Prediction Who finishes highest out of Bulldogs, Essendon and Hawthorn in 2020?

[HairyO]

No one can predict what the ladder will look like but one thing for certain is that Doggies fans get really offended when you say their team sucks.

I look forward to Richmond sliding and the Tiggers demanding a new coach mid season.

 

[Foucault1989]

I wouldn't say Essendon have barren KP stocks. KPF stocks are thin yes, but not defenders at all. If you are talking about long term, Hooker and Hurley are getting on, but this thread is all about 2020. Besides them, Ambrose is also a decent KPD. Francis may be best as a intercepting third tall, but can certainly play as a KPD and did well playing Hurley's role. Brandon Zerk-Thatcher is a young 195cm KPD who was very promising the VFL. He would of got more games at AFL level if we weren't already well stocked there. Then there is Cian McBride a 197cm Irishman we just got. He will obviously take some time, but we have options.
As for Key forwards you kind of have a point, but we are only relying on McKernan due to Daniher and Stewart being injured. We could also play Hooker forward now that he has slowed down a bit. Most teams don't have two star key forwards. We also just drafted a young kpf (Harrison Jones) and drafted Gown (had injuries) recently too.
So the list management for KPPs isn't nearly as bad as you're making out.

Ruck stocks aren't great, but Phillips is certainly an upgrade over Clarke, who was a liability in most games. Draper was injured last year too which didn't help. He has been really promising in the VFL as a young ruckman. We also just drafted a young ruckman (Nick Bryan).
Besides the nearly 31 year old Kreuzer, who has Carlton got anyways? Pittonet? De Koning showed a bit in the VFL, but hasn't nearly played games as dominant as Draper has.

As for inside mids - yes we are lacking. Dodoro has gone after some inside mids like Wines, but unfortunately was not successful. It's not like hes not trying, but I agree our stocks are not good enough and that is a failure on his part.
I personally would prefer a change and think Dodoro should go, but saying we have not addressed our deficiencies (which you have grossly exaggerated) at all is false.

Thanks for the detailed response. From what I read there is that while you have some young and upcoming key position players, they are largely unproven and unsighted at afl level and I'd think you'd agree with that. Ideally it would have been helpful to have a couple more ready to go players to fill those roles. I'm a huge fan if Francis in that intercept defender role, I've heard big wraps on Draper so you might have a good one there, not sure Stewart will ever be much more than a third tall forward, and Ambrose is Ok. It would have been great to have had an early pick in the 2018 draft to get someone like a Ben King. He would have been perfect. The double firsts on Shiel was a big move. I'm actually surprised Essendon didn't make a play for Casboult. He is a decent and very versatile swingman. Can take a grab up forward, handy as a second ruck and he can do a role down back

With respect to bringing carlton in, I agree...bit thin in the ruck stocks. We do have Casboult and a developing McKay as decent second rucks which extends our stocks slightly

 

[Mofra]

Ruck stocks aren't great, but Phillips is certainly an upgrade over Clarke, who was a liability in most games. Draper was injured last year too which didn't help. He has been really promising in the VFL as a young ruckman. We also just drafted a young ruckman (Nick Bryan).

As for inside mids - yes we are lacking. Dodoro has gone after some inside mids like Wines, but unfortunately was not successful. It's not like hes not trying, but I agree our stocks are not good enough and that is a failure on his part.

I still the rucks as a weak area for Essendon, Phillips is serviceable and Bellchambers a warrier but both are likely to be up against it when facing most opposition ruck set ups.

Mitch Hibberd would slot into your midfield perfectly. You only need one bull to add to your mix, chame he picked up an injury as he could easily play every game next year if fit. He has to be an upgrade on Myers.

 

[Milanista28]

Fixed it for you . I was at that match. It was hilarious.

The loudest cheer of the night was the Bulldogs fans cheering our 2nd goal, was brilliant.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

One of those teams shouldnt be in that list.

Essendon are in for a bottom 4 finish, they have had a horror run since the end of last season.

Trade period was a mess and they have been super unlucky with their preseason injury list. An underdone list, particularly key players, cannot be under rated.

Dogs should be awesome and im confident with a fit patton/mitchell we can give it a good nudge too.

But the dons will do a 2019 melbourne this year.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

They saw Frost as a massive coup (he’s actually a headless chicken who’s calves are screwed)

They did??

Useful signing? Yes.
Massive coup? No. Nobody has said that.

 

[csharp]

Why are they automatically contenders? Last year they lost to teams who didn't even make the eight, and only snuck in and got knocked out in the first round. How are they "contenders"?

Because we have the best midfield of the three. Any team with a quartet of Bontempelli, Macrae, Dunkley and English is bound to be fancied. We had our problems in 2019, but a lot of them were ironed out in the back end of the year, and we've clearly improved over the off-season.

As for our loss against GWS, Richmond had three consecutive years of bowing straight out of the finals from 2013-2015. You shouldn't read too much into individual games.

