Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. Part 2 * CONTINUED ABUSE WILL NOT BE TOLERATED *

[Chief]

Australian Coronavirus Stats

Latest COVID-19 stats from Australia.

www.bigfooty.com

 

[kreglze]

If lockdown and draconian social distancing measures go on for another 12 to 18 months I can picture many people getting very restless and law and order becoming a problem. Interesting times ahead.

We would have to start counting the suicide rate next to the actual deaths from the virus which is an absolutely heartbreaking thing to imagine.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I don't think there will be a vaccine. This 18 months everyone talks about is like the perfect, dream scenario where everything goes smoothly and is rushed through without a single problem or side effect. Apparently this never happens in real life. 18 months is just what they are telling us so people feel like they have a light at the end of the tunnel

An effective treatment might allow some relaxations of the measures.

 

[cookie33]

The Deputy Chief Medical Officer just said again, no more than 5 minutes ago: “I don’t think we can eliminate the virus without a vaccine, no.”

So what is everyone's proposed solution? Herd immunity via 60% of the population becoming infected and recovering, or a lockdown of the country for 18 months until a vaccine is available and widely distributed?

The antiviral that destroys the virus is the most likely outcome, the human trials of multiple antivirals that we are all aware of are very promising and will be pushed through by government if testing continues to provide results.

 

[owen87]

H1N1 (swine flu) took 9 months from initial epidemic to release of the vaccine. It can be done and I suspect given how serious this is that the world is throwing everything at it on another magnitude compared to swine flu.

Flu vaccines are very common though, you'd think that would have been a much more advanced starting point than we have here given we haven't got a vaccine for the common cold, SARS or MERS.

 

[Coconut_twirl]

The FDA rushed approval for that malaria drug to treat coronovirus in USA for hospitals even though there is no evidence that they work. That tells me straight away they are very desperate.

 

[10571z]

I don't think there will be a vaccine. This 18 months everyone talks about is like the perfect, dream scenario where everything goes smoothly and is rushed through without a single problem or side effect. Apparently this never happens in real life. 18 months is just what they are telling us so people feel like they have a light at the end of the tunnel

There will be one. It’s a good virus to be able to get one due to it not mutating to often, with every nation working on it it’ll happen

 

[RudyBlue]

An effective treatment might allow some relaxations of the measures.

The science on this is moving incredibly quickly

 

[RudyBlue]

I don't think there will be a vaccine. This 18 months everyone talks about is like the perfect, dream scenario where everything goes smoothly and is rushed through without a single problem or side effect. Apparently this never happens in real life. 18 months is just what they are telling us so people feel like they have a light at the end of the tunnel

J&J targeting early 2021

Johnson & Johnson sets ambitious Covid-19 vaccine target

US pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson (J&J) has teamed up with a government office to commit more than US$1 billion (AUD$1.62 billion) for research, develop

www.businessnewsaus.com.au

As far as I know, this is the first I’ve heard of big pharma getting involved.

 

[Baird]

I Can't believe how devastating this virus has been to Australia boys

 

[ziad]

They are morons or think we don't do science at school.

Yes the virus can die. You stop transmission. It's not like covid-19 is intelligent which to find a place to cryogenically freeze itself and come back again. Once transmission stops it can't reproduce. Just like ALL life. Once you are the last of your species and can't replicate, that's it, extinction.

Of course that doesn't mean other countries won't have it. You can eradicate it from our island and put measures in place for quarantine until a vaccine is achieved.

High school served you well.

 

[boncer34]

I liken it to people who play texas hold-em with bad starting hands like 6,8' offsuit or playing A9 or A10 into a raise. Sure you might get lucky and win but overall it's a bad strategy and lose in the long run.

Just because the results for now are good doesn't mean this is the best strategy.

Nearly everyone here was calling us alarmists saying Italy was an outlier. Now Italy has become the norm and Australia is an outlier. But we haven't followed the same models as South Korea or Singapore.

