Prediction Our side round 1, 2020...?

Hey Dlanod, I’m talking about a “fine tune” not wholesale changes to our forward line.

Surely a ranking of 17th calls for a wholescale change? After all, that's the stat you brought to the table.

Specifically on McStay, if one of the kids develops to the point where they can provide a combination of contested marking and the ability to bring the ball to ground even if they don't mark it - I expect they'll get a go. I do not fondly remember the years not too long ago where our players were bullied off their line and the ball leading to defensive uncontested marks.

However, I find the unquestioned use of Champion Data rankings ridiculous even if they're just trying to be attached as a different spin to a regularly made point. Those rankings are much more worthy of questioning than McStay's current value to the team. Using the team rankings to make a point about a specific player is even sillier.
 

Royboy1961

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We have the number 1 ranked midfield and are ranked 17th for forward lines. Fagan needs to fix this otherwise we are going to go backwards. As the above article makes clear, we need a true full forward and that isn’t McStay. “But he plays his role,” people say, well he does, as the full forward in the forward line ranked 17th in the competition. He’s had his chances. You can be guaranteed that we will see changes here in season 2020. I would keep McStay in the side though, but play him in defence where he belongs.
For their forward entries they rely on getting the ball in quickly so that Cameron can play one on one and kick miracle goals. They do not rely on spotting up a leading forward that much. This game plan was exposed in the finals when both Richmond and GWS played an extra man in defence to intercept the ball in the air where we lost our advantage. Obviously we need to develop as a team and kick goals in other ways. From memory we didn’t win by huge margins last year so as a team we can improve in many ways. That being said we were only one kick from playing in the grand final so what are stats worth?
 

M Malice

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Hey Dlanod, I’m talking about a “fine tune” not wholesale changes to our forward line. Let’s see what Fagan does. You can bet he has looked at the last quarter of the GWS final more than once and had a think about our forward set up. One thing for sure, if Fagan does move McStay away from Full Forward there will be plenty of posters on our board falling into line and portraying Fagan’s move as a common sense decision.
I see McStay as in our best 22, but in the backline. He is a quality young man and a genuine long term asset to our club. He has speed, courage, can take a grab and as a poster pointed out in the JLT thread, a good disposal efficiency rate. I would like to see McStay playing in Witherden’s place.
The last quarter against GWS was more about our players bombing it in long rather than the forwards not doing their job IMO.

Speaking of which... that was one of the most frustrating quarters of footy I have ever watched, never shaken my head, stamped my feet, slapped my thigh and sworn under my breath as much in my life.
cef9ca8a8fbaa7a319ddf3bfab541069.gif
 

Scubaveg

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Hey Dlanod, I’m talking about a “fine tune” not wholesale changes to our forward line. Let’s see what Fagan does. You can bet he has looked at the last quarter of the GWS final more than once and had a think about our forward set up. One thing for sure, if Fagan does move McStay away from Full Forward there will be plenty of posters on our board falling into line and portraying Fagan’s move as a common sense decision.
I see McStay as in our best 22, but in the backline. He is a quality young man and a genuine long term asset to our club. He has speed, courage, can take a grab and as a poster pointed out in the JLT thread, a good disposal efficiency rate. I would like to see McStay playing in Witherden’s place.

Interested to know who on the list you would replace McStay with and what they will bring to the role and so better in the role then McStay does. And then by how much, what is the measure for additional value and does that come at the expense of value the team gets from McStay?


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The last quarter against GWS was more about our players bombing it in long rather than the forwards not doing their job IMO.

Speaking of which... that was one of the most frustrating quarters of footy I have ever watched, never shaken my head, stamped my feet, slapped my thigh and sworn under my breath as much in my life.
cef9ca8a8fbaa7a319ddf3bfab541069.gif

Second worst quarter to watch that I recall, after the third quarter in the 2004 GF.
 

M Malice

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Second worst quarter to watch that I recall, after the third quarter in the 2004 GF.
Ah yes, I was there for that one as well, only about 15 rows back from the Lynch-Wakelin fracas, we could feel the wind off Lynchys wild swings. Sat there stunned after the final siren listening to that irritating Port song played seemingly endlessly.
 
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Ah yes, I was there for that one as well, only about 15 rows back from the Lynch-Wakelin fracas, we could feel the wind off Lynchys wild swings. Sat there stunned after the final siren listening to that irritating Port song played seemingly endlessly.
I would have been spitting distance from you for that game. God I hate Port
 
Surely a ranking of 17th calls for a wholescale change? After all, that's the stat you brought to the table.

Specifically on McStay, if one of the kids develops to the point where they can provide a combination of contested marking and the ability to bring the ball to ground even if they don't mark it - I expect they'll get a go. I do not fondly remember the years not too long ago where our players were bullied off their line and the ball leading to defensive uncontested marks.

