Analysis What We Do When We Win

[Cupido4lyfe]

On the eve of the new campaign, I thought I'd throw out some stats from last season.

This was the difference in each major stat in our wins vs our losses last season:

DISPOSALS	+16pg
KICKS	+23pg
HANDBALLS	-7pg
CLEARANCES	+4pg
INSIDE 50	+12pg
MARKS INSIDE 50	+3pg
CONTESTED POSSESSIONS	+8pg
TACKLES	+10pg

Our opponents difference in our wins vs our losses is as follows:

DISPOSALS	-27pg
KICKS	-23pg
HANDBALLS	-3pg
CLEARANCES	0pg
INSIDE 50	-6pg
MARKS INSIDE 50	-4pg
CONTESTED POSSESSIONS	-7pg
TACKLES	-6pg

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After calculating the total games by each player and the wins and losses they were involved in, these players had the worst ratio last season:

Zaharakis: 0.47 (17 games, 9 losses)
Parish: 0.47 (15 games, 8 losses)
Stewart: 0.36 (11 games, 7 losses)
McNiece: 0.38 (8 games, 5 losses)
Laverde: 0.43 (7 games, 4 losses)
Ambrose: 0.43 (7 games, 4 losses)
Daniher: 0.29 (7 games, 5 losses)

Alternately, these players had an above average ratio:

Langford: 0.69 (16 games, 11 wins)
Guelfi: 0.67 (15 games, 10 wins)
Brown: 0.64 (14 games, 9 wins)
Fantasia: 0.69 (13 games, 9 wins)
Dea: 0.75 (12 games, 9 wins)
McKernan: 0.70 (10 games, 7 wins)
Francis: 0.60 (5 games, 3 wins)

Make of these what you will, thought it was interesting to see what we do well when we do well!

 

[Lore]

I tried something like this last year but I don't think it tells us much altogether.

We do well when we beat our opponent on the ground, but how we do that depends on the opponent's strengths and weaknesses, the teams available on the day, and the conditions at the ground. There is no one stat or one player (or combination of stats or players) that will consistently win us games.

 

[Vindicater]

I tried something like this last year but I don't think it tells us much altogether.

We do well when we beat our opponent on the ground, but how we do that depends on the opponent's strengths and weaknesses, the teams available on the day, and the conditions at the ground. There is no one stat or one player (or combination of stats or players) that will consistently win us games.

No, it tells us Dea is our most important player.

 

[eth-dog]

Look at the records of when we won the clearances and lost the clearances:

Won: 9-3
Lost: 3-7

The three losses when we won the clearances were Richmond x2 and Collingwood. The three wins were Adelaide, Brisbane and Port. 75% win rate when we win them, 30% win record when we don't.

 

[Don Won]

Games won last year when I was wearing my lucky underpants 10 games lost 4.

Make of it what you will, but im not taking them off.

 

[owen87]

I’d have voted for the more goals option as the most likely predictor

I think we’re at our best when we’re tackling and applying physical pressure, the open field style of play suits us if you get a shoot out like the North game, but that rarely happens.

Contested Possessions / Clearances / Tackles would both be my top one, that flows on to less dinky handballs, more kicks, and more marks.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

I’d like to see uncontested marks. Think that is a huge metric for us.

 

[84859300]

I feel that, for us, more inside 50's and marks inside 50 are veiled stats.

Inside 50's for us seem to be a crap shoot and depending on personnel in the F50 at the time, influences how we deal with it once it's in there. With a smaller line, featuring Raz, Walla, Bags; we are competitive enough to apply pressure to keep the ball in, or pressure the opposing player trying to get it out. With the taller timber of Smack, Joe, Stewart, Belly in the same vicinity... the ball gets waltzed out time after time.

Marks inside 50 over the last 4 or so years have been pretty poor, as we have either been bombing it long or we have been trying to spot up smaller players (think our best CHFs in Froggy and Walla *sigh*) with poorly placed kicks either too high, or too slow in their delivery. When we do get it in, maybe I'm being harsh, but I don't believe that our forward 6 are the most reliable shots at goal (and that's Joey aside). I'd have Raz at number 1, then Smack at 2... then I think we really drop off as 50/50 chances at best.

From a poor JLT series, the play I was most excited from was our first F50 entry in game one. All forwards were deep and the 'cage' was clear, Hepp gets a handball from Walla and hits Joe on the chest 20 out. It was the most un-Essendon entry I'd seen for a long time, which left me thinking our bad old habits had been kicked to the curb and with a 6-6-6 start that this could be the future of our F50.

Well, we know how that worked out for the remaining 240 minutes of the JLT

 

[blitzer]

If I had to pick one I'd say inside 50s. I like inside 50s as a stat because it represents territory gained, opportunities to score and equally denying opponents easy opportunities to score. Its not the be all and end all, but its a good stat that would correlate reliably with our wins.

Clearances is not a great stat on its own but I really like it as a secondary stat with inside 50s. I think together it gives you a good picture of how we are generating our inside 50s and more often than not inside 50s from clearances give good opportunities to score and reduce the chances of conceding easy goals.

Tackles and Contested Possessions would be my next 2. Oh and I didn't count more total points than opponent because......duh

 

[eth-dog]

With all the talk about inside 50's, here's our record when winning and losing the stat:

Win: 7-1
Lose: 3-9

So a 87.5% winning ratio when we win it and a 25% winning ratio when we lose it.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Tackles is a massive stat. If we don’t out-tackle the opponent, we barely seem to win.

 

[eth-dog]

Tackles is a massive stat. If we don’t out-tackle the opponent, we barely seem to win.

11-4 when we win it. 3 draws in the stat (lost all of them). 1-3 when we lost them.

 

[fairbump_playon]

Games won last year when I was wearing my lucky underpants 10 games lost 4.

Make of it what you will, but im not taking them off.

That should get us nearly 16 wins and a top 4 finish if could just have the decency to wear them for every game

 

[The Airing of Grievances]

Games won last year when I was wearing my lucky underpants 10 games lost 4.

Make of it what you will, but im not taking them off.

We can but wonder what (if anything) you were wearing the other 8 games.

 

[ghostdog]

Possessions and disposals seems silly. We take possession, we must dispose. More interested in contested possessions and marks inside fifty as they indicate control.

 

[yaco55]

It's all about skill level - Hitting the right targets at the right time - And stats for this are not a true indication.

 

[JayJ20]

Three most important stats for us are inside 50s, tackles and clearances.

 

[windyhill]

I'd throw in when you cop a team, as in , have they come off a loss ? Is pressure building on their coach ? Has a star player copped it all week in the press. Ess are very good at playing opposition players back into form. A good time to play us last year was early. Very good win round one and then fell off the cliff.
I like playing teams who have won 3-4 in a row because you know they're due to drop one. So for me its timing as to when you get certain teams. GWS without Ward, Kelly and big Mummy is extremely handy.

 

[Don Won]

We can but wonder what (if anything) you were wearing the other 8 games.

Let’s just say our team wasn’t the only one stinking it up.