So like the poker anology sometimes you play bad hands but you still get lucky. But luck will eventually run out. Our leaders are suffering confirmation bias just like they did in Spain and now in the US. That's what you have to look at. They're not changing their strategy unless they start to run out of more chips to play with. Then there hands will be forced and they will have to go all in. Don't say we didn't warn you. We were never bluffing.

Just to clarify even if the strategy is working now despite you telling us it would never work it's not proof that maybe you're not all knowing and could be wrong?

And we weren't saying Italy was an outlier. We were saying Italy was worst case at the time and we wouldn't automatically end up at that level because we weren't tracking like Italy despite the alarmist doom prophets telling us we were mere days away from tens of thousands of cases and hundreds of deaths.

 

[Max zero]

https://img-prod.tgcom24.mediaset.it/images/2020/02/16/114720192-5eb8307f-017c-4075-a697-348628da0204.pdf

A report by Chinese scientists about the possible source of the Virus. Read it its not long and fairly straightforward.

Basically the bat the is suspected to be the carrier lives over 900k from the Wet Market and locals have confirmed it is not sold there. It is however used in the two Bio lab research centres within a few kilometers of the Wet Market.

 

[BigPond101]

This saturday will be 2 weeks since the panic mongers started saying "We are 2 weeks behind Italy, just wait and see how bad its going to be"

When we dont have a thousand people dropping dead this weekend lets see if they acknowledge their hyperbole or are they going to spend the next 18 months saying... "Just two more weeks! Just two more weeks and we are all going to be dead, wait and see!"

 

[Thrawn]

This saturday will be 2 weeks since the panic mongers started saying "We are 2 weeks behind Italy, just wait and see how bad its going to be"

When we dont have a thousand people dropping dead this weekend lets see if they acknowledge their hyperbole or are they going to spend the next 18 months saying... "Just two more weeks! Just two more weeks and we are all going to be dead, wait and see!"

Couldn't your alias have thought of a better, less boring name?

 

[BigPond101]

Couldn't your alias have thought of a better, less boring name?

I didnt want to put too much effort into it

 

[Roby]

This saturday will be 2 weeks since the panic mongers started saying "We are 2 weeks behind Italy, just wait and see how bad its going to be"

When we dont have a thousand people dropping dead this weekend lets see if they acknowledge their hyperbole or are they going to spend the next 18 months saying... "Just two more weeks! Just two more weeks and we are all going to be dead, wait and see!"

Can you quote or screengrab one person that has said this besides you?

 

[Gavin Excell]

I don't think there will be a vaccine. This 18 months everyone talks about is like the perfect, dream scenario where everything goes smoothly and is rushed through without a single problem or side effect. Apparently this never happens in real life. 18 months is just what they are telling us so people feel like they have a light at the end of the tunnel

I'm extremely confident that there will (eventually) be a vaccine

 

[BigPond101]

Can you quote or screengrab one person that has said this besides you?

Yes, I will do it later just for you

 

[Purple Suit]

I liken it to people who play texas hold-em with bad starting hands like 6,8' offsuit or playing A9 or A10 into a raise. Sure you might get lucky and win but overall it's a bad strategy and lose in the long run.

Just because the results for now are good doesn't mean this is the best strategy.

Nearly everyone here was calling us alarmists saying Italy was an outlier. Now Italy has become the norm and Australia is an outlier. But we haven't followed the same models as South Korea or Singapore.

So like the poker anology sometimes you play bad hands but you still get lucky. But luck will eventually run out. Our leaders are suffering confirmation bias just like they did in Spain and now in the US. That's what you have to look at. They're not changing their strategy unless they start to run out of more chips to play with. Then there hands will be forced and they will have to go all in. Don't say we didn't warn you. We were never bluffing.

