Predict the results of the 2019 Federal Election

Remove this Banner Ad

Sep 10, 2004
36,966
63,392
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Minnesota Vikings
Individual seat polls are rarely accurate. For example, these ones have an average MOE of 4.3%.

You only need to look at by-election polling to show you that they're rarely accurate.

The more notable thing from those 4 polls is that the Australian are selecting the 4 closest polls they have to create a "down to the wire" narrative. In actual fact those 4 polls show that the government can't win.
 

Craven Morehead

I really don't care what you think.
Jan 2, 2019
4,103
5,411
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Look, the way the House of Reps works means that unless your primary vote is far more than 20% you have a near zero chance of harvesting enough for preferences to push you over 50%.

The key is for the ON or UAP vote to be anywhere near the majors (otherwise they will eventually be eliminated and have their own preferences distributed) and even with favourable how to vote cards, people still often don't follow them.

There is a reason why even though the Greens vote has hovered about 10% nationally, that they have never had more than one person in the House of Reps in political history. Michael Organ and Adam Bandt needed ideal preference flows from the two major parties to win election along with a huge primary vote.

I know how it works mate.
Last election ON got over 17% of the primary.
This election they have a far more palatable and popular candidate, the sitting NP member is right on the nose and the rural section of the electorate is not going to vote Labor.
Joyce, at a recent meeting I attended, openly stated that they would preference ON as 'anything is better than Labor'. His words.
Scoff all you want, but you might be surprised.
 
Mar 21, 2016
73,877
116,804
Down South Corvus Tristis
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Sturt, White Sox
There is a reason why even though the Greens vote has hovered about 10% nationally, that they have never had more than one person in the House of Reps in political history. Michael Organ and Adam Bandt needed ideal preference flows from the two major parties to win election along with a huge primary vote.
Speaking of, what is the forecast for Bandt? Safe or needs help?
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Rob R

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 17, 2009
5,409
6,008
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Minority Liberal Government by a bee's dick and QLD/NSW results, However will be truly ****** that a coalition will hinge on one nation, UAP, Nationals. We'll be an absolute dumpster fire.
Not going to happen. ALP will win with at least a five seat majority. Senate could pose a problem for them.
 
Speaking of, what is the forecast for Bandt? Safe or needs help?

Assuming the preference deals remain the same he should easily retain his seat. Increased his majority I believe at the last election.
 
Not going to happen. ALP will win with at least a five seat majority. Senate could pose a problem for them.

To be fair the Senate would have posed a problem regardless of who won government. The primary votes for the major parties keep dipping. I don't think we will ever see a double majority again like what John Howard had for a term.
 
I know how it works mate.
Last election ON got over 17% of the primary.
This election they have a far more palatable and popular candidate, the sitting NP member is right on the nose and the rural section of the electorate is not going to vote Labor.
Joyce, at a recent meeting I attended, openly stated that they would preference ON as 'anything is better than Labor'. His words.
Scoff all you want, but you might be surprised.

17% is still way behind the primary votes of both the ALP and LNP candidates. Like I said, the ON candidate would need to seriously challenge the number of first preference votes for one of the major party candidates to even have a shot - even if all of those who voted for the independents and Greens swung behind the ON candidate they still would fall short. If LNP preferenced ON it means little because there is no chance of the LNP candidate being eliminated before the final preference count with two candidates remaining.

What actually matters is who the ON voters preference.
 

TimmeT

Premiership Player
Mar 28, 2017
4,321
4,509
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
To be fair the Senate would have posed a problem regardless of who won government. The primary votes for the major parties keep dipping. I don't think we will ever see a double majority again like what John Howard had for a term.
Absolutely. A number of people cannot vote for their preferred party in the HOR but can in senate hence why the result really will be mixed in terms of who holds seats.
 

Lebbo73

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 20, 2014
18,278
19,364
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Liverpool
I still believe that Labor will win. However, Bill Shorten is doing himself no favours when he can’t cost his dismal climate change policies. Even worse is his antics so far on the campaign trail. He is coming across as agitated and any watching would think that Shorten is the underdog.
 
When it’s all over, the statement will be the liberals lost this in August 2018. This was just a delayed result

Not according to the mutts at sky2gb
It'll be Mals fault for knifing tony , like it has been since the day after and those campaigners started crying like 2 years olds for their dum-dums and haven't let up to this very day.


One of the first things i said that beautiful arvo when tony was knifed was that now we were robbed of the joy of voting that coward out and that his sycophants would scream for the rest of their lives how " tONY WOULDA WUN IT !!!!! "
 
Sep 10, 2004
36,966
63,392
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Minnesota Vikings
I still believe that Labor will win. However, Bill Shorten is doing himself no favours when he can’t cost his dismal climate change policies. Even worse is his antics so far on the campaign trail. He is coming across as agitated and any watching would think that Shorten is the underdog.

Luckily for him then that no one's watching.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Aug 11, 2006
33,042
27,534
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Timberwolves, Crystal Palace
UAP will be lucky to get more than one seat, One Nation will be even more lucky to have any in the House, and the Nationals are guaranteed to be in coalition with the Libs.
I hope for the sake of our country I'm wrong. The Senate will be an absolute s**t show. Im expecting the nut job right will make it a hung senate
 


Baffled by UAP results - especially Herbert, it's where Townsville is located. The same Townsville that Palmer destroyed.
Big swing in Deakin - I was expecting more.


I'd be questioning that Deakin result if they think the UAP is going to attract 5% of the primary vote in that kind of seat.
 
I hope for the sake of our country I'm wrong. The Senate will be an absolute s**t show. Im expecting the nut job right will make it a hung senate

I meant with reference to the House of Reps.

I am almost certain UAP and/or ON will pick up seats in the Senate.
 

Pessimistic

Cancelled
30k Posts 10k Posts HBF's Milk Crate - 70k Posts TheBrownDog
Sep 13, 2000
86,852
42,951
Melbourne cricket ground. Australia
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Horks
Bill will have a hobsons choice of RWNJobs to get the last senate vote(s) needed. If its Palmer they could play one of his ads back to him and say - look this was in your platform - there's plenty to go at
 

DaRick

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 12, 2008
7,994
8,115
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
(See avatar)
Minority Liberal Government by a bee's dick and QLD/NSW results, However will be truly ****** that a coalition will hinge on one nation, UAP, Nationals. We'll be an absolute dumpster fire.

To form a minority government, the LNP will have to get the independents to back them in.

How likely is that?
 

GoldenSky

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 6, 2006
5,289
1,944
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
The more notable thing from those 4 polls is that the Australian are selecting the 4 closest polls they have to create a "down to the wire" narrative. In actual fact those 4 polls show that the government can't win.

Agree. Bad polling for the Libs.

I still believe that Labor will win. However, Bill Shorten is doing himself no favours when he can’t cost his dismal climate change policies. Even worse is his antics so far on the campaign trail. He is coming across as agitated and any watching would think that Shorten is the underdog.

Yep. Shorten has not been as good as he has been previously...
 
Dutton probably yes. Abbott no.

Hector.jpg
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Back