Preview Round 1: GWS vs Essendon, Sydney Showgrounds, Sunday 24/03/2019 @ 3.20PM

[ghostdog]

TBH I think it’s more likely Dev Smith plays the Dev Smith midfield role and McGrath spends more time forward. I think we need Smith around the contest.

McGrath is great on the fly but I’m not certain his physicality is at the level required for serious midfield duties (yet).

You may be right. McGrath looks considerably more solid this year so he's on his way, plus he kicks goals. Both are upgrades on Baguley skill-wise so I'd be happy with either. What impacts that might have for team selection is interesting.

 

[calyam]

Squad has too few genuine midfielders. In round one, when players frequently struggle with fitness, I think we will regret the choice not to have more players who can rotate through the midfield and play big minutes in the middle. This is particularly an issue if Merrett is still underdone.

What?

Selection in round 1 seems to be aiming for finals, but not aiming for top spot?

Please, PLEASE tell me who has been selected that makes us a good chance at finals, but inhibits a shot at top spot.

I think the argument would essentially boil down to a lack of ambition. It is a safe squad that is probably good enough to win games, but also a squad that has failed to take the next step on numerous occasions, without an influx of youth it is unlikely that the team will do much better than we have in recent years.

And to be fair, we have just selected Mark Baguley in 2019. So there is not much risk-taking or ambition from our coaching staff.

 

[Maxabillions]

Bags played well with in the back half of last year.

Maybe selecting players that play well sends the message that you need to play well to be selected.

 

[Andronicus]

Squad has too few genuine midfielders. In round one, when players frequently struggle with fitness, I think we will regret the choice not to have more players who can rotate through the midfield and play big minutes in the middle. This is particularly an issue if Merrett is still underdone.



I think the argument would essentially boil down to a lack of ambition. It is a safe squad that is probably good enough to win games, but also a squad that has failed to take the next step on numerous occasions, without an influx of youth it is unlikely that the team will do much better than we have in recent years.

And to be fair, we have just selected Mark Baguley in 2019. So there is not much risk-taking or ambition from our coaching staff.

So in round 1, choosing bags over an as yet unnamed player means we are not trying to finish in top spot.

Odd view.

 

[Bombermania]

As much as we love bags, surely Laverde is a better option?

I would have thought Lavarde was being kept out by Brown.

 

[blitzer]

Squad has too few genuine midfielders. In round one, when players frequently struggle with fitness, I think we will regret the choice not to have more players who can rotate through the midfield and play big minutes in the middle. This is particularly an issue if Merrett is still underdone.



I think the argument would essentially boil down to a lack of ambition. It is a safe squad that is probably good enough to win games, but also a squad that has failed to take the next step on numerous occasions, without an influx of youth it is unlikely that the team will do much better than we have in recent years.

And to be fair, we have just selected Mark Baguley in 2019. So there is not much risk-taking or ambition from our coaching staff.

I don't buy this too few midfielders. It really just sounds like you want more change because you have the idea that different personnel = different results.

We have: Merrett, Shiel, Heppell, Smith, Zaharakis, McGrath, Langford, Myers as guys that are capable of playing out full games in the midfield and will spend most of their time there. There is no first or second year players in that group and only McGrath as a 3rd year player so they are pretty mature.
Then we have the following blokes who will rotate through: Stringer, Fantasia, Tippa and Guelfi

Also whether we pick Baguley and Guelfi or Parish and Laverde its probably going to make bugger all difference to whether we win or lose games of footy. They are all fringe players for a reason.

 

[windyhill]

Baguely copping it. I thought people were taught a lesson last season ?

 

[ghostdog]

I don't buy this too few midfielders. It really just sounds like you want more change because you have the idea that different personnel = different results.

We have: Merrett, Shiel, Heppell, Smith, Zaharakis, McGrath, Langford, Myers as guys that are capable of playing out full games in the midfield and will spend most of their time there. There is no first or second year players in that group and only McGrath as a 3rd year player so they are pretty mature.
Then we have the following blokes who will rotate through: Stringer, Fantasia, Tippa and Guelfi

Also whether we pick Baguley and Guelfi or Parish and Laverde its probably going to make bugger all difference to whether we win or lose games of footy. They are all fringe players for a reason.

If it's going to make bugger all difference then you pick one of the younger guys over the old guy. The potential the player has to develop is the difference. That said, I think I agree with Bombermania that on paper it looks like it's Brown whose place Laverde should take. Not sure how much taller he is though.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

It is a safe squad that is probably good enough to win games, but also a squad that has failed to take the next step on numerous occasions, without an influx of youth it is unlikely that the team will do much better than we have in recent years.

I think finishing 10-4 without our best forward and new playing style was successfulprogress and a sign of taking the next step.

As for Baguley he’s one of our better if not best defensive forward.

 

[OsteitisPubis22]

As much as we love bags, surely Laverde is a better option?

Mate, I reckon Baguley had more tackles in one game than Laverde has in his whole career!


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[Howard Moon]

Parish out is a positive for the club overall

If guys like parish, laverde and co can't force their way in it means we have built decent depth.

