Coronavirus/COVID-19

Mar 15, 2012
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It's not even safe in Timbuktu
No reports of any virus in Antarctica though :)

Coming up to winter, there will just be a bunch of penguins in the dark down there. But no virus.
 
I was going to send a longer version of this to Bev & the Bulldogs, and to North Melbourne FC, prior to the Good Friday game but it seems superfluous now.

My daughter Josie got very ill in 2017 and I had to pretty much live in the ICU ward of the Royal Children's Hospital in Melbourne. Her heart got attacked by a virus/bacteria , possibly the flu, though we'll never know because she was too damaged to take a biopsy. At one stage she had forty doctors working on her. She was put on a special treatment called extra corporeal life support (ECMO) that requires 24 hour, extremely vigilant care from a specialist team of doctors & nurses. Machines do the work of your heart & lungs & circulatory system because your whole body has been overwhelmed by a virus.

There were a few patients on ECMO but not many because it's incredibly expensive & labour intensive. When Josie was first brought in, the doctors in ICU debated the wisdom of even bothering to treat her because she was so far gone from the heart attack. Some of the doctors thought she should be left to die; others thought she was pretty hopeless but she should be given the ECMO chance. Thankfully the latter won the day. Some coronavirus patients in the UK are currently on ECMO; it probably costs a million pounds a day per a handful of patients. If you are in the UK, thank you so much for paying your taxes & national health insurance. You saved peoples lives, and you continue to do so every day.

Some days they had to treat patients in the corridors in the children's hospital because they'd run out of beds. The RCH in Melbourne is one of the leading children's hospitals in the world; it largely functions because of the amazing charitable donations Victorians give every year. Thank you Victorians. You saved my daughter's life. You pay for her continued cardiac treatment..... One day two doctors and four nurses had to work frantically busily, yet with an eerie calm that only comes with experience & training, to save a teenage boy's life in the ICU corridor. Actually when I say save his life, he may well have died because you don't talk about that stuff in ICU. I did look into his mother's eyes and it's a look you don't want to see. Then again, she probably saw the same look in my eyes, because it was there every day as my daughter struggled between life and death after the virus destroyed a large part of her heart function...

When you die from coronavirus there won't be any family there. You'll die alone and the last faces you see are strange doctors and nurses. You'll be conscious right up to the end, because the virus overwhelms your lungs and heart before your brain dies. You'll drown on your own phlegm. The doctors and nurses will be so exhausted and overwhelmed they will not even text your family to tell them you have died, because there are so many half-dead corpses and bodies all over the hospital they can't even identify them. I found this out by watching the news from Europe on SBS this morning. They don't tell you this on channel 7 or channel 9 because it is too upsetting for you.

I am telling you this not shame you or scare you, you will be scared in a week's time. I am telling you this because you can still change.
 
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Because every responsible medical expert I’ve listened to says we IN AUSTRALIA can contain this in that ten period if we isolate sufficiently and continue to keep outside infections out.

Being an island and having a relatively low population spread over a vast area they all say this is entirely plausible for us.

The rest of the world could be different but I’m not referring to them.

And their will be a vaccine for this in early 2021 as several are being fastttached as we speak and the whole world is pushing them
That would still mean we'd have to stay social distancing and closed to the world for a very long time.

It certainly wouldn't be over in 8 weeks, even if we managed to have no new cases in week 8. As soon as we resume normal social & business interaction and international travel the virus starts spreading again. The so-called second wave.

So yes we might be able to "contain" it if we do everything right but we can't eradicate it.

FWIW the Spanish flu took 1-2 years to fade away. The reasons for it waning are still uncertain but that is obviously a topic of great interest to us now.
 

Mattdougie

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That would still mean we'd have to stay social distancing and closed to the world for a very long time.

It certainly wouldn't be over in 8 weeks, even if we managed to have no new cases in week 8. As soon as we resume normal social & business interaction and international travel the virus starts spreading again. The so-called second wave.

So yes we might be able to "contain" it if we do everything right but we can't eradicate it.

FWIW the Spanish flu took 1-2 years to fade away. The reasons for it waning are still uncertain but that is obviously a topic of great interest to us now.


If there are NO cases in Australia for a month then it’s gone HERE

It won’t suddenly appear out of nowhere and I did say I was only referring to us with being an island and having continued isolation from the rest of the world.

The Spanish flu was a century ago it’s impossible to compare them adequately with the improvement in health care and living standards.
 

