AFL 2019 - AFL Round 1

[NeverForget2]

19 points after 12 minutes of play.

Haha. Nice edit after two quick goals

 

[Browney2006]

This one is finally going to go over

 

[SM]

Live 1.5u on freo line -68.5

 

[mookieb]

Note to self. Take all underdogs round 1 next season. This is the trend.

Sent from the old mobile using Tapatalk

Wasn't really the trend last year. GWS pumped WB, as did Port vs Freo, Swans won easily vs WC (they were big favs), Saints and Tigers both comfortable winners, Hawks favs vs Coll. Ess beat Ade but this was more a last quarter thumping as they ran over the top of them. GC vs NM was a monsoon so hard to tell.

From what I can tell teams with a poor prep or some injury concerns fared badly. NM (injuries and lots of new players), Ess (injuries, players with poor preps), Melb with players underdone (Viney, Jones etc), WC (no forward line), Syd (Buddy underdone). Then again Ade looked like they had a solid preseason then came out and were terrible.

 

[iluvparis]

Wasn't really the trend last year. GWS pumped WB, as did Port vs Freo, Swans won easily vs WC (they were big favs), Saints and Tigers both comfortable winners, Hawks favs vs Coll. Ess beat Ade but this was more a last quarter thumping as they ran over the top of them. GC vs NM was a monsoon so hard to tell.

From what I can tell teams with a poor prep or some injury concerns fared badly. NM (injuries and lots of new players), Ess (injuries, players with poor preps), Melb with players underdone (Viney, Jones etc), WC (no forward line), Syd (Buddy underdone). Then again Ade looked like they had a solid preseason then came out and were terrible.

Solid after timing here - 4 days ago Melbourne were virtually unbeatable and North were HUUUUUUUUUGE overs because Hogan wasn't playing.

 

[SM]

Solid after timing here - 4 days ago Melbourne were virtually unbeatable and North were HUUUUUUUUUGE overs because Hogan wasn't playing.

I think he's just trying to understand why teams lost, rather than saying we should have seen it coming.

 

[iluvparis]

I think he's just trying to understand why teams lost, rather than saying we should have seen it coming.

Didn't Freo and St Kilda have injury concerns as well though?

 

[SM]

Didn't Freo and St Kilda have injury concerns as well though?

Yep, wasn't suggesting it was flawless logic.

Sone things are just unpredictable.

 

[langdon19]

Down 2.5U
Crap round

 

[Ohh Ok]

Updated Record: 9-11-0 -2.96 units

GWS/Essendon
(2.5u) Coniglio more fantasy points than Merrett @ $1.77 (pointsbet)
(2.5u) Taranto over 99.5 fantasy @ $1.88 (pointsbet)
(2u) Whitfield under 104.5 fantasy @ $1.88 (BE)

2u Saints/GC under 180.5 @ 1.9 (uni)
2u Freo/North Under 178.5 @ 1.9 (uni)

0.5u Mulit above picks + GWS/Ess u180.5 @ $8.03 (uni, 20% boost)

1.5u Langdon more disposals than Dumont @ $2 (365)
1.5u Lobb anytime, Higgins 25+ @ $2.13 (lads)
1u Mundy anytime @ $1.9 (neds)
2u either team under 24.5 $1.8 (neds)

Updated record: 14-15-0
Units: +0.56

Funny round, but will take it ending in the green. Felt I forced a few plays, got unlucky on some, and made the complete wrong choice on others. Hopefully build the bank a bit more next round!

 

[SM]

Updated record: 14-15-0
Units: +0.56

Funny round, but will take it ending in the green. Felt I forced a few plays, got unlucky on some, and made the complete wrong choice on others. Hopefully build the bank a bit more next round!

I bet on more things than I posted here but I'll check my record of tips posted only, not fair to include anything else.

Think I'm up, but will be interesting lol.

 

[mookieb]

Solid after timing here - 4 days ago Melbourne were virtually unbeatable and North were HUUUUUUUUUGE overs because Hogan wasn't playing.

I was very big on Melb - but I also had reasons to be big on Melb. I talked myself into NM even though I didn't like their prep. I certainly got most of the round wrong that's for sure.

There were some massive deviations from the line and from totals so ideally i'd rather try to see some sort of pattern that might be of use for next year.

