Is this an April 1st thing or fact?
Racing April Daily Thread - Racing > Rugbaleeg
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iluvparis
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- Apr 1, 2005
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Fact - rain - don't panic
Anyone heard a track rating for Randwick? Presumably must be at least in the Soft range. BoM guessing up to 8mm and 10mm in the next 2 days, so a good track seems highly unlikely on Saturday.
iluvparis
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FWIW Brad Davidson (who is a quality tipster in NSW) has done his form based on a Heavy 8. It's Soft 6 now. I wouldn't be doing form for anything better than that
How the * are you meant to pick anything anywhere today. Bring on Ascot
Time to sack it.
- Jul 23, 2010
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hard to watch appalachian at murray bridge
Cleaned out the accs last week thinking we were history. Reloaded BF for last weekend and now topped up a couple of corps. I think even if we go it will be state by state so should have some action for a little while
Yeah, not touching it at those odds.
- Sep 4, 2013
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Good question. I know punters has a strong database for stats but not sure if this is covered. FallingLiefs could be your man though
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Nice aggressive market from TAB
192%
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Early thoughts on Randwick
R4. Fascino
R5. Gallic Chieftan
R6. Larimer Street
R7. Quick Thinker
R8. Pierata & Loving Gaby
R9. Melody Belle - will back Mr Quickie at odds
R4. Fascino
R5. Gallic Chieftan
R6. Larimer Street
R7. Quick Thinker
R8. Pierata & Loving Gaby
R9. Melody Belle - will back Mr Quickie at odds
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bloody good meeting at M/Ville Saturday.
R4 - Zoushine
R6 - Roccabascerana... loves it wet
R7 - Dalasan... obvious bet here but $2 a bit short for me.
Playoffs and Selica good chances at the odds.
Selica was solid last start at the Valley and looks like the extra 200m will suit and looks about to peak
Playoffs done nothing wrong since being gelded.
R8 - Wings of Pastrami
R9 - Garner... with a watch on where Parsifal runs (dual nominated)
R4 - Zoushine
R6 - Roccabascerana... loves it wet
R7 - Dalasan... obvious bet here but $2 a bit short for me.
Playoffs and Selica good chances at the odds.
Selica was solid last start at the Valley and looks like the extra 200m will suit and looks about to peak
Playoffs done nothing wrong since being gelded.
R8 - Wings of Pastrami
R9 - Garner... with a watch on where Parsifal runs (dual nominated)
- Jan 30, 2013
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Easiest free way is a bit clunky but I would be making a free account at Puntingform and using the "create system" tool. Input days last start and any additional thing you wanted to see results. Use 10% win rate as a benchmark and create sample size as big as possible, so +/- of 10% determines if negative or positive effect. 14% is an exceptional winrate over a large amount of data.
Tl;dr it’s a big positive effect on win rate under 7 days optimum 4. Don’t worry when something runs 20L last while it increases win % it increase average beaten margin for the horses that don’t cope.
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- Mar 17, 2014
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Ive actually done the opposite. I have closed them all except TAB for the exotics and bonuses and Betfair for the laying and the longshots and capped both at $300 per week, its amazing how much you can lose when you are bored at home and there is nothing to do and you get into frustrated mode! punting is the biggest mindgame there is, if you dont you can go broke very very quickly
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It’s also just one of those things that is a signal of intent from trainers/connections. It’s also something that has increased significance with certain stables. The only thing I would say is it has possibly become overbet in general so there isn’t necessarily always an edge in the market.
iluvparis
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I'd be lest trustworthy of any numbers right now anyway as trainers are just going to try and run the living s**t out of their horses to get runs in before everything shut downs. Doubly so with the field size restrictions coming in.
iluvparis
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Had forgotten how dominant this was
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I cleaned out all the minnow books leaving the major fixed odd bookies expecting it but now that I am chasing top tote I have to go back to those small ones where I can still get it for the time being.
Just have to keep the balance small which shouldn't be hard given my bets.
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4 horse race at Launny yesterday
75% Market
Golden age for those betting in Tas, WA, WLD and SA if you can get best tote somewhere just no volume to keep the big guys interested in leveling the totes.
Won't be around for much longer. VIC/NSW still only shaving a couple percent off long term average around 107%.
75% Market
Golden age for those betting in Tas, WA, WLD and SA if you can get best tote somewhere just no volume to keep the big guys interested in leveling the totes.
Won't be around for much longer. VIC/NSW still only shaving a couple percent off long term average around 107%.
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