Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac
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With your recent discussion on KPP and only drafting the good ones I am interested in your philosophy on what you would do regarding ruckmen and if you would draft or trade for them?
I see rucks as being the most traded players in the comp and clubs seem to be making big investments in them. If they are drafted at 18 or 19 they tend to spend 2-3 years on a list before a debut and if they do make it to being AFL standard they usually have a high chance of injury and time on the sidelines and although the first few years the salaries are not huge in terms of salary cap it is a list spot and money that could be used on retaining best 22 players
I see rucks as being the most traded players in the comp and clubs seem to be making big investments in them. If they are drafted at 18 or 19 they tend to spend 2-3 years on a list before a debut and if they do make it to being AFL standard they usually have a high chance of injury and time on the sidelines and although the first few years the salaries are not huge in terms of salary cap it is a list spot and money that could be used on retaining best 22 players
There was a video of him last year playing a school game iirc. Kicked a big bag and instantly I knew he was my favourite player for this year. Kid has weapons.
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This years draft doesn't look that strong
Knightmare
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Trading has historically been a great way to go about securing ruckmen and in recent years we've seen some good ones change hands for diddly squat. So it's definitely a great way to go about getting a good one.
Otherwise through the draft the rookie draft has historically been a great way to get ruckmen and would be another strong consideration.
Otherwise in the national draft they'd need to be clear best available's to spike my interest eg. Brodie Grundy in 2012 being an obvious example of this as a consensus top 5 selection being available in the late teens.
Overall like with KPPs I'd look to have few ruckmen. 3 pure ruckmen (including developing and ideally in a spread of age ranges) is plenty and other than that there should be at least 1 KPPs who can fill in through there or present a relieving ruck option, at least 2 if none of the other ruckmen are mutli-positional. It's just about quality - picking the right ones and as with KPPs looking for superiority of quality by position where possible and not holding onto average depth types.
I like Serong a lot. Has a lot of explosion and power. Looks a top 10 pick at this stage.
I like the top 5. Not like last year where it's an all-time great top 5.
Top 20 is fine. Probably not the depth of most years. But we'll see who rise over the course of the year.
Knightmare
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2016 AFL Redraft - the real top 20: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/26057542/afl-draft-doerre-reselecting-top-20-2016-draft
*A surprise number one, but in my view one in the long run who can earn that position.
*A surprise number one, but in my view one in the long run who can earn that position.
Knightmare
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Only have time for the u18s of the juniors.
As one person, U18s, state leagues and AFL level is as much as I can fit in on any given weekend.
Still early days. I see some more prospects coming good from that group. But without those 3-4 years development, most drafts look average.
I agree on you with the ideal set up being a experienced first ruck in the 26-30 age, developed around the 22-26 and then two part time rucks as either a forward ruck and a rookie and with the rule changes this year I can see some clubs being caught short in this department as that forward ruck has became a very important position in the 22 and maybe this will enable Lachie Keefe to add to his 56 games
Knightmare
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One team I like the ruck stocks of is Fremantle.
Sandilands as the lead ruckman. Lobb an ideal relieving ruckman who plays mostly forward. Darcy coming through as the young one who is seriously good.
After those guys, Fremantle only need one of Lloyd Meek/Scott Jones and a Taberner who could relieve through there if Lobb is missing. And that's plenty.
Collingwood would actually be completely fine in my view with just Grundy. If Cox is there, he can be dragged from the front half. With Moore there, he can be dragged from defence. I don't believe they even need Roughead who isn't quite of the standard I'd ideally like. Just having that three with Grundy still young and with durability and Cox and Moore able to play the position in their own right. I'd feel that even is more than enough - though the KPP stocks at both ends are badly lacking quality. But even so they could still role with Dunn/Scharenberg in defence and De Goey/Stephenson up front.
Just give me quality ruckmen, quality talls and I don't need a lot of them and can use more list positions on other spots where there is normally greater versatility and higher probability for players to find roles and be meaningful difference makers.
It's more when you get the likes of Jack Lukosius where he could play KPP/wing/flank etc where you can carry those extras. Same with N.Riewoldt/Westhoff and those other kinds of versatile types who don't make your setup feel too tall and slow.
Sandilands as the lead ruckman. Lobb an ideal relieving ruckman who plays mostly forward. Darcy coming through as the young one who is seriously good.
After those guys, Fremantle only need one of Lloyd Meek/Scott Jones and a Taberner who could relieve through there if Lobb is missing. And that's plenty.
Collingwood would actually be completely fine in my view with just Grundy. If Cox is there, he can be dragged from the front half. With Moore there, he can be dragged from defence. I don't believe they even need Roughead who isn't quite of the standard I'd ideally like. Just having that three with Grundy still young and with durability and Cox and Moore able to play the position in their own right. I'd feel that even is more than enough - though the KPP stocks at both ends are badly lacking quality. But even so they could still role with Dunn/Scharenberg in defence and De Goey/Stephenson up front.
Just give me quality ruckmen, quality talls and I don't need a lot of them and can use more list positions on other spots where there is normally greater versatility and higher probability for players to find roles and be meaningful difference makers.
