Opinion Should the AFL introduce draft pick protection?

Aug 28, 2010
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It's been the talk all season list-management wise. Carlton, during the 2018 AFL draft, decided to trade it's 2019 first round pick to Adelaide in exchange for pick 19 and Adelaide's 2019 first round pick.

Now this isn't a post about whether they should've done it, nor is it a post about whether Liam Stocker will end up being worth it. It's also not a post about what Carlton would've done had they not done the trade - many Carlton people believe they would've traded it this year anyway.

This is a post about whether the AFL should introduce pick protection, similar to the NBA. The reason I'd like to raise this question, is because as things stand at the end of round 13, Adelaide sit in the top 4 and are primed for a tilt at the flag, while Carlton languish dead last in 18th. There is still a way to go in the season, but it is not unconceivable that Adelaide could win the premiership, and also receive pick 1 in the draft. This goes against everything the AFL have sought to achieve with their 'equalisation' mantra.

For those who are unfamiliar with how the NBA draft works, there is a system of 'protected' picks. I will use an example with AFL teams:

Let's pretend Richmond traded their 2019 first round draft pick to North Melbourne.

However, Richmond's pick is top 10 protected.

What does this mean?

It simply means that if Richmond's draft pick ends up being in the top 10, they get to keep their pick. In the NBA, when a draft pick is top 10 protected, the pick will defer to the next draft at which point there is no protection. In this example, if Richmond's pick ended up being in the top 10, North Melbourne would get Richmond's 2020 first round pick.

This system gives teams a fail-safe when trading future first round picks and could deter potential catastrophic list management choices like the Carlton one.

Some of you may argue 'well that's Carlton's choice, you make your bed now lie in it', which is a fair argument, and I'm sure Adelaide fans will be thinking it. However I believe with the current system in place, there is nothing stopping clubs from making the same mistake Carlton have.

Thoughts?
 

Peel67skin

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It's been the talk all season list-management wise. Carlton, during the 2018 AFL draft, decided to trade it's 2019 first round pick to Adelaide in exchange for pick 19 and Adelaide's 2019 first round pick.

Now this isn't a post about whether they should've done it, nor is it a post about whether Liam Stocker will end up being worth it. It's also not a post about what Carlton would've done had they not done the trade - many Carlton people believe they would've traded it this year anyway.

This is a post about whether the AFL should introduce pick protection, similar to the NBA. The reason I'd like to raise this question, is because as things stand at the end of round 13, Adelaide sit in the top 4 and are primed for a tilt at the flag, while Carlton languish dead last in 18th. There is still a way to go in the season, but it is not unconceivable that Adelaide could win the premiership, and also receive pick 1 in the draft. This goes against everything the AFL have sought to achieve with their 'equalisation' mantra.

For those who are unfamiliar with how the NBA draft works, there is a system of 'protected' picks. I will use an example with AFL teams:

Let's pretend Richmond traded their 2019 first round draft pick to North Melbourne.

However, Richmond's pick is top 10 protected.

What does this mean?

It simply means that if Richmond's draft pick ends up being in the top 10, they get to keep their pick. In the NBA, when a draft pick is top 10 protected, the pick will defer to the next draft at which point there is no protection. In this example, if Richmond's pick ended up being in the top 10, North Melbourne would get Richmond's 2020 first round pick.

This system gives teams a fail-safe when trading future first round picks and could deter potential catastrophic list management choices like the Carlton one.

Some of you may argue 'well that's Carlton's choice, you make your bed now lie in it', which is a fair argument, and I'm sure Adelaide fans will be thinking it. However I believe with the current system in place, there is nothing stopping clubs from making the same mistake Carlton have.

Thoughts?
Can you buy a lotto ticket and get protected if you don't win anything back.
 

Peel67skin

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Funny you should mention the lotto seeing as the NBA has a draft lottery in order to prevent tanking.

In all seriousness though what you've said is vastly different.
Of course is different Australia driver drive on right hand side American driver drive on the left hand side. If there is protection rule do you think Adelaide trade two first Rd pick for one last year.
 

hippyhippy

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What if stocker actually was a superstar? Do Carlton still keep their pick?

I want to trade my future first for fife but I still want to keep the pick if we play sho1t next year.... makes sense.
 

AndyLucimitis

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I like how you say this isn't about the right or wrong of what Carlton did re the first pick and Liam Stocker....and then finish your post with the phrase 'deter potential catastrophic list management choices like the Carlton one. '

Funny - as I've spent years on here being lectured by Hawthorn supporters and others on how No.1 draft pick is overrated - expect for 2019 I'm supposing in which case it will have been the most valuable commodity the game has ever seen.

To answer your question - not a bad idea but don't the AFL have the rule already about not being able trade first and second round picks in the same year for this type of protection ?.
 
Aug 28, 2010
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If clubs want to take the gamble then they have to be prepared to lose

I agree.

In 2013 the Brooklyn Nets made one of the worst trades in NBA history. They traded Kris Humphries, Gerald Wallace, Kris Joseph, MarShon Brooks and Keith Bogans as well as unprotected first round picks in 2014, 2016 and 2018 for ageing stars Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Jason Terry. The Nets lost in the 2nd round of the play-offs and those players left the team soon after.

To make matters worse, Boston turned those picks into Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown and Kyrie Irving. I won't bore you with how Brooklyn have done the past few seasons - I'm sure you can make out they did quite poorly.

The point I'm making is that having a protection system does not mean that every future pick will be protected when traded - it will be up to the clubs to decide that.