This will bear fruit as the long gruelling season drags on.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

I think interstate against GWS we’ve decided to go more defensive. Parish probably comes in next week against Saints

 

[kelvin_sheedy]

Who would you include/remove to aim for the minor premiership?

My comment is more related to selection policies and preparing a side with the aim of winning a flag. I don't think we have the quality to win a flag this year. Most of the sides above us last year have recruited just as well if not better.

We need to find out if Parish, Laverde and the like can step up. Ridley should have played more games last year. Gets his chance now but should have a dozen games under his belt.

I'm a Baguley fan but he looked to be running in quicksand in the JLT. Clubs need to make tough calls on when the player drops off that cliff. It might have already happened for him. One player in the 22 has little bearing on win/loss. Selecting Parish or Laverde over Baguley makes little difference to our win/loss.

Geelong had 6 new guys in their team last night, disposed of us easily in the JLT and beat the premiership favourites who look a pretty good outfit. Going to be scary watching Jamie Elliot play against us if he stays fit.

I know we have a few injuries but the sooner we can get guys like Begley and Redman in the better. We might have to make hard calls on Baguley and even Zaharakis.

I was pretty optimistic over the summer but when I see the 22 and assess it objectively it still reads like a middle of the road side. I just hope and pray that we get guys like Langford and Myers stepping up and the rest of Heppell, Shiel, Merrett, Smith gel and play career best footy. Tippa and Stringer can be our differentiators. Let see how we go here. We'll probably need a month of footy to assess where we are as a side.

 

[puntingdude22]

I wonder which team will be most affected by the hot conditions?

 

[Doss]

My comment is more related to selection policies and preparing a side with the aim of winning a flag. I don't think we have the quality to win a flag this year. Most of the sides above us last year have recruited just as well if not better.

We need to find out if Parish, Laverde and the like can step up. Ridley should have played more games last year. Gets his chance now but should have a dozen games under his belt.

I'm a Baguley fan but he looked to be running in quicksand in the JLT. Clubs need to make tough calls on when the player drops off that cliff. It might have already happened for him. One player in the 22 has little bearing on win/loss. Selecting Parish or Laverde over Baguley makes little difference to our win/loss.

Geelong had 6 new guys in their team last night, disposed of us easily in the JLT and beat the premiership favourites who look a pretty good outfit. Going to be scary watching Jamie Elliot play against us if he stays fit.

I know we have a few injuries but the sooner we can get guys like Begley and Redman in the better. We might have to make hard calls on Baguley and even Zaharakis.

I was pretty optimistic over the summer but when I see the 22 and assess it objectively it still reads like a middle of the road side. I just hope and pray that we get guys like Langford and Myers stepping up and the rest of Heppell, Shiel, Merrett, Smith gel and play career best footy. Tippa and Stringer can be our differentiators. Let see how we go here. We'll probably need a month of footy to assess where we are as a side.

+Fantasia on the bolded. Him firing is absolutely vital to us going anywhere.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

I wonder which team will be most affected by the hot conditions?

I dont think it favours any team, both have been training hard through a long hot summer.

What I think the heat does is encourage a blowout. If a team gets on the back foot it's much harder work zoning and running defensively and they'll tire quicker in the heat.

At AO round 1 2017 we got smashed by 10 goals in 30° heat because the Crows got on top in contested possessions and we just ran out of legs.

 

[Darealrath]

Bags played well with in the back half of last year.

Maybe selecting players that play well sends the message that you need to play well to be selected.

Exactly.

He epitomised the work rate that turned our season around. If a big part of the message is that to turn into a quality side we need to bring that every week, then as long as he’s still doing that, and playing well, you can hardly drop him until the likes of Laverde demonstrate they can bring the same intensity. And they clearly haven’t.

 

[Maxabillions]

Exactly.

He epitomised the work rate that turned our season around. If a big part of the message is that to turn into a quality side we need to bring that every week, then as long as he’s still doing that, and playing well, you can hardly drop him until the likes of Laverde demonstrate they can bring the same intensity. And they clearly haven’t.

Agreed. Gifting players games just because they are younger is exactly going to help build a "winning culture".

 

[nickh32]

Ins and Outs since last time they played

Essendon INS: Shiel, Hurley, Brown, Myers, Francis
Essendon OUTS: Goddard, Stewart, Laverde, Dea, Hooker

GWS INS: Davis, Williams, Taylor, Kennedy, Deledio, Daniels, Greene, Simpson, De Boar, Reid, Keefe, Finlayson
GWS OUTS: Lobb, Ward, Kelly, Patton, Haynes, Corr, Griffen, Shiel, Buntine, Mohr, Langdon, Buckley

 

[calyam]

Baguely copping it. I thought people were taught a lesson last season ?

Do people really think that Baguley was good last year? There was evidence he was cooked in 2017, he was absolutely done in 2018, and yet he is still getting games in 2019. He was one of our worst performed players in the JLT series.