 

[mookieb]

Didn't Freo and St Kilda have injury concerns as well though?

StK were pretty ordinary I would have thought. 1 point win vs away team everyone has ranked as wooden spoon favourites.

 

[Ohh Ok]

I bet on more things than I posted here but I'll check my record of tips posted only, not fair to include anything else.

Think I'm up, but will be interesting lol.

Yeh I follow a few blokes here and there so usually end up going alright. Just thought it’d be good for myself to track myself somewhere. Probably helps me with analysing my results a bit more too.

Looking back my main killers this weekend were;
3u Collingwood SU
4u Beams more disposals than Ablett
3.5u Gus Brayshaw Fantasy overs

 

[SM]

Yeh I follow a few blokes here and there so usually end up going alright. Just thought it’d be good for myself to track myself somewhere. Probably helps me with analysing my results a bit more too.

Looking back my main killers this weekend were;
3u Collingwood SU
4u Beams more disposals than Ablett
3.5u Gus Brayshaw Fantasy overs

I keep a spreadsheet of all my stakes and returns on afl. Last year went at 110% over the season which is nothing amazing but betting on almost every game, being in the green is always a good result.

My big killer was my 4u on Swans. was up 6u before that game.

 

[SM]

So bets mentioned in here:

2U u182.5 in Dees-Port @ 1.89
1.5U Port -0.5 @ 1.97
1.5U u187.5 Hawks-Crows @ 1.91
1.5U Hawks -8.5 alt line in play @ 2.75
1U Swans -22.5 alt line @ 2.55
2U Swans-Dogs u174.5 @ 1.91
4U Swans H2H @ 1.56
1U GC +27.5 @ 1.91
1U GC-Saints u179.5 @ 1.91
1U GWS H2H @ 1.82
1U GWS-Ess u180.5 @ 1.89
3U North-Freo u176.5 @ 1.89 (I actually only put 1u on this in the end but counting this as what I tipped)
1.5U Freo -68.5 in play @ 1.91

Off those I finish up 5.94 units.

 

[bettingonbetts]

The last 3 mins were horrid when Higgins was only on 23

 

[NonPhixion]

0.5U Treloar O28.5 @1.94 -SB

0.5U Bont O23.5 @1.92 -SB

0.5U Miles O21.5 @1.94 -SB

1u Hopper O21.5 @1.80 -SB

4/4 with player disposals.
I have to steer clear from pissy SGM's im terrible at them and just throw money away

 

[Keystone agony]

I will still make a case that preseason from leads to round 1

North, Melbourne and Essendon were horrible in JLT

Port and Brisbane were good as were the eagles

Some might say hawks were s**t but they played their worse 22 in round 1 and then were pretty solid against richmond in JLT 2

Freo the surprise packet but North were as bad as essendon over preseason.

Adelaide were quite good and didnt live upto JLT form but hawks went better than expected

Collingwood were avg and performed so Geelong went pretty well

Anyway i reckon most teams will bounce back after a drumming

 

[redstarforever_]

bombers wtf! the one game of all i had over 178.5 ;”(

 

[iluvparis]

I was very big on Melb - but I also had reasons to be big on Melb. I talked myself into NM even though I didn't like their prep. I certainly got most of the round wrong that's for sure.

There were some massive deviations from the line and from totals so ideally i'd rather try to see some sort of pattern that might be of use for next year.

That's my point - just as likely to be some sort of natural variance than any pattern.

 

[SterlingArcher]

For all the gloating, I got North at $2.12 and they started around $1.80. Pretty happy with the value long term in getting on a bet 30c high even if a losing bet this time.

 

[iluvparis]

For all the gloating, I got North at $2.12 and they started around $1.80. Pretty happy with the value long term in getting on a bet 30c high even if a losing bet this time.

So long as the $1.80 was a true reflection of their chances

 

[iluvparis]

Forum voters go 5-4 ATS which would be enough to eek out a profit at $1.90 lines.

However the lock of the week (Adelaide -18.5 attracting 78% of voters) failed spectacularly.

 

[Jammer]

Carlton plus 34.5 Ladbrokes $1.90 one unit

Carlton win 1 to 39.5 Topbetta $6.25 half unit

I think the Blues have improved, like their onball unit and get Port in a potential let down spot.
Still plenty of class missing for the Power. Near 6 goal start is too big for me.