2019 Labor Leadership Non-Election - Albanese v Nobody

[Kurve]

Turns out Twitter isn’t the best of places to get a gauge on how Australians are going to vote....

It's not. Will any lessons be learned?

Interesting article here referencing the 'quiet Australians' Morrison targeted. This professor predicted Brexit, Trump and Scott Morrison.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/austr...ho-predicted-trump-brexit--and-scott-morrison

 

[Present Not Past]

I don't get the Adani=jobs. Haven't they said that it is only 1000 or so?

Yes but it was a concept in the election campaign that took on a greater importance than the thing itself.
It's like the Franklin River Dam in 1983. It's importance to the average person was minimal but it's importance in the election campaign became huge and was pivotal to Hawke winning that election.
How important is the Franklin River to Australians these days?

 

[citizen-erased]

This one is delicate for the ALP.

Shorten was a poor decision in the first place. The public was never going to warm to him and it was obvious he was there to serve his own cause.

There has been a lot of shots fired at the Liberals for their gender equality issues (fairly too i might add, the party needs to find a way to address that whilst remaining strong in elections).
Do they allow a male to overstep a female deputy to the leadership, right choice or not.

Albo can win the public over.
Plibersek has a case that she's heir apparent
Chalmers could be an option if they choose to try and win QLD back (rather than put a competent showing in Vic and Tas in).
Bowen might just serve them well in opposition until the time is right to be legitimate contenders again. I think this could be a 2 term wilderness situation if ScoMo keeps the infighting to a minimum.

Wong won't do it, she's made that clear. I'm not sure she's ever wanted it.
KK i could see making the step down, but i wonder how much like Bill she is with the electorate. Couldn't finish off a flailing John Alexander with all the resources one could want.

Delicate times.
ALP took a big gamble with Shorten and it's not paid off.

Plib for the first 2-3 years, then switch to Albo or another rising contender and have a real shot at it in 2025~

 

[citizen-erased]

Yes but it was a concept in the election campaign that took on a greater importance than the thing itself.
It's like the Franklin River Dam in 1983. It's importance to the average person was minimal but it's importance in the election campaign became huge and was pivotal to Hawke winning that election.
How important is the Franklin River to Australians these days?

Yep

I think the notion that jobs will take a back seat to environment policies is where they took a hit.
There is an irony that it was a mine that largely took down a former CFMEU president....especially after it was a mine that put him on centre stage.

This one snookered Shorten.
There was no right answer, just a position you take. And i never felt he had any position that wasn't borne from how he would win the PMship.
This one didn't present a clear option either way and he was stumped on it.

 

[Maggie5]

Yes but it was a concept in the election campaign that took on a greater importance than the thing itself.
It's like the Franklin River Dam in 1983. It's importance to the average person was minimal but it's importance in the election campaign became huge and was pivotal to Hawke winning that election.
How important is the Franklin River to Australians these days?

Here it is, I underestimated it was 1464 then eventually fully automated.

Not according to Adani’s own hand-picked economic expert, Jerome Fahrer from ACIL Allen consulting, who told the Queensland Land Court in 2015 under oath that only 1,464 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs would be created by the project:

“Over the life of the Project it is projected that on average around 1,464 employee years of full time equivalent direct and indirect jobs will be created”.
Note that Fahrer made it abundantly clear that the 1,464 FTE jobs includes both direct employment through its own operations as well as jobs via the impacts on other industries.

Again, this is Adani’s own hand picked economist we are talking about, who rejected the initial 10,000 claim under oath. Fahrer also said in court of the project’s impact on employment:

“It’s not many jobs. We can agree on that”.​

And why would Adani’s Carmichael project generate many jobs when the company has boasted that it would be fully automated:

 

[eastfreo75]

Depends, by the next Federal election we could very well be in the midst of another recession. There's every chance we don't weather this one like we did last time and we have a huge economic down turn and housing prices turn to ****. This would be all under the supposed better economic managers in the LNP.

Again QLD will be where it's won. QLD voted for Adani and the jobs that it's supposedly going to bring, if it doesn't deliver and added onto a recession it could spell trouble for the LNP.

3 years is a bloody long time, it was only just a month ago everyone had the LNP being blown out of the water.

True three years is a long time for sure.

As for a huge economic down turn, I am not sure about that.

The media always scare people about the future, but the fact is Rich people will invest and make money. Why because they know over time they will make money. If you listen to the media, you won't invest.

I agree that the Adani won't the job creator that people make out due to automation.

I just think that Labor has left it's traditional base (they hate working class people) and radical lefts who don't believe in dialogue will destroy Labor.

The oldies will remember the Death and retirement taxs (fake news but believed by the baby boomers) and won't vote Labor again.

 

[GreyWind]

True three years is a long time for sure.

As for a huge economic down turn, I am not sure about that.

The media always scare people about the future, but the fact is Rich people will invest and make money. Why because they know over time they will make money. If you listen to the media, you won't invest.

I agree that the Adani won't the job creator that people make out due to automation.

I just think that Labor has left it's traditional base (they hate working class people) and radical lefts who don't believe in dialogue will destroy Labor.

The oldies will remember the Death and retirement taxs (fake news but believed by the baby boomers) and won't vote Labor again.

The economic down turn is a 50/50 according to economists so who the * knows what's going to happen.

Agree I don't see Adani being a saviour at all, if it does go ahead I really hope it doesn't wreck the environment as the death of the GBR will cause irreversible damage to QLD.

Labor is in a weird spot, agree they've alienated a large part of their normal base through their socially progressive stances that's coming off holier than thou.

 

[eastfreo75]

The economic down turn is a 50/50 according to economists so who the **** knows what's going to happen.

Agree I don't see Adani being a saviour at all, if it does go ahead I really hope it doesn't wreck the environment as the death of the GBR will cause irreversible damage to QLD.

Labor is in a weird spot, agree they've alienated a large part of their normal base through their socially progressive stances that's coming off holier than thou.

Aussies hate the holier than thou from anybody.

Not sure the left elites are capable of learning from this failure and be a bit humble about things.

 

[GreyWind]

Aussies hate the holier than thou from anybody.

Not sure the left elites are capable of learning from this failure and be a bit humble about things.

Totally agree, the strange thing is you could have applied the above to the LNP if they had have lost.

Aussie politics seems to be in this weird space where the far elements of either side have too much sway over the parties.

 

[citizen-erased]

Aussies hate the holier than thou from anybody.

Not sure the left elites are capable of learning from this failure and be a bit humble about things.

Or campaign better.

Victoria was a failure.
Local candidate for PM. Popular premier. Picked up 2 seats via redistribution and are in a fight for one more.
In a state where the Libs were bludgeoned at the last state election.

it's baffling.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

So they will win by out greening the Greens?

That worked so well for the Democrats.

What you potato?

The Democrats (Australian ones) fell apart because they lost their point of difference, not because they moved to the left.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Just going from what QLD posters have said that potential Adani jobs was a winner, lack of jobs is making people desperate to provide for their families. Amongst other things going on in QLD.

There aren't going to be many Adani jobs and the ALP had a huge jobs program.

When this hits home, I wonder how effectively the federal government can blame state Labor.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

If people are digging into the Labor right for who knows what reason, Chalmer I don't rate, Burke has bad politics but like Tony or Morrison may be effective due to pure bombast and disciplined hostility, one I would look out for is Jason Clare.

He's been earmarked as a party leader for a while, has served in some fairly senior roles and is a pretty ruthless political operator.

Plus he is a clear communicator.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

This one is delicate for the ALP.

Shorten was a poor decision in the first place. The public was never going to warm to him and it was obvious he was there to serve his own cause.

There has been a lot of shots fired at the Liberals for their gender equality issues (fairly too i might add, the party needs to find a way to address that whilst remaining strong in elections).
Do they allow a male to overstep a female deputy to the leadership, right choice or not.

Albo can win the public over.
Plibersek has a case that she's heir apparent
Chalmers could be an option if they choose to try and win QLD back (rather than put a competent showing in Vic and Tas in).
Bowen might just serve them well in opposition until the time is right to be legitimate contenders again. I think this could be a 2 term wilderness situation if ScoMo keeps the infighting to a minimum.

Wong won't do it, she's made that clear. I'm not sure she's ever wanted it.
KK i could see making the step down, but i wonder how much like Bill she is with the electorate. Couldn't finish off a flailing John Alexander with all the resources one could want.

Delicate times.
ALP took a big gamble with Shorten and it's not paid off.

Plib for the first 2-3 years, then switch to Albo or another rising contender and have a real shot at it in 2025~

Bowen would be a place holder. He's pretty uninspiring, deeply enmeshed in the Rud/Gillard years and was heavily involved in Shortens campaign. he's much more direct and even likeable than shorten but still comes across as officious.

I would like Plibersek for a PM, I'm not sure how she will tangle with the nutters in the LNP. One would hope well.