However, I find the unquestioned use of Champion Data rankings ridiculous even if they're just trying to be attached as a different spin to a regularly made point. Those rankings are much more worthy of questioning than McStay's current value to the team. Using the team rankings to make a point about a specific player is even sillier.
We’ll see what Fagan thinks. The changes I would suggest are not wholesale:

1. McStay to the HB line.

2. Fagan to look at and trial other options at Full Forward. When people praise McStay they always refer to him performing his role, which is to make a contest, bring the ball to ground and apply forward defensive pressure. They seldom mention taking contested marks inside 50 and kicking goals. I believe we have players on our list who can perform the same “role” as McStay and given time and development, will also take marks and kick goals. If I’m wrong, then we draft one, which was the point of the article in The Age. Others can see this.

3. Oscar McInerney to spend more time deep in the forward line

4. Continue to work with Charlie Cameron on minor adjustments so that he isn’t scragged out of games. He and Fagan have both said this is required. Charlie is going to get targeted like never before this year, but he is up to it.

Hardly “wholesale” but I don’t want this to be about semantics. I say again, McStay is BEST 22 but not at Full Forward.

It’s going to give us all something else to talk about if Fagan draws the same conclusion.
 
My issue, as I said in each post, was that you consider our forward line to be the 17th ranked in the league - below what I consider demonstrably worse examples. I disagree with that premise, but even accepting that is your opinion I would've then expected it would mean we need significant changes to improve from such a low base to an acceptable level.
 
My issue, as I said in each post, was that you consider our forward line to be the 17th ranked in the league - below what I consider demonstrably worse examples. I disagree with that premise, but even accepting that is your opinion I would've then expected it would mean we need significant changes to improve from such a low base to an acceptable level.
The ranking of 17th ranked forward line in the competition came from Champion Data and was cited in Jake Niall’s article it didn’t come from me. I’m a secondary school teacher, not a statistician, I defer to them when it comes to sports rankings, although I imagine that if they just made stuff up or got it wrong they would not have the prominence they enjoy in the sports industry. As people are well aware, in a very even AFL competition small adjustments can make a very big difference to outcomes. It’s a close competition as we all know. In the spirit of debate and dialogue, I have suggested four changes that I believe will lift our effectiveness in the forward line. Happy to hear from others and don’t mind if people disagree. It’s a discussion. Ultimately let’s see what adjustments Fagan makes to our forward set up. You can bet he will make some, though they won’t be ‘wholesale.’
Have a great day. 👍
 
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jackess

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The team with the 17th best forward line was the top scoring team; if you can’t see an issue with that then there is something seriously wrong with you.
 
Good thought process. What do you make of us being the top scoring team in the competition this year though.
Lots of goals out of the midfield. Here’s our totals from 2019. My fear is that if midfield goals dry up we will be in strife. Other coaches have worked this out.
Player​
Club​
Gm​
Gls​
Bds​
C Cameron​
24​
57​
32​
23​
35​
29​
23​
23​
14​
24​
23​
19​
24​
21​
16​
24​
20​
13​
24​
20​
25​
23​
17​
12​
13​
16​
9​
24​
14​
10​
24​
12​
7​
21​
10​
7​
20​
8​
10​
24​
5​
7​
15​
5​
5​
24​
4​
4​
9​
4​
3​
5​
3​
5​
19​
2​
0​
23​
2​
3​
24​
1​
0

Apologies to Bastinac and anyone else missed.
 
Last edited:

jackess

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Lots of goals out of the midfield. Here’s our totals from 2019. My fear is that if midfield goals dry up we will be in strife. Other coaches have worked this out.
Player​
Club​
Gm​
Gls​
Bds​
C Cameron​
24​
57​
32​
23​
35​
29​
23​
23​
14​
24​
23​
19​
24​
21​
16​
24​
20​
13​
24​
20​
25​
23​
17​
12​
13​
16​
9​
24​
14​
10​
24​
12​
7​
21​
10​
7​
20​
8​
10​
24​
5​
7​
15​
5​
5​
24​
4​
4​
9​
4​
3​
5​
3​
5​
19​
2​
0​
23​
2​
3​
24​
1​
0

Do the midfielders kick them all from outside 50 or do a lot of them come from the forwards providing a strong contest and holding it inside 50?
 

jackess

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Personally, we should’ve just retained the recently contracted Schache (and played McStay).

With all the mental health stuff going on recently I don't think it wouldve been a good move.
 
Personally, we should’ve just retained the recently contracted Schache (and played McStay).
I see Oscar as a legitimate option. Played a key part in swinging these two games. In the first he was menacing at Full Forward.