 

[supportyourteam]

One of those teams shouldnt be in that list.

Essendon are in for a bottom 4 finish, they have had a horror run since the end of last season.

Trade period was a mess and they have been super unlucky with their preseason injury list. An underdone list, particularly key players, cannot be under rated.

Dogs should be awesome and im confident with a fit patton/mitchell we can give it a good nudge too.

But the dons will do a 2019 melbourne this year.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

Trades are for hope, drafting is the club.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Hawks for me - im basing it on actual performances not hype - alah the Bulldogs

Hawks finished the season very well culminating in a comprehensive 40 point flogging of West Coast ( who had the top 4 spot on the line ) over in Perth - dont mind the 2 key position recruits they have brought in either

Bulldogs - all the hype - reminds me of Melb coming into season 2019. Footscrays last game in the 2019 was that losing final against 2019 - bottom line they got annihilated - and they lost the inside 50 count by about 50 - anyone who watched that game - the only logical conclusion you could draw - is there is still alot of holes in that team - i think the StKilda recruit theve got - there are question marks on him . All this hype yet GWS ( who were found wanting themselves) flogged them

With Essendon - when are they going to come good - they can pull out a great win every now and again - but they cant play a consistent block of 8-10 games - just too inconsistent .

 

[csharp]

Hawks for me - im basing it on actual performances not hype - alah the Bulldogs

Hawks finished the season very well culminating in a comprehensive 40 point flogging of West Coast ( who had the top 4 spot on the line ) over in Perth - dont mind the 2 key position recruits they have brought in either

Bulldogs - all the hype - reminds me of Melb coming into season 2019. Footscrays last game in the 2019 was that losing final against 2019 - bottom line they got annihilated - and they lost the inside 50 count by about 50 - anyone who watched that game - the only logical conclusion you could draw - is there is still alot of holes in that team - i think the StKilda recruit theve got - there are question marks on him . All this hype yet GWS ( who were found wanting themselves) flogged them

With Essendon - when are they going to come good - they can pull out a great win every now and again - but they cant play a consistent block of 8-10 games - just too inconsistent .

Reading way too much into one game: The Post.

No clue.

 

[Joao]

Dogs is my favourite list in the comp (aside from Freo of course) but for 2020 I can easily see the Hawks being their equal or more.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Reading way too much into one game: The Post.

No clue.

No i dont just dismiss games like that - they happen for a reason - because they are no where near good enough

Go back one season to the 2018 season - Melbournes last game - the prelim against West Coast - they got annihilated - they got badly shown up - there were holes aplenty in their side

Yet how many people said - forget it its only one game - how many tipped Melb for last years flag - plenty - they finished bottom four

 

[csharp]

No i dont just dismiss games like that - they happen for a reason - because they are no where near good enough

Go back one season to the 2018 season - Melbournes last game - the prelim against West Coast - they got annihilated - they got badly shown up - there were holes aplenty in their side

Yet how many people said - forget it its only one game - how many tipped Melb for last years flag - plenty - they finished bottom four

Just admit you have an agenda against us That, or you have no clue

Richmond - 3 consecutive years of being beaten convincingly in the first final, then don't make the finals at all the following year, then they win the flag.

So you believe Melbourne getting thumped by West Coast in the Prelim then sucking the next year somehow proves you right? Not even going to try and understand the surrounding circumstances?
How about remembering that we smashed GWS a couple weeks earlier? I guess that would conflict with your agenda . Wouldn't bode well for you to admit that sometimes teams just have bad games, like Hawthorn did many times last year.

We'll be fine.

 

[Brass Dog]

No i dont just dismiss games like that - they happen for a reason - because they are no where near good enough

Go back one season to the 2018 season - Melbournes last game - the prelim against West Coast - they got annihilated - they got badly shown up - there were holes aplenty in their side

Yet how many people said - forget it its only one game - how many tipped Melb for last years flag - plenty - they finished bottom four

Melbourne had a heap of players going through post season surgeries which carried into 2019, and the 6-6-6 rule changes affected their game plan the most.

We’ve got 40 players currently in full training, and of the injured, Libba is the only senior best 22 player.

At the start of 2019, there was a bit of experimenting with different set ups. At the back half of the year our line up was settled and we went 8 wins, 3 losses. We were definitely exposed/ bullied in the final. I’m expecting with a more mature line up, that won’t happen. I think we’ll have a much more consistent year in 2020

 

[GuzzLG]

Looking at teams finishing around the 8th place cut off in recent years, one team will go top 4, one will still be on the cusp of th 8 and one will drop.

essendon have been around that mark for three years now. Very consistent

Everyone says Essendon are hard to predict

2017: 12-10
2018: 12-10
2019: 12-10

Easily the most predictable consistent team in the league (across a whole season)

 

[juss]

Dogs, I have them as the outside smokey that can win the flag if everything goes right.

