The way i see it and im no expert and i understanding its a 'different race'

But Loving Gaby at a lesser weight does over Lanigera, Swan Island and Art collection by 1,2 and 3 lengths respectivily

Microphone races the same 3 horses and does them.over by an additional 8 lengths each whilst cruising to the line at a higher weight (Not that i care about weight over a 1000 sprint)

Guess who does over Microphone with relative ease..... I Am Immortal

It dictates the run and i struggle to see who runs past it unless a massive head wind... laving gaby certainly doesn't at 5.50 odds

 

[FallingLiefs]

Loving Gaby isn't the threat though.

it's $3.80 out to $6.50 and still going. don't get too technical, prelude (F) should be winning and are super backable odds. Catch Me ?? if it can recover form.

Lyre is $11 into $6.00 and that's still reasonable value IMO. Personally still keen on Athiri wide caulfield first time for NSW horse happy to say it can improve.

 

[Keystone agony]

Loving Gaby isn't the threat though.

it's $3.80 out to $6.50 and still going. don't get too technical, prelude (F) should be winning and are super backable odds. Catch Me ?? if it can recover form.

Lyre is $11 into $6.00 and that's still reasonable value IMO. Personally still keen on Athiri wide caulfield first time for NSW horse happy to say it can improve.

Agree there the 3 i like the most i just think at 9.50 its well overs. Maybe doeant find the extra 100m aswell as a 2kg lighter Arithri or Lyre. Arithri great value aswell

 

[54Dogs]

After last night's debut Jumbo Ozaki will be the new spruik horse.

Interesting to see how high they set the bar next start. Won't be a betting proposition, when they win like that they're always too short next start in town.

Weak field but nice turn of foot to put 9L on them in 200m

 

[iluvparis]

Same. Not confident

Horse is going to be a bigger problem for that bet than the jockey

 

[iluvparis]

If I Am Immortal is at anything over 7s let alone 9s everyone should be on board.

That and Alizee serious serious talents

??? It's been trading double figures for most of the week.

 

[iluvparis]

Loving Gaby isn't the threat though.

it's $3.80 out to $6.50 and still going. don't get too technical, prelude (F) should be winning and are super backable odds. Catch Me ?? if it can recover form.

Lyre is $11 into $6.00 and that's still reasonable value IMO. Personally still keen on Athiri wide caulfield first time for NSW horse happy to say it can improve.

What ever you think of the relative formlines (and let's face it - despite all the speed fappers thinking their ratings are FACTS it is largely a lot of guess work at this stage), the fact IAI was longer than Catch Me at stages given their relative performances last start was completely stupid.

 

[AvantGardener]

Horse is going to be a bigger problem for that bet than the jockey

Ok. So who's the winner? I have Graff and Osborne Bulls on top

 

[iluvparis]

Ok. So who's the winner? I have Graff and Osborne Bulls on top

- Not a 3yo
- Can't see anything from the Lightning improving past the top 2 there
- I will wait and see who else runs

 

[AvantGardener]

- Not a 3yo
- Can't see anything from the Lightning improving past the top 2 there
- I will wait and see who else runs

Do you ever got a sore bum from sitting on the fence?

 

[come on oliver]

Do you ever got a sore bum from sitting on the fence?

To be fair the bloke declares plenty of his top picks

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Why is Almond Eye out of Dubai Turf betting?

 

[FallingLiefs]

What ever you think of the relative formlines (and let's face it - despite all the speed fappers thinking their ratings are FACTS it is largely a lot of guess work at this stage), the fact IAI was longer than Catch Me at stages given their relative performances last start was completely stupid.

well I don't do VIC anymore but fairly easy to check the 3 1100m races on the day, i am immortal will need to find the rail to win based on being around 3L inferior, doesn't mean he can't. to be honest these are clearly the best betting races on the calendar. separate form lines, hype clashing and people blatantly avoid times. i agree "ratings" are generally guesswork and it's 99% poor guesswork of the people who openly share what they gave them as the people that know what they are doing don't.

What i will say is Nature Strip's times says this is an open year, below average, the fillies are ahead from the prelude i'd be keen on fillies or alternate formlines with a strong idea that the horse will get 1200m.

 

[iluvparis]

Do you ever got a sore bum from sitting on the fence?

Lol me sitting on the fence? Surely you are taking the piss. I've just told you Graff categorically won't win!

 

[iluvparis]

What i will say is Nature Strip's times says this is an open year, below average, the fillies are ahead from the prelude i'd be keen on fillies or alternate formlines with a strong idea that the horse will get 1200m.

Now AG this is a classic fence sit given fillies make up 2/3 of the field

 

[bigdog43]

For what it's worth, I don't have Nature Strip in the top five.

1. Santa Ana Lane
2. Redzel
3. In Her Time

they are clearly the top three, and I think Osborne Bulls will jump into that bracket this autumn.

Redzel has 14 wins from 29 starts and SAL has 9 from 31. Oh and Redzel has won a lazy $12 million more, know which horse I'd rather.

 

[come on oliver]

How many runs for the Autumn sun this prep? $10 for 4+ dumb bet?

 

[FallingLiefs]

Now AG this is a classic fence sit given fillies make up 2/3 of the field

declared my hand a solid 9-10 days ago, just saying i wouldn't talk people out of say Andrassy Avenue or a few others for the record i'll be on Athiri and had i seen the $11's for Lyre i would have taken that then and there.

 

[iluvparis]

How many runs for the Autumn sun this prep? $10 for 4+ dumb bet?

Hard to come up with a 4 race program that avoids both Winx and Handicaps (where you should get a decent price in the latter anyway).

 

[Chism]

Keep it on topic without the personal crap.