It's more when you get the likes of Jack Lukosius where he could play KPP/wing/flank etc where you can carry those extras. Same with N.Riewoldt/Westhoff and those other kinds of versatile types who don't make your setup feel too tall and slow.
Very surprised with your number 1 and he does look good so hopefully he can take another step this year and make the ruck position his own at the dockers
I rate this draft as providing good calibre A/B+ players although no real out and out stars IMO although a few more should take another step this year and Florent was good to watch in the trial v the Giants last week
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Any insight into why you rate English so low (i.e. outside the top 20, and lower than his initial draft position of 19)?
I disagree there, Taranto i think will become a star, McGrath is tearing up the track for Essendon. Berry and McCluggage still have a few years yet to reach their prime and made some huge leaps last year. I think Florent is set for a big year aswell.
If you're lucky you'll get one or two guys really step it up in their second year, as the likes of Oliver, Cripps or Bont did, but they're notable in their rarity. Generally it takes a bit longer - Heeney, Merrett and Matt Crouch announced themselves in their third years, and Kelly, Brayshaw and De Goey in their fourth, for example.
Taranto is the closest thus far in terms of putting that full year together, though McCluggage's end to the season was excellent, McGrath's first year obviously solid, and plenty of others have shown serious potential in flashes. For mine that whole 2016 first round is littered with talent, with the vast majority already comfortably best 22, and I'll be very surprised if several don't make serious waves this year.
Taranto is the closest thus far in terms of putting that full year together, though McCluggage's end to the season was excellent, McGrath's first year obviously solid, and plenty of others have shown serious potential in flashes. For mine that whole 2016 first round is littered with talent, with the vast majority already comfortably best 22, and I'll be very surprised if several don't make serious waves this year.
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Knightmare
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I'm looking at Darcy as something like Shane Mumford. His first season was statistically stronger than Grundy's first and his second was competitive with Grundy's second also. Sandilands probably has another season leading Fremantle's ruck division, but seeing a ruckman so good already. There just aren't other good young ruckmen who look anywhere near as good.
As for stars. Darcy/Taranto look it to me. Berry/McCluggage/McGrath the chances. SPP if he puts in the work and cleans up parts of his game. But I'd agree there are other years with more convincing top ends and more star power.
English was a very strong consideration. I see the draft from 11-30 to be pretty even honestly and English could for now be placed anywhere in that range.
I see him taking over the number one ruck mantle for Western Bulldogs this year. He's developing with his contested marking and scoreboard impact better than it was. A more competitive tap ruckman and stronger body than he was.
I see him largely as something like Josh Fraser. A good ruckman - probably not a dominant tap ruckman or physical presence but gets around the ground and has good skills. Appropriate for selection anywhere 15-25 if he reaches roughly that level - feeling that a lot of those I have 11 onwards have a lot of unfulfilled upside of those less developed types.
Hard to do a rating for these players only 2 years into there careers and it would be interesting to do some kind of evaluation to see what patterns happen as the players develop. For example talls taking until year 4/5/6 to really show their ceiling
Knightmare
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That's part of the challenge, but also part of the fun of it.
That's always why my order is very much based on what I'm projecting/speculating rather than purely going on who has done more two years in.
Thumbs up for putting Darcy at #1. Suspect a lot of people haven't seen how talented he is. He has started to transform his body shape this pre-season so hoping he has a cracking year.
No KPPs in your top #20? Thought Brennan Cox might sneak in ahead of quite a few in the #11-#20 positions? Better numbers than Charlie Curnow at the same age - would have completely smashed his first two seasons if his goal kicking was more accurate. Don't think any of the other KPPs have come close to him from that draft.
Quite a few good rebounding defenders from the pool with Witherden, Stewart etc. Thought Luke Ryan might be very close to top #20 as well?
We (Freo) nailed that draft... (Logue's back to full fitness and having a great pre-season as well) but we needed to because we were woeful with our 2015 drafting (Tucker and Nyhuis the only ones left).
Knightmare
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Perhaps I'm overexcited about Darcy, but would I be wrong to think he can become something like Mumford? I'm seeing a lot of the same size and physical presence around stoppages. Excellent tap ruckman but then follows up exceptionally well - tackling, winning the ball. He's good. Can get better around the ground and continue to get better forward of centre. But his strengths are already established strengths which you don't normally see from ruckmen at this age/stage.
Brennan Cox a strong consideration and one with another year of improvement can earn his way in. He was top 25 and along with English and a few others was stiff and looks a long term player. I'm not seeing Curnow but then again I didn't see his 4 goal game v Adelaide.
Luke Ryan another who was close. Had he not been those few years older probably would have been inside that top 25. Again, another I like and he's a very good player already. He'll be a best 30 player from 2016.
Logue can come good. I'm wondering whether he will just be a role player or something more. But again, he's looking like a top 30 player from 2016 and a long term piece.
Tucker/Nuhuis were 2015 draft. Sam Collins looks like Fremantle's best pick from that draft, and he's now possibly making a go of it with Gold Coast this year if allowed the freedom to intercept and rebound.