Pugz89

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I can't get enjoyment from anyone who has the power to make positive changes to the world (or even just his own country) but only cares about money. That's the only thing he understands and his actions and words throughout this crises prove that. The emperor in his new clothes. "There's nothing to worry a about" - crap. "We have done the most testing in the world" - fudging figures. "We must be back up and running by Easter" - pressuring everyone but himself. But you're right, the hoedowners love it.

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My read is (and I could be wrong) his Easter comment was to try and ease stress and give hope. He didn't say they WILL re-open then, he said he wants to. Big difference. Contrast that to the messaging here that it could be 6-12 months, which imo seems a bit overblown as it stands. So we've overestimated, he's underestimated, but leaders need to offer hope. I personally have no issue with him saying he wants to open some parts of the country by Easter. He seems to have a good team by all accounts and will take their advice on board. As much as he comes across as an idiot sometimes, I don't believe he will put that country at risk of any significant long term damage given the election is only 8 months away.
 

BrisDog

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Dec 13, 2012
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My read is (and I could be wrong) his Easter comment was to try and ease stress and give hope. He didn't say they WILL re-open then, he said he wants to. Big difference. Contrast that to the messaging here that it could be 6-12 months, which imo seems a bit overblown as it stands. So we've overestimated, he's underestimated, but leaders need to offer hope. I personally have no issue with him saying he wants to open some parts of the country by Easter. He seems to have a good team by all accounts and will take their advice on board. As much as he comes across as an idiot sometimes, I don't believe he will put that country at risk of any significant long term damage given the election is only 8 months away.
He was appealing to his Evangelical base. Of which we really should not belong to considering he has admitted to not being religious previously and not being able to site a single verse from the bible. ‘They are all good’ I think his answer was to name his favourite verse.

Trump is a sign of where American society is at.

All-in-brawls at Woollies over toilet paper and ‘Go Sharkies’ represents where Australia currently sits.

Personally I think social media has transformed western society into a narcissist, moronic s**t fight.
 
1585430668323.png
 

King Harold

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If there are NO cases in Australia for a month then it’s gone HERE

It won’t suddenly appear out of nowhere and I did say I was only referring to us with being an island and having continued isolation from the rest of the world.

The Spanish flu was a century ago it’s impossible to compare them adequately with the improvement in health care and living standards.

there are plenty of lessons to be learnt even though it was 100 years ago MD
sure plenty has changed to help mitigate against this type of event.

But this virus is following a very similar pattern and despite all the advancement in medicine and technology it’s still going to kill a lot of people. Remember as it spreads fewer people will have access to A grade medical care.
If any in remote areas around the globe.

I like your optimism, and it’s a good thing for all of us to remain optimistic.
but real truth of the situation should never some political discretion .
 
I was only referring to us with being an island and having continued isolation from the rest of the world

yes, so even if we get it under control, perhaps even eliminate it - the rest of the world is going to be s**t for quite a while
 
If there are NO cases in Australia for a month then it’s gone HERE

It won’t suddenly appear out of nowhere and I did say I was only referring to us with being an island and having continued isolation from the rest of the world.

The Spanish flu was a century ago it’s impossible to compare them adequately with the improvement in health care and living standards.
Assuming for a moment the very unlikely prospect of us having no cases for a month (within the next 3-4 months) how do you stop it coming from overseas? It would require no travel for any reason - business, diplomatic, trade, shipping, compassionate reasons etc and of course definitely no tourism. It also creates huge problems for exports and imports because all of those require shipping or flight crews.

I guess you could try to isolate every bona fide traveller and crew member for 14 days before they step outside the airport/seaport but how realistic and practical is that? .. you can see where this is going. We would have to remain a totally isolated nation for a very long time.

WRT the Spanish flu, a couple of days ago I posted a whole lot of differences (and some similarities) between then and now, including the improvement in health care and living standards you mention. There's still a lot that can be learned, regardless of those differences, like why a flu spontaneously becomes less (or more) lethal over time.

Anyway recent similar epidemics have lasted around the same time so it’s not just the Spanish flu. Expect this one to be at its most virulent for 15-24 months.
 
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LittleG

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Nov 18, 2015
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Assuming for a moment the very unlikely prospect of us having no cases for a month (within the next 3-4 months) how do you stop it coming from overseas? It would require no travel for any reason - business, diplomatic, trade, shipping, compassionate reasons etc and of course definitely no tourism. It also creates huge problems for exports and imports because all of those require shipping or flight crews.