 

[Great8]

Dogs -Top 6
Hawks - Middle 6
Bombers - Bottom 6
We will slide big time this year

 

[Ambrosia]

Thanks for the detailed response. From what I read there is that while you have some young and upcoming key position players, they are largely unproven and unsighted at afl level and I'd think you'd agree with that. Ideally it would have been helpful to have a couple more ready to go players to fill those roles. I'm a huge fan if Francis in that intercept defender role, I've heard big wraps on Draper so you might have a good one there, not sure Stewart will ever be much more than a third tall forward, and Ambrose is Ok. It would have been great to have had an early pick in the 2018 draft to get someone like a Ben King. He would have been perfect. The double firsts on Shiel was a big move. I'm actually surprised Essendon didn't make a play for Casboult. He is a decent and very versatile swingman. Can take a grab up forward, handy as a second ruck and he can do a role down back

With respect to bringing carlton in, I agree...bit thin in the ruck stocks. We do have Casboult and a developing McKay as decent second rucks which extends our stocks slightly

Don’t really see much difference between Mckernan and Casboult for him to be a worthwhile addition.

 

[Ambrosia]

I still the rucks as a weak area for Essendon, Phillips is serviceable and Bellchambers a warrier but both are likely to be up against it when facing most opposition ruck set ups.

Mitch Hibberd would slot into your midfield perfectly. You only need one bull to add to your mix, chame he picked up an injury as he could easily play every game next year if fit. He has to be an upgrade on Myers.

I feel our ruck woes are are over stated and tbh unless you have Grundy or Gawn I don’t think ruckman are really moving the needle much on game day.

Essendon went 6-3 with Zach Clarke in the side last year who many people lauded as the worst player in the AFL.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Worth mentioning Bombers and Bulldogs were only three wins off the top 4.
While Hawthorn had a better percentage, they were three losses off the bottom 4.

Its not cut and dried

At the same time, percentage is one of the best indicators for true quality of a side (although you'd need to also control for fixture difficulty)

In terms of top and middle of the pack teams:
Dogs beat Hawks, Richmond, Geelong, Brisbane, Port, GWS, Essendon and Adelaide.

Essendon beat Brisbane, Hawks, GWS and Adelaide while the rest of their wins came against poorer quality sides.

Hawks beat Adelaide, GWS, Port, Collingwood, Geelong, GWS and West Coast.

It's pretty clear which of the 3 teams is the outlier in terms of which teams they've managed to beat. I'd be picking Dogs and Hawks for potential top 4 finishes (more likely 5-8) while I think Essendon will be a fair way off

 

[csharp]

I feel our ruck woes are are over stated and tbh unless you have Grundy or Gawn I don’t think ruckman are really moving the needle much on game day.

Essendon went 6-3 with Zach Clarke in the side last year who many people lauded as the worst player in the AFL.

Forget about ruck, your team's problem is in the midfield. Heppell, Merrett and Shiel are good players, outside of that trio you're very weak.

I know Worsfold loves his rebound from defence game plan, but it's not going to hold up in finals.

 

[The Warlord]

Dogs are going to be very hard to beat, especially at Docklands. Keath and Bruce very very astute recruits.

Hawthorn - hard to tell, maybe sneak into the eight, I reckon more likely 10-13th.

The Bombers - bottom four material.

 

[The Warlord]

Forget about ruck, your team's problem is in the midfield. Heppell, Merrett and Shiel are good players, outside of that trio you're very weak.

I know Worsfold loves his rebound from defence game plan, but it's not going to hold up in finals.

It DOESN'T hold up in finals, I think that's been fairly well established by now.

 

[owen87]

Dogs I think are well placed, English is coming in to the right age bracket to be a solid ruckman, and has a great midfield to work with. Think they're a 4 - 8 team.

Hawthorn likely a 6 - 12 type team, lack the star power of the Dogs but are very well coached and with Patton, Frost and Hartley giving them more KPP depth it allows guys like Sicily and Gunston to be more damaging players.

Essendon the enigma, likely 8 - 12 again, but with a good injury run out of Daniher, Fantasia and Smith they're a completely different side, along with Caracella generally having success wherever he's been. Could be anywhere from 4th to 16th.

 

[The Warlord]

Dogs I think are well placed, English is coming in to the right age bracket to be a solid ruckman, and has a great midfield to work with. Think they're a 4 - 8 team.

Hawthorn likely a 6 - 12 type team, lack the star power of the Dogs but are very well coached and with Patton, Frost and Hartley giving them more KPP depth it allows guys like Sicily and Gunston to be more damaging players.

Essendon the enigma, likely 8 - 12 again, but with a good injury run out of Daniher, Fantasia and Smith they're a completely different side, along with Caracella generally having success wherever he's been. Could be anywhere from 4th to 16th.

Do you honestly reckon that'll happen though?

I mean, yes, he'll probably come back for the games against us and kick six in each, but from what I've read, it doesn't seem like he's going to play extended footy.