While we got lucky, there must be some other factors at play that actually mean Italy is not going to happen in every country. We certainly didn't lock down quick so maybe weather and other factors will make the virus less contagious than first expected. The sky is falling people should eventually get the message or just hold out for another two weeks.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

Flu vaccines are very common though, you'd think that would have been a much more advanced starting point than we have here given we haven't got a vaccine for the common cold, SARS or MERS.

SARS vaccines were in trial but went no further because by that point there was little further call. Given this virus is related to SARS, itself a coronavirus, I imagine (with no background) those would be the starting points if the new virus is related closely enough.
Apparently eighteen months would require significant fast-tracking, even assuming a vaccine went to human trial soon. Fast-tracking seems quite possible in some places.

 

[cookie33]

Health minister Greg Hunt has just said live on ACA that he has just got off the phone with an international supplier of hydroxychloroquine for a mass production for Australia. He has said that the overwhelming evidence is that this drug can defeat Covid19 and those in hospitals will have the option to have it prescribed by the doctor.

What does this mean? Hunt would not say this on NTV if he wasn’t extremely confident.

His opening statement in the interview was actually “this is actually breaking news”.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

While we got lucky, there must be some other factors at play that actually mean Italy is not going to happen in every country. We certainly didn't lock down quick so maybe weather and other factors will make the virus less contagious than first expected. The sky is falling people should eventually get the message or just hold out for another two weeks.

Our test will be when the flu season hits, and people potentially get the double. It would have been in the flu season in northern Italy whenthings kicked off; add to that the smoking rates, higher density living, and simply not being prepared because it had only been a Chinese thing (at any noteable level) until then. Does anyone know if they even had test kits until the outbreak was advanced?

We haven't been particularly fast, but once we finally started we have taken measures (haphazrd and piecemeal, with some failures such as cruise ships and crowding everyone together at sydney airport immigration). Italy was locking down regions when it was far too late, with nothing much before that.

 

[Skull Face]

Our test will be when the flu season hits, and people potentially get the double. It would have been in the flu season in northern Italy whenthings kicked off; add to that the smoking rates, higher density living, and simply not being prepared because it had only been a Chinese thing (at any noteable level) until then. Does anyone know if they even had test kits until the outbreak was advanced?

We haven't been particularly fast, but once we finally started we have taken measures (haphazrd and piecemeal, with some failures such as cruise ships and crowding everyone together at sydney airport immigration). Italy was locking down regions when it was far too late, with nothing much before that.

Will we even have a flu season this year if this lockdown is still going?

If this is controlling the covid infection rates and the flu is less infectious surely stuff all people will have the flu this winter.

 

[theyellowsash]

I don't think there will be a vaccine. This 18 months everyone talks about is like the perfect, dream scenario where everything goes smoothly and is rushed through without a single problem or side effect. Apparently this never happens in real life. 18 months is just what they are telling us so people feel like they have a light at the end of the tunnel

They were nearly complete with a vaccine for sars previously but stopped because it died down, so they're not starting from zero. That sure looks like a stupidly short sighted decision now doesn't it, considering this is already the 4th sars/coronavirus outbreak this century. I bet they won't be doing that again.

They're already testing multiple vaccines and im sure it's similar enough to other previous viruses that they can do it. Once they've done it once it will be easier to adapt to follow up strains just like the flu.

 

[Proper Gander]

Will we even have a flu season this year if this lockdown is still going?

If this is controlling the covid infection rates and the flu is less infectious surely stuff all people will have the flu this winter.

Would assume social distancing would reduce contact with flu virus types also, since they are transmitted in the same manner.

Two things are annoying to me about this. Firstly I got a bad flu thing in mid February - well outside your regular flu season - and if it had waited a month or so before deciding to find me, I would have been broadly isolating and would have missed it this year. Secondly, it’s not impossible that I actually had coronavirus and not the flu. In which case I could have antibodies all ready to go and I could figure out a way to open a pub for the post-covid population to drink themselves stupid and chuck toilet rolls around. But in the absence of a readily available antibody test I’m just stuck in this room with ******* Skype and a shitload of pasta