I guess you could try to isolate every bona fide traveller and crew member for 14 days before they step outside the airport/seaport but how realistic and practical is that? .. you can see where this is going. We would have to remain a totally isolated nation for a very long time.

WRT the Spanish flu, a couple of days ago I posted a whole lot of differences (and some similarities) between then and now, including the improvement in health care and living standards you mention. There's still a lot that can be learned, regardless of those differences, like why a flu spontaneously becomes less (or more) lethal over time.

Anyway recent similar epidemics have lasted
around the same time so it’s not just the Spanish flu. Expect this one to be at its most virulent for 15-24 months.

14 day quarantine on arrival will need to be around for some destinations for a few years unless a good treatment becomes available. Many regions may be ‘do not travel’ for a few years, particularly in the third world.
 
trade, shipping,

At this stage there has never been a ban for movement of goods anywhere.
The logistics issue that we are currently seeing is due to not having people to move the goods.
70%+ of the goods that come in via air freight are on passenger planes (the company I work for has stock stuck in various airports around the world)
Air freight prices have also gone up a minimum of 5 times normal rates.
This has meant goods are being transferred to Ocean freight and this has caused a lack of available containers.

All ships are now required to have been at sea for at least 14 days before being allowed into port (there are probably further checks & restrictions being implemented)

There are certainly ongoing logistics problems that need to be solved but this shouldn't be a major ongoing issue.
 
Don't know how this graph of new cases in Australia works as cases in Vic yesterday were 600 odd up from 500 odd but hopefully its a good trend?
"Interpret the most recently reported new cases shown in the graph with caution as there can be delays in reporting."

1585439114778.png
 
14 day quarantine on arrival will need to be around for some destinations for a few years unless a good treatment becomes available. Many regions may be ‘do not travel’ for a few years, particularly in the third world.
Hopefully early detection testing will speed up - wouldn’t be worth going anywhere if you have to waste 14 days of your holiday locked up. Tourism will never get back on its feet at that rate. Mind you, unrestrained tourism has been detrimental to many destinations, eg Venice
 
Don't know how this graph of new cases in Australia works as cases in Vic yesterday were 600 odd up from 500 odd but hopefully its a good trend?
"Interpret the most recently reported new cases shown in the graph with caution as there can be delays in reporting."

View attachment 848724

unfortunately we were at 3640 cases last night - a rise of 460 cases yesterday
 
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Don't know how this graph of new cases in Australia works as cases in Vic yesterday were 600 odd up from 500 odd but hopefully its a good trend?
"Interpret the most recently reported new cases shown in the graph with caution as there can be delays in reporting."

View attachment 848724
Source?
This seems to have different raw data to the ABC chart (I can't copy/paste it here but there's a link below). I suspect the last day (200 new cases) was only a partial total. As TTR said there was a new record of 460 cases yesterday, highlighted by Victoria reporting twice the average of its previous seven days.

Some of the difference in reporting new cases may well be due to increased testing, not necessarily just an increasing rate of infection. I reckon it's a bit of both.

 
l

Source?
This seems to have different raw data to the ABC chart (I can't copy/paste it here but there's a link below). I suspect the last day (200 new cases) was only a partial total. As TTR said there was a new record of 460 cases yesterday, highlighted by Victoria reporting twice the average of its previous seven days.

Some of the difference in reporting new cases may well be due to increased testing, not necessarily just an increasing rate of infection. I reckon it's a bit of both.

 
Mar 15, 2012
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All ships are now required to have been at sea for at least 14 days before being allowed into port (there are probably further checks & restrictions being implemented)
Are you sure, or is this new?

On March 18 the Queensland government put in place a 14 day quarantine period for all sea freight that had left an international port since March 15 (with a few exemptions such as those coming from NZ, Singapore, PNG, and livestock carriers), which prevented any cargo ship from entering port within this time (quarantine period is served starting from the time of departure of previous port). Given the huge distruptions, since March 23 they introduced a 'two port policy' - meaning this doesn't apply to Brisbane, although it remains in place for other QLD ports.

The two port policy essentially means that cargo ships can unload in Brisbane but all on board can't leave the ship. I believe there's still some restrictions for freight coming into Brisbane within 14 days from China and South Korea.

As far as I'm aware no such measures have been put in place by any other state or territory. That of course may change over coming days and weeks.
 
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