The best statistical measures we have for analysing AFL footballers (the 'AFL Player Ratings') suggest that Baguley was our least effective player last year, among players with more than seven games played. Third least effective among players regularly in line for selection, ahead of just Laverde and Daniher. He was around 40% less productive per possession than his small forward peers, Fantasia and Walla, which would make him one of the least effective small forwards in the league. Running around pretending to put on pressure doesn't make you an effective footballer nor does it warrant a position in the best-22.

That Baguley was selected in round one speaks to the mediocrity that has become ingrained in not just the footy club but also its supporters. We are basically playing one man short and people on here support that decision.

 

[VelvetSledge]

Ins and Outs since last time they played

Essendon INS: Shiel, Hurley, Brown, Myers, Francis
Essendon OUTS: Goddard, Stewart, Laverde, Dea, Hooker

GWS INS: Davis, Williams, Taylor, Kennedy, Deledio, Daniels, Greene, Simpson, De Boar, Reid, Keefe, Finlayson
GWS OUTS: Lobb, Ward, Kelly, Patton, Haynes, Corr, Griffen, Shiel, Buntine, Mohr, Langdon, Buckley

HE'S BACK

 

[Maxabillions]

Do people really think that Baguley was good last year? There was evidence he was cooked in 2017, he was absolutely done in 2018, and yet he is still getting games in 2019. He was one of our worst performed players in the JLT series.

The best statistical measures we have for analysing AFL footballers (the 'AFL Player Ratings') suggest that Baguley was our least effective player last year, among players with more than seven games played. Third least effective among players regularly in line for selection, ahead of just Laverde and Daniher. He was around 40% less productive per possession than his small forward peers, Fantasia and Walla, which would make him one of the least effective small forwards in the league. Running around pretending to put on pressure doesn't make you an effective footballer nor does it warrant a position in the best-22.

That Baguley was selected in round one speaks to the mediocrity that has become ingrained in not just the footy club but also its supporters. We are basically playing one man short and people on here support that decision.

So he was more effective than Laverde and he got selected ahead of Laverde? Outrageous.

Last year he had more goals, tackles, tackles inside 50 and 1 percenters than Laverde so why is it not his spot for Laverde to try to take?

 

[ghostdog]

Ins and Outs since last time they played

Essendon INS: Shiel, Hurley, Brown, Myers, Francis
Essendon OUTS: Goddard, Stewart, Laverde, Dea, Hooker

GWS INS: Davis, Williams, Taylor, Kennedy, Deledio, Daniels, Greene, Simpson, De Boar, Reid, Keefe, Finlayson
GWS OUTS: Lobb, Ward, Kelly, Patton, Haynes, Corr, Griffen, Shiel, Buntine, Mohr, Langdon, Buckley

GWS ins and outs are amazing. I had no idea it was that many players. Doesn't look good, though a lot of recognisable names still so gameplan / ethos maybe not affected.

 

[windyhill]

Do people really think that Baguley was good last year? There was evidence he was cooked in 2017, he was absolutely done in 2018, and yet he is still getting games in 2019. He was one of our worst performed players in the JLT series.

The best statistical measures we have for analysing AFL footballers (the 'AFL Player Ratings') suggest that Baguley was our least effective player last year, among players with more than seven games played. Third least effective among players regularly in line for selection, ahead of just Laverde and Daniher. He was around 40% less productive per possession than his small forward peers, Fantasia and Walla, which would make him one of the least effective small forwards in the league. Running around pretending to put on pressure doesn't make you an effective footballer nor does it warrant a position in the best-22.

That Baguley was selected in round one speaks to the mediocrity that has become ingrained in not just the footy club but also its supporters. We are basically playing one man short and people on here support that decision.

Are there stats for opposition players looking over their shoulders knowing there is a kamikaze in the vicinity ?
Is there a stat that shows how a player who is much smaller than most can embarrass teammates with his attack on the ball ?
Is there a stat for a player thinking,” oh my ******* god if bags goes where angels fear to tread then so can I” ?

 

[blitzer]

Do people really think that Baguley was good last year? There was evidence he was cooked in 2017, he was absolutely done in 2018, and yet he is still getting games in 2019. He was one of our worst performed players in the JLT series.

The best statistical measures we have for analysing AFL footballers (the 'AFL Player Ratings') suggest that Baguley was our least effective player last year, among players with more than seven games played. Third least effective among players regularly in line for selection, ahead of just Laverde and Daniher. He was around 40% less productive per possession than his small forward peers, Fantasia and Walla, which would make him one of the least effective small forwards in the league. Running around pretending to put on pressure doesn't make you an effective footballer nor does it warrant a position in the best-22.

That Baguley was selected in round one speaks to the mediocrity that has become ingrained in not just the footy club but also its supporters. We are basically playing one man short and people on here support that decision.

I was #1 on the get Baguley out of the side and retire him when he was playing in defense but the truth is he consistently kicked goals last year once he switched up forward and laid plenty of tackles.

Its not embracing mediocrity to play the guy that's available and best prepared to play the role. Everyone just thinks playing him will enhance our chances of winning. For the record against GWS last year he kicked 3 goals.

As the year goes on I'm hoping we see Begley take over that position but he'll need a bit more time coming back from his knee. Looks in ripping shape though and he's the one with the potential. Mosquito and Ham aren't ready yet.