 
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Lots of goals out of the midfield. Here’s our totals from 2019. My fear is that if midfield goals dry up we will be in strife. Other coaches have worked this out.
Player​
Club​
Gm​
Gls​
Bds​
C Cameron​
24​
57​
32​
23​
35​
29​
23​
23​
14​
24​
23​
19​
24​
21​
16​
24​
20​
13​
24​
20​
25​
23​
17​
12​
13​
16​
9​
24​
14​
10​
24​
12​
7​
21​
10​
7​
20​
8​
10​
24​
5​
7​
15​
5​
5​
24​
4​
4​
9​
4​
3​
5​
3​
5​
19​
2​
0​
23​
2​
3​
24​
1​
0
Apologies to Bastinac and anyone else missed.

Oh cool
 

morsie

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The last quarter against GWS was more about our players bombing it in long rather than the forwards not doing their job IMO.

Speaking of which... that was one of the most frustrating quarters of footy I have ever watched, never shaken my head, stamped my feet, slapped my thigh and sworn under my breath as much in my life.
cef9ca8a8fbaa7a319ddf3bfab541069.gif
On the Couch showed several passages of play where we streaming forward we had open players and the ball was delivered straight to a defender.
 
We had a lot of shallow entries into the 50 and the tall forwards needed to move up. Anyway, it’s history now. I reckon we will smash them this year. Point to prove.
 

dizzysquizz

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Interested to know who on the list you would replace McStay with and what they will bring to the role and so better in the role then McStay does. And then by how much, what is the measure for additional value and does that come at the expense of value the team gets from McStay?


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Sam Skinner
 

Berrygood

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I remember having a conversation with my collingwood brother in law years ago, we were talking about 'the dancing with the stars' Cloke, cant think of his first name. Any way i remember hin saying, 'we persisted with cloke for such a long time up fwd when we needed more. He would have made such a good half back. He would of had such a better career.' Cloke sprayed them everywhere, as bad as mcstay. Are we getting to the stage where we bite the bullet and put him in defense. He could still have a very valuable 5yrs down back. He could certaimly fill whatever role birchall was brought in to play, hes a bit quicker than adams. He would fill the role at least till smith or prior develop.

I think the kpf role will be a focus this year. Make or break for mcstay as a fwd. I like the idea of the big O playing deep more. We can play an extra small if needed, or a mobile tall like wooler or fularton. Skinner might be a straight swap for mcstay, but isn't he just as yippy in front of goal. I dont think ballenden will have the chops. Lots for fagan to ponder.

At the end of the year, thru the looking glass, i can see us having a crack at a young ffwd and a ruckman during the trade period. A cpl of moves with long term benefit. Birchall one year n out. Mcstay moves to defense. Lions have a crack at darcy fogerty and brayden preuss. You never know, lol, Adelaide might have another crap year and fogarty wants out, preuss sick of being second fiddle sees life after martin. Just a thought.
 

Royboy1961

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I remember having a conversation with my collingwood brother in law years ago, we were talking about 'the dancing with the stars' Cloke, cant think of his first name. Any way i remember hin saying, 'we persisted with cloke for such a long time up fwd when we needed more. He would have made such a good half back. He would of had such a better career.' Cloke sprayed them everywhere, as bad as mcstay. Are we getting to the stage where we bite the bullet and put him in defense. He could still have a very valuable 5yrs down back. He could certaimly fill whatever role birchall was brought in to play, hes a bit quicker than adams. He would fill the role at least till smith or prior develop.

I think the kpf role will be a focus this year. Make or break for mcstay as a fwd. I like the idea of the big O playing deep more. We can play an extra small if needed, or a mobile tall like wooler or fularton. Skinner might be a straight swap for mcstay, but isn't he just as yippy in front of goal. I dont think ballenden will have the chops. Lots for fagan to ponder.

At the end of the year, thru the looking glass, i can see us having a crack at a young ffwd and a ruckman during the trade period. A cpl of moves with long term benefit. Birchall one year n out. Mcstay moves to defense. Lions have a crack at darcy fogerty and brayden preuss. You never know, lol, Adelaide might have another crap year and fogarty wants out, preuss sick of being second fiddle sees life after martin. Just a thought.
McStay has been trialled as a back man before and failed. He was ball,watching rather than worrying about his opponent. That is probably why he is 8n the forward line.
 
McStay has been trialled as a back man before and failed. He was ball,watching rather than worrying about his opponent. That is probably why he is 8n the forward line.
I think he would make an outstanding rebounding HBF. I would play him before Witherden.
 

Maroon Monsoon

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I think he would make an outstanding rebounding HBF. I would play him before Witherden.

Now there's an intriguing idea. He definitely has the field kicking skills, but my first thought was if people thought witho lacked pace in defence wait until they get a load of Dan
 
Now there's an intriguing idea. He definitely has the field kicking skills, but my first thought was if people thought witho lacked pace in defence wait until they get a load of Dan
Do you think McStay is slow? That’s interesting Maroon Monsoon. I wouldn’t have said that. I’ve always believed he does his best work running out of defence on long leads. What do others think? I might have missed it.
 
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