2016 though was an excellent national draft for Fremantle. Darcy (38), Cox (41), Ryan (67) all excellent value choices and Logue (8) while not likely to be the 8th looks a long term player. Fremantle like Brisbane could pretty easily be seen as draft winners with the value both clubs secured in the national draft.
Yeah very physical and knows how to kick a goal from outside 50 as well. Three 40+ hitout games already in his 15 game career so far. He's held his own or even won against some very experienced rucks, just struggled to run out 4 quarters at times - and that was with a pretty amateur body shape. Now he is shaping that properly and improving his endurance he'll just keep improving. And having Sandi as his personal mentor is pretty helpful as well. Lloyd Meek is progressing really well as well - looked pretty good up against Darcy and Lobb at the intraclub last week.
Yeah Brennan could be anything - thought he deserved a spot in your #20 over someone like Venables
A bit like Darcy, has so much natural talent and performed amazingly for a KPP at just 18/19yo but also has a sub-optimal body shape. If he gets his nutrition/discipline aligned he will be amazing. Some on the Freo board rate him as our best youngster - he reads the ball as well as anyone on our list, and has an uncanny knack of turning his opponent inside out to create something from nothing. He's been training down back this pre-season with the arrival of Hogan and Lobb but some prefer him over Taberner up forward. It all feels a bit surreal having so many talls at Freo atm.We had him matched up on Hogan, Lobb and Taberner at times during our intraclub and he was pretty unanimously rated top 4 on the field. Think the plan is as a KPD to help out Hamling and Pearce. We just want him to have a good season after sitting out last year.
Knightmare
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Yeah very physical and knows how to kick a goal from outside 50 as well. Three 40+ hitout games already in his 15 game career so far. He's held his own or even won against some very experienced rucks, just struggled to run out 4 quarters at times - and that was with a pretty amateur body shape. Now he is shaping that properly and improving his endurance he'll just keep improving. And having Sandi as his personal mentor is pretty helpful as well. Lloyd Meek is progressing really well as well - looked pretty good up against Darcy and Lobb at the intraclub last week.
Yeah Brennan could be anything - thought he deserved a spot in your #20 over someone like Venables
We had him matched up on Hogan, Lobb and Taberner at times during our intraclub and he was pretty unanimously rated top 4 on the field. Think the plan is as a KPD to help out Hamling and Pearce. We just want him to have a good season after sitting out last year.
I'm also liking everything I'm hearing/reading about how Darcy approaches the game. Taking notes on all opponents, knowing how to approach them at ruck contests. Being diligent in his preparation/training and putting in the work. Improving rapidly from being a ruckman I didn't rate in his draft year to being the best first year ruckman on performance in the past 20+ years on a per game stat basis. And as you say having Sandilands to learn off is invaluable.
Meek can play so it doesn't surprise me to hear he's progressing well and looks another viable option.
Venables I'm too intrigued by the attributes and upside (can he be another Shuey with his explosiveness and ball winner?), but on what he's done already, Cox has done more. This year will be an interesting year for Cox in terms of where he fits. Hogan and Lobb both coming in. McCarthy is talented and while he was poor last year still has time to turn things around and Taberner is another I don't hate. Does Cox get forced back? Does he hold his spot this year? I'm interested to see how all that plays out. But he's off to a good start and going much better than I certainly had projected. Down back does he play alongside Pearce/Hamling or ahead of them? I'd like to see another year of footy before being committed to Cox and his long term prospects over that other 20. But he's right there in the conversation. He's just not yet ahead for mine. But positive to hear he is looking the goods at training and in intraclub.
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From the Dockers, I'm keen on following the progress of:
Crowden.
Dixon.
Meek.
Jones.
Giro.
Banfield.
Darcy.
North.
Carter.
Valente.
Meanwhile, at Sydney, I wonder what a forward line of Papley, Hayward and Dawson looks like with Buddy being 32 years old.
Crowden.
Dixon.
Meek.
Jones.
Giro.
Banfield.
Darcy.
North.
Carter.
Valente.
Meanwhile, at Sydney, I wonder what a forward line of Papley, Hayward and Dawson looks like with Buddy being 32 years old.
From 2016 you need to add Duman as a good get as well. From the Rookie List, sitting in our best 22 with upside to come.
I think Logue will be better than a role player. His physicality and attitude are going to give him a really combative edge.
I agree with your comments regarding our nicely balanced ruck division, and think we have the KPPs similarly balanced now, without any of them nailing down an A-grade rating as of yet (perhaps Hogan). There is however quality and upside.
Defence; Pearce, Hamling, Logue, Cox/Swingman.
Forward; Hogan, Lobb, Taberner, McCarthy, Dixon, Cox/Swingman.
I think Logue will be better than a role player. His physicality and attitude are going to give him a really combative edge.
I agree with your comments regarding our nicely balanced ruck division, and think we have the KPPs similarly balanced now, without any of them nailing down an A-grade rating as of yet (perhaps Hogan). There is however quality and upside.
Defence; Pearce, Hamling, Logue, Cox/Swingman.
Forward; Hogan, Lobb, Taberner, McCarthy, Dixon, Cox/Swingman.
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