Draft protection is such a stupid concept & I hate it in the NBA. You take the risk, you get the reward or take the loss. There should be no pity because you took a risk that didn't pay off.

See what I've said above. No team took pity in the Nets when they made that trade.
 
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Aug 28, 2010
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I like how you say this isn't about the right or wrong of what Carlton did re the first pick and Liam Stocker....and then finish your post with the phrase 'deter potential catastrophic list management choices like the Carlton one. '

Funny - as I've spent years on here being lectured by Hawthorn supporters and others on how No.1 draft pick is overrated - expect for 2019 I'm supposing in which case it will have been the most valuable commodity the game has ever seen.

To answer your question - not a bad idea but don't the AFL have the rule already about not being able trade first and second round picks in the same year for this type of protection ?.

Just because my thoughts on it are catastrophic doesn't mean that it was the sole purpose what I said. You're straw-manning my post a bit there.

Anyway, this is not what I wanted this discussion to be about.

You're correct with the current rules (two firsts every 4 year period etc.) but it doesn't stop a situation like the one we currently have where Adelaide are top 4 and have the number 1 pick.
 
Jul 6, 2017
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It is more holistic than draft pick protection. List management then has to be looked at as well ie a club decides to trade out a number of their better players to 'rebuild' and get high draft picks for the next few years, they have essentially traded out their other valuable commodity for the purpose of garnering high picks. If the argument is to protect clubs from trading out possible high picks then they should be penalised in some way for trading out their better players which affects their final ladder position

That said, in Carlton's case it is impossible for them to argue (and from what I am seeing they are not arguing) that they were blindsided in this trade considering they knew exactly where their list was at and had also decided to trade out mature age draft concessions in the same draft period for yet more draft picks. SOS himself had also argued what if Carlton finish above Adelaide. It really is a case of making a bed and then having to lay in it and that is how it should be
 
It's been the talk all season list-management wise. Carlton, during the 2018 AFL draft, decided to trade it's 2019 first round pick to Adelaide in exchange for pick 19 and Adelaide's 2019 first round pick.

Now this isn't a post about whether they should've done it, nor is it a post about whether Liam Stocker will end up being worth it. It's also not a post about what Carlton would've done had they not done the trade - many Carlton people believe they would've traded it this year anyway.

This is a post about whether the AFL should introduce pick protection, similar to the NBA. The reason I'd like to raise this question, is because as things stand at the end of round 13, Adelaide sit in the top 4 and are primed for a tilt at the flag, while Carlton languish dead last in 18th. There is still a way to go in the season, but it is not unconceivable that Adelaide could win the premiership, and also receive pick 1 in the draft. This goes against everything the AFL have sought to achieve with their 'equalisation' mantra.

For those who are unfamiliar with how the NBA draft works, there is a system of 'protected' picks. I will use an example with AFL teams:

Let's pretend Richmond traded their 2019 first round draft pick to North Melbourne.

However, Richmond's pick is top 10 protected.

What does this mean?

It simply means that if Richmond's draft pick ends up being in the top 10, they get to keep their pick. In the NBA, when a draft pick is top 10 protected, the pick will defer to the next draft at which point there is no protection. In this example, if Richmond's pick ended up being in the top 10, North Melbourne would get Richmond's 2020 first round pick.

This system gives teams a fail-safe when trading future first round picks and could deter potential catastrophic list management choices like the Carlton one.

Some of you may argue 'well that's Carlton's choice, you make your bed now lie in it', which is a fair argument, and I'm sure Adelaide fans will be thinking it. However I believe with the current system in place, there is nothing stopping clubs from making the same mistake Carlton have.

Thoughts?
Clearly this would never be abused by clubs low on the ladder who are rebuilding....
 

Cleric

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In the Carlton example there would be no way to tell if the pick swap wasnt worth it. For instance:
With pick 19 Carlton get Stocker.
If Adelaides first this year is pick 12, and they could draft a Cam Taheny for instance, how does the AFL make a judgement that this isnt worth the pick swap? These trade outcomes wont be known for years after. And in this instance, if Carlton did get pick 1 back, do the Crows then get their 2019 first rounder back, and does Stocker then become a Crows player?
Its unworkable.
 
In the Carlton example there would be no way to tell if the pick swap wasnt worth it. For instance:
With pick 19 Carlton get Stocker.
If Adelaides first this year is pick 12, and they could draft a Cam Taheny for instance, how does the AFL make a judgement that this isnt worth the pick swap? These trade outcomes wont be known for years after. And in this instance, if Carlton did get pick 1 back, do the Crows then get their 2019 first rounder back, and does Stocker then become a Crows player?
Its unworkable.
And yet other sports use it.
 

banzai

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So what?
Like I asked, would the Crows get their pick and Stocker back?
AFL is more likely to ban clubs trading top 3 picks.

The protection is organised by the 2 clubs. So lets say Carlton had a top 3 protection on the 2019 pick and finish last, it would then be Carlton's 2020 first pick that would go to Adelaide. That could also then be protected. Usually the protection decreases each year though, but its all negotiated by both teams involved.
 
It's hard to compare the NBA to the AFL - A top 10 pick is more highly rated in basketball as well as being more valuable, as one player makes a bigger difference in a five a side team, as compared to the AFL which has 22 players on the field.
 
It's hard to compare the NBA to the AFL - A top 10 pick is more highly rated in basketball as well as being more valuable, as one player makes a bigger difference in a five a side team, as compared to the AFL which has 22 players on the field.
Yet needing less players means giving up a pick can be covered quicker.
 
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