Albo is likeable, he's from the Labor left so I want to cheer him on but he is great throwing punches, however can waffle when given the space. Good when on message though, not as good in long pressers.

Chalmers is a please no. He comes from Queensland, that's it. Unless they want a Matthew Guy or a Dailey.



Imagine this bloke going head to head with Morrison. Rudd called him a wimp, which is deeply unfair, but both Albo and Plibersek, heck even Bowen are infinitely better communicators.

If they want new blood from the party right, Jason Clare or Clare O'Neill despite lacking the profile are way better choices.

 

[Maggie5]

Bowen would be a place holder. He's pretty uninspiring, deeply enmeshed in the Rud/Gillard years and was heavily involved in Shortens campaign.

I would like Plibersek for a PM, I'm not sure how she will tangle with the nutters in the LNP. One would hope well.

Albo is likeable, he's from the Labor left so I want to cheer him on but he is great throwing punches, however can waffle when given the space. Good when on message though, not as good in long pressers.

Chalmers is a please no. He comes from Queensland, that's it. Unless they want a Matthew Guy or a Dailey.

If they want new blood from the party right, Jason Clare or Clare O'Neill despite lacking the profile are way better choices.

Think they will stick with Albo which would be a shame. Don't think that Australia is ready or will accept a woman as leader for a long time. If they did, Bishop would still be around.

I just hope that a guy like Andrew Leigh is promoted to front shadow cabinet. Very smart guy but unaligned which is a problem.

tandino is it worth putting a poll up?

 

[tandino]

tandino is it worth putting a poll up?

Absolutely

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Absolutely

Please include a longshot like Jason Clare.

He is no chance now, but he will pop up later.

 

[tandino]

Ok, done.

Everybody on Sportsbet ordered by price except the joke ones, plus Husic and Marles that were also mentioned in this thread.

Requests for others and I’ll put them in.

 

[Pessimistic]

True three years is a long time for sure.

As for a huge economic down turn, I am not sure about that.

The media always scare people about the future, but the fact is Rich people will invest and make money. Why because they know over time they will make money. If you listen to the media, you won't invest.

I agree that the Adani won't the job creator that people make out due to automation.

I just think that Labor has left it's traditional base (they hate working class people) and radical lefts who don't believe in dialogue will destroy Labor.

The oldies will remember the Death and retirement taxs (fake news but believed by the baby boomers) and won't vote Labor again.

What if the coalition attack retirees conditions like last time? Saying labor would be worse sounds a bit hollow

 

[HairyO]

What you potato?

The Democrats (Australian ones) fell apart because they lost their point of difference, not because they moved to the left.

Stott Despoja dragged a centrist party to the left and competed with the Greens rather than staying inthe middle where they had plenty of support.

Or is your point that they made no changes but in the late 90s all their support dried up for no reason ?

 

[HairyO]

Turns out Twitter isn’t the best of places to get a gauge on how Australians are going to vote....

Or Big Footy.

 

[Sainteric]

Here it is, I underestimated it was 1464 then eventually fully automated.

Not according to Adani’s own hand-picked economic expert, Jerome Fahrer from ACIL Allen consulting, who told the Queensland Land Court in 2015 under oath that only 1,464 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs would be created by the project:

“Over the life of the Project it is projected that on average around 1,464 employee years of full time equivalent direct and indirect jobs will be created”.
Note that Fahrer made it abundantly clear that the 1,464 FTE jobs includes both direct employment through its own operations as well as jobs via the impacts on other industries.

Again, this is Adani’s own hand picked economist we are talking about, who rejected the initial 10,000 claim under oath. Fahrer also said in court of the project’s impact on employment:

“It’s not many jobs. We can agree on that”.​

And why would Adani’s Carmichael project generate many jobs when the company has boasted that it would be fully automated:

It's more than that and the 6 other new mines in the basin, the power station railways and the towns

 

[Sainteric]

Or Big Footy.

You weren't watching then

 

[Sainteric]

Think they will stick with Albo which would be a shame. Don't think that Australia is ready or will accept a woman as leader for a long time. If they did, Bishop would still be around.

I just hope that a guy like Andrew Leigh is promoted to front shadow cabinet. Very smart guy but unaligned which is a problem.

tandino is it worth putting a poll up?

Bishop is far better than plibersek, but she got axed by the right. The problem with bill and his deputy are too inner city etc, Albo can relate to the whole country.

 

[Snake_Baker]

I think they're doomed no matter what they do. It's a terrible state of affairs for the true working class.

Can a new party rise up and gather in the abandoned? I live in hope.