Predict the results of the 2019 Federal Election

[Stax on the mill]

75 seats coalition, 70 labor, 6 independent.

The latest polls indicate any swings won’t be big enough for any significant Labor claw back.

$1000 to you , from me, if this happens May 18

Adz’s prediction from May 6: Close enough GreyCrow. If you’ve any integrity at all you’ll pay the $1,000.

 

[GreyCrow]

Adz’s prediction from May 6: Close enough GreyCrow. If you’ve any integrity at all you’ll pay the $1,000.

He had to accept it first. Poor adz

 

[TimmeT]

$1000 to you , from me, if this happens May 18

That sounds like a unilateral offer with no requirement to accept. You should meet your end.

 

[Adz]

Adz’s prediction from May 6: Close enough GreyCrow. If you’ve any integrity at all you’ll pay the $1,000.

Pay up Grey Crow.

 

[Adz]

What seats? What margin?

If you are so confident name the seats they are going to win and what, if any, are their losses to counter balance to ensure they get to the magical 76 (remember they only have 73 following the redistribution)?

You can get $4.50 on that outcome. You're going to wake up a very rich man on May 19 at this rate.

You need a bex and a lie down.....You have had too much Koolaid.....


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Firstly, that is not majority government which is what you predicted a couple of hours ago. Secondly, that means Labor are going to lose 3 seats they nominally hold now and gain none. Or lose 3 more than they gain. Dunkley and Chisolm just off the top of my head are two near certain gains for Labor. What seats are they going to lose?

So in effect it’s two oppositions looking to be elected

$1000 to you , from me, if this happens May 18

Oh, dear.

Right now, at this minute, there are 4 seats minimum in Victoria that the Government will lose, 3 seats in NSW that look good things to fall plus some country seats that may go to independents from the Nationals, in Qld. there will probably be 3 that will fall, in Boothby looks forelorn for the Liberals and in WA, 2 seats are very, very vulnerable and maybe even 4 but let's say 2.

Thats a total of 13 by my reckoning that are odds on for the Liberals to lose. You have to remember that right now, the parliament is notionally 77 seats NON Liberal/National Party plus Katter and the Liberal/National Party Coalition have 73 seats, that is, the Coalition must gain 2 seats straight off to govern with Katter's help.

Which 15 seats (13 + 2) do you reckon the Coalition will pick up to form a minority government with Katter?

Dude didn't you JUST say you believe the liberals will form government in their own right?

You spew so much **** you can't even maintain a simple narative.

Plus you can add in almost the entire state of Victoria...
Fantasy land stuff, they’re not getting close to forming government

FACT: I said Shorten was campaigning terribly and the car policy was dumb and Labor we’re going too hard too soon.

FACT: I said any ALP gains would be little if any due to being offset by the Coalitions gains.

FACT: I said that the Coalition only had to a few win seats even to remain in government as they were ahead of Labor.

FACT: I said Labor couldn’t win with a primary below 38.

FACT: I called a majority Coalition gov (the only one on this forum)

FACT: I made a hell of a lot of money last weekend.

In the end I overestimated Labor seats.

Mock me all you want, I clearly better equipped to judge such things.

Forget the polls. I’ll be posting quarterly 2PP for Vic politics. At the stage Labor will not win the best state election.

 

[pjcrows]

You certainly showed us.

 

[tandino]

Calling out people on here is a bit meh.

Calling out people in the media, go for your life.

David Crowe, Katherine Murphy and Barrie Cassidy had a mare, analysis driven heavily by opinion polling and thus made worthless. Amy Remeikis not much better.

 

[Fire]

Why was I quoted in a gloat tweet when what I said in my quote was accurate?

Crazies gonna crazy.

 

[Bombermania]

Whilst I was well out in seat numbers there were a few areas that went as expected,

-NSW pretty much went as expected with the LNP holding Banks, Robertson and Reid.
-Queensland, Northern Queensland wasn't that much of a surprise as I did tip the LNP would hold Capricornia, but the real surprise was the seats closer to Brisbane where the ALP copped a hiding.
-SA went as expected.
-WA was the one that really blew a hole in my predictions where a swag of seats failed to swing to the ALP.
-Victoria was mixed with a few surprises but mostly as expected.
-Tassie, seemed to come from nowhere as the campaign proceeded, one has to wonder if the LNP could have won a third if it was for the candidate being sacked.

All the 50:50's broke to the LNP.

 

[Bombermania]

Calling out people on here is a bit meh.

Calling out people in the media, go for your life.

David Crowe, Katherine Murphy and Barrie Cassidy had a mare, analysis driven heavily by opinion polling and thus made worthless. Amy Remeikis not much better.

Barrie Cassidy kind of picked it on one of his twitter videos.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

With one clear exception, that’s shameful.

The average result for the Bigfooty pundits was ~ ALP 87

What a disgrace.

I think most of us were led largely by the polls, which begs the question as to why the professionals were so wrong.
I wonder if response rates were low? Just a suspicion, that when that is case maybe the incumbent (of whichever stripe) gets a stronger vote than the polls forecast. I don't have numbers on that, just a hunch that maybe those who don't respond are more likely to be disengaged and have less feeling toward the need for a change.

 

[Badesumofu]

Mock me all you want, I clearly better equipped to judge such things.

You also claimed Macnamara was a 'certain gain' gain for the Coalition. You're a clock who just happened to stop on May 18th. Congrats on your winnings though, I'm glad you took my advice and loaded up.

 

[DaRick]

Whilst I was well out in seat numbers there were a few areas that went as expected,

-NSW pretty much went as expected with the LNP holding Banks, Robertson and Reid.
-Queensland, Northern Queensland wasn't that much of a surprise as I did tip the LNP would hold Capricornia, but the real surprise was the seats closer to Brisbane where the ALP copped a hiding.
-SA went as expected.
-WA was the one that really blew a hole in my predictions where a swag of seats failed to swing to the ALP.
-Victoria was mixed with a few surprises but mostly as expected.
-Tassie, seemed to come from nowhere as the campaign proceeded, one has to wonder if the LNP could have won a third if it was for the candidate being sacked.

All the 50:50's broke to the LNP.

A lot of this was caused by UAP/ON/Anning preferencing the LNP.

For example, in Petrie the LNP primary vote swung towards the LNP, but by 3%. That would have put Luke Howarth on a margin of 4.5%, not the